Dynamic Decision Tools Catalog
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Energy and Climate – Dynamic Decision Tool Catalog and Community of Practice: Current implementations, Gap Analysis Open EI and energy.data.gov, Robert Bectel, DOE A panoply of data, models, visualizations, analyses, software and decision tools of all sort exist across the –Verse. The problem is that many of these are not accessible, transparent, “open”, distributable, mobile, location aware, up-to-date, or even licensed for use outside of their single use development environment. Developers of these solutions, whether they are a Government Agency, NGO, or other interested group insist on building their solution within their zone of control with visibility and access available only through their single destination site. OpenEI.org is an open source wiki media platform that leverages crowd sourcing to build an ecosystem for the transmission, storage, analysis and distribution of energy data and information. The system provides mapping and other visualization tools to transform that raw data into understanding. By building an open, crowd sourced catalog of highly interactive resources and an engaged community of solution providers, OpenEI and Data.gov bring powerful distribution engines for use by anyone. Capable of connecting to virtually any data or Content source and conveying that access to other destinations, they transform understanding and access to knowledge and resources which otherwise would be inaccessible or at best diffused across the –Verse in such a way as to be nearly impossible to find. This interactive conversation will focus on why we need to build open source, transparent and highly distributable solution sets; What value we can derive from the use of distribution accelerators like OpenEI and Data.Gov and; What the continued development of single destination sites based on the outdated theory of “If I build it they will come” means for those individuals, groups or Agencies attempting to assess the risks associated with energy related projects.
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Dynamic Decision Tools Catalog
- 1. Dynamic Decision Tools Catalog and Community of Practice Aka…Are you building Moai? by Robert Bectel US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy ESIP Energy and Climate Cluster Workshop January 4-5, 2012, Washington, DC 1 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 2. What we build today 1. What the continued development of single destination sites means for those individuals, groups or Agencies attempting to assess the risks associated with energy related projects. 2. Why we need to build open source, transparent and highly distributable solution sets; 3. What value we can derive from the use of online communities and distribution accelerators like OpenEI and Data.Gov. 2 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 3. What is a Moai and Where Exactly is Easter Island? From Washington Dulles airport Trip takes 18 hrs 24 min, produces 3.011 tons CO2e Airfares from $3,039 Its closest inhabited neighbor is Pitcairn Island, 2075km to the west, with fewer than 100 inhabitants. 3 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 4. What’s your budget? Rising Costs of Super Bowl Ad’s Does anyone have 1967 - 2010 $2.5 - $3 million for a Super Bowl ad? 4 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 5. Banner Ad’s are Cheap and Effective…Right? 5 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 6. What we need to build 1. What the continued development of single destination sites based on the outdated theory of “If I build it they will come” means for those individuals, groups or Agencies attempting to assess the risks associated with energy related projects. 2. Why we need to build open source, transparent and highly distributable solution sets; 3. What value we can derive from the use of online communities and distribution accelerators like OpenEI and Data.Gov. 6 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 7. OPEN SOURCE DEFINITION • Free Redistribution • Source Code • Derived Works • Integrity of the Author’s Source Code • No Discrimination Against Persons or Groups • No Discrimination Against Fields of Endeavor • Distribution of License • License Must Not be Specific to a Product • License Must Not Restrict Other Software • License Must be Technology Neutral Text Source: www.opensource.org/docs/osd Image Source: http://brajeshwar.com/2010/open-source-may-the-source-be-with-you/ 7 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 8. Mobile by the numbers…… • There are 5.3 billion mobile subscribers (that's 77 percent of the world’s population). * • Half a billion people accessed mobile Internet worldwide in 2009. * • Over 300,000 mobile apps have been developed in three years. Apps have been downloaded 10.9 billion times.* 1.2 billion apps were downloaded in the last week of December 2012** • Usage is expected to double within five years as mobile overtakes the PC as the most popular way to get on the Web* • Smart phone units sold will surpass PC units in 2012 – Morgan Stanley – June 2010* • Smartphone units sold actually surpassed PC units…in Q4 2010 – IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tracker – Jan 2011 -- 100 million units sold in Q4 2010 vs. 92 million PC’s. * Source: *mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools.latest-mobile-stats **http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16391730 Image source: http://www.bondgrp.com/blog/mobile-phones-amazing-growth/ 8 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 9. Where we need to build our Content 1. What the continued development of single destination sites based on the outdated theory of “If I build it they will come” means for those individuals, groups or Agencies attempting to assess the risks associated with energy related projects. 2. Why we need to build open source, transparent and highly distributable solution sets; 3. What value we can derive from the use of online communities and distribution accelerators like OpenEI and Data.Gov. 9 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 10. Facebook Statistics With over 500 million users, Facebook is now used by 1 in every 13 people on earth, with over 250 million of them (over 50%) who log in every day. The average user still has about 130 friends, but that should expand in 2011. Over 700 Billion minutes a month are spent on Facebook, 20 million applications are installed per day and over 250 million people interact with Facebook from outside the official website on a monthly basis, across 2 million websites. Over 200 million people access Facebook via their mobile phone. 48% of young people said they now get their news through Facebook. Meanwhile, in just 20 minutes on Facebook over 1 million links are shared, 2 million friend requests are accepted and almost 3 million messages are sent. Source: http://www.digitalbuzzblog.com/facebook-statistics-stats-facts-2011/ Source: http://xkcd.com/802/
- 11. 800 Datasets 15 Active Gateways 5 Apps/Gadgets 1,500 Maps 3,000 Registered Users 55,000 pages of content 359 data sets 5 mobile apps 34 maps 6 Challenges We need to build… Most Apps for knowledge people make Apps for dreaming Apps for learning AppsApps for home improvement for: Apps for assessment • communication Apps for measurement • Apps for business development play Apps to do your job • vanity Apps for builders Apps for scientists • function Apps for legislators Apps for job seekers Apps for investors Apps for analysts Apps for journalists
- 12. Build Less Moai NOT Open Source NOT Distributable NOT Understood Resource Intensive 12 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 13. And More Outriggers Open Source Highly Distributable Easy to Build Low Cost 13 13 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
- 14. How To Contact Me • Email: robert.bectel@ee.doe.gov • LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/rbectel • Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/rbectel • Phone: 202-586-9290 14 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
Editor's Notes
- Energy and Climate – Dynamic Decision Tool Catalog and Community of Practice: Current implementations, Gap AnalysisOpen EI and energy.data.gov, Robert Bectel, DOEA panoply of data, models, visualizations, analyses, software and decision tools of all sort exist across the –Verse. The problem is that many of these are not accessible, transparent, “open”, distributable, mobile, location aware, up-to-date, or even licensed for use outside of their single use development environment. Developers of these solutions, whether they are a Government Agency, NGO, or other interested group insist on building their solution within their zone of control with visibility and access available only through their single destination site. OpenEI.org is an open source wiki media platform that leverages crowd sourcing to build an ecosystem for the transmission, storage, analysis and distribution of energy data and information. The system provides mapping and other visualization tools to transform that raw data into understanding. By building an open, crowd sourced catalog of highly interactive resources and an engaged community of solution providers, OpenEI and Data.gov bring powerful distribution engines for use by anyone. Capable of connecting to virtually any data or Content source and conveying that access to other destinations, they transform understanding and access to knowledge and resources which otherwise would be inaccessible or at best diffused across the –Verse in such a way as to be nearly impossible to find. This interactive conversation will focus on why we need to build open source, transparent and highly distributable solution sets; What value we can derive from the use of distribution accelerators like OpenEI and Data.Gov and; What the continued development of single destination sites based on the outdated theory of “If I build it they will come” means for those individuals, groups or Agencies attempting to assess the risks associated with energy related projects.
