Peri-urban

1. Peri-urban Land use changes in the
Lagos Megacity
M Phil Candidate : Samuel Dekolo
(109054012)
Supervisors: Prof. Leke Oduwaye
Dr. I. I. C. Nwokoro

2. 1) Introduction and Background to the Study
2) Literature Review
3) Theoretical Framework
4) Conceptual Framework
5) Methodology
6) Conclusion

3. INTRODUCTION
Background to the Study

4. Background to the Study
• The global trend of urbanisation has led to the
formation of large urban agglomerations with a
population of 10 million or more known as
megacities.
• Megacities are characterized by sprawling
developments, which brings rapid change to
land cover and land uses in peri-urban areas.
• Sprawling growth tends to correlates with poor
housing, poverty, insecure land tenure,
informality and slum development,
unsustainable land use and environmental
degradation in most African cities.

5. Background…
• Land use and land cover changes due to urban
expansion have serious ecological
repercussions and pose a great deal of
challenge to environmental sustainability at
local and global scales. It is a major driving
force of global environmental change, which
affects the earth systems.
• Prevailing global changes linked to
deforestation, desertification, biodiversity
loss, food insecurity, climate change, carbon
emission etc, are consequences of
unsustainable use of land or unsustainable
practices.

6. Global Significance
• Global Land Surveys estimates the total
world’s forests in 2005 at 3.8 billion hectares
i.e. 30% of the global land area. However,
recorded a decrease of 1.7% between 1990
and 2005 at 0.11% P.A (FAO, 2012).
• Africa had the 2nd highest forest loss with 1.6
million ha annually and Nigeria had the largest
rate of forest loss in 2005 (FAO, 2005).
• The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment
shows the magnitude of the loss of land cover
due to land use change has resulted in the
loss of ecosystems services from the global to
local scales.

7. Millenium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA)
The Millenium Assessment Report proved that global challenges are offshoots
of regional and local land use change dynamics and human choice » (Powleegde, 2006).

8. Global to Local Initiatives
GLOBAL RESEARCH PROJECTS
• Sustainable Land Use
(SuLu)Project
• Global Land Project (GLP)
• The GLP research has
three thematic area:
• Dynamics of Land
Systems; Consequences of
Land Systems Change;
Integrating Analysis and
Modelling for
Sustainability
• International Geosphere-
Biosphere Programme
(IGBP)
• International Human
Dimensions Programme
on Global Environmental
Change (IHDP)
• Project GIGALOPOLIS
• Etc.
REGIONAL RESEARCH PROJECTS
• Europe
• Monitoring Land Use/Cover
Dynamics (MOLAND)
• Peri-urban Land Use Relationships
(PLUREL)
• Africa
• Land Use Impacts and Dynamics
(LUCID)-East Africa
• AFRICOVER
NIGERIAN LAND USE /COVER
PROJECTS
• Nigeria Radar (NIRAD) 1976/77
• Land Use/Land Cover FORMECU
Project 1978-1995
• ABUJA GIS PROJECT-
• LRIS/lLISSU (1995) LAGIS
PROJECT 2009

9. Statement of Problem
• Several studies have been done globally and
regionally, however, these cannot give an
understanding of land use change processes
at the local scale.
• Existing literature shows that Land Use
Change studies on the study area have
focused on the spatial quantification of
change without understanding their
determinants.
• Studies on peri-urbanization of the Lagos
Megacity tend to focus on the associated
problems without investigating the spatio-
temporal change, and the underlying factors
for such change.

10. Statement of Problem
• Existing theories on peri-urban land use
change are western biased and may not be
able to explain the local processes in the
Lagos megacity.
• Previous studies on the study area have not
addressed the location characteristics and role
of human agents (parcel owners) in
transformation of the peri-urban landscape.
• There are also existing gaps in land use policy
analysis in the study area; there have not been
studies to examine the land management
instruments and institutions.

11. Statement of Problem
• In view of the gaps, there is a need for a
holistic study that will contributes to the
understanding of the Lagos Megacity’s peri-
urban land use change and the determinants
based on appropriate spatial units, which will
provide an assessment of its spatial patterns,
rates of change, correlation, trends and
policies with the use of geospatial
technologies.

12. Research Aim
• The aim of this research is to investigate the
pattern and extent of peri-urban land use
changes in the Lagos megacity between 1976
and 2013 and their determinants through the
application of spatial models.

