From a deck that I presented at the SIIA “All About Mobile” conference in November 2011 in San Francisco. It starts with the usual set of slides on the recent history of mobility (and I will keep presenting them until I see no more “I had no clue” faces in an audience), and then goes deeper into Moore’s Law and how we see it continuing for cell phones. An additional journey back in history to the early days of the industrialization and electricity. Companies had to generate their own power (by using wind, water, animals, etc.) and Burden’s Wheel is a good example of one big, giant monolithic effort to do so. Along came Tesla and Westinghouse, and the first power plant “Adam’s Plant” was able to provide about 3x the power, but over a much further distance, and to multiple customers. The concept of an electric utility was born, and what we saw happening was the fall of “enterprise power generation”. Fast forward to 1969, and Douglas Parkhill and John McCarthy came up with the concept of the “Computer Utility”. Today we see multi-$B investments into public cloud infrastructures. In very simple terms, if history in the utility industry is any indicator, we will see enterprise clouds disappear. And as cloud infrastructures scale and get more efficient, and the price of computing goes down (Moore’s Law), developers will find a way to use and instrument that computing power, and make it consumable to enterprises and consumers, which gets us to Jevons’ Paradox. Jevons observed how consumption of energy in England went up as coal power plants got more efficient. All the way to today where we keep the lights on in our homes 24/7, and darkness has actually become a scarce good in some metropolitan areas. Switching to enterprise computing and looking at BEA data on IT assets for the past four decades, we see that prices for IT assets are falling, whereas other assets follow an inflationary path. And as computing gets cheaper, enterprises consume more and more of it (and you can argue so do consumers, aka “Consumerization of IT”). What is striking that with the arrival of the public Internet in ‘90-95 and web companies like Yahoo and Amazon, the mix in consumption is shifting: it’s increasingly going towards software, up from a SW:HW ratio of roughly 1:1 over three decades, to now 3:1. So today, for every $1 spent on hardware, enterprises spend $3 on software. Hence, it seems like enterprises are making use of the public cloud, which would explain the rise of SaaS companies, such Salesforce, SuccessFactors and also Amazon’s AWS. And as the rise of smartphones is only beginning, enterprise mobility will likely drive the trend of an increasing SW:HW ratio further up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the mix go to 10:1 in the next five years as smartphones proliferate and the amount of on-deck and off-deck computing power available to a single device is growing exponentially, the concept of “accelerated acceleratio

1. Mobility – Trends for the Next Decade
San Francisco, November 2011
Lars Kamp
Accenture Mobility Services

2. Contact
Lars Kamp
Accenture Mobility
Suite 1200
560 Mission Street
San Francisco, CA 94105
415.894.5423
lars.kamp@accenture.com
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3. First, some shameless self promotion
Accenture’s Five Offers for Enterprise Mobility
CMT Financial Products Resources Health &
Services Public
Service
1 Mobility Consulting
Business, Technology and Network
Mobility Software Services
2 Applications 3 Devices, Platforms
4 Mobility Managed Services
Enable and Operate
5 Mobility Business Integration Services
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4. Today’s topics.
History
Silicon
Cloud
What’s Next?
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5. Before we start
“People tend to overestimate
what can be done in one year
and to underestimate what can
be done in five to ten years.”
J. C. R. Licklider, 1965
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6. Back in 2006
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7. History
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8. The start of mobile computing.
General Magic Mission Statement, May 1990 – Mountain View, CA
“We have a dream of improving the lives
of many millions of people by means of
small, intimate life support systems that
people carry with them everywhere.
These systems will help people to
organize their lives, to communicate with
other people, and to access information
of all kinds.
They will be simple to use, and come in a
wide range of models to fit every budget,
need, and taste. They will change the
way people live and communicate.”
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 8
Source: SEC.

9. Cloud computing in the 90s…
“Magic Cap” in 1994, designed to run on distributed server systems
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 9
Source: Wired.

10. Revisited in 2008 with Android
Key Magic Cap engineers moved on to create Android, iPhone, Flash
“Magic Cap” UI, 1994 G1 “HTC Dream” UI, 2008
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11. Android iterating 2x per year …
One major dessert every six months
History of Android
Oct 2008 Apr 2009
July 2005 Android Market Android
Android acquired announced. SDK
by Google “G1” released
2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sept 2003
Android
incorporated. … C D E F G H I J …
Nov 2007
OHA founded. April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1
“Astro” & “Bender” 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012
“Android” platform
unveiled. Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IC JB
v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 v5.0?
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 11
Source: Google, Accenture analysis.