- The history of Easter Island is rich and controversial. Its inhabitants have endured famines, epidemics, civil war, slave raids, colonialism, and near deforestation; its population declined precipitously more than once.Diamond suggested that cannibalism took place on Easter Island after the construction of the Moai contributed to environmental degradation when extreme deforestation destabilized an already precarious ecosystem.[25] Archeological record shows that, by the time of the initial settlement, the island was home to many species of trees, including at least three species which grew up to 50 feet or more: Paschalococos - possibly the largest palm trees in the world at the time, Alphitoniazizyphoides, and Elaeocarpusrarotongensis, as well as at least six species of native land birds. Barbara A. West wrote, "Sometime before the arrival of Europeans on Easter Island, the Rapanui experienced a tremendous upheaval in their social system brought about by a change in their island's ecology... By the time of European arrival in 1722, the island's population had dropped to 2,000 – 3,000 from a high of approximately 15,000 just a century earlier." [26] By that time, 21 species of trees and all species of land birds went extinct through some combination of overharvesting/overhunting, rat predation, and climate change, the island was largely deforested, and it did not have any trees more than 10 feet tall. Loss of large trees meant that residents were no longer able to build seaworthy vessels, significantly diminishing their fishing abilities. This was further exacerbated by the loss of land birds and the collapse in seabird populations. By the 18th century, residents of the island were largely sustained by farming, with domestic chickens as the primary source of protein.[27]
- 9.9 Million visitors to EERE.energy.govIn 2000 19 online startups bought expensive super bowl adds during super bowl 34Eight of those companies no longer existOnly one – E-trade – survived to have an ad during Super Bowl 45 The other survivors are…E-Trade (Multiple ads as sponsor of the halftime show.)Computer.comLastMinuteTravel.comKforce.comMicrostrategy.comOxygen.com (Actually, Oprah's first TV channel, but the ad told women to "log on")AutotraderBritannica.comWebMDMonster/HotJobs (In 1999 and 2000, they were separate companies with different. Now they've merged into one giant job site.)CNN Money 2011 North American Ad RatesLeaderboard728 x 90$118.65 /1000 impressionsRectangle336 x 280$133.35 Half Page Ad336 x 600$185.85 Super Vertical475 x 900$3*2011 Rates are based on Net cost, per thousand impressions. Rates may vary and are subject to change. Targeting premiums apply above and beyond these ratesf00.00
- 475.28 times more likely to survive a plane crash than click on a banner add112.50 times to sign up for and complete Navy Seal Training2.13 times more likely to get a full house in Poker
- A primer on “Why Open Source?”A development method for software that harnesses the power of distributed peer review and transparency of process is how it is often defined by The Open Source Initiative (OSI). This non-profit corporation was formed to educate about and advocate for the benefits of open source and to build bridges among different constituencies in the open-source community. The promise of open source is simply better quality, higher reliability, more flexibility, lower cost, and an end to predatory vendor lock-in.A Case Study: AndroidAndroid is an Open Source initiative started by Google and it aims to deliver software for mobile devices such as an operating system, middleware and key applications. Built to be truly open. it is based on the open Linux Kernel, utilizes a custom virtual machine designed to optimize memory and hardware resources in mobile systems. The advantage of Open Source is reflected in the speed of development and adoption of bleeding edge technologies. Within a short period of time, developers for the Android OS are flooding the market with their apps enabling it to set its sights on Apple’s iPhone OS with its rabid growth.Democracy guarantees equality of opportunityThe Android OS does not differentiate between core applications in the phone and third-party apps. Any application can be built to access the phone’s capabilities providing the end users a rich experience and service, thus allowing one to tailor make the phone for one’s requirements. I’m a visual wizard and I’d love to customize everything from the home screen and dialer to favorite applications. If third party apps are privy to such instruction sets, they can even instruct phones to do the same. The possibilities are endless. For example, a developer can combine information from the web with data on an individual’s mobile phone to build an application that enables users to view the location of their friends and be alerted when they are in the vicinity giving them a chance to connect.You can’t teach an old dog new tricksAlways one to challenge tradition and assumptions, I was thrilled when Symbian; actually the leading smartphone operating system in the world made it’s mobile operating system open source. The availability now gives smartphone manufacturers an alternative to Android. Companies can develop applications to integrate with the enterprise thus streamlining processes, extending device life and maximizing investment. All you Nokia users are sure to reap big benefits as developers rush to take advantage of the 330 million user base.Free is for FreedomThe common misconception is that open source is about free as in software thats costs nothing. On the contrary it’s about freedom. It’s about control. Access to the source code gives you the freedom to tailor make it to your requirement and situation. Public domain information must be free from barriers to access or reuse traditionally copyrighted, so when you create make it free from any copyright protection or if you have already created something, let it free and watch it soar.The Open Source DefinitionOpen source doesn't just mean access to the source code. The distribution terms of open-source software must comply with the following criteria:1. Free RedistributionThe license shall not restrict any party from selling or giving away the software as a component of an aggregate software distribution containing programs from several different sources. The license shall not require a royalty or other fee for such sale.2. Source CodeThe program must include source code, and must allow distribution in source code as well as compiled form. Where some form of a product is not distributed with source code, there must be a well-publicized means of obtaining the source code for no more than a reasonable reproduction cost preferably, downloading via the Internet without charge. The source code must be the preferred form in which a programmer would modify the program. Deliberately obfuscated source code is not allowed. Intermediate forms such as the output of a preprocessor or translator are not allowed.3. Derived WorksThe license must allow modifications and derived works, and must allow them to be distributed under the same terms as the license of the original software.4. Integrity of The Author's Source CodeThe license may restrict source-code from being distributed in modified form only if the license allows the distribution of "patch files" with the source code for the purpose of modifying the program at build time. The license must explicitly permit distribution of software built from modified source code. The license may require derived works to carry a different name or version number from the original software.5. No Discrimination Against Persons or GroupsThe license must not discriminate against any person or group of persons.6. No Discrimination Against Fields of EndeavorThe license must not restrict anyone from making use of the program in a specific field of endeavor. For example, it may not restrict the program from being used in a business, or from being used for genetic research.7. Distribution of LicenseThe rights attached to the program must apply to all to whom the program is redistributed without the need for execution of an additional license by those parties.8. License Must Not Be Specific to a ProductThe rights attached to the program must not depend on the program's being part of a particular software distribution. If the program is extracted from that distribution and used or distributed within the terms of the program's license, all parties to whom the program is redistributed should have the same rights as those that are granted in conjunction with the original software distribution.9. License Must Not Restrict Other SoftwareThe license must not place restrictions on other software that is distributed along with the licensed software. For example, the license must not insist that all other programs distributed on the same medium must be open-source software.10. License Must Be Technology-NeutralNo provision of the license may be predicated on any individual technology or style of interface.
- Global mobile statistics 2011: all quality mobile marketing research, mobile Web stats, subscribers, ad revenue, usage, trends…November 2011: The essential compendium of need-to-know statistics. Beware of media hype and mobile myth – put your mobile strategy on a sound footing with the latest research from credible independent experts. Global mobile subscribers, handset sales, mobile Web usage, mobile apps, mobile ad spend, top mobile operators and mobile financial services.LATEST UPDATE (November, 2011):Adds… • Mobile security numbers - number of secured smartphones and tablets: 4 percent; New mobile malware in 2010: 2,500. • Mobile app downloads: Android overtakes Apple. • Updates Facebook mobile users.The mobiThinking compendium of mobile statistics and researchThe stats, all the stats and nothing but the stats…In the past two years, we have gone from a smattering of mobile statistics to an abundance of useful information. But there's still a long way to go, there are still huge gaps in our knowledge, some countries enjoy a proliferation of data sources, while others have little or none; and the quality of statistics varies incredibly. As telecoms regulators and industry associations start to collect and share meaningful data, things will only get better.An unfortunate side effect of the media’s recent surge of enthusiasm for mobile in the past year is a tendency to highlight data of dubious quality (often when better is available), and/or widespread misunderstanding, misreporting and failure to qualify figures they have cherry-picked. This isn't just misleading and confusing, it's damaging. If brands are persuaded by hype to divert funds into niche, ill-thought-through mobile projects and then get burnt, the whole mobile business suffers.This mobile stats compendium – which is regularly updated - hopefully goes some way to putting right some of the sins of the last few years. But please remember that even the best quality independent statistics are speculative to some degree – stats are not facts.