13. Research Objectives
• To assess the extent of land use changes in
peri-urban areas of Lagos megacity for the
study period through the application of
remote sensing and GIS.
• To compare the spatial and temporal
variations in land use changes in the study
area during the study period
• To investigate the determinants of land use
changes in study area.
• To evaluate the roles and capacities of
planning institutions in implementing existing
land use planning policies and manage land
use in the study area.

14. Research Questions
• What are the land use and land cover changes
that has taken place in peri-urban areas of the
Lagos Megacity between 1976 and 2013?
• What are the spatial and temporal variations in
land use changes in the study area during the
study period?
• What are the determinants of these land use
changes?
• What are the institutional roles and capacities
in implementing land use policies and
managing land use change in the study area?

15. Study area:
Lagos Megacity, Lagos State in Nigeria
Lagos Megacity is a
continuous built area
spanning over 153,540
hectares of land comprising
18 Local Government Areas
of Lagos State and four
LGAs (i.e., Sagamu, Owode,
Ifo and Ado-Odo/Otta) in
the neighbouring Ogun
State.
It was ranked by United
Nations (World Urbanization
Prospects, 2007) as 9th
among the 28 current and
prospective megacities in
the world with a standard of
living score of 19%.
The city has experienced
tremendous spatial and
demographic growth which
has led to continuous loss
of forest and agricultural
land to built-up areas.

16. Definition of Terms
• land use refers to the purpose or activities for which land is used. It
emphasizes more on land's social properties, that is, the output of
reconstruction activities that human adopts to manipulate, manage
and regulate the land chronically and periodically according to
determined economic and social purpose.
• Land cover on the other refers to the physical and biological cover
over the earth surface of land, including water, vegetation, bare soil
and artificial structures. It emphasizes the natural properties, it is
defined as the biophysical cover of the earth’s surface, and it is the
expression of human activities and synthetically reflection of various
elements in global surface covered with natural body or synthetic
features.
• Peri-urban is a term used in three different ways to mean a place,
process and or concept. As a place-based term, it is the rural-urban
fringe and transitional zone around the city characterised with
intense interaction, flows and linkages between the rural and urban
areas. It is the intermediary zone and geographical space where rural
areas meet the urban areas. Whereas as a process it is the transition
of rural to urban areas as well as the flow of goods, services and
resources between the urban and the rural areas.
• In terms of concept-based definition, the proximity of the zone to
urban centres is less significant; it is the co-existence of both rural
and urban characteristics, linkages and the flow of goods and
services between them that matters

17. LITRATURE REVIEW

18. Selected Authors (Global)
Author(s)/Year Research Theme Gaps
Baptista, 2010; Briassoulis,
2000
Theoretical framework for land
use change research
Even though most of the findings of
these studies are commendable and
useful, they were tailored to land use
change problem in the global north.
Assessing the impact of land use
change of cities on global
environmental change will be
incomplete without repeating such
investigation in cities in the global
south.
Brandon, 2000; Zhang, Kang,
Wang, & Sun, 2010
Applications of remote sensing
and GIS in land use change
detection and analysis
Lambin & Ehrlich, 1997;
Shariff, Gairola, & Talib, 2010;
Lesschen, Verburg, & Staal,
2005
Algorithms and methodology
for change detection
Braimoh & Vlek, 2004;
DiGregorio & Jansen, 1998
Analysis and quantification of
land use and land cover change
Serneels & Lambin, 2001;
Olson, Misana, Campbell,
Mbonile, & Mugisha, 2004
Drivers and determinants of
land use change
Irwin, 2003; Bell & Irwin, 2002;
Briassoulis, 2000
Modeling of land use change

