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Use of Data to
Reduce Wind
Energy Costs
Machine to Machine Learning
for the Wind Industry
We are Fluitec Wind
We are a machine to machine learning company
focused on improving performance
© 2011 Fluitec International. All rights reserved.
Fluitec Offices as Viewed from Space
USA
Belgium
China
Singapore
Awarded $3.3M
through the New
Jersey Clean Energy
Manufacturing Fund to
accelerate adoption of
Technology to Reduce
the Cost of Wind
Energy. Matched by
leading European
Cleantech VCs.
An award winning
company and a stellar
team with unparalleled
expertise.
“Most Promising
Innovation”
“People’s Choice
Award”
Fluitec Wind currently monitors
>5,000 turbines: 8 GW
Vestas V82, GE 1.5, & Acciona 1.5
turbines are best represented
Fluitec Wind has the Largest Aggregated Database
of Diagnostic & Operational Data in the World
Acciona, 34%
Vestas, 39%
GE, 13%
Suzlon, 4%
Gamesa, 5%
Mitsubishi, 2%
Nordex, 3%
WTG Goal: Thrive in Variability
Wind turbines have high variability
and are expensive to access.
Therefore significant remote
monitoring capabilities exist.
High Variability is also dealt with via specific key
components. Most are rotating.
>60% of Unscheduled Downtime is on Nacelle
Rotating Components.
>40% of total downtime is unscheduled
>80% of downtime on lubricated components is unscheduled
Problem
Component
TOTAL Downtime
Events
Total Downtime
(days)
Unscheduled
Downtime
(days)
Unscheduled
Proportion
Lubricated
Component
Downtime
(days)
Lubricated
Component
Unscheduled
Downtime
- - Yes No
Gearbox 2300 802 1498 1,750 1,500 86% 1,750 1,500
Generator 1965 1651 314 834 595 71% 834 595
Yaw 603 272 331 253 216 85% 253 216
Hydraulic System 37 3 34 6 0 0% 6 0
Pitch Blade 956 564 392 547 389 71% -
Rotor 306 288 18 80 71 89% -
Other/Electrical 23988 3780 20208 5,264 1,039 20% -
Grid 430 6 424 37 1 3% -
Anemometer 12 7 5 2 2 100% -
30,598 7,374 23,224 8,773 3,811 43% 2,844 2,311
Unscheduled
Events
What data is attractive and applicable?
M2M
Analytics
Work Orders
Oil Analysis Data
Operational Configuration
Weather Data
Existing
Existing Existing
Existing Existing
SCADA Alerts & Sensors
You have existing data with immediate predictive
value. We can utilize this without any capital expense
to identify and reduce risks.
Unique Extraction of Value from Data
Genetic:
Equipment
Permutation
Location
>20 Input Attributes
Operational:
SCADA
O&M Logs
Insurance Claims
>1000 Outputs
We aggregate your data to enhance signal to noise
detection. Allowing for noisy, small datasets to be
utilized. We can corroborate the reliability of any data
point and use. We also report this quality so you can
improve in the future.
Diagnostic:
Sensors
Production
Weather
Oil Analysis
Vibration
>500 Input Attributes
Oil Analysis is the deepest and
widest diagnostic data set and
perfect for such analyses if unlocked.
We utilize “fingerprinting” technology on this big
data. Further minimizing the effect of outliers or poor
data. Similar to how doctors use blood analysis, and
the police use criminal data.
We aggregate global data to have a map of good and
poor states of various turbine permutations. Fleets of
various ages and models become predictable.
Current database size
is 8 GW, with an avg
farm age of 5 years
Allows an accurate method
to identify turbines that are
following a specific failure
mode or pattern. Has a
proven 95% accuracy in
gearbox failure prediction.
Finally, we match “fingerprints” to poor states, not
simply identifying “abnormal” turbines. This drastically
increases the predictive value of data. Police catch
criminals by matching to known offenders.
NN
N
Three Algorithmic Steps to Creating a Predictive Map
1. Similarity
Define the similarity
between each point
in time to every other
point in time
2. Cluster
Cluster the points in
time based on their
similarity
3. Severity
Asses the severity of
each cluster
Short Case Study: Multi-Attribute Alarms
In the following we will focus on the limitations of
individual attribute alarms, and discuss how we
develop multi-attribute alarms. The discussion is
centered on gearbox oil analysis, as it provides a large
number of attributes to consider, and the individual
attribute approach is particularly flawed. However, the
fundamentals of our recommendations should be
exercised on all turbine level data: temperatures,
speeds, direction, etc.