• If you use any of the stats, please remember to source and link to the analysts and to mobiThinking.• Thanks to all the analysts, associations and regulators that continue to send us their research. Please keep us updated: editor(at)mobiThinking.com.• Be the first to know when we add new stats: @mobithinking• If you like the Compendium of mobile stats, then check out mobiThinking’s other useful guides:The big guides to: • Mobile industry awards (with 75 video case studies from MMA Cannes winners) • Mobile ad networks (18 networks profiled) • Mobile agencies (12 agencies profiled) • World’s top mobile markets (11 countries profiles)The insider’s guides to: • Mobile device security • Mobile cities • Device detection • Mobile health (m-health) • B2B mobile marketing • Mobile research (m-research) • Mobile barcodes • Mobile applications: native v Web apps • Design for mobile • SMS mobile marketing • Mobile social networkingTen new video interviews from New York (November 2011): • Live Nation • AKQA • Starwood Hotels • MEC • Weather Channel • Sam’s Club • Professor Neal Burns • Smart AdServer • Rockfish • Nexage“There are more than 350 million active users [44 percent] currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are twice as active on Facebook as non-mobile users.” – Facebook official statistics (November, 2011).Those statistics in a nutshell:N.B. This bit is just a taster, an introduction/index, scroll down or follow the links to be taken to in-depth coverage of all the stats, with tables and links to all the sources, below.PART A: Mobile subscribers; handset data; mobile operators1) There are 5.3 billion mobile subscribers (that's 77 percent of the world population). Growth is led by China and India.• What other medium offers that reach?2) Mobile devices sales rose in 2010, with smartphones showing strongest growth, Nokia remains number one in both smartphones and mobile phones, but Android is expected to become the top OS for new smartphones in 2011.• Feature phones sales (let alone ownership) still outnumber smartphones 4:1. If your mobile strategy doesn’t include feature phones, it doesn’t include most of your customers.3) Top mobile network operator for subscribers and revenues is China Mobile; for average revenue per user is 3UK; for lowest monthly churn is NTT DOCOMO Japan; and for proportion of revenues from data is Smart Philippines.• But it’s not all good news. Mobile operators in developed countries could run out of profit in the next two to four years if they do not change their business models.• All these stats in detail below…PART B: Mobile Web; users; 3G coverage1) Half a billion people accessed mobile Internet worldwide in 2009. Usage is expected to double within five years as mobile overtakes the PC as the most popular way to get on the Web.• Just in China there are 277 million mobile Web users.2) Many mobile Web users are mobile-only, i.e. they do not, or very rarely use a desktop, laptop or tablet to access the Web. Even in the US 25 percent of mobile Web users are mobile-only.• Still think you don’t need a mobile site?3) The drivers of mobile Web and mobile media are:(i) Web-enabled handsets - by 2011, over 85 percent of new handsets will be able to access the mobile Web. In US and W. Europe, it is already surpassed that. Lots of new handsets support 3G (fast Internet).• N.B. smartphones are only a fraction of Web-enabled phones.(ii) High-speed mobile networks - almost one in five global mobile subscribers have access to fast mobile Internet (3G or better).(iii) Unlimited data plans - Widespread availability of unlimited data plans drove mobile media in Japan, now it’s driving the US; but in W. Europe, lack of availability is holding up progress.• All these stats in detail below…PART C: Mobile marketing, advertising and messaging.1) SMS is the king of mobile messaging8 trillion text messages will be sent in 2011.But consumers are also embracing mobile email, IM and MMS rapidly.A2P - application to person SMS e.g. automated alerts from banks, offers from retailers, m-tickets is expected to overtake person to person SMS in 2016.• Is your opt-in CRM database part of that revolution?2) Mobile ad spend worldwide is predicted to be US$3.3 billion in 2011 sky rocketing to $20.6 billion in 2015, driven by search ads and local ads. In the US over half of U.S. mobile ad spending is local. Asia – Japan particularly – continues to dominate global mobile ad spend.• With US$1 billion in annual mobile ad revenues Google is the main recipient of mobile ad spend.3) To what types of mobile marketing do people respond best? In the UK and France opt-in SMS gets the best results, in Germany mobile Web ads get the best results.• All these stats in detail below…PART D: Consumer mobile behavior1) What do consumers use their mobiles for? Japanese consumers are still more advanced in mobile behavior, using mobile Web, apps and email more, but US or Europeans text and play more games. Most popular mobile destinations are news and information, weather reports, social networking, search and maps.• In all countries surveyed more consumers used their browser than apps and only a minority will use Web or apps exclusively.2) US consumers prefer mobile browsers for banking, travel, shopping, local info, news, video, sports and blogs and prefer apps for games, social media, maps and music.3) Mobile searches have quadrupled in the last year, for many items one in seven searches are now mobile.• Did you know 71 percent of smartphone users that see TV, press or online ad, do a mobile search - will they find your mobile site or your competitors’?• All these stats in detail below…PART E: Mobile apps, app stores, pricing and failure rates1) Over 300,000 mobile apps have been developed in three years. Apps have been downloaded 10.9 billion times. But demand for download mobile apps is expected to peak in 2013.2) The most used mobile apps in the US are games; news; maps; social networking and music. Facebook, Google Maps and The Weather Channel (TWC) rule.• But does reality match the hype around apps? The average download price of a mobile app is falling rapidly on all vendor app stores, except Android. And 1 in 4 mobile apps once downloaded are never used again.• All these stats in detail below…PART F: Mobile payment, NFC, m-commerce, m-ticketing and m-coupons1) Paying by mobile i.e. m-payments will be worth US$240 billion in 2011 and could be over US$1 trillion by 2015. Purchasing digital goods is the largest segment ahead of physical goods, near-field communications (NFC), m-banking and money transfer. Biggest market today is Japan, but in the future could be China.2) Japan sets the precedent for m-payment 47 million Japanese have adopted tap-and-go phones, but is expected to take off elsewhere as the world adopts NFC. In China alone, there will be 169 million users of tap-and-go payments in 2013.3) M-commerce is predicted to reach US$119 billion in 2015, Japan remains king. Top m-commerce retailers globally include: Taobao, Amazon and eBay. On eBay alone consumers bought and sold over US$2 billion worth of merchandise via mobile in 2010. The US m-commerce market will be US$31 billion by 2016.• 1 in 8 mobile subscribers will use m-ticketing in 2015 for airline, rail and bus travel, festivals, cinemas and sports events.• All these stats in detail below…PART G: Mobile financial services (MFS) and m-bankingBetween 500 million and 1 billion people will access financial services by mobile by 2015, depending on estimates. The MFS market will be dominated Asia, driven by mobile operator-led initiatives in developing nations to bank the unbanked. Remittance/transfers by mobile is growing three times faster than m-banking.• Will MFS be mobile's killer application?• All these stats in detail below…“In the last twelve months, customers around the world have ordered more than US$1 billion of products from Amazon using a mobile device," – Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon.com (July 2010).Those statistics in more detail:PART A: Mobile subscribers; global mobile handset and smartphone market share; world’s top five operators1) There will be 5.3 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2010, estimates The International Telecommunication Union (October 2010). That is equivalent to 77 percent of the world population. And is a huge increase from 4.6 billion mobile subscriptions at the end of 2009.• 90 percent of the world now lives in a place with access to a mobile network. For people living in rural communities this is lower at 80 percent.• At the end of 2010 there will be 3.8 billion mobile subscriptions in the developing world – that’s 73 percent of global subscriptions.• For more on the latest ITU stats read this: interview with ITU statistics chief Susan TeltscherKey Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector in 2010(all figures are estimates) Global Developednations Developingnations Africa ArabStates Asia & Pacific CIS Europe The AmericasMobile cellular subscriptions(millions) 5,282 1,436 3,846 333 282 2,649 364 741 880Per 100 people 76.2% 116.1% 67.6% 41.4% 79.4% 67.8% 131.5% 120.0% 94.1%Fixed telephone lines(millions) ( 1,197 506 691 13 33 549 74 249 262Per 100 people 17.3% 40.9% 12.1% 1.6% 9.4% 14.0% 26.6% 40.3% 28.1%Mobile broadband subscriptions(millions) 940 631 309 29 34 278 72 286 226Per 100 people 13.6% 51.1% 5.4% 3.6% 9.7% 7.1% 25.9% 46.3% 24.2%Fixed broadband subscriptions(millions) 555 304 251 1 8 223 24 148 145per 100 people 8.0% 24.6% 4.4% 0.2% 2.3% 5.7% 8.7% 23.9% 15.5%Source: International Telecommunication Union (October 2010) via: mobiThinking2) Mobile growth is being driven by demand developing world, says The ITU (October 2010) and is being fuelled by India and China in particular. These two countries collectively added 300 million new mobile subscriptions in 2010 – that’s more than the total mobile subscribers in the US.• Mobile penetration is fast reaching saturation point at over 100 percent mobile penetration• Mobile penetration in the developing world now is 68 percent.• Mobile penetration in Africa is the lowest worldwide at 41 percent.The world's most populous nations have the most mobile subscriptions (unsurprisingly), China and India lead growth.