19. Selected Authors (Local)
Author(s)/Year Theme Gaps
Odumosu, 1992 Investigated the spatiotemporal changes
and metropolitanisation processes of
Lagos Metropolis using FA and PCA
Based on manual mapping techniques which lacked
accuracy in handling spatial data
Ikhuoria, 1993 Investigated the land use changes in
parts of Edo State with the use of aerial
photographs and field survey
Limited by human error associated with manual
processes of change detection inherent in the use of
aerial photographs
Omojola, 1998 Assessment of land use and land cover
change of Sokoto-Rima River basin by
the use of integrated remote sensing
and GIS techniques to assess the trend,
rate and impact of changes in the study
area for the periods of 1962, 1977 and
1986.
It could not determine the factors responsible for the
changes or predict scenarios.
Berredo and Demicheli, 2003 Land use changes between 1984 and
2000, also simulated the future urban
growth of the Lagos megacity for the
year 2020 through the Cellular Automata
(CA) model
Study was the use of secondary data (satellite
imageries) without adequate ground truthing and
collection of primary data (physical and socio-economic
characteristics) of the study area.
The use of 100mx100m as mapping unit is too large to
represent parcel level LU decisions
The drivers of change were not investigated
Adepoju et al, 2006 Change detection studies of Lagos for
the period of 1984 to 2002
The study considered change analysis without
investigating the drivers of the changes and models of
future changes
There are no concerns changes at peri-urban levels.
Lawanson, Yadua, & Salako, 2012;
Mandere, Ness, & Anderberg, 2010;
Simon, McGregor, & Nsiah-Gyabaah,
2004; Dung-Gwom, 2008; Buxton &
Low, 2007; Nkwae, 2006; Allen, 2003
Peri-urban characteristics and problems
associated with urban growth or
urbanization
the spatial nature of these problems arising from land
use changes in peri-urban areas were not considered.
Olaleye et al (2012) Understanding the Pattern Of Urban
Expansion in Greater Lagos, Nigeria
From 1984 To 2006
The major gap in this work is that the authors depended
on the imageries alone without any fieldwork.

20. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

21. Urban and Regional Economic
Theories
Urban and
Regional
Economics
Approach
Micro-Economic
Theories
Agricultural Land Rent
Theory (von Thunen,
1966)
Urban Land Market
Theory (Alonso, 1964)
Agent-based theories
(Krugman 1996)
Macro-Economic
Theories
Spatial Economic
Equilibrium Theory
(Weber, 1929; Losch,
1954)
Growth Pole Theory
(Perroux, 1955;
Boudeville, 1966)
Cumulative Causation
Theory (Myrdal, 1957)

22. Micro-Economic Theories:
Von Thunen’ agricultural Rent
theory (1826)
Alonso’s Bid Rent Theory (1964)
Location Theories of Land Use Change
R =f (Distance + Cost of Transport) R =f (Distance + Travel Time+ Cost + Utility)

23. Krugman’s Self Organizing Economy (1996)
•Humans and Firms interact with market forces
to influence land use location decision through a
‘Self Organizing’ Process
•Firms or manufacturing concerns located in
peri-urban areas of cities tends to attract other
land use activities and leads to the formation of
'edge cities'
Micro-Economic Theories:
Agent-Based Theories

24. Macro-Economic Theories:
Weber’s (Least Cost) Theory of
Industrial Location(1929)
Christaller’s Modified Central
Place Theory by August Losch
Modified (1954)
Spatial Equilibrium Theories
Industrial Location = Minimum input
(transport +Labour Cost) +Agglomeration
Economics
Regional Welfare and Economic
Balance through hierarchical spatial
interactionss

25. Macro-Economic Theories:
Perroux’s Growth Pole Theory
(1949)
Myrdal’s Cumulative Causation
Theory (1957) & Friedman’s
Core-Periphery Theory (1954)
Spatial Disequilibrium Theories
Abstract Economic Space of
influence leading to polarization
Spread and Backwash Effect

26. Sociological and Human
Ecological Theories
Sociological
Approach
Human Ecological
Theories
Concentric Zone Theory
(Burges, 1925)
Radial Sector Theory
(Hoyt, 1939)
Multiple Nuclei Theory
(Harris and Ullman, 1945)
Metropolitan
Planning Theories
Theory of Metropolitan
Spatial Structure (Foley,
1964)
Metropolitan Planning
(Weber, 1964)
Activity Systems Theory
(Chapin, 1965)

27. Human ecological theories
Land Use Patterns emerges from processes of Invasions and
Successions

28. Planning Theories of the Metropolis
Foley’s ‘Theory of Metropolitan Spatial Structure’ (1964) upheld
that personalities, social and cultural values, norms shapes the
city
Chapin’s ‘Theory of Activity Systems’ (1974) emphasizes the
role of the personalities and individual decision in spatial
structuring of cities

29. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

30. The DPSIR FRAMEWORK
This framework, which was developed by the European Environment Agency in
1999, with the aim of analysing the cause-effect relationships between
interacting components of complex social, economic and environmental
systems and the managing of information flow within its components.

