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Capella Week 8 H4D Stanford 2016

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Stanford University
Stanford University

agile, bmnt, business model, corporate innovation, customer development,dod,nsa, diux, h4d, hacking for defense, lean, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, steve blank

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Capella Space We are providing low-cost SAR imagery satellite constellation with a high revisit rate. Payam Banazadeh Aerospace/Business Timon Ruban Machine Learning Isaac Matthews Aerospace Jose Ignacio del Villar Business # interviews this week: 2 users 1 buyers 5 experts # total interviews: 85 Redacted
MVP: Detection of ships at sea SAR image of 3x3 meter resolution. Taken in SF Bay out of Treasure Island on 12/12/2011 at 14:23:52. Acquisition ended at 14:24:00 SAR Image Processed image (white means ship, black means no ship Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Experiment #1 - Indonesia cares about IUU Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Indonesia has an illegal fishing problem, but it actually cares about solving this problem Interviewed state department experts in Indonesia and IUU Indonesia is complicated. There is a coordination issue between Navy, Coast Guard, department of justice, and police. They are over subscribed with “donors” and dont have the capacity to process all the help Interviewing ICITAP, FAD, EAP, and (hopefully) someone in Fisheries ministry Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Illegal Fishing -- Maritime Domain Awareness Navy Police Fisheries Ministries Department of Justice (ICITAP) East Asia Pacific Bureau FAD -- u.s. Commercial sector Indonesia desk - state department Redacted Redacted RedactedRedactedRedacted Redacted Redacted RedactedRe da cte d
Experiment #2 - Coast Guard cont’d - MVP & Problem scope Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Drug smuggling is a big problem and a lot of resources are spent on solving it. Our MVP (AIS overlayed with SAR images) is helpful for Law Enforcement Duty Officers Talk to Intelligence Analyst and Chief of Law Enforcement @ USCG @Scope @MVP Understand who the decision makers are? From whom do we need buy-in/support to deploy our technology? => Where do we continue the conversations, once the technology becomes ready? $1.3-1.5 billion dollar budgeted for statutory mission “Drug Interdiction” In 2014: 108,534lbs of Marihuana and 198,636lbs of Cocaine seized by USCG it’s an additional tool in the analyst’s tool belt. But it can be the critical one! Recreational boats without AIS are a problem - looking at patterns (who races through fishing grounds) can help identify illegal activity Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Experiment #3- Imaging can reduce piracy and oil fraud - Africa Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Earth imaging of Eastern (Gulf of Aden) and Western (Gulf of Guinea) maritime borders will support global efforts to reduce Somali piracy and Nigerian oil bunkering specifically Interviewing Stanford Professors (Somalia - Laitin, Acharya), policy makers, NGOs, and other personal research Interview experts at State Department, World Bank, African Development Bank, World Economic Forum, Pula Group, Former Ambassador, Stanford professors Globally, 246 reported incidents of piracy, all 5 cases of kidnapping/ransom off coast of Nigeria (IMB- PRC); 0 Somali attacks reported in 2015 Oil theft/fraud costing Nigeria $1.5B/month (650,000bbl/day) Unresolved: Heightened patrols in Gulf of Aden; need better understanding of claimed losses ~$3B/yr in spite of reduction in piracy Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Experiment #4 - Hedge Funds as potential customer Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Hedge Funds are still a potential customer that we should actively pursue Interviewed Jack Kim, Chief Risk Officer at Data Capital Management Imagery is not regularly used in the financial area. It serves as an ancillary piece in their algorithms. Also, financial firms will want to create the algorithms in-house (if everyone has the algorithms there is no edge) Hedge Funds are not a customer we should focus at the moment. Even if they could be a customer in the future, our pivot to launch in equatorial orbits decreases the value they could get from our technology Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