• China: 859 million mobile subscribers (64 percent of population) in Dec 2010, up 112 million from 2009. Of these 47 million were 3G mobile phone users (National Bureau of Statistics of China February 2011).• India: 840.28 million subscribers (70 percent of population) in May 2011, up 223 million from May 2010 (TRAI, June 2010).• USA: 302.9 million subscribers (96 percent of population) in Dec 2010 (CTIA).3) There were 18.5 percent more mobile devices sold in 2010 compared to 2009.IDC: 1388.2 million handsets were sold in 2010, up 18.5 percent compared with 2009.Strategy Analytics: 1388.2 million handsets were sold in 2010, up 18.5 percent compared with 2009.Top five mobile phone manufacturers, by 2010 global salesaccording to IDC Top five mobile phone manufacturers, by 2010 global salesaccording to Strategy AnalyticsRank Vendor Unit shipments Market share Annual sales growth Rank Vendor Unit shipments Market share1 Nokia 453.0 million 32.6% 4.9% 1 Nokia 453.0 million 33.3%2 Samsung 280.2 million 20.2% 23.3% 2 Samsung 280.2 million 20.6%3 LG 116.7 million 8.4% -1.0% 3 LG 116.7 million 8.6%4 ZTE 51.8 million 3.7% 94.0% 4 RIM 48.8 million 3.6%5 RIM 48.8 million 3.5% 41.4% 5 Apple 47.5 million 3.5% Others 437.7 million 31.5% 31.2% Others 413.8 million 30.4% Total 1388.2 million 100.0% 18.5% Total 1360 million 100%Source:IDC (February 2011) Source:Strategy Analytics (February 2011) via: mobiThinking3b) The top device manufacturer by market penetration (rather than sales of new handsets – above and below) is Nokia in W.Europe, Samsung in the US and Sharp in Japan. Smartphone penetration in is higher in developed nations than in the rest of the world, but even here the vast majority of devices are still feature phones. These estimates are based surveys conducted by ComScore in October, November, December 2010 (Japan is December only).Top mobile manufacturers, by market penetration, Q4 2010, according to ComScore USA Japan Germany UK France Spain Italy1 Samsung 24.8% Sharp 25.3% Nokia 33.1% Nokia 30.4% Samsung 34.1% Nokia 47% Nokia 47.4%2 LG 20.9% Panasonic 15.0% Sony Ericsson 18.2% Samsung 19.4% Nokia 20.6% Samsung 15.3% Samsung 21.4%3 Motorola 16.7% Fujitsu 11.7% Samsung 17.8% Sony Ericsson 13.7% Sony Ericsson 10.7% LG 10% LG 7.2%Proportion of population with a smartphone, Q4 2010, according to ComScore 27% 33.6% 38.0% Source: ComScore (February 2011) Survey group: 27,000 via: mobiThinking4) Smartphone sales showed strong growth worldwide in 2010.IDC (February 2011): Total shipments in 2010 were 302.6 million units up 74.4 percent from 2009. This makes smartphones 21.8 percent of all handsets shipped.Strategy Analytics (February 2011): Total shipments in 2010 were 292.9 million units up 67.6 percent from 2009. This makes smartphones 21.5 percent of all handsets shipped.Top five mobile smartphone manufacturers, by 2010 global salesaccording to IDC Top three smartphone manufacturers, by 2010 global salesaccording to Strategy AnalyticsRank Vendor Unit shipments Market share Annual salesgrowth Rank Vendor Unit shipments Market share Annual sales growth1 Nokia 100.3 million 33.1% 48.2% 1 Nokia 100.1 million 34.2% 47.6%2 RIM 48.8 million 16.1% 41.4% 2 RIM 48.8 million 16.7% 41.4%3 Apple 47.5 million 15.7% 89.2% 3 Apple 47.5 million 16.2% 89.3%4 Samsung 23 million 7.6% 318.2% Other 96.5 million 32.9% 103.9%5 HTC 21.5 million 7.1% 165.4% Other 61.5 20.3% 88.7% Total 302.6 million 100.0% 74.4% Total 292.9 million 100.0% 67.6%Source:IDC (February 2011) Source:Strategy Analytics (February 2011) via: mobiThinking• mobiThinking reality check on Apple: Apple receives far more publicity than any other mobile-phone manufacturer, but on the world stage it is still a pretty small player (though fast-growing). Before media hype lulls you into focusing your marketing/development budget on the Apple platform exclusively, consider this: 96.5 percent of mobile users don’t have one – mostly they use Nokia or Samsung; and even among smartphone users 84 percent don’t have an Apple.4b) Android is forecasted to become the number one smartphone operating system in 2011.Gartner (April 2011): Predicts 468 million will be sold in 2011, that’s a 57.7 percent increase from 2010. Of those phones, 38.5 percent will be powered by the Android operating system. By 2015, 631 million smartphones will be sold, approaching half of those will be Android.IDC (March 2011): Predicts 450 million will be sold in 2011, that’s a 49.2 percent increase from 2010. Of those phones, 39.5 percent will be powered by the Android operating system.Both Gartner and IDC expect to see Symbian nose dive following Nokia’s decision to dump its smartphone operating system in favor of Microsoft’s Windows Phone. Windows phone shows strong growth, but considerably less market share than Symbian enjoyed to 2010.• More analysis and implications of these stats.Worldwide smartphone operating system (OS) market share in 2009-2015, according to Gartner Smartphone OS market share and compound annual growth rate 2011-2015, according to IDCOS(listed alphabetically) 2009market share 2010market share 2011market share 2015market Share 2011market share 2015market Share 2011-2015CAGRAndroid 3.9% 22.7% 38.5% 48.8% 39.5% 45.4% 23.8%BlackBerry 19.9% 16.0% 13.4% 11.1% 14.9% 13.7% 17.1%iOS 14.4% 15.7% 19.4% 17.2% 15.7% 15.3% 18.8%Symbian 46.9% 37.6% 19.2% 0.1% 20.9% 0.2% -65.0%Windows Phone/Mobile 8.7% 4.2% 5.6% 19.5% 5.5% 20.9% 67.1%Others 6.1% 3.8% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 28.0%Total smartphones sold 172 million 297 million 468 million 631 million 450 million N/A 19.6%Source: Gartner (April 2011)Source: IDC (March 2011) via: mobiThinking5) Only a fraction of smartphones and tablets are protected by security software, despite a rise in the amount of malware targeted at mobile devices.Estimates for growth of mobile malware (includes viruses, worms and malicious software used by hackers, such as code inserted into compromised mobile apps) vary greatly, but all expects warn that it is growing very fast.• BullGuard identified a staggering 2,500 different types of mobile malware in 2010.• IBM X-Force named 2011 the year of the security breach, predicting that “exploits targeting vulnerabilities that affect mobile operating systems will more than double from 2010”.Yet most smartphones and tablets have little security protection:• Canalys (October 2011): Only 4 percent of smartphones and tablet computers shipped in 2010 had some form of mobile security downloaded and installed.• Juniper Research (August 2011): Less than 1 in 20 smartphones and tablets have third-party security software installed in them, despite a steady increase in threats.This is expected to change, let by sales to business:• Canalys: US $759.8 million will be spent on security in 2011 alone, growing at 44 percent annually to be worth US $3 billion in 2015.• Juniper: By 2016, 277 million mobile devices will have some kind of protection installed, costing mobile users a collective US$3.6 billion. 69 percent of this investment will be made by corporations concerned about corporate data is stored on mobile devices.Further reading:• The insider’s guide to mobile security• Mobile security – implications for your business6) The top five mobile network operators worldwide: by number of subscribers, revenues, monthly average revenue per user (ARPU), monthly churn (i.e. loyalist customer base) and data as a percentage of total revenues, according to Portio Research:Top five operators by different KPIs – worldwideRank Subscribers Total revenues Monthly ARPU Monthly churn Proportion of revenuesderived from data1 China Mobile China Mobile 3 UK NTT DOCOMO Japan Smart Philippines2 China Unicom AT&T US Bouygues France KDDI Japan Globe Philippines3 BhartiAirtel India Verizon US Vodafone Ireland SingTel Singapore SoftBank Japan4 AT&T US NTT DOCOMO Japan O2 Ireland Chunghwa Taiwan NTT DOCOMO Japan5 Verizon US Sprint US Orange Switzerland T-Mobile Germany KDDI JapanSource: Portio Research (June 2009)via: mobiThinkingmobiThinking note on the Top fives: the most interesting thing is the predominance of Asian mobile operators coming top in both the customer loyalty and data revenues sections. Perhaps this represents different and longer-term priorities than the European networks that come top in average revenue per user. (Note: the analysis in this report is based on 2008 revenues).7) Mobile operators in developed countries could run out of profit in the next two to four years if they do not change their business models, according to research by Tellabs/Analysys Mason (February 2011). This assumes current trends in demand for data, revenues and costs associated with investing in high speed data networks. When mobile operators in developed economies are expected to run out of profit(if expenditure, demand and revenue trends remain the same)Region Worst case scenario median Best case scenarioNorth America Q1, 2013 Q4, 2013 Q2, 2014Developed Asia Pacific Q3, 2013 Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015Western Europe Q1, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q2, 2015Source: Tellabs/ Analysys Mason (February 2011) via: mobiThinking“The various use cases for consumers will depend on where they are, what time of day and what day of the week. Currently we have television with over 110 million folks. We have Weather.com on the Web which is approaching 70 million and the breakdown specific for mobile apps is fairly even between iOS and Android devices with over 20 million for each of those and then we have 33 million unique folks on the mobile Web.” Scott Jensen, VP, Weather Channel (November 2011) in a video interview with mobiThinking.• Find out how companies are using mobile to engage their customers in this series of video interviews with Russell Wallach, Live Nation Network • Stephen Gates, Starwood Hotels • Scott Jensen, Weather Channel • Matt Martin, Sam’s Club • Amy Gale, Autotrader MobilePART B: Mobile Web1) The number of people accessing the mobile Internet is growing fast and is expected to overtake the PC as the most popular way to get on the Web within five years.The ITU (February 2010) expects mobile Web access – via laptops and smart mobile devices – to overtake desktop Web within the next five years.Strategy Analytics (March 2010) estimates that at the end of 2009 almost 530 million users browsed the mobile Web on their handset. This is forecast to rise to over 1 billion by 2015.IDC (December 2009) estimates there were more than 450 million mobile Internet users worldwide in 2009; this will pass the 1 billion mark by 2013.