31. The DPSIR FRAMEWORK
The DPSIR model have been applied to diverse environmental problems in
several countries including land use change studies in Europe, the US, East
Africa and Ghana. The model was used in land use change studies in Europe’s
Peri-urban Land Use Relationships (PLUREL) project between 2007 and 2011,
the East Africa’s Land Use Change Impacts and Dynamics (LUCID) project and
the assessment of land degradation in Northern Ghana.

32. OPERATIONAL SYNTHESIS OF CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
The research will be divided into four (4) major phases:
1. Analysis change in ‘State’ between Pre-plan (1976) and Post-plan (2013) periods
2. Determining the ‘Drivers’, ‘Pressures’ and ‘Impact’ though field survey
3. Developing Spatial Models to explain and predict ‘State ‘Pressures’ and ‘Impact’
4. Evaluation of ‘Response’ by land use management instruments and policies

33. Land Use Policies
• The Land Use Act of 1978
• Land Policy of the New Order (1980)
• Subsidiary Legislation and Policies:
• Guidelines to establish the procedure for processing an
approval for private estate within Lagos.
• Regulation on zoning.
• Development schemes and land improvement programmes.
• Regional Plan (1980 – 2000AD).
• Master Plan for Lagos metropolis (1980-2000A.D)
• Ground rent and development charges regulations.
• Town and Country Planning Edict of 1985; Town and Country
Planning (Building Plans) Regulations of 1986-2010
• Town and Country Planning (condition for development of
government land by private developers) Etc.

34. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

35. Research Design
• The research adopts a hybrid
approach of spatial analysis of land
use change and survey research
methods.
• Quantitative and qualitative data
collection methods will be used

36. Data Sources (Primary)
• Physical and environmental survey
• Quantitative field surveys (using
questionnaires)
• Focused group discussions and
qualitative interviews.
• Focused groups
CDAs, families and individual tenure holders, land
agents, land use planners, property valuers and allied
professionals.

37. Data Sources (Secondary)
Acquisition
Date
Satellite
Number
Sensor Type WRS Path/Row UTM
Zone
Datum Spatial
Resolution
(M)
Sources & Year
08/12/2013 Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS 191/55 31N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2014
07/12/2006 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS,2011
24/12/1986 Landsat 5 MSS 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 1986
Supporting Spatial Data/Demographic Data
Feb 2002 STRM (DEM) 3-ARC USGS,2002
1993/95 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1995
1976/78 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1978
1980 Lagos Metropolitan Master Plan (1980-200) Wilbur Smith Assoc
1980 The Lagos State Regional Plan (1980-2000) Doxiadis Associates
2006 Population of Lagos State National Population Census NPC
1991 Population of Lagos State National Population Census NPC

38. Targeted population and Unit of Analysis
Levels Targeted Population Data Sources Objectives
Parcel -Parcel Owners
/households
-Field Survey
-GPS
-Determinants of Land
Use Change
Neighbourhood - Income groups
(High/Medium/Low)
-Tenure holders/Families
-Community groups
-Remote Sensed Imageries
-Vector Maps
-Focus Group Interviews
Determinants of Land Use
Change
Local Government
Area
-Community groups
-Governmental Agencies
-Non-Governmental
Agencies
-Remote Sensed Imageries
-Vector Maps
-Census Data
-Land Use Policies
-Analysis of land use
patterns/variations
-Policy Analysis
-Spatial Models
Administrative
Division
-Community groups
-Governmental Agencies
-Non-Governmental
Agencies
-Remote Sensed Imageries
-Vector Maps
-Census Data
-Land Use Policies
-Analysis of land use
patterns/variations
-Policy Analysis
-Spatial Models
• :
Four (4) functional levels of observation have been selected for
analysis in this study

39. Specification of Variables
• In order to investigating the land use change that has
occurred in peri-urban areas of Lagos Megacity with the view
of determining its proximate and underlying causes.
• There will be the application of Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
Regression and Geographically Weight Regression (GWR) in
this research.
• This is similar to the ‘Model of Residential Growth’ known as
the North Carolina Model cited in Chapin and Kaiser (1979)
• In the model above, the dependent variable (Y) is Land Use
Change is the explanatory variables (X1, X2, X3…Xn) are factors
responsible for change (like population growth, land use
policies, land value, distance to employment, physical
characteristics of site, accessibility, etc.) and regression
coefficients is B, while the residual or random error term is E .