Disclaimer
Copper Iron Silicon
50 100% 100 99% 60 99%
30 99% 50 96% 45 96%
1 25% 1 16% 30 85%
Visc40 Oil Age PQ Index
384 99% 1691 90% 15 91%
320 61% 715 50% 8 50%
256 20% 178 10% 1 21%
Individual Attribute Alarms Are Not Working &
Are Not Predictive
Within an analysis of 25,000
samples: ~99% of the time, the
individual values received are
below the critical limits.
Average Visc40 and Iron prior
to gearbox failure is 318 and
11, respectively.
Individual attribute alarms are
inherently less predictive.
Percent of Oil Sample Data Below
Adjacent Value
Include:
1. Genetic Attributes
2. Multiple Attributes to define an Alarm Band
3. Rate of Change Attributes
Ideally use all of the above
Three ways to make Better Alarm Levels
Use Genetic Attributes to define Bands
Simply looking at
attributes in the
context of the
equipment
permutation gives
a clear picture of
what are normal
levels. Especially
Ingression and
Wear elements
Tune Multi-Attribute Alarms to Failures
Clustering by
Gearbox, one can
see a profile or
“fingerprint” that
precedes failure
1. In the vast majority of instances just prior to failure,
oil attributes were within the “acceptable range”
provided by OEMs.
2. The pronounced difference in the profile prior to
failure, versus in general can be seen via multi-
attribute bands.
3. Rate of Change thresholds are more effective in
highly variable environments.
Case Study Summary
What does Fluitec Wind Do?
Raw
Unstructured
Data: equipment
model/year,
SCADA alerts,
production data,
oil analysis
Usable
Data
6-10 weeks
How to Get Started: Send Us Raw Data & We Provide Deliverables 1-3
Data
Cleaned &
Structured:
Returned in
any format
Analytical
Reports
Expert Risk
Assessment
Provided as
Report
Web portal:
visualization,
analysis, and
dynamic work
order toolkit
Provide Raw Data: best results are if
sample set has 2,000 turbine-years
of data, high failure rates, and/or use
of popular equipment permutation
(Vestas V82, GE 1.5, AW1500)
M2M Analytics
Slashing O&M Costs in the Wind Industry
Amar Pradhan
CTO
www.FluitecWind.com

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Amar Pradhan: 2013 Sandia National Laboratoies Wind Plant Reliability Workshop

  • 1. Use of Data to Reduce Wind Energy Costs Machine to Machine Learning for the Wind Industry
  • 3. We are a machine to machine learning company focused on improving performance © 2011 Fluitec International. All rights reserved. Fluitec Offices as Viewed from Space USA Belgium China Singapore
  • 4. Awarded $3.3M through the New Jersey Clean Energy Manufacturing Fund to accelerate adoption of Technology to Reduce the Cost of Wind Energy. Matched by leading European Cleantech VCs.
  • 5. An award winning company and a stellar team with unparalleled expertise. “Most Promising Innovation” “People’s Choice Award”
  • 6. Fluitec Wind currently monitors >5,000 turbines: 8 GW Vestas V82, GE 1.5, & Acciona 1.5 turbines are best represented Fluitec Wind has the Largest Aggregated Database of Diagnostic & Operational Data in the World Acciona, 34% Vestas, 39% GE, 13% Suzlon, 4% Gamesa, 5% Mitsubishi, 2% Nordex, 3%
  • 7. WTG Goal: Thrive in Variability
  • 8. Wind turbines have high variability and are expensive to access. Therefore significant remote monitoring capabilities exist.
  • 9. High Variability is also dealt with via specific key components. Most are rotating.
  • 10. >60% of Unscheduled Downtime is on Nacelle Rotating Components. >40% of total downtime is unscheduled >80% of downtime on lubricated components is unscheduled Problem Component TOTAL Downtime Events Total Downtime (days) Unscheduled Downtime (days) Unscheduled Proportion Lubricated Component Downtime (days) Lubricated Component Unscheduled Downtime - - Yes No Gearbox 2300 802 1498 1,750 1,500 86% 1,750 1,500 Generator 1965 1651 314 834 595 71% 834 595 Yaw 603 272 331 253 216 85% 253 216 Hydraulic System 37 3 34 6 0 0% 6 0 Pitch Blade 956 564 392 547 389 71% - Rotor 306 288 18 80 71 89% - Other/Electrical 23988 3780 20208 5,264 1,039 20% - Grid 430 6 424 37 1 3% - Anemometer 12 7 5 2 2 100% - 30,598 7,374 23,224 8,773 3,811 43% 2,844 2,311 Unscheduled Events
  • 11. What data is attractive and applicable?