• mobiThinking note: The reason experts believe it is inevitable that mobile access to the Web will overtake PC access at some point (assuming the present expansion of 3G networks and availability of Internet-ready phones continues) is that mobile phone penetration outnumbers fixed Internet users 5:2. In the developed world, only 21 percent of people have Internet access, lowest in Africa at 9.6 percent. The price of fixed broadband in developing countries remains prohibitively expensive. (all figures from the ITU estimates, October 2010)).2) There are more mobile Internet users in China than any other country.The China Internet Network Information Center (CINIC) reports (July 2010): There are 277 million mobile Web users in China, up 43 million in six months. This amounts to 65.9 percent of total web users in China 420 million, the majority of these also access the Web via PC or laptop, but 11.7 percent of Web users exclusively use mobile to access the Web (this works out about 49 million – or more than the number of people that live in Spain).• At this rate there will soon be more mobile Internet users in China than there are people in the US - the world’s third largest nation.• For more analysis see: Why Asia will (continue to) dominate the mobile Web3) A much higher percentage of Japanese people use the mobile Internet than any other country, according to official stats.• Japan has 121,246,700 mobile subscribers (95 percent of the population) of which 120,030,000 have 3G handsets (99 percent of handsets) and 98,683,500 (81 percent of mobile users) are mobile Internet subscribers (TCA, Japan Statistics Bureau, June 2011).• mobiThinking note: this means that 77 percent of Japanese people have access to the mobile Internet via their handset, but the number regular users could be considerably less.4) The percentage of people regularly accessing the mobile Web in Japan and urban China is more than double the US according to surveys by Forrester (June 2011)Percentage of mobile subscribers accessing mobile Web at least monthlyCountry Percentage Country PercentageJapan 47% Hong Kong (China) 16%Urban China 43% Europe 12%United States 22% Urban India 8%Source: Forrester (June 2011) via: mobiThinking5) Many mobile Web users are mobile-only, i.e. they do not, or very rarely also use a desktop, laptop or tablet to access the Web, according to On Device Research.• In many developing nations, the majority of mobile Web users are mobile-only, highest include Egypt at 70 percent and India at 59 percent. • In many developing nations, the mobile-only tend to be under 25.• In developed nations, including the US at 25 percent, a large minority of mobile Web users are mobile-only. • In developed nations, in the US particularly, many mobile-only are older people and many come from lower income households• In Africa the 85 percent of the mobile-only Web users access the Web with a feature phone. • In Africa the top mobile activities for mobile-only users are: downloading games (55 percent); downloading music (54 percent); social networking (52 percent); search (48 percent); email (46 percent).• Many mobile-only Web users do not have a bank account, in India this is 57 percent of the mobile-only.• mobiThinking note: The best thing about these stats is that they are generated by m-research. On Device Research has recruited panelists of 1,000+ panelists in each target country that answer questions on mobile via the mobile Web. Find out more: Using mobile Web-based research to deliver insights into the mobile-only generation. Also seethis: Guide to m-research.Percentage of mobile Web users who never or infrequently use the desktop WebCountry Percentagemobile-only Country Percentagemobile-onlyEgypt 70% Indonesia 44%India 59% Thailand 32%South Africa 57% China 30%Ghana 55% US 25%Kenya 54% UK 22%Nigeria 50% Russia 19%Source: On Device Research (December 2010) Survey group: 15,204 via: mobiThinking6) In 2011 over 85 percent of new handsets will be able to access the mobile Web. Today in US and Western Europe, 90 percent of mobile subscribers have an Internet-ready phone.• Gartner (March 2010) predicts that in 2011, over 85 percent of handsets shipped globally will include some form of browser.• In mature markets, such as Western Europe and Japan, approximately 60 percent of handsets shipped will be smartphones with sophisticated browsing capabilities.• In mature markets, the mobile Web, along with associated Web adaptation tools, will be a leading technology for business to consumer (B2C) mobile applications through 2012, and should be part of every organization's B2C technology portfolio.• comScore (February 2011) estimates that 90 percent of mobile subscribers in US and Western Europe have a phone that can access the mobile Web. 48 percent of US and 61 percent of W. Europeans have a handset with an HTML browsers (this proportion is increasing fast), the rest have WAP browsers.• ComScore notes that there are more than 60 different types/versions of mobile browser in use on mobile handsets. This makes mobile Web design more complicated than desktop Web design.• dotMobi (July 2011) – mobiThinking’s parent company – estimates that there are 6,500 distinct Web-capable mobile devices models out there – that’s ignoring devices that only vary in color or phones that have be renamed/relabeled by operators etc. The majority of these are not smartphones. The specifications/features of these devices vary massively, screen sizes particularly.• ABI Research (July 2011) predicts that 2.1 billion mobile devices will have HTML5 browsers by 2016 (up from 109 million in 2010). HTML5 will help to deliver a richer, more interactive mobile Web experience, including being able to play video without needing a plug such as the Adobe Flash Player.• mobiThinking note on smartphones and HTML browsers: just because people may be able to view your PC Website with a mobile device with an HTML browser, doesn’t mean it is a pleasant or fulfilling experience. However big the device’s screen is, viewing a PC Website requires scrolling left and right and up and down. Don’t forget that most web-enabled phones are not smartphones and have much smaller screens. However good the mobile connection, large images will be slow to load. Many technologies commonly used on PC sites, such as Flash, do not work, or work well, on many handsets, including Apple. What’s more, mobile users have different requirements from desktop Web users and provide different opportunities for your business.• For more on HTML5 see these video interviews: Why HTML5 changes everything – DimitriosKontarinis, VP of innovation, Velti and Meeting the needs of mobile customers with mobile Web/HTML5 – Stephen Gates, Starwood Hotels• For more on why your site needs to identify and react to mobile visitors see this Guide to device detection.7) Almost one in five people have access to fast mobile Internet (3G or better) services. The ITU (October 2010) estimates that at the end of 2010 there will be 940 million 3G subscriptions (that’s 18 percent of total subscriptions)• 3G networks are now available in 143 countries and some countries such as Sweden, Norway, Ukraine and United States are already moving to 4G.7b) Top regions and countries for penetration of 3G handsets according to Informa and Ovum via Morgan Stanley:Top regions for penetration of 3G handsetsaccording to Ovum Top 10 countries for penetration of 3G handsetsaccording to InformaRegion 2009 2014 Country %Western Europe 39% 92% Japan 90%North America 38% 74% South Korea 75%Eastern Europe 9% 40% Australia 56%AsiaPac (without Japan) 7% 37% Singapore 44%Japan 91% 100% Israel 46%Middle East & Africa 7% 35% Spain 41%South & Central America 4% 17% USA 41% Sweden 40% Austria 40% Portugal 35% Italy 34%Global 15% 43% Global 12%Source: Morgan Stanley (April 2010) Morgan Stanley via: mobiThinkingmobiThinking note on 3G: Morgan Stanley states that "3G is key to success of mobile Internet"; however while Japan (king of the mobile Web) appears to be testimony to this conclusion, China claims to have the highest mobile Internet usage in the world despite low 3G handset penetration.8) More widespread availability of unlimited data plans has helped the US overtake and extend its lead in mobile media use (mobile Web, apps, content downloads etc) over Western Europe.• ComScore finds that where there are now 29 percent of US subscribers have unlimited plans, there are only 8 percent in the EU5 (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain). ComScore does not provide comparable data for Japan, where mobile media penetration is 75 percent dwarfing both the US and EU5.• But Infinita estimates that 75 percent of Japanese are on unlimited plans (it was first introduced in 2004), while over 95 percent have 3G handsets. In this Guide to Japan, Infinita states that penetration of unlimited data is the main reason mobile Web in Japan is so advanced.Mobile Market Enablers in the U.S and W. Europe, Q4 2010, according to ComScoreCountry Unlimited data plans Smartphone penetration 3G/4G handset ownership Mobile media usageUS 29% 27% 50% 47%W.Europe (EU5) 8% 31.1% 47.1% 37%Japan 75%Source: ComScore (February 2011) Survey group: 27,000 via: mobiThinking“Mobile is an annualized run rate of over US$1billion. This means that the people are accessing our products and services through their mobile phones are adding a billion dollars annually to our existing revenue streams. Clearly this is the future of search on the Internet. More people in more countries are coming online from smartphones. Our mobile search queries have grown five times over the last couple of years,” – Jonathan Rosenberg, SVP, Google (October 2010).• There are 200 million mobile video playbacks every day on YouTube – YouTube internal data.• Need a regular fix of mobile stats? Follow us on Twitter for updates: @mobithinkingPART C: Mobile marketing, advertising and messaging1) SMS is the king of mobile messaging.• Portio Research (January 2011): 6.9 SMS trillion messages were sent in 2010. SMS traffic is expected to break 8 trillion in 2011.• 249 billion MMS were sent, in 2010.• 480.6 million users of mobile email in 2010, expected to quadruple by 2015.• 311.2 million users of mobile instant messaging (IM) in 2010, expected to grow to 1.6 trillion by 2015.• Portio says: “Messaging is still king. We want to be absolutely clear about this. Messaging still dominates [mobile operators’] non-voice revenues worldwide”. Worldwide mobile messaging market will be worth over US$200 billion in 2011 (SMS is $127 billion of this), reaching $334.7 billion by 2015.• Juniper Research (May 2011): By 2016, application-to-person (A2P) messaging will overtake person-to-person (texting) messaging, being worth more than US$70bn.