12. … with rapid ecosystem adoption
One smartphone OEM and SemiCo at a time
Android
Release
C D E F G H I J
April Sept Oct May Dec Mar Oct H1
2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012
Cupcake Donut Éclair FroYo GiBr HoCo IceCrm JB
v1.5 v1.6 v2.0 v2.2 v2.3 v3.0 v4.0 v5.0?
“Hero”
Device ?
HTC Samsung Motorola HTC Samsung Motorola Samsung
?
Dream Behold II Droid Nexus One Nexus S Xoom Galaxy Nexus
Chip
Qualcomm Qualcomm TI OMAP Qualcomm Intrinsity NVIDIA TI OMAP
MSM7201A MSM7201A 3430 QSD8250 S5PC110 Tegra 2 250 4460 ?
528MHz 528MHz 600 MHz 998MHz 1,000MHz 1,000MHz 1,200MHz
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13. The app store economy
Catalog Size – Apple App Store vs. Android Market
~560K Apps in
iPhone AppStore
~370K App
in Android
Market
600
740
Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 13
Source: Apple press releases & earnings calls, Google, AndroLib, PCWorld, Distimo, Accenture analysis. Excludes books. All numbers rounded.

14. Early days with Android and iOS
App & Mobile Web Usage Growth, US - April 2008 – March 2010
4,000
3,500
32%
3,000
Monthly
Ads Requested (Millions)
2,500 Growth
(Nov’08-Mar’10)
2,000
1,500
19 %
Monthly
1,000 Growth
(Apr’08-Mar’10)
500
0 RIM
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Others incl. Palm
& Windows
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 14
Source: AdMob Mobile Metrics Report, Accenture analysis.

15. Silicon
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16. Moore’s Law
Original publication in the April 1965 edition of Electronics
Gordon Moore
1965
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Source: Intel.

17. “Accelerated acceleration”
Calculations per Second per $1,000
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
1965
100 Moore’s
10-1 original article
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
Electromechanical Relay Vacuum Tube Transistor Integrated Circuit
10-6
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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Source: Ray Kurzweil, Accenture analysis.

18. The evolution of cell phones....
Shift from basebands to application processors
Baseband Processor “Fat Modems” Baseband & Application
(aka Modem) Processor
Low power silicon for OS-enablement of light High performance, low
voice/SMS and long apps running on top power application
battery life. of baseband. processors.
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19. … equally following Moore’s Law
Smartphone computing power - DMPS per $
101
~3500
DMPS
100
~130
DMPS
10-1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 19
Source: Accenture analysis based on 27 smartphones from 13 OEMs and 4 SemiCos. Based on unsubsidized retail price at launch day.

20. “Accelerated acceleration”
Nvdia Tegra roadmap from MWC 2011
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Source: Nvidia press release.

21. Delayering of the silicon industry
System porting emerging as the new layer – “connected devices”.
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Vertical ASIC Fabless IP-driven SW-driven
Suppliers Vendors Semis Design Design
“Texas Instruments” “VLSI Technology” “Qualcomm” “ARM” Various
System
Design &
IP Porting
Distribution
ASIC Vendor (“Fabless”)
IP
Design &
Fully Vertically Electronic Distribution
Integrated: Design Design &
Design & Automation Distribution
Foundry EDA
System EDA
Manufacturer
(Foundry) Foundry
Foundry
Foundry
Ratio
HW : SW 1:0 1 : 0.5 1:1 1:2 1 : 2+
Engineers
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 21
Source: ARM, Cadence, Accenture analysis..

22. Value in silicon moving up the stack
Daily stock prices ARM vs. QCOM, indexed, 01/01/2006 – 11/11/2011
600
ARM
486 Index
500
400
July 2008
ARM announcement that
“major OEM” acquired
architecture license
300
200 QCOM
129 Index
100
0
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
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Source: Stock data taken from Google Finance. Index excludes any dividend payments.

23. Cloud
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24. Burden’s Wheel in Troy (NY), 1851
62 x 22 ft., 500 hp / 373 KW to Burden Iron Works plant 60 ft. away.
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Source: National Museum of American History, Behring Center; Nicholas Carr, “The Big Switch”.

25. Adam’s Plant, Niagara Falls (NY), 1895
6,700 x 21 x 18 ft., 1,250 hp / 932 kW, to Buffalo (NY), 22 miles away.
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Source: Tesla Memorial Society; Nicholas Carr, “The Big Switch”.

26. Cloud computing – a 1969 concept
Douglas Parkhill (DFAIT) and John McCarthy (Stanford)
”In addition to making raw
computer power available in a
convenient economical form, a
computer utility would be
concerned with almost any service
or function which could in some
way be related to the processing,
storage, collection and distribution
of information.”
The Challenge of the
Computer Utility, 1966
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Source: “The Challenge of the Computer Utility”, 1966

27. $B investments into data centers
Massive, “off-deck” geo-distributed computing power
Prineville, OR USA Lockport , NY USA The Dalles, OR USA
Maiden, NC USA Morrow, OR USA Dublin, Ireland
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28. Contrasting cloud economics
What $1 can buy
Price for 20GB Storage Cloud Music Storage
$5 per annum Up to 20,000 Tracks Free
$20 per annum Up to 10,000 Tracks Free
$40 per annum Up to 25,000 with $25 Plan
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Source: Google, Apple, Amazon, Accenture analysis.