• Deploy 1 to 3 satellites and sell the images by September 2017. • Finish the deployment of 40 satellites by 2020. • Construction of payload for testing • Development of image analysis algorithms • Construction of satellite under required constraints • Data Analytics providers (Orbital Insight, Omni Earth, etc) • Sponsors (military and commercial) • Satellite structure providers • Satellite component providers • Orbital communication providers • Satellite launch providers • Get a customer in a country in the Equatorial orbit (Government) • Get commercial customers interested enough in our tech • The DHS and other government departments adopt our technology: • - USCG: to thwart drug trafficking from Ecuador and Colombia • Summer ground demonstration: $50k • First satellite: $6 million (including operations) • Subsequent satellites: $3 million each • Final constellation: $150 million total over 3 years • Funding to perform payload test during Summer 2016 • Government advocacy for our technology: DHS • Contacts in the Equatorial countries’ government agencies. Beneficiaries Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs Buy-In/Support Deployment Value PropositionKey Activities Key Resources Commercial Satellite imagery resellers Illegal fishing in Indonesia Oil tankering in Nigeria Stop pirating at sea in Somalia Key Partners USCG Law Enforcement DO Information Watch Officer USCG - Stop more boats carrying drugs from Ecuador/Colombia - Reduce the cost of drug intervention operations NGA Provide better intelligence to other agencies/services Commercial Satellite Imagery Resellers: they can offer better and more diverse products Illegal fishing: tracking of ships that are doing suspicious activities at sea. Better law enforcement. NGA Intelligence Analysts Services in the DoD?? SOCOM Government sector driving demand (Indonesia, Nigeria, Ecuador, Colombia) Coast Guard Deputy Commandant for Operations (CG-DCO) Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Products & Services Run counter-drug Operations Catch “bad guys on boats” Customer Jobs - “The sea is vast” -Low budget (=> cannot deploy to many resources) -Hard to know where to look/patrol Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers -Information on where boats are in patrol area lets duty officers deploy assets more strategically and more efficiently -High revisit rate enables duty officers to see smugglers even on quick runs (3-5h) - Stop more boats carrying drugs from Ecuador/Colombia - Reduce the cost of drug intervention operations Value Proposition Canvas - USCG Law Enforcement DO -provide locations of boats without AIS in desired area (extracted from SAR images) -web-based UI -modern machine learning/computer vision techniques can scan many images for boats and cover vast areas -locations of boats without AIS can queue where to send patrol vessels/aircrafts Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Products & Services Deliver geospatial intelligence to, warfighters, intelligence professionals and first responders Customer Jobs - Insufficient knowledge (images) of areas interesting for DoD services - Over-tasking of analysts - Backlog of un-extruded data Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers - Global Coverage - On-Demand SAR images made possible by a high revisit rate - Data conditioning alleviates analyst tasking - Extrusions may align with current tagging practices -Receive high-resolution imagery from arbitrary places on-demand to make it easy to deliver insight - ??? Value Proposition Canvas - NGA -radar satellites -high-resolution SAR and InSAR images Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Products & Services -Efficient exploration and production and delivery of fossil fuels Customer Jobs -Temporal and spatial resolution not sufficient -high cost while oil is cheap Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers -Inform oil production per well -Predict future surface changes based on historical data -Detect oil spills before they become a huge problem -Reduce maintenance cost of tiltmeters -Reduce manpower needed to maintain tiltmeters -Able to provide long term predictions/analysis -Precise surface deformation analysis to estimate well productivity -Efficient resource allocation directly to trouble spots (oil spills) Value Proposition Canvas - Commercial - Hedge Fund Investors, Oil/Mining, Agriculture -radar satellites -image analysis software -web-based UI Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
Additional Slides
Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
Ship size: 30 m Last seen: 7N, 128E 8:03am Priority level: 1 Note: No AIS, drifting, fish net Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
Ship size: 30 m Last seen: 7N, 128E 8:03am Priority level: 1 Note: No AIS, drifting, fish net Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
Ship size: 45 m Last seen: 3S, 97E 9:10am Priority level: 12 Note: AIS turned off Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
Net size: 1km long Last seen: 3S, 88E 10:10am Priority level: 2 Note: Nets, drifting, no boat Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