• A2P messaging includes messages to or from an application to or from a large number of customers in financial services, advertising, marketing, business administration, ticketing, television voting etc.• Juniper Research (June 2011): Mobile IM users will exceed 1.3 billion by 2016. “While IM services have some advantages, such as real-time communication and apparent absence of cost, the market is fragmented by different services [AOL’s AIM, Blackberry Messenger, Microsoft’s Windows Live, Skype and Yahoo! Messenger] which cannot communicate with each other.”2) Expenditure on mobile advertising and marketing worldwide:Gartner predicts mobile ad revenue will be US$3.3 billion in 2011. This will sky rocket to $20.6 billion in 2015, more than doubling each year. It will continue to grow thereafter.• Search ads and location ads (paid-for positioning on maps and augmented reality apps) will deliver the highest revenue, while video/audio ads will see the fastest growth through 2015.• Brand spending on mobile advertising will grow from 0.5 percent of the total advertising budget in 2010 to over 4 percent in 2015.• Asia will continue to dominate global mobile ad spend, but to a lessening degree from 49.2 percent of mobile ad revenue in 2011 to 33.6 percent in 2015.• See: Q&A with Gartner for implications.• See: What makes Asia Pacific the most exciting mobile market in the world? Interview with RohitDadwal, MD Asia Pacific, MMA.Mobile Advertising Revenue by Region, Worldwide, 2010-2015 (Millions of Dollars), according to GartnerRegion 2010 2011 2015North America 304.3 701.7 5,791.4Western Europe 257.1 569.3 5,131.9Asia/Pacific and Japan 868.8 1,628.5 6,925.0Rest of the World 196.9 410.4 2,761.7Total 1,627.1 3,309.9 20,610.0Source: Gartner (June 2011) via: mobiThinking• Strategy Analytics (March 2010): Global expenditure on mobile advertising (defined as placing an advert within a variety of mobile media formats including mobile Internet, games and applications, mobile video, mobile TV, streaming music, text and media alerts) is estimated at US$3.6 billion in 2009, growing to US$38 billion in 2015.ABI Research (May 2009): Global expenditure on mobile marketing and advertising in 2009 was $7.5 billion, forecasted to be $11.5 billion in 2010, $16.3 billion in 2011 and $21.2 billion in 2012.Juniper Research (August 2009): Total advertising expenditure on mobile is expected to rise from just over US$1.4bn in 2009 to US$6 billion n in 2014. Of this, ad spend on mobile Internet was estimated to be US$500 million in 2009. The report also pointed out that:• Where fixed Internet access is limited, mobile is the dominant means of accessing the Internet: in India, mobile accounted for nearly 90 percent of all Internet users in 2008.• Brands can build up much more detailed profiles of user responses compared to online and plan follow-up campaigns accordingly.3) Japan rules the roost when it comes to mobile advertising, based on its highly developed mobile Web.Mobile marketing and advertising expenditures in Japan in 2009 was 103.1 billion Yen, that's US$1.14 billion (according to Dentsu). Year-on-year growth was 12.9 percent. There are lots more juicy stats in this Guide to mobile in Japan4) Google’s gross revenue from mobile advertising is over US$1 billion per year, according to Google’s fascinating Q3 2010 earnings call (October 2010). AdMob, the mobile ad network acquired by Google for US$750 million appears to be a small part of this US$1 billion today, suggesting that mobile search is the main revenue earner.• mobiThinking note: In this Q&A with Gartner, the analyst estimates that Google’s US$1 billion would have given it 70 percent of the global mobile ad market. The analyst also says Japan and South Korea together account for about 95 percent mobile ad expenditure in APAC (the largest region worldwide).5) More than half of U.S. mobile ad spending is local.BIA/Kelsey (June 2011): U.S. mobile ad spending will grow from US$790 million in 2010 to $4 billion in 2015. Local ad spend will grow from US$404 million to $2.8 billion.• This makes locally targeted mobile ads 51 percent of overall U.S. mobile ad spending, growing to 70 percent by 2015.• Mobile local advertising includes ads that target users in specific locations or contain location-specific calls to action.• Among the drivers of mobile ad revenue growth are smartphone penetration, mobile Web usage and related increases in ad inventory. BIA/Kelsey expects large brand advertisers to evolve their campaign objectives to the capabilities of the mobile device — most notably, location awareness.• emarketer.com (October 2010): US expenditure on mobile advertising and marketing is estimated to be US$416 million in 2009; $743 million in 2010 and will be $1,102 in 2011. In 2010 mobile ad formats were dominated by messaging ($327 million), but display ($202 million) and search ($185 million) will catch up in 2012. Video lags at ($28 million).6) How many people see and react to mobile ads? According to consumer research by The MMA and Lightspeed Research (October 2010), in UK, France and Germany, 45 percent of consumers (especially younger people) noticed mobile advertising and of these, 29 percent responded to it. Of those that responded to the ads, in Germany 49 percent, UK 47 percent and in France 22 percent went on to make a purchase.• The most effective form of ads was opt-in SMS in the UK (40 percent said they were more likely to respond to these) and in France (21 percent); while in Germany it was mobile Web ads (27 percent).• Time sensitive special offers or discounts (especially m-coupons) were most likely to lead to purchase.• People were most likely to purchase mobile content such as applications, music and games.7) Why advertisers need a mobile-friendly site according Google/Ipsos (US consumer Mobile Movement survey April 2011)• Of people who react to seeing a mobile ad: 42 percent click on the mobile ad; 35 percent visit the advertiser’s site; 32 percent search for more information on their phone; 49 percent make a purchase and 27 percent call the business.• 71 percent of smartphone users that see TV, press or online ad, do a mobile search for more information.• But 79 percent of large online advertisers still do not have a mobile optimized site, according to Google/Kelsey 2010.Draw inspiration from award-winning mobile sites, apps and campaigns, from mobiThinking’s library of over 75 video case studies from Cannes Lions, MMA Awards, EMMAS, Mobi Awards and World Summit Mobile Awards:• mobiThinking guide to mobile industry awards• Keep your finger on the pulse. We’ll let you know when we add new statistics via Twitter. Follow us for updates: @mobithinkingPART D: Consumer mobile behavior1) What do consumers use their mobiles for? According to ComScore's excellent 2010 Mobile Year in Review (February 2011) Japanese consumers are still much more advanced in their mobile usage, with 55.4 percent accessing the mobile Web and 57.1 percent using email, but US and European consumers are catching on fast.• Even in developed nations (where smartphone penetration is higher), more people use mobile Web than mobile apps. Very few use either mobile apps or mobile Web exclusively. Only 6 percent of app users in the US and 7 percent in Europe don’t use their browser. While 8 percent of browser users in the US and Europe don’t use apps.“Even though applications received much more attention by the media throughout 2010, our analysis in the US and the EU5 region showed that by a small margin, application usage is still second to browser usage when it comes to the mobile web… Further analysis of browser use and application access shows that the two activities are not mutually exclusive… Instead of the browser vs. app question being an ‘either or’ proposition, the mobile web audience has quickly come to expect and utilize both browsing and apps as an integral parts of the mobile web experience.” ComScore (February 2011).Mobile behavior in United States, EU5 (UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy) and Japan – October, November, December 2010Percent of total mobile audience (Age 13+)United States Europe JapanUsed connected media (browser, app or download) 46.7% 41.1% 76.8%Used browser 36.4% 28.8% 55.4%Used application 34.4% 28.0% 53.3%Used messagingSent text message 68.0% 82.7% 41.6%Instant messaging 17.2% 14.2% 3.6%Email 30.5% 22.2% 57.1%Accessed entertainment/social mediaTook photos 52.4% 57.5% 62.9%Social networking or blog 24.7% 18.0% 19.3%Played games 23.2% 25.3% 16.3%Recorded video 20.2% 26.1% 15.8%Listened to music 15.7% 25.0% 12.9%Watched TV and/or video 5.6% 5.7% 22.8%Accessed financial servicesBank accounts 11.4% 8.0% 7.0%Financial news or stock quotes 10.2% 8.0% 16.5%Accessed news, sports, weather, search, retail, travel, referenceNews and information 39.5% 32.2% 57.6%Weather reports 25.2% 16.4% 34.7%Search 21.4% 14.9% 31.5%Maps 17.8% 13.0% 17.1%Sports news 15.8% 12.0% 18.2%Restaurant info 10.0% 6.5% 9.7%Traffic reports 8.4% 7.4% 14.0%Classifieds 7.3% 4.8% 3.6%Retail site 6.5% 5.2% 8.5%Travel service 4.4% 4.6% 2.9%Source: comScoreMobiLens (Feb 2011) via: mobiThinking• Read the insiders’ guides to mobile in: • Japan; • France; • Germany; • USA; • UK; • Spain.2) US consumers prefer browser to apps for most mobile activities, according to Keynote/Adobe (survey of 1,200 U.S. consumers, mostly smartphone users, October 2010)• Accessing maps and directions is the no. 1 mobile activity, followed by social networking, accessing local information and reading news.• Respondents generally favor the browser experience over downloadable mobile apps, except when it comes to games, social media, maps and music.• Consumers report equal satisfaction levels with their browser and app experiences, and spend nearly equal amounts of time interacting with each.