Leading The Antifragile Tribe
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Talk presented by Rodrigo Yoshima at Lean Kanban North America 2017 in Washington DC.
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Leading The Antifragile Tribe
- 1. Aspercom @rodrigoy LEAN KANBANLEAN KANBAN NORTH AMERICA 2017NORTH AMERICA 2017 Rodrigo Yoshima, AKT, KCP Leading theLeading the Antifragile TribeAntifragile Tribe
- 3. Aspercom @rodrigoy ! This is AirTech... Commited Market Research Service DeliveredDesign Checking
- 4. Aspercom @rodrigoy Backlog Análise Implementação Lets talk about changes... 6 possible improvements: Service DeliveredChecking
- 5. Aspercom @rodrigoy Backlog Análise Implementação Lets talk about changes... 6 possible improvements: 1. Prioritize 2. Improve quality before the bottleneck 3. Cross-train people 4. Remove “Checking” 5. Create a new work item type 6. Hire people (more...) Service DeliveredChecking
- 6. Aspercom @rodrigoy What are the tribal impacts of (4) simply get rid of checking? !!! Commited Market Research Service DeliveredDesign Checking
- 7. Aspercom @rodrigoy What are the tribal impacts of (2) improve quality before the bottleneck? !!! Commited Market Research Service DeliveredDesign Checking
- 8. Aspercom @rodrigoy X What are the tribal impacts of (5) create a new work item type that bypass “Checking Commited Market Research Service DeliveredDesign Checking
- 9. Aspercom @rodrigoy “Any strategy with optionality is like a road with many exits.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- 12. Aspercom @rodrigoy Antifragile Leader LessonsAntifragile Leader Lessons I. Look for Optionality
- 13. Aspercom @rodrigoy Backlog Análise Implementação Cool, but you need to decide... 6 possible improvements: 1. Prioritize 2. Improve quality before the bottleneck 3. Cross-train people 4. Remove “Checking” 5. Create a new work item type 6. Hire people (more...) Service DeliveredChecking
- 14. Aspercom @rodrigoy Backlog Análise Implementação Cool, but you need to decide... 6 possible improvements: 1. Prioritize 2. Improve quality before the bottleneck 3. Cross-train people 4. Remove “Checking” 5. Create a new work item type 6. Hire people (more...) Service DeliveredChecking What would YOU DO?
- 15. Aspercom @rodrigoy How did I decide to go on Lean Kanban Brazil? ● Kanban is Trending ● Last LKSA was 2013 ● David going sabbatical ● Diversification ● Grow the Market
- 16. Aspercom @rodrigoy ● Kanban is trending ● Last LKSA was 2013 ● David going sabbatical ● Diversification ● Grow the Market ● Economical crisis ● High competition ● Pressure on prices ● High cost, some in US$ ● Agile still dominant How did I decide to go on Lean Kanban Brazil?
- 17. Aspercom @rodrigoy ● Kanban is trending ● Last LKSA was 2013 ● David going sabbatical ● Diversification ● Grow the Market ● Economical crisis ● High competition ● Pressure on prices ● High cost, some in US$ ● Agile still dominant How did I decide to go on Lean Kanban Brazil? I've got no idea if people are interested, how the Economy will behave or how competitors will move... ANYWAY, THE SUCCESS OF THE CONFERENCE DEPENDS ON TWO THINGS: NUMBER OF ATTENDEES AND PRICE
- 18. Aspercom @rodrigoy Lean Kanban Brazil's asymmetry... Addressing the risks: Optionality (3 offers) and price sensibility
- 19. Aspercom @rodrigoy Asymmetries: A new view about risks... ● Outcomes: utility of x is non-linear! (economies of scale) ● LKBR17 is a convex strategy (limited downside and upside virtually unlimited) ● Would you risk $7.000 to $28.000 to win something from $25.000 to $125.000?
- 20. Aspercom @rodrigoy Asymmetries: It's not a timeline! ● Doing nothing is robust about the LKBR17, no downside / upside ● If I opt in I'll need to work to stay out of the left tail. ● What can I do to stay out of the downside tail? ● The LKBR17 is complex domain – an Antifragile strategy!!! You start HERE...
- 21. Aspercom @rodrigoy Asymmetries are dynamic! ● New information arising from the battle field changes the asymmetry ● The first probes validated the public interest: 389 people opted in for the conference mailing list on the first 10 days ● Underestimated the costs by 15% - downside worsen / upside perspectives improved I'm here right now
- 24. Aspercom @rodrigoy Kaizen Game Delivery PoliciesKaizen Game Delivery Policies https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ3MyP8yRXM 1. Allocate one developer 2. Every 3 days
- 25. Kaizen Game Delivery Policies: When I ask the students... One man-day: $80
- 26. Kaizen Game Delivery Policies: When I ask the students... One man-day: $80 Delay Cost: $600 per day
- 27. Aspercom @rodrigoy Kaizen Game Delivery Policies I. One person coordinates the deploy (1-day man) II. Deploy window each 3 days
- 28. Aspercom @rodrigoy Kaizen Game Delivery Policies I. One person coordinates the deploy (1-day man) II. Deploy window each 3 days HANDLE WITH CARE
- 29. Aspercom @rodrigoy Economical Impacts of WIP Source: Impacts of Agile Quantified – Rally Software
- 30. Aspercom @rodrigoy Backlog Análise Implementação Cool, but you need to decide... 6 possible improvements: 1. Prioritize 2. Improve quality before the bottleneck 3. Cross-train people 4. Remove “Checking” 5. Create a new work item type 6. Hire people (more...) Service DeliveredChecking What would YOU DO?
- 31. Aspercom @rodrigoy About AirTech... COMPLACENCY (you are here) ACCESS THIS SPREADSHEET AT HTTP://ASPERCOM.COM/INTERNATIONA
- 32. Aspercom @rodrigoy ““The answer to theThe answer to the question 'what do youquestion 'what do you do in a world youdo in a world you don’t understand?' is,don’t understand?' is, simply, work on thesimply, work on the undesirable states ofundesirable states of f(x).”f(x).” Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb
- 33. Aspercom @rodrigoy TINKERING “trial and (small) error” #antifragile
- 34. Aspercom @rodrigoy Antifragile Leader LessonsAntifragile Leader Lessons I. Look for Optionality II. Take advantage of Asymmetries
- 35. Aspercom @rodrigoy National Museum of Natural History Washington DC
- 36. Aspercom @rodrigoy FRAGILEFRAGILE RESILIENTRESILIENTROBUSTROBUST ANTIFRAGIANTIFRAGI LELE “STARTUPS” - Unconstrained - Negative Cash Flow - No Fit for Purpose “BREAK- EVEN” - Low Constraints - Cash Flow: Ups and Downs - Volatile Fit for Purpose “STABLISHED BUSINESS” - Growing Constraints - Steady Cash Flow - Good Fit for Purpose “INNOVATING” - Low Constraints - Convex outcomes - Discovering new purposes - Imposed Variability
- 38. Aspercom @rodrigoy Taller's Unified Flow Next Tickets Business Analysis DeliveredImplementation User Acceptance Project D 4 10 5 Project C Project B Project A ● Challenging “Teams”: Super Tribe ● Low coordination costs ● Improved impacts of variability
- 39. Aspercom @rodrigoy Crafter's: Positioning / Pivot to Produ ● Extremely Robust ● Positioning as a Premium Service ● Creating Products / Extremistan
- 40. Aspercom @rodrigoy “Great leadership ensures just enough insecurity to keep innovation and risk taking happening at the fore white it controls the comfort that leads to backstabbing and infighting” David J. Anderson
- 41. Aspercom @rodrigoy Antifragile Leader LessonsAntifragile Leader Lessons I. Look for Optionality II. Take advantage of Asymmetries III. Imposes Variation
- 42. Aspercom @rodrigoy KANBAN IS “VIA NEGATIVA” #antifragile
- 43. Aspercom @rodrigoy ““CharlatansCharlatans have nothinghave nothing but positivebut positive rules.”rules.” Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb
- 45. AVOID THE FASHION INDUSTRY
- 46. things Tribal Behavior: 100.000 years Complexity: 14.000.000.000 years Hierarchy: 100.000 years Win-win relationship: 40.000 years Probabilistic Forecast: 90 years Flow Theory: 60 years
- 47. Aspercom @rodrigoy Antifragile Leader LessonsAntifragile Leader Lessons I. Look for Optionality II. Take advantage of Asymmetries III.Imposes Variation IV. Via Negativa: Not guided by Ideologies
- 48. Aspercom @rodrigoy Why Kanban? Kanban helps the Antifragile Tribe Leader: 1. Enables opcionality 2. Provides information to measure asymmetries 3. Allows imposed variation 4. Kanban is Via Negativa - Ideology Free
- 50. Aspercom @rodrigoy Matheus Marzochi #noTraining #noConsultant #noExperience
- 51. Aspercom @rodrigoy Matheus Marzochi #noTraining #noConsultant #noExperience WIP LIMITS
- 52. Aspercom @rodrigoy Obrigado!Obrigado! Rodrigo Yoshima Slides and Spreadsheet: http://aspercom.com/international
Editor's Notes
- Trazendo para as empresas: - Frágil: Alguém já trabalhou em empresa pequena. Você que fazia o cafezinho quando tinha? Umas 5 pessoas? - Resiliente: Empresas crescendo, constantemente em crises… Leva porrada mas não cai. Pega dinheiro no banco. Faz negócios com clientes ruins. Há uma romantização da resiliência. Exemplo: Rocky Balboa. - Robusto: Empresas saem da resiliência adotando processos. Na robutez o negócio cresce, há oportunidade de investimento. Dá pra fazer festas maneiras. Muitos dos negócios que “estão bem na verdade são robustas."- Antifrágil: Pouquissimas empresas estão no Antifragil. É um ambiente onde as restrições são baixas novamente. A experimentação é constante e deliberadamente gestores colocam variabilidade para ter inovação, tirar do conforto.