29. Largest Commercial Cloud Platform
Google with (planned) 107 machines, all subject to Moore’s Law
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Source: Jeff Dean, Google.

30. What’s next?
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31. Apple’s device business
Apple Product Group Revenue ($B)
50
45 iPhone
40
35
30
25
iPad
20
Mac
15
10
iPod
5
0 Apple TV
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 31
Source: Apple, Accenture analysis..

32. The Apple Store – direct to consumer
26,500 FTEs, 250M+ annual visitors in ~350 stores in 11 countries.
New York Paris Tokyo
Sydney Munich Shanghai
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 32
Source: Apple, Accenture analysis..

33. Apple Store performance compared
$13B in sales, with more $/SqFt/Year than Tiffany & Co.
Scale of Retail Operations Retail Revenue Metrics
Q3 FY2010 – Retail Retail Retail FTEs / $ / SqFt / Year $ / employee / $ / Day / Store $ / Store / Year
Q2 FY2011 Revenue Stores Space part-time ($) Year ($K) ($K) ($M)
($B) (#) (M SqFt) employees
(K)
13 323 2.5 30 $4,793 $397 $102 $37
$3,010 $337 $36 $13
3.1 233 1 9
$866 $279 $33 $12
50.3 4,172 58 180
$425 $200 $128 $47
419 8,970 985 2,100
$391 $179 $125 $46
9.3 204 23.8 52
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 33
Source: Apple, Tiffany, BestBuy, Walmart, Nordstrom Accenture analysis..

34. Explosive growth for mobility
1B smartphone shipments by 2015
Global Mobile Shipments
2005-2015E, Millions
‘10 –’15
2,500 CAGR
Total
2,076 8.4%
1,971 Devices
2,000 1,854
1,718
1,557 Smart
820 926
1,500 1,389 707 Phones 25.0%
Millions
582
1,188 1,190 453
1,128 303
1,002 124 151
1,000 173
833 82
57
1,064 1,085 1,105 1,135 1,147 1,151 1,150 Non
500 1,039 954 1.2%
920 SPs
777
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E
SP Share 7% 8% 10% 13% 15% 22% 29% 34% 38% 42% 45%
of Total
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Source: IDC.

35. Ephemeralization
“Progressively doing more with less”
Buckminster Fuller, 1938
“To do more and more with less
and less until eventually you can
do everything with nothing”
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36. Early “ephemeralization” aka “appification”
Devices are being replaced by apps.
2006 2011 and Beyond
TV Video
Phone Voice
MP3 Player Music
Camera “Camera”
Credit Card Payments
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37. Software replacing people and things.
Start to wonder who / what is next
People Things
Taxi Dispatcher ATMs Keys
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38. Cloud-to-device frameworks
Connecting “on-deck” with “off-deck” computing power: mobile cloud
Cloud Device
Today-ish
HTTP
(custom libraries)
Tomorrow
SDKs
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39. Industrialization of the back-end
Cloud-to-device tools and frameworks.
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 39

40. Jevons’ Paradox
Increased efficiency can lead to increased consumption
William S. Jevons
1865
”It is a confusion of ideas to
suppose that the economical
use of fuel is equivalent to
diminished consumption. The
very contrary is the truth."
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 40

41. As computing gets cheaper…
Four Decades of Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (1/3)
US Asset Price Index, 1969 – 2010
Normalized, 2005 = 100
105
Computers and
104 Peripheral Equipment
103
Transportation
Equipment
102
Other Equipment
Industrial Equipment
101
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 41
Source: BEA, Accenture analysis.

42. … companies consume more of it
Four Decades of Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2/3)
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010
Annual Investment per Employee ($) & Nominal Annual Investment ($B)
Annual Investment per Nominal Annual
Employee ($) Investment ($B)
$3,500 $350
$3,000 $300
$2,500 $250
$2,000 $200
$1,500 $150
$1,000 $100
$500 $50
$0 $0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 42
Source: BEA, Accenture analysis.

43. Software-driven consumption of IT
Four Decades of Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (3/3)
US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010
SW : HW Ratio
2009
SW:HW invest
3.5 ratio passes 3:1
3
1990
2.5 Tim Berners-Lee
WorldWideWeb 1995 2007
YHOO, AMZN, NSCP: 1st iPhone
2 Commercial Web
1990
1.5 ARPANET
decommissioned
1
Academic Private
Investment Investment
0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 43
Source: BEA, Accenture analysis.

44. Think again
“People tend to overestimate
what can be done in one year
and to underestimate what can
be done in five to ten years.”
J. C. R. Licklider, 1965
Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved. 44