• “To maximize reach, invest in a mobile-optimized web experience and look beyond a single device.” – Adobe/Keynote.US consumers’ favorite mobile activitiesand preferences for accessing the activity via app or browserCategory Participated Prefer apps Prefer browserMedia and Entertainment: Social networking 76% 54% 46%Local info 73% 46% 54%News 68% 37% 63%Music 63% 55% 45%Games 61% 61% 39%Video 56% 42% 58%Sports 42% 33% 67%Blogs/blogging 41% 25% 75%Product reviews 34% 22% 78%Travel and mapping: Maps/directions 81% 52% 48%Research travel 47% 25% 75%Check travel reviews 43% 23% 77%Check travel itinerary 39% 32% 68%Banking and finance: Check bank account 67% 42% 58%Conduct bank transactions 51% 39% 61%Budgeting 43% 44% 56%Shopping: For every shopping activity, including researching products and prices, reviews, promotionsand purchasing products, most respondents (61-81%) preferred browser to native app.Source: Keynote/Adobe (October 2010) via: mobiThinking• mobiThinking note on mobile Web v mobile apps: both the results of the ComScore and the Keynote/Adobe research makes a mockery of the people who claimed the download app would kill the mobile Web. Despite all the media hype and unfathomable amounts of money invested in developing and promoting apps for proprietary handsets, mobile consumers still use and prefer the mobile Web to mobile apps… and they always will.But many users prefer mobile apps for certain activities – particularly those that they use frequently and where they are loyal to one provider e.g. mapping and social networking. That’s why mobiThinking also has little time for the equally naïve counter argument that the mobile Web will kill the native app.• For more on mobile apps see: Native v Web apps • Do mobile apps deliver ROI?.3) In China, the most popular activity is mobile IM, followed by search.CINIC (July 2010) reports that the most popular activities in China (which its own data suggests is the world’s largest mobile Web community) are: instant messaging (62 percent); search (48 percent); web music (45 percent); web literature (43 percent); social networking 36 percent; games (21 percent); video (20 percent); email (16 percent); and m-commerce (6 percent).• For more mobile in China see this video: What marketers need to know about mobile in China – JiaZheng, AKQA4) Mobile searches have quadrupled in the last year, according to Google, for many items one in seven searches are now mobile.• 1 in 3 mobile searches are local. After looking up a local business on their smartphone, 61 percent of users called the business and 59 percent visited.• 79 percent of smartphone users use their smartphones to help with shopping• 71 percent of smartphone users that see TV, press or online ad, do a mobile search for more information, but 79 percent of large online advertisers still do not have a mobile optimized site.“It is true across the board. Roughly one in seven searches, even in the smaller categories, are happening on a mobile phone, but how many of you are putting one seventh of your resources into mobile – anyone who hasn’t got mobile only business? Your customer is trying to engage you… it would be like not doing business with your customers on Thursdays.” Jason Spero, Google (Feb 2011).Percentage of searches that are via a mobile deviceCategory Proportion of searchesthat are mobileRestaurants 29.6%Automotive 16.8%Consumer electronics 15.5%Finance and insurance 15.4%;Beauty and personal 14.9%Source: Internal Google Data (February 2011) via: mobiThinking“Whether to have a mobile site or a mobile app and which to develop first depends on what kind of product you have. If most people are going to find you through search then you should optimize your site for mobile Web, but if you think you have a big enough fan base and you can cut through the clutter of getting people to download your app, then you can have a more immersive experience by creating an app.” Chet Fenster, MEC Entertainment (November 2011).• Get your mobile strategy onto the right track with this series of video interviews with the experts from the top creative, interactive and mobile agencies (filmed September-November 2011): • Chet Fenster, MEC • Mike Yonker, Rockfish • ILICCO ELIA, LBi • Russ Lidstone, Euro RSCG • Phillip Clement, Bemoko • Christian Louca, YOCPart E: Mobile apps1) In three years over 300,000 mobile apps have been developed• IDC (December 2010): In 2010 these 300,000+ applications were downloaded 10.9 billion times. IDC predicts that global downloads will reach 76.9 billion in 2014 and will be worth US$35 billion.• ABI Research (October 2011): Predicts that there will be 29 billion apps downloaded in 2011, up from 9 billion in 2010. In Q2 Android overtook Apple in terms of app downloads with 44 percent of downloads, compared to Apple’s 31 percent.• Canalys (June 2011): Predicts that direct revenue from the sale of apps, in-app purchases and subscriptions across smartphones and tablets will be $7.3 billion in 2011 rising to $36.7 billion by 2015.• Canalys expects MNOs to take more of a share of app revenues, exploiting their relationships with the customer and the serious problem of application discovery for both developers and users in the overcrowded vendor app stores.2) Demand for app stores is expected to peak in 2013.• ABI Research (May 2010) predicts that app stores will slowly decline as subscribers migrate from download apps to mobile Web sites and more popular download apps, such as social networking, are preloaded on mobile devices.3) The average price of a mobile app is falling rapidly on all vendor app stores, except Android.• The Distimo report (January 2011) finds that in December the average the cost of downloading an app was considerably cheaper than it was in January 2010. Distimo makes analytics tools for mobile apps.Change in price of a download app over 12 months, 2010 according to DistimoApp store Apple Blackberry Ovi (Nokia) AndroidNumber of apps 300,000 18,000 130,000 25,000Price change All apps -12 -24 +1 -29Top 100 apps -19 -24 -9 -61Source: The Distimo report (January 2011) via: mobiThinking4) One in four mobile apps once downloaded is never used again.• A study by Localytics (January 2010) found that many apps are downloaded, tried once and then discarded.• “Tracking downloads is often a first step to gauging an app’s success, but download stats often provide an incomplete and inflated view. High download numbers always feel great, but if those customers never open the app or abandon it after just a few uses, those high download numbers are really part of a high churn rate.” – Localytics study (Localytics makes analytics tools for mobile apps).Number of apps downloaded and used just once according to LocalyticsQuarter January-March 2010 April-June 2010 July-September 2010 October-December 2010Proportion of apps used only once 22% 26% 26% 26%Source: Localytics (January 2011) via: mobiThinking• mobiThinking note on mobile apps: some app stores, including the largest, Apple, keep download stats for individual apps a secret, which saves the publishers from embarrassment. Thus you will only hear download figures for the more successful apps, but while these sound impressive, they don’t mean much without the retention rate i.e. how many people are still using the app a week, month, or year later.5) The most used apps across all smartphones – note that’s used as opposed to downloaded – in the US according to Nielsen (June 2010), are Facebook, Google Maps and The Weather Channel (TWC). The most popular categories are games; news; maps; social networking and music.• On average US feature-phone users have 10 apps on board and smartphone users have 22 apps (of which iPhone users have the most with 37).• The Facebook App has been downloaded 100 million times from the independent app store GetJar, according to GetJar (December 2010) (making this the most downloaded app from any app store).mobiThinking says: the irony is that this is not a download app it’s a short cut to the Facebook mobile site – Facebook is a Web app, available for anyone with any Web-enabled handset.• For more on mobile apps see: It’s all about the design • Native v Web apps • Do mobile apps deliver ROI? • Q&A with GetJar.Searching for the right mobile agency or mobile ad network?• mobiThinking guide to mobile agencies• mobiThinking guide to mobile ad networks• We update our stats regularly. Follow us on Twitter for updates: @mobithinkingPart F: Mobile payment, including m-commerce, near-field communications/contactless payments, m-ticketing and m-coupons.1) Worldwide mobile payments (m-payments) are growing strongly, but will still only be worth a fraction of e-commerce payments:• N.B. definitions of m-payments may vary.• Gartner (July 2011): there will be 141.1 million m-payment users in 2011 (up 38.2 percent from 2010), m-payments will total US $86.1 billion in 2011 (up 75.9 percent from 2010). This reduces previous forecasts.• Money transfers and prepaid top-ups account for most of m-payments in developing markets.• Merchandise purchases (e.g. via Amazon, eBay and Apple App Store) account for most of m-payments in developed markets.• NFC is being overhyped and will not be mainstream for at least four years. SMS and USSD will continue to dominate payments in developing markets and WAP payments will dominate in developed world.• Yankee Group (June 2011): Global mobile transactions predicted to be US$241 billion in 2011 growing to more than $1 Trillion by 2015.• EMEA is the mobile money hot spot, says Yankee, accounting for 41 percent of mobile transactions value in 2011, compared to 35 percent in North America, 22 percent in Asia-Pacific and just 1 percent in Latin America.• Portio Research (March 2010): There were 81.3 million people worldwide using their mobile device to make payments (including in-app payments, mobile ticketing and mobile coupons) in 2009. By the end of 2014, this is forecasted to rise to nearly 490 million (8 percent of mobile subscribers).• The volume of m-payments i.e. face value of purchases and transactions was US$68.7 billion in 2009, rising to US$633.4 billion by end-2014.• Juniper Research (July 2011 ): Total value of mobile payments for digital and physical goods, money transfers and NFC (Near Field Communications) transactions will reach $670bn by 2015, up from $240bn this year.• Estimates include mobile ticketing, NFC contactless payments, physical goods purchases and money transfers.• Active mobile money users will double by 2013.• Digital goods is the largest segment and will account for nearly 40% of the market in 2015.• Juniper Research (June 2011): 1.8 billion consumers globally will buy digital goods via their mobile in 2011, this will rise to 2.5 billion in 2015.For example, in 2015, more than 400 million people on the Indian Sub-Continent will purchase digital goods via mobile.• But IDC (May 2010) believes that in EMEA, m-payments will take off slower than m-banking, forecasting that less than 13 percent of mobile subscribers will be registered to use m-payments and volume of m-payments will be no more than $125 billion. Thus m-payments will take off slower than many industry observers hope, due to the complexity and set-up costs for retailers. However, strong growth in m-banking will lay the foundations for growth in mobile payments.2) While the rest of the world trial/dream of payment by mobile, in Japan it is already a way of life.ComScore (February 2011) research indicates that in December 2010 alone, 9.8 million or 10 percent of Japanese mobile subscribers used their mobile wallet to make a purchase. 