This document summarizes a study that examined land use and land cover changes in Ikorodu, a peri-urban local government area of Lagos, Nigeria, using remote sensing imagery from 1990 to 2011. The study found a 672% increase in urbanized areas, accompanied by losses of 58% of forestland and 29% of agricultural land. Wetlands decreased by 6.28%. This indicates unsustainable sprawl that threatens rural livelihoods and sustainability. The study recommends adopting GIS and remote sensing in planning, strengthening related education, and preparing an Ikorodu Master Plan to guide development.

1. Peri-urban land use change in
the Lagos megacity
S. Dekolo1,2, I. Nwokoro1 & L. Oduwaye1
1Department
of Urban and Regional Planning,
University of Lagos, Nigeria
2Department of Urban and Regional Planning,
Lagos State Polytechnic, Nigeria

2. Overview
• This presentation examines the use of remote sensing
to monitor spatio-temporal land-use and land-cover
changes for Ikorodu, one of the largest peri-urban local
government in the Lagos Megacity with the use of
LANDSAT Multi-temporal images for a period spanning
two decades (i.e., 1990 to 2011). Policy implications are
also discussed.

3. INTRODUCTION

4. Introduction
 The expansion of Lagos like most cities in developing countries is
characterized by sporadic, sprawling and spatially extensive
development.
 The consequences are more obvious in its peri-urban areas,
which suffer from problems of climate change, poverty, stagnation,
lack of tenure, lack of infrastructure, land speculation, pollution,
natural resource depletion and diminution of agro-ecological and
rural lands.
 Land use and land cover changes due to city expansion have
serious ecological repercussions and pose a great deal of
challenge to environmental sustainability at local and global
scales.

5. •Achieving environmental sustainability requires a better
understanding of the land use change processes, analysis
of past and current trends of land use change, and the
effect of urban expansion.
•Remote sensing, guarantees timely and accurate
detection of land use and land cover changes.

6. Remote sensing and Land Use Studies
Remote Sensing is the science and art of obtaining information about an
object, area, or phenomenon through the analysis of data acquired by a
device that is not in contact with object, area, or phenomenon under
investigation.
Most contemporary land use studies employ remote sensing imagery from
multispectral sensors; the foremost task is the observation of spectral
characteristics of measured electromagnetic radiation from a target or
landscape.
Since the launch of the first LANDSAT (ERTS-1) in 1972, there has been a
better understanding of the Earth and its terrestrial ecosystems, as well as
its land processes. This has had an enormous impact in global research,
providing researchers with real-world data and access to greatly enhanced
spatial and analytical tools. Today, remote sensing image data of the Earth’s
surface acquired by spacecraft platforms is readily available in a digital
format.

7. The Study Area
• The city of Lagos grew from a small fishing settlement (the Lagos
Island), which later became the seat of the British Colonial
government in 1861. The censuses 1871 and 1911 shows that the
city’s population had doubled from 28,520 to 73,770; by 1963 the
population has increased to 1.4 Million people with its urban
population put at 46% .
• The 1991 census By 1991 puts its population at 5.6 Million and
9.1 million the following 2006 census. Today, it is a megacity and
one of the largest conurbations in the world. Its continuous
expansion has led to the annexure of rural communities and the
loss of forest and agricultural lands to built-up areas.

8. Population Growth of Lagos
Census 1963-2006
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Lagos
Division
Ikeja
Division
Census-1963
Badagry
Division
Census-1991
Ikorodu
Division
Epe
Total Lagos
Division
State
Census-2006

9. Comparing the growth of Lagos
with other Nigerian Cities
Nigerian Cities with Poplation 750,000 or More in 2007
16000
Lagos, 14134
14000
POPULATION (‘000)
12000
10000
8000
6000
Kano, 4487
Ibadan, 3752
Abuja, 2971
Kaduna, 2083
Benin City, 1755
Port Harcourt, 1386
Ogbomosho, 1293
Maiduguri, 1479
Zaria, 1301
Ilorin, 1123
4000
2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

10. Spatial Growth of Lagos
1900-1980
1980-2006

11. Ikorodu in the Lagos
setting
The study area Ikorodu is a
Nigerian local government area
(municipality) and the only
surviving administrative area of
Lagos State since its creation
in 1968.
It has an area of approximately
396.5 km2, Ikorodu is spatially
located approximately 36km
North of Lagos. Since the
1960s,
Ikorodu was known for
extensive farmlands and that is
why it derived its name from
‘Oko-Odu’ meaning vegetable
farm.

12. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

13. Data used
•In this research, multispectral and multi temporal images were used.
Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) for 1990 and Landsat ETM+
(Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus) for 2000 and 2011.
Acquisition
Satellite
Sensor Type
WRS Path/Row
UTM Zone
Datum
Spatial
Date
Number
03/01/2011
Landsat 7
ETM+
191/55
31 N
WGS84
28.5-30
06/02/2000
Landsat 7
ETM+
191/55
31 N
WGS84
28.5-30
27/12/1990
Landsat 4
TM
191/55
31 N
WGS84
28.5-30
Resolution (m)

14. LULC Classification
•Unsupervised ISODATA clustering
and post classification method was
used.
•In order to facilitate land use change
detection in this research, five
classes of land uses were generated
Urban/built-up, Forested Land,
Agricultural Lands, Wetlands, Water
Bodies. Level 1 of classes will be
used to generate change statistics,
while level 2 will be basically
description of classes
Level 1
1. Urban or Built-up Land
Level 2 (Description)
Residential, Commercial,
Industrial, Institutional,
Transportation/Communication
/Utilities, Mixed uses
2Agricultural Land
Cropland, Grazing ,
Agricultural Tree Crop
Plantation, Arable Crop
Plantation
Riparian Forest, Forest
Plantation, Disturbed Forest,
Mangrove Forest
Forested Freshwater Swamp,
Non-Forested Freshwater
Swamp
Ocean, Rivers and Streams,
Lakes, Bays and Estuaries,
Ponds
3.Forest Land
4. Wetlands
5. Water Bodies