Net size: 1km long Last seen: 3S, 88E 10:10am Priority level: 2 Note: Nets, drifting, no boat Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
What other problems exist in that region? Illegal Fishing is not only in Indonesia … West africa 37% of IUU Illegal Drugs in Colombia/Ecuador Economic activity in Port of Singapore Piracy in Somalia Image resellers Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted

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Capella Week 8 H4D Stanford 2016

  • 1. Capella Space We are providing low-cost SAR imagery satellite constellation with a high revisit rate. Payam Banazadeh Aerospace/Business Timon Ruban Machine Learning Isaac Matthews Aerospace Jose Ignacio del Villar Business # interviews this week: 2 users 1 buyers 5 experts # total interviews: 85 Redacted
  • 2. MVP: Detection of ships at sea SAR image of 3x3 meter resolution. Taken in SF Bay out of Treasure Island on 12/12/2011 at 14:23:52. Acquisition ended at 14:24:00 SAR Image Processed image (white means ship, black means no ship Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 3. Experiment #1 - Indonesia cares about IUU Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Indonesia has an illegal fishing problem, but it actually cares about solving this problem Interviewed state department experts in Indonesia and IUU Indonesia is complicated. There is a coordination issue between Navy, Coast Guard, department of justice, and police. They are over subscribed with “donors” and dont have the capacity to process all the help Interviewing ICITAP, FAD, EAP, and (hopefully) someone in Fisheries ministry Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 4. Illegal Fishing -- Maritime Domain Awareness Navy Police Fisheries Ministries Department of Justice (ICITAP) East Asia Pacific Bureau FAD -- u.s. Commercial sector Indonesia desk - state department Redacted Redacted RedactedRedactedRedacted Redacted Redacted RedactedRe da cte d
  • 5. Experiment #2 - Coast Guard cont’d - MVP & Problem scope Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Drug smuggling is a big problem and a lot of resources are spent on solving it. Our MVP (AIS overlayed with SAR images) is helpful for Law Enforcement Duty Officers Talk to Intelligence Analyst and Chief of Law Enforcement @ USCG @Scope @MVP Understand who the decision makers are? From whom do we need buy-in/support to deploy our technology? => Where do we continue the conversations, once the technology becomes ready? $1.3-1.5 billion dollar budgeted for statutory mission “Drug Interdiction” In 2014: 108,534lbs of Marihuana and 198,636lbs of Cocaine seized by USCG it’s an additional tool in the analyst’s tool belt. But it can be the critical one! Recreational boats without AIS are a problem - looking at patterns (who races through fishing grounds) can help identify illegal activity Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 6. Experiment #3- Imaging can reduce piracy and oil fraud - Africa Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Earth imaging of Eastern (Gulf of Aden) and Western (Gulf of Guinea) maritime borders will support global efforts to reduce Somali piracy and Nigerian oil bunkering specifically Interviewing Stanford Professors (Somalia - Laitin, Acharya), policy makers, NGOs, and other personal research Interview experts at State Department, World Bank, African Development Bank, World Economic Forum, Pula Group, Former Ambassador, Stanford professors Globally, 246 reported incidents of piracy, all 5 cases of kidnapping/ransom off coast of Nigeria (IMB- PRC); 0 Somali attacks reported in 2015 Oil theft/fraud costing Nigeria $1.5B/month (650,000bbl/day) Unresolved: Heightened patrols in Gulf of Aden; need better understanding of claimed losses ~$3B/yr in spite of reduction in piracy Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 7. Experiment #4 - Hedge Funds as potential customer Hypothesis Experiment Result Action Hedge Funds are still a potential customer that we should actively pursue Interviewed Jack Kim, Chief Risk Officer at Data Capital Management Imagery is not regularly used in the financial area. It serves as an ancillary piece in their algorithms. Also, financial firms will want to create the algorithms in-house (if everyone has the algorithms there is no edge) Hedge Funds are not a customer we should focus at the moment. Even if they could be a customer in the future, our pivot to launch in equatorial orbits decreases the value they could get from our technology Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 8. • Deploy 1 to 3 satellites and sell the images by September 2017. • Finish the deployment of 40 satellites by 2020. • Construction of