7.6 million consumers made a purchase in a retail/convenience store; 3.2 million purchased from a vending machine; 2.7 million paid for public transport; 2.6 million purchased in a grocery stores; and 1.5 million paid a restaurant bill all using their mobile phone, instead of cash, card or check.• 47 million Japanese have adopted tap-and-go phones in three years – this is one of the fastest roll outs of electronic products in human history. East Asians will continue lead this market because governments and industry stop inter-industry haggling enabling projects that benefit the nation go ahead. (IDTechEx (R&M), Feb 2011).3) But tap-and-go m-payments will take off elsewhere as the world adopts near-field communications and more NFC-enabled phones hit the market:• Juniper Research (June 2011): Global NFC m-payment transactions will be almost US$50 billion worldwide by 2014. 20 countries are expected to launch NFC services in the next 18 months.• Yankee Group (June 2011): There will be 7 million NFC-enabled phones in 2011 growing to 203 million in 2015.• Juniper Research (April 2011): Almost 300 million or 1 in 5 or smartphones worldwide will be NFC-enabled by 2014.• IE Market Research (July 2010): NFC will be 32.8 percent of global m-payments transactions – estimated at US$1.13 trillion – in 2014. Volume shipments of NFC phones are expected in Western Europe and North America in 2011.• Frost & Sullivan (February 2011): 863 million units or 53 percent of new handsets will be NFC-enabled in 2015. The total payment value for NFC globally will exceed €110 billion in 2015.• Celent (November 2010): There will be 169 million users of mobile contactless payment in China in 2013. Total number of m-payment users will be 410 million, making China the largest m-payments market in the world.• NFC Chip Makers predict there will be at least 40-50 million NFC phones on the market by 2011, based on orders for NFC chip sets (NFC Times, Oct, 2010).• mobiThinking note on NFC: recent announcements from everyone from Google to Vodafone has created a media frenzy around NFC. The fact is that seven years after the foundation of the NFC forum there are almost no NFC phones on the market. NFC more than any other technology requires close cooperation of all parties – this was the secret of success of FeliCa in Japan (which isn’t NFC, but the model is similar). Find out more: The essential ingredients for the success of NFC4) Shopping on the mobile Web, i.e. m-commerce will reach US$119 billion in 2015, predicts ABI Research(February 2010), that’s about 8 percent of the total e-commerce market:• Today, Japan is king of m-commerce, where mobile Web shopping exceeded US$10 billion in 2009, making the US$1.2 billion bought in the US by mobile look trifling.For more insight on Japan, see this: guide to mobile in Japan• M-commerce in Europe is expected to outpace the US by the end of 2010.• Long-term growth in m-commerce will come from developing nations where mobile is virtually the only way to access the Internet.5) In the US, m-commerce revenues are expected to hit $6 billion by the end of 2011, growing to $31 billion by 2016, according to Forrester Research (June 2011).• But m-commerce will only be 2 percent of e-commerce in 2011 and 7 percent of e-commerce in 2016.• m-commerce includes mobile media and content, retail, travel, coupons/deals, and services• 91 percent of online retailers in the US have a mobile strategy in place or in development, according to Shop.org/Forrester Research (May 2011)• 48 percent of US retailers surveyed had a mobile-optimized website; 35 percent had deployed an iPhone app; 15 percent deployed an Android app; 15 percent had deployed an iPad app.6) Four out of five US smartphone owners, use phone to help with shopping, according to Google/Ipsos (April 2011). A survey of 5013 US smartphone owners found:• 79 percent use a smartphone to help with shopping and 70 percent use phone in store.• Of those: 54 percent located a retailer; 49 percent compare prices to help decide; 34 percent search in-store inventory; 44 percent read reviews and product info; 46 percent called a retailer; 40 percent looked for promotions and discounts; 28 percent used a discount coupon on phone.• 74 percent of smartphone shoppers have made purchase following research on phone.• Of those: 76 percent purchased in store; 59 percent purchased on their PCs; 35 percent purchased on their smartphones; 27 percent purchased via a mobile site; 22 percent purchased through a mobile app.• The average annual spend on mobile purchases was US$300.7) Top m-commerce retailers: • In 2009, the top m-commerce retailer according to Altimeter Group (June 2010) was Taobao, (part of Chinese Web giant Alibaba Group) with an estimated $800 million in revenues.• In 2010, eBay consumers bought and sold over US$2 billion worth of merchandise on eBay via mobile, up from $600 million in 2009. According to Steve Yankovich, vice president mobile at eBay, this $2 billion in gross merchandise volume is derived 78 percent via its numerous mobile apps and 22 percent mobile web.• “In the last twelve months, customers around the world have ordered more than US$1 billion of products from Amazon using a mobile device," according to Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com (July 2010).8) 1 in 8 mobile subscribers will use m-ticketing in 2015 for airline, rail and bus travel, festivals, cinemas and sports events.• Jupiter Research (March 2011): By 2015, over 750 million users will either have a ticket delivered to their mobile phone or buy a ticket with their phone, compared to 230 million today. Ticket delivery will be by SMS, bar codes, mobile web, smartphone apps or NFC.• Jupiter Research (April 2011): 500 million people worldwide to use their mobiles as metro and bus tickets by 2015. This is over five times growth from 2010.• Outside Japan (which uses contactless payments, similar to NFC) systems in operation typically use SMS or bar codes, as are currently used in Stockholm and Prague.• NFC-based systems will start to take off from 2013.• Jupiter Research (March 2011): In 2010, airlines issued 160 million mobile boarding passes. By 2013, this will be 480 million or one in seven boarding passes. Today 30 airlines offer mobile boarding passes, half of these also offer mobile ticket booking and purchasing.9) M-coupons will dominate mobile retail marketing spend until 2013, according to Juniper Research (March 2010):• Mobile retail will exceed US$12 billion by 2014 (mobile retail is defined as m-coupon redemption values, smart poster fees and advertising expenditure).• The mobile retail sector would initially be dominated by coupons, but mobile advertising expenditure will exceed coupon redemption values by 2013- The m-coupon service of McDonald’s Japan is used by 4.5 million users, according to Infinita (March 2010).- The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) (October 2010) plans to use m-vouchers to deliver food aid to 40,000 Iraqi refugees in Syria by the end of 2010."Mobile handsets are in an excellent position to become the primary digital channel for providers of banking and related financial services in emerging markets” – Berg Insight.Part G: Mobile financial services, including m-banking and money transfers1) Mobile financial services (MFS) (m-banking, m-wallets, remittance/transfers etc) are growing fast:• Yankee Group (June 2011) predicts that there will be 500 million m-banking users globally by 2015.• Currently, 27 percent of all survey respondents use mobile banking--far more than use m-commerce (13 percent), mobile coupons (11 percent) and mobile payments (9 percent).• Berg Insight (April 2010) estimates that users of m-banking and related services (including money transfers) doubled between 2008 and 2009 to 55 million and will double again in 2010. In 2015 there will be 894 million users globally. Growth is being driven by efforts by operators and banks in developing countries (particularly in Asia) to bank the unbanked.• Global Industry Analysts (GIA) (February 2010) predicts the global customer base for m-banking will reach 1.1 billion by the year 2015.• ABI Research (January 2009) forecasts that in 2013, there will be nearly half a billion customers of MFS, including m-banking, mobile domestic person-to-person payments (i.e. money transfers) and international person-to-person payments.2) Asia will be the key market for MFS, driven by initiatives to bank the unbanked and money transfers:• Berg Insight: More than half of global MFS customers will be in Asia Pacific – Middle East and Africa is also expected to be important market – as mobile operators drive initiatives to bank the unbanked.• GIA: Asia-Pacific will emerge as the predominant MFS market in terms of customer base. In Middle East and Africa, the need to provide financial services to remote areas will be central to the growth of m-banking.• For more insight into MFS in developing nations, see: The insider's guide to banking the unbanked.3) In developed nations m-banking will be driven by banks:• GIA: In North America and Europe, m-banking is extension of online banking, as banks respond to growth of mobile Web. But in Europe, m-banking is in early stages, driven by convenience and value-add rather than revenue generation.• Berg Insight: Evolving from traditional/online banking; m-banking will attract 115 million users in Europe and 86 million users in North America, by 2015.• ABI: Banking institutions will be the major promoters of MFS, as it helps to increase customer ‘stickiness,’ help banks cut costs and automate, and most importantly, to reach the unbanked.• ABI: In the US, Bank of America is a leader of m-banking. Launched in May 2007 it now has 1.5 million subscribers.4) Remittance/transfers by mobile is growing much faster than m-banking (driven by developing nations)• ABI Research (July 2009) predicts that 170 million mobile subscribers worldwide will make domestic person-to-person payments (i.e. transfers) in 2011 – that's three times as many as those that will conduct traditional banking functions by mobile. This is driven by the enthusiasm for such services in developing world often from previously ‘unbanked’ people.• Berg Insight predicts international money transfers will increasingly be done by mobile. By 2015 3–15 percent of transfers handled by agent networks today will be carried out by mobile handset (worth US$1.2–6.2 billion in revenues to the mobile industry).
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