A new version of the talk that describes what software estimates are used for, and alternatives that might serve you better. (This time with added logs ;)
5. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Warren Ellis, author & humanist
“I try not to get involved in the
business of predic'on.
It's a quick way to look like an idiot.”
6. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management
26. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Probabilis5c
planning
...uses historical data or a model of
expected capability to build a
forecast of the project outcome
31. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
“... rather than trying to improve the ini>al project
es>mates, the budgets and deadlines must be set
based on the value of delivery (not the cost).”
h)p://www.gilb.com/dl460
Es5ma5on:
A Paradigm Shig Toward
Dynamic Design-‐to-‐Cost
and
Radical Management
34. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
"We aren't really bad at
es5ma5ng.
What we are really bad at
is enumera5ng all the
assump5ons that lie
behind our es5mates."
-‐Paul Rook
35. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Is it small,
or just far away?
42. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
The idea behind the #NoEs5mates
approach to sogware development
isn't to eliminate es:mates
[it is] to explore other ways to solve
problems
without specifically asking,
'How long will it take?'
h)p://www.cio.com/ar5cle/2381167/agile-‐development/-‐no-‐es5mates-‐in-‐ac5on-‐5-‐ways-‐to-‐rethink-‐sogware-‐projects.html
43. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Giving sogware projects an API
... [is] about
“yes, yes, yes”.
h)p://xprogramming.com/ar5cles/ar5facts-‐are-‐not-‐the-‐problem/
44. @sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Ask yourself whether the value you get from
es5mates jus5fies the cost of producing them.
#NoEs:mates is the banner under which
people look for alterna:ve ways
of gerng
the benefits that they want,
without
the waste that they don’t.
Finally....