payload for testing • Development of image analysis algorithms • Construction of satellite under required constraints • Data Analytics providers (Orbital Insight, Omni Earth, etc) • Sponsors (military and commercial) • Satellite structure providers • Satellite component providers • Orbital communication providers • Satellite launch providers • Get a customer in a country in the Equatorial orbit (Government) • Get commercial customers interested enough in our tech • The DHS and other government departments adopt our technology: • - USCG: to thwart drug trafficking from Ecuador and Colombia • Summer ground demonstration: $50k • First satellite: $6 million (including operations) • Subsequent satellites: $3 million each • Final constellation: $150 million total over 3 years • Funding to perform payload test during Summer 2016 • Government advocacy for our technology: DHS • Contacts in the Equatorial countries’ government agencies. Beneficiaries Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs Buy-In/Support Deployment Value PropositionKey Activities Key Resources Commercial Satellite imagery resellers Illegal fishing in Indonesia Oil tankering in Nigeria Stop pirating at sea in Somalia Key Partners USCG Law Enforcement DO Information Watch Officer USCG - Stop more boats carrying drugs from Ecuador/Colombia - Reduce the cost of drug intervention operations NGA Provide better intelligence to other agencies/services Commercial Satellite Imagery Resellers: they can offer better and more diverse products Illegal fishing: tracking of ships that are doing suspicious activities at sea. Better law enforcement. NGA Intelligence Analysts Services in the DoD?? SOCOM Government sector driving demand (Indonesia, Nigeria, Ecuador, Colombia) Coast Guard Deputy Commandant for Operations (CG-DCO) Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 9. Products & Services Run counter-drug Operations Catch “bad guys on boats” Customer Jobs - “The sea is vast” -Low budget (=> cannot deploy to many resources) -Hard to know where to look/patrol Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers -Information on where boats are in patrol area lets duty officers deploy assets more strategically and more efficiently -High revisit rate enables duty officers to see smugglers even on quick runs (3-5h) - Stop more boats carrying drugs from Ecuador/Colombia - Reduce the cost of drug intervention operations Value Proposition Canvas - USCG Law Enforcement DO -provide locations of boats without AIS in desired area (extracted from SAR images) -web-based UI -modern machine learning/computer vision techniques can scan many images for boats and cover vast areas -locations of boats without AIS can queue where to send patrol vessels/aircrafts Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 10. Products & Services Deliver geospatial intelligence to, warfighters, intelligence professionals and first responders Customer Jobs - Insufficient knowledge (images) of areas interesting for DoD services - Over-tasking of analysts - Backlog of un-extruded data Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers - Global Coverage - On-Demand SAR images made possible by a high revisit rate - Data conditioning alleviates analyst tasking - Extrusions may align with current tagging practices -Receive high-resolution imagery from arbitrary places on-demand to make it easy to deliver insight - ??? Value Proposition Canvas - NGA -radar satellites -high-resolution SAR and InSAR images Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 11. Products & Services -Efficient exploration and production and delivery of fossil fuels Customer Jobs -Temporal and spatial resolution not sufficient -high cost while oil is cheap Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers -Inform oil production per well -Predict future surface changes based on historical data -Detect oil spills before they become a huge problem -Reduce maintenance cost of tiltmeters -Reduce manpower needed to maintain tiltmeters -Able to provide long term predictions/analysis -Precise surface deformation analysis to estimate well productivity -Efficient resource allocation directly to trouble spots (oil spills) Value Proposition Canvas - Commercial - Hedge Fund Investors, Oil/Mining, Agriculture -radar satellites -image analysis software -web-based UI Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted
  • 13. Illegal fishing Possible illegal fishing Legal Suspicions nets/activities Licensed activities Redacted
  • 19. What other problems exist in that region? Illegal Fishing is not only in Indonesia … West africa 37% of IUU Illegal Drugs in Colombia/Ecuador Economic activity in Port of Singapore Piracy in Somalia Image resellers Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted