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The Psychology of Biases
Why Some Folks Are Averse to
Better Development Practices
Stephen Ritchie
15-Apr-2014
Excella Consulting
Warm Up
• Three Clues
–Handouts
–Two Secret Clues
–Third Clue in the Slides
Excella Consulting
Warm Up
• Third clue:
– One word answer
– Begins with “H”
– Ends with “y”
• Once the question is asked, quickly write
down your one word answer.
• Stand up once you have the answer.
Excella Consulting
Warm Up
What one word best
describes how she was
feeling just before
Mary had a little lamb?
Excella Consulting
Warm Up
What are your answers?
Happy
Hungry
Hostility
Excella Consulting
Definition
Cognitive Bias
Own “subjective
reality” from their
perception of input
Excella Consulting
Personal Story
Excella Consulting
Personal Story
Excella Consulting
Cognitive Bias
Semmelweis
Reflex
Excella Consulting
Meet the man …
Dr. Semmelweis, M.D.
Obstetrician
Young
Vienna
1846
Excella Consulting
Problem: Childbed Fever
Excella Consulting
Mother’s Mortality Rate
Up To 30%
Semmelweis’ Hospital
Excella Consulting
Mother’s Morality Rate
More Moderate
7.5%
Neighboring Hospital
Excella Consulting
Scientific Method
Q: Why the difference?
Hypothesis
Experiment
Conclusion
Excella Consulting
Hypothesis
Between the
morgue…
Excella Consulting
Hypothesis
And the
delivery room…
Excella Consulting
Hypothesis
Disinfect!
Excella Consulting
Mother’s Mortality Rate
Mortality Rate Dropped
Under 1%
Semmelweis’ Results
Excella Consulting
Conclusion
Lack of Cleanliness
Caused
Death
Excella Consulting
Headline
1847: Physician
Makes Amazing Discovery
Easy to implement,
easily proven, and
clearly saves lives.
Excella Consulting
Why has nobody ever heard of him?
Dr. Semmelweis, M.D.
Who?
Semmel
Excella Consulting
Semmelweis’ Approach
Conventional
Wisdom
Challenged
Excella Consulting
Contemporaries’ Beliefs
Hippocrates4 Humours
Excella Consulting
Reaction
Rejection
Criticism
Scorn
Excella Consulting
Definition
Semmelweis Reflex
Reject new evidence
that contradicts
established beliefs
Excella Consulting
Preaching Heresy
Excella Consulting
Test-Driven Development
Test
CodeRefactor
Excella Consulting
Confound Your Logic, Mr. Spock!
Logical
Sequential
Rational
Analytical
Excella Consulting
No Silver Bullet
Fault
Defect
Wrong
Solution
Avoid
Excella Consulting
Focus On The Pain
Pain Points
Adaptations
Experiments
Results Outcomes
Excella Consulting
Doctor McDreamy
Understanding
Gentle
Helpful
Intuitive
Patient
Excella Consulting
Epilogue
So, whatever
became of
Dr. Semmelweis?
Excella Consulting
Lured To An Asylum …
Excella Consulting
Put in a straightjacket …
Excella Consulting
Honored Posthumously
Excella Consulting
Don’t Be Like Semmelweis
Insistence
Avoid:
Obsession
Arrogance
Excella Consulting
Relax, Have Fun Wit It
Excella Consulting
Cognitive Bias
Normalcy
Bias
Excella Consulting
Tornado Alley
Excella Consulting
How many tornado shelters in “Tornado Alley”?
Oklahoma
Percentage of homes
with storm shelters?
Excella Consulting
Surprisingly
In the Oklahoma City
area, perhaps 10 to 20
percent of homes have
some kind of formal
shelter.
Most houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013
Excella Consulting
Surprisingly
“Unfortunately, people prefer
homes with swimming pools
rather than storm shelters,”
said Oklahoma State
Representative Joe Dorman
Most houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013
Excella Consulting
Definition
Normalcy Bias
Underestimate both
the possibility and
effects of a disaster
Excella Consulting
With a name like Target, are we surprised?
Excella Consulting
Security Development Lifecycle
Security & Privacy
Risk Assessments
Static Analysis
Incident Response
Fuzz Testing
Excella Consulting
SDL Implementation
Excella Consulting
Six Sigma
Excella Consulting
Cognitive Bias
Ambiguity
Effect
Excella Consulting
OCR
Excella Consulting
Punch Card
Excella Consulting
Tried and True
“… it would be excessively
costly to IBM to quickly
introduce more modern
machinery using electronics and
magnetic tape instead of relays
and punched cards.”
From Tabulators to Early Computers in the U.S. Life Insurance Industry: Co-evolution and Continuities, JoAnne
Yates, October 1993, CCS WP #153, Sloan School WP #3618-93
Excella Consulting
Definition
Ambiguity Effect
Favor an option where
the outcome is known
over one where the
outcome is unknown
Excella Consulting
Exercise
• On your index card
• Write 3 specific examples
• Organizations pick development patterns
and practices that are
– “old and adequate” over “new and better”
– “tried and true” over “possibly better”
– “always done it” over “unprecedented”
Excella Consulting
Why did we decide to go with …
Automated Testing
Manual Testing
over
Excella Consulting
Why did we decide to go with …
Automated Builds
Manual Builds
over
Excella Consulting
Why did we decide to go with …
Scripts
Manual
Configuration
over
Excella Consulting
Why did we decide to go with …
Continuous
Integration
Final Integration
over
Excella Consulting
Knowledge, Skill, and Attitude
What to do
Barriers
How to do it
Why to do it
Excella Consulting
Training, Coaching, and Practice
Short tutorial
Trial period
Training course
Measure value
Embed a coach
Excella Consulting
Cognitive Bias
Dunning-
Kruger Effect
Excella Consulting
Definition
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Some people can wildly
overestimate their
relative competence
Excella Consulting
I want to be a lion
tamer!
Monty Python - Vocational Guidance Counselor sketch
http://youtu.be/4h-wVe9a6rQ?t=1m6s
Excella Consulting
Definition
Dunning-Kruger Effect
People with true ability
can tend to
underestimate their
relative competence
Excella Consulting
Let’s switch to NoSQL
Excella Consulting
Uninitiated
Easy concept
Inflated experts
Not yet challenged
Lack experience
Excella Consulting
Knowledge Transfer, Experience, and Expertise
Patience & wisdom
Proof-of-concept
Knowledge transfer
Know-how
Experience
Excella Consulting
We are all individuals. (I’m not!)
“In a very real sense there is
no such thing as
organizational behavior.
There is only individual
behavior. Everything else
flows out of that.”
Principle-Centered Leadership, Stephen Covey
Excella Consulting
• Stephen Ritchie
• Excella Consulting
– .NET developer
– “Best Practices”
– Training agile eng
– ScrumMaster/coach
• stephen.ritchie@excella.com
• http://www.linkedin.com/in/sri
tchie
• @ruthlesshelp
• Organizer DC Alt.NET
Shameless Self Promotion
http://amzn.to/v8TD8E

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UiPath Platform: The Backend Engine Powering Your Automation - Session 1
 

The Psychology of Biases

Editor's Notes

  1. Tonight I’m going to:-- Describe the Semmelweis Reflex-- And explain to you how it might impact you,-- And also, show you some ways to cope with it,-- Hopefully, you’ll learn how to avoid it.
  2. First, let’s meet Dr. SemmelweisHe was a young physician, delivering babies in Austria, some one hundred and fifty years ago
  3. At that time, the maternity wards were ravaged by a disease, which was known as childbed fever
  4. Some 30% of the patients died from this disease
  5. Nearby, another maternity ward had much lower rates
  6. Dr. Semmelweis wanted to understand the difference.He decided to apply the scientific method
  7. His educatedguess was:After you perform an autopsy …
  8. And, before you deliver a baby …
  9. Scrub your hands.This seems to prevent the spread of the disease.
  10. His experiments worked!Again.And Again.
  11. Semmelweis drew a startling conclusion.Physicians were transmitting this disease.
  12. You can just imagine the headlines in those days.
  13. Sadly, very few people know anything about Dr. Semmelweis.But why not?
  14. He did the unthinkable.He contradicted established beliefs.
  15. First, blood is one of the 4 humours. -- Disease is transmitted by bad smells.Second, the Hippocratic Oath. -- Doctors do not harm their patients.
  16. So, how did his fellow physicians react to Dr. Semmelweis?With Contempt
  17. Let’s define the Semmelweis Reflex:A tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts Established wisdom, beliefs, or understanding.Okay. How is any of this relevant to you?
  18. As a consultant, you may find yourself challenging conventional wisdom.For example, agile makes some BOLD assertions:
  19. Focus on getting people to work well together.Less process
  20. And some things you do …Make things worse!
  21. You’ve got to STOP being right all the time.
  22. Here are some things to focus on.Work with the client …Focusing on these thingshelp you cope with the reflex.Or avoid it in the first place.
  23. Be more like Dr. McDreamy.Have a great bedside manner.
  24. So, whatever happened to Dr. Semmelweis.-- He turned every conversation to the topic of childbed fever-- Worse! He insisted that all instances of the disease could be traced back to only one single cause: a doctor’s lack of cleanliness-- Many were offended by his conclusion.-- Confident that he knew how to prevent death, he was extremely disturbed by all the needless human suffering.-- He became severely depressed
  25. He was lured to this insane asylum.
  26. He was put in a straightjacket, beaten, and died two weeks later …At the age of 47.
  27. Today, he is not forgotten.After all, he was right all along.
  28. If you don’t want to end up like Dr. Semmelweis,Don’t be an ass.
  29. Now you know what the Semmelweis Reflex is all about.It is a negativereaction to unconventional wisdom.You will encounter it because you bring new/original thoughts and ideas to the table.You cope with it by not attacking; possess inner strengthYou overcome it by being patient; remain playful, remain calm.
  30. Here are some things to focus on.
  31. Here are some things to focus on.
  32. Here are some things to focus on.