15. Research Workflow

16. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

17. Image Classification for Ikorodu 1990-2011
1990
2000
2011
Multispectral/
Multitemporal
Composite
Imagery
Unsupervised
ISODATA
Cluster
Classified
Raster
Overall accuracy for 1990, 2000 and 2011 are 62.45%, 91.41% and 88.62% respectively

18. Land Use/Land Cover Change
Statistics for Ikorodu (1990-2011)
1990
Area
(Ha)
%
2320.74
4.49
6116.40 11.79
16749.81 32.38
+7.30
+20.59
+27.89
19902011
Growth/
Decline
(%)
+671.74
Agric. Land
13533.48
26.16
10934.91 21.08
5679 10.98
-5.08
-10.10
-15.18
-58.03
Forestland
22126.77
42.77
20794.14 40.08
15612.66 30.18
-2.69
-10.3
-12.59
-29.44
2694.78
5.20
4.87
-0.33
0
-0.33
-6.28
Water Bodies
11060.55
21.38
11506.32 22.18
11169.18 21.59
+0.80
-0.59
0.21
+9.82
Total
Population
51736.32
100
184,674
51878.07
100
248,529
51736.32
100
838,332
34.58
112.42
237.38
125.67
246.10
199.80
96
19 59
2076.90
1378.32
284.10
-34
-79 -86
Land-Use
Clusters
Urban/Built-up
Wetlands
Built-up
(m2/pers)
Vegetn.
(m2/pers)
2000
2011
Area
(Ha)
2526.30
%
4.87
Area
(Ha)
2525.67
19902000
% Change
(%)
2000- 1990-2011
2011
Change
Change
(%)
(%)

19. Land Use in Ikorodu (1990-2011)
21.59
22.18
21.38
Water Bodies
4.87
4.87
5.2
Wetlands
30.18
Forestland
40.08
42.77
10.98
Agric. Land
21.08
26.16
32.38
Urban/Built-up
11.79
4.49
0
5
10
15
20
2011
2000
All values in Percentage
25
1990
30
35
40
45

20. Percentage Change
35
30
25
20
Urban/Built-up
15
Agric. Land
10
Forestland
5
Wetlands
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Water Bodies
1990
2000
2011

21. Land Use Change Analysis
•
•
•
The result of the classified land use/cover maps produced for the study area shows a
total built-up area of 2320.74 hectares in 1990, this increased to 6116.40 hectares
by 2000 and finally 16749.81 in 2011.
This represents a 672% growth of built up area in the past two decades, which is
three times the population growth that increased from 184,674 to 838,332, i.e., a
growth of 237%.
On the other hand, there was a consistent loss of forest and agricultural
land. 58% of forestland was lost to urban expansion; there was a decrease from
22126.77 hectares in 1990 to 20794.14 by 2000 and further to 15612.66 hectares
in 2011. 29% of agricultural land was lost in the past two decades; the table shows
a reduction from 13533.48 hectares of agricultural land in 1990 to 5679 hectares
by 2011. Adding the loss of wetlands, this is 6.28%, the total vegetation cover lost to
built-up areas for the study period sums up to 94%

22. Growth Pattern and Sprawl
Measurement
• Comparing the rate of change in built-up per capita and
vegetation per capita is a simple criteria for evaluating growth.
• The study also shows that between 1990 and 2000 the built-up per
capita index increase by 96% (i.e. 126m2 to 246m2), however, this
rate dropped by 19% in 2011.
• The 86% decrease in vegetation per capita from 2076.9 sqm in
1990 to 284sqm in 2011 is a clear indication of a sprawling
development pattern in the study area.

23. CONCLUSION

24.  The study examined the land use/cover change and urban growth
of Ikorodu, one of the most important and fastest growing periurban towns in the Lagos megacity.
 There has never been a comprehensive plan to guide
development in Ikorodu until now. This explains the sprawling
fractal that has been created.
 There is a consistent loss of forest and agricultural land use to
urban development in the past two decade. This is a major
challenge inhibiting sustainability and will transcend from local to
global scales.

25.  Loss of farmlands (farm settlements established by the Western
Nigeria government and other farms) poses a threat to rural
livelihood and may lead to food insecurity in the future
 Peri-urban dynamics in Lagos has its consequence as persistent
loss of forest and agricultural resources, environmental pollution
and degradation, which seems unnoticed due to lack of spatial
technologies and spatial data infrastructures that are
adequately integrated in our land-use planning framework must
be addressed to prevent a trend leading to a mega-slum and
ecocide.

26. Recommendations and Policy
Implications
 There is need for timely and accurate data
management of land based resources in our cities
 It is also suggested that GIS and remote sensing
technology be adopted by land managers in the city’s
municipalities or local government councils as well as
other government and non-governmental agencies
dealing with land use management.

27.  Spatial Data Infrastructure need to be developed from
the grass root level and at departmental levels of
governments.
 The GIS and remote sensing programmes in land use
planning schools needs to be strengthened and a
constructivism approach adopted in the instruction.
 There is need for urgent preparation and
implementation of an Ikorodu Master Plan.

28. Further Work
• This research was conducted as part of a M.Phil
Research at the Department of Urban and Regional
Planning, University of Lagos.
• Further work will be done by determining the drivers of
these changes and modeling the future changes of the
Megacity. It is hoped that these findings will be
presented in future conferences.