  • 12. M2M Analytics Work Orders Oil Analysis Data Operational Configuration Weather Data Existing Existing Existing Existing Existing SCADA Alerts & Sensors You have existing data with immediate predictive value. We can utilize this without any capital expense to identify and reduce risks.
  • 13. Unique Extraction of Value from Data
  • 14. Genetic: Equipment Permutation Location >20 Input Attributes Operational: SCADA O&M Logs Insurance Claims >1000 Outputs We aggregate your data to enhance signal to noise detection. Allowing for noisy, small datasets to be utilized. We can corroborate the reliability of any data point and use. We also report this quality so you can improve in the future. Diagnostic: Sensors Production Weather Oil Analysis Vibration >500 Input Attributes
  • 15. Oil Analysis is the deepest and widest diagnostic data set and perfect for such analyses if unlocked. We utilize “fingerprinting” technology on this big data. Further minimizing the effect of outliers or poor data. Similar to how doctors use blood analysis, and the police use criminal data.
  • 16. We aggregate global data to have a map of good and poor states of various turbine permutations. Fleets of various ages and models become predictable. Current database size is 8 GW, with an avg farm age of 5 years
  • 17. Allows an accurate method to identify turbines that are following a specific failure mode or pattern. Has a proven 95% accuracy in gearbox failure prediction. Finally, we match “fingerprints” to poor states, not simply identifying “abnormal” turbines. This drastically increases the predictive value of data. Police catch criminals by matching to known offenders. NN
  • 18. N Three Algorithmic Steps to Creating a Predictive Map 1. Similarity Define the similarity between each point in time to every other point in time 2. Cluster Cluster the points in time based on their similarity 3. Severity Asses the severity of each cluster
  • 19. Short Case Study: Multi-Attribute Alarms
  • 20. In the following we will focus on the limitations of individual attribute alarms, and discuss how we develop multi-attribute alarms. The discussion is centered on gearbox oil analysis, as it provides a large number of attributes to consider, and the individual attribute approach is particularly flawed. However, the fundamentals of our recommendations should be exercised on all turbine level data: temperatures, speeds, direction, etc. Disclaimer
  • 21. Copper Iron Silicon 50 100% 100 99% 60 99% 30 99% 50 96% 45 96% 1 25% 1 16% 30 85% Visc40 Oil Age PQ Index 384 99% 1691 90% 15 91% 320 61% 715 50% 8 50% 256 20% 178 10% 1 21% Individual Attribute Alarms Are Not Working & Are Not Predictive Within an analysis of 25,000 samples: ~99% of the time, the individual values received are below the critical limits. Average Visc40 and Iron prior to gearbox failure is 318 and 11, respectively. Individual attribute alarms are inherently less predictive. Percent of Oil Sample Data Below Adjacent Value
  • 22. Include: 1. Genetic Attributes 2. Multiple Attributes to define an Alarm Band 3. Rate of Change Attributes Ideally use all of the above Three ways to make Better Alarm Levels
  • 23. Use Genetic Attributes to define Bands Simply looking at attributes in the context of the equipment permutation gives a clear picture of what are normal levels. Especially Ingression and Wear elements
  • 24. Tune Multi-Attribute Alarms to Failures Clustering by Gearbox, one can see a profile or “fingerprint” that precedes failure
  • 25. 1. In the vast majority of instances just prior to failure, oil attributes were within the “acceptable range” provided by OEMs. 2. The pronounced difference in the profile prior to failure, versus in general can be seen via multi- attribute bands. 3. Rate of Change thresholds are more effective in highly variable environments. Case Study Summary
  • 26. What does Fluitec Wind Do?
  • 27. Raw Unstructured Data: equipment model/year, SCADA alerts, production data, oil analysis Usable Data 6-10 weeks How to Get Started: Send Us Raw Data & We Provide Deliverables 1-3 Data Cleaned & Structured: Returned in any format Analytical Reports Expert Risk Assessment Provided as Report Web portal: visualization, analysis, and dynamic work order toolkit Provide Raw Data: best results are if sample set has 2,000 turbine-years of data, high failure rates, and/or use of popular equipment permutation (Vestas V82, GE 1.5, AW1500)
  • 28. M2M Analytics Slashing O&M Costs in the Wind Industry Amar Pradhan CTO www.FluitecWind.com