40. Specification of Variables
Variables Type Unit
Dependent Variable
Rate of Land Use Change from Non
Urban to Urban
Continuous Per Annum
Independent Variables
Distance to major roads Continuous km
Distance to place of employment Continuous km
Distance to the Lagos CBD Continuous km
Cost of Transportation Continuous 0-5
Environmental Suitability Categorical 0-1
Suitability for agriculture Categorical 0-1
Land value and rent Categorical 1-5
Housing Demand Categorical 1-5
Population density Continuous persons/km2
Housing density Continuous Units/km2
Employment type of house owner Categorical 1-5
Income level Categorical 1-5
Literacy levels Categorical 1-5
Socio-cultural influence Categorical 1-5
Agricultural and forestry policies Categorical 1-5
Land tenure Categorical 1-5
Land Use Policies and management
practices
Categorical 1-5
Land use zoning Binary 0-1

41. Sampling Frame and Sizes
Geographical
Frame (Lagos
Megacity)
Non-urban
LGA (1976)
Sample
size (LGA)
Wards Sample
Wards
Identified
Parcels
Sample
Parcels
Lagos State 9 6 81 42 364796 664
Ogun State 4 4 57 15 65616 119
Total 13 10 138 57 430412 783
% of Frame 77% 41% 0.2%
A sample size of 783 parcels was derived for a population size of
430,412 at a 95% confidence level and a level 3.5% margin of error using
Cochran (1977) formula.
•Two groups of sample frames were adopted
•The first group is geographical frames, which comprises of 13 local
government councils in the Lagos Megacity region (Lagos and Ogun
States) with less than 50% urban land use in 1976 and 138 total number
of wards in these councils.
The second frame is the total number of parcels identified in the study
area.

42. Sampling Procedure and
Techniques
• The study adopts a multi-staged sampling technique.
• First is a geographic area sampling, which draws
samples systematically from local government councils
and wards.
• Secondly, Parcels or properties will be selected randomly
in sampled wards and neighbourhoods (which are
enumeration areas) for administering questionnaires.
• Geographical coordinates (X and Y coordinates) of these
parcels will be linked as points to the household data on
GIS maps and imageries with the aid of a handheld GPS.

43. Methods of Data Collection and
Analysis
Research Questions Scope of Investigation Data Collection
Methods
Data Analysis Methods Phases
What are the land use and
land cover changes that has
taken place in peri-urban
areas of the Lagos
Metropolitan Area between
1976 and 2013
-Land use/Land cover
change analysis
-Ground truthing
-Satellite Imageries
(LANDSAT Multi-temporal
Imageries);
Ikonos high level resolution
Imageries
-Image Processing
-Change detection
-accuracy assessment
-Change Statistics
-co-occurrence matrix
Spatial statistical
Phase 1
What are the spatial and
temporal variations in land
use changes in the study
area during the study
period?
-Land use/Land cover
change analysis
-pattern of development
-Land use densities
distribution
-Satellite Imageries
-Spatial and non-spatial data
-census data/maps
- GIS Based Spatial
Analysis
-Spatial statistical analysis
ANOVA
Phase 1
What are the determinants
of these land use changes?
Field survey and
investigation
-Questionnaires Interview,
focussed group discussions
-socioeconomic survey/data
-spatial data ,census data
-Analysis of natural and
anthropogenic driving forces
-Quantitative analysis
-SPSS
ANOVA
Phase 2/Phase 3
How effective are existing
land use planning policies in
managing land use change
during the study period and
what implication does this
have for the study area?
-Land Use Policy Analysis
-SDI Evaluation
-Structured interview
-Focussed group discussion
-Questionnaires
Quantitative and qualitative
analysis
Phase 4

44. CONCLUSION

45. Expected Contribution to Knowledge
• The research will contribute to understanding
the spatial variations in land use change
across the study area
• It will combine theories and methodologies
from various disciplines (earth sciences, social
sciences and computer sciences) to
understand the urban growth and structure of
the Lagos Megacity
• It will validate the applicability of existing
economic and social theories of land use
change
• It will contribute to understanding the most
important drivers of peri-urbanization in the
study area.
• It will contribute to developing appropriate
framework for land use policy analysis in
Nigeria

46. Thank You and God Bless