1. Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement: Leading Narratives of
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and International
Community. Investigation of Dialogue among Parties.
Master Thesis
Student: Gunay Ismayilova
Academic Advisor: Dr. Elnur Soltanov
Baku, Azerbaijan
Spring Term
2012

2. 5 Days Flag Crisis:
5 days flag crisis

3. The Research Questions:
I. What are the leading narratives of key parties
about Turkish-Armenian Normalization?
II. How do narratives of key parties change within
a set timeframe?
III. Is there any visible pattern and dialogue across
the parties in the set time frame?

4. Theoretical Framework:

 
 ?
 Conflict ?
Resolution
Conflict Escalation Positions, Multi-issue
and De-escalation Interests, Bargaining
s.c. Model Turkey close Needs
1 attempts
st
Model Process in
Armenia Nagorno- of Turkey “Football Signing
“Armenian borders with Protocols- deadlock
within USSR Karabakh and Armenia Diplomacy”
Genocide” - Armenia- 2009 2010 -
- 1920-1990 conflict- 1991 to reconcile - 2008
1915 1993 current
2001
Periods of hostility Detente

5. What is “Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement”?
“The attempts of governments of the Republic of Turkey and the
Republic of Armenia to reconcile and build diplomatic relations, after the
long history of hostilities, started from ethnic tensions in 1915-1923 in the
Ottoman Empire and followed by closing borders and termination of all
diplomatic relations in 1993, as a result of Nagorno-Karabakh War. “

6. Why This is Important to Analyze?
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict:
 20% of occupied territories of Azerbaijan Republic
 Military situation and closed borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan
 600,000 IDPs and 250,000 refugees left without permanent
accommodation

7. Why This is Important to Analyze?
Impact on Geopolitics of the Region:
 Azerbaijan – Turkey alliance
 Russia – Armenia alliance
Iran – Armenia alliance
 Georgia’s position, as country’s, whose transit role can be
shirked or partially lost

8. Why This is Important to Analyze?
The Fate of Energy and Transportation Paths
 Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan
 Baku – Tbilisi – Kars
 South Caucasus Gas Pipeline
 Future energy and transportation projects

9. What Has been Said by Now?
“Maybe soccer diplomacy could break the ice between Armenia and Turkey in the same way ping-
pong diplomacy launched relations between the United States and Communist China”
US-based Radio Liberty
" Baku made it amply clear before the protocols were signed that the opening of this
border would represent a strategic blow to its efforts to put pressure on Armenia
over Karabakh. Thus, Turkey’s diplomatic game plan was spoiled even before the
start of the normalization process in Zurich.
Semih Idiz, “ Insight Turkey” Journal
“My prediction is that if the Turkish-Armenian border is opened, the Azerbaijani
people will find themselves in a hopeless, desperate situation, and will lose
faith in Turkey.”
Elkhan Mehtiyev, Peace and Conflict Resolution Center, Baku, Azerbaijan
By spring 2010, mistrust of Turkey grew significantly even among those political circles in
Armenia that were originally very pro-rapprochement and argued in favor of it in
discussions with nationalists and Diaspora actors. Armenian society’s perspective on
relations with Turkey is again moving closer to that of the Diaspora.
Sergey Minasyan, Political Studies Department, Caucasus Institute, Yerevan

10. What Does This Research Paper Add
into Discussion?
• Finds dominating narrative for each key-
1 player
• Analyzes how key narratives change over time
2 and for what reason (defining turning points)
• Looks for a dialogue among parties
3

11. Methodology

12. Main Parameters
Analyzed Parties Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, International
community (the US, Europe)
Time frame August 2008 – August 2010 (25 months)
Type of Analysis Content Analysis
Unit of Analysis articles from online newspapers

13. Methodology:
States Chosen Sources # of articles
Armenia www.newsarmenia.ru 197
Azerbaijan www.trend.az 117
Turkey www.hurriyetdailynews.com 101
International www.newyorktimes.com 14
Scale:
Shall Rapprochement happen? Scale
yes 1
conditional yes 2
conditional no 3
no 4

14. Results

15. 1. Finding Dominating Narrative for
Each Key-Player

16. Overall Attitudes of Each Party:
90%
Shall Turkey and Armenia Reconcile?
80%
70%
60%
50%
83%
40%
77% 75%
30% 60%
20% 41%
10% 23% 25%
17%
0%
YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO
ARM AZE TR INT

17. Positions, Interests, and Needs:
Armenia
Armenia will reconcile
with Turkey w/0 any
preconditions.
Turkey should first ratify
Protocols
•Economics
Azerbaijan Turkey
NONE •Politics
•Ideology
• Security
• Territorial
Azerbaijan & Turkey Integrity Turkey is for “Zero-
are allies. Turkey • Survival Problems” Thus, Turkey
Should consider NK wants to reconcile &
conflict before •Politics open borders, but
ratifying protocols •Energy Projects since Azerbaijan is
and opening borders •Trade crucial for Turkey,
Armenia should
•Culture
resolve NK conflict
•Ideology
first.

18. 2.Analysis of How Key Narratives
Change Over Time and for What
Reason

19. Intensity indicators:
45
Domestic Protests INTENCITY
40
Signing Protocols
35
30
25 Int. support articles
ARM
20 Signing Protocols AZE
Sep 6thMatch in Yerevan Agreeing on Roadmap
15 TR
INT
10
5
0

20. Comparison of Opinions:
40
35 Domestic Protests
30
OPINIONS AGAINST
25
Armenian Parliament
Protests from Diaspora takes the issue from ARM
20
15 and Dashnaks party agenda AZE
10 TR
5 INT
0
30 OPINIONS FOR
Signing Protocols
25
20
Signing Protocols ARM
15
Roadmap Int. support
AZE
TR
10
INT
5
0

21. Multi Issue Bargaining Model before and after
Azerbaijan’s Intervention:
Turkey Armenia Turkey Armenia
E
A5 B5 A6 a6 b6 B6
A4 a4 b4 B4 A5 a5 b5 B5
A3 a3 S b3 B3 A4 a4 E b4 B4
A2 a2 b2 B2 A3 a3 b3 B3
A1 a1 b1 B1
A2 a2 b2 B2
0a 0b A1 a1 S b1 B1
0a 0b
1. A1 – B1 = Security concerns 5. A4 – B4 = Open Borders
2. A2 – B2 = Cultural Exchange 6. A5- B5 = Armenian Genocide
3. A3-B3 = Possibility for 7. A6 – B6 = Resolution of NK conflict
Armenians to visit Van City in 8. S = Bargaining Space
Eastern Turkey

22. Analysis of a Dialogue Among Parties

23. Correlation analysis for finding dialogue
among parties:
ARM AZE TR
ARM - no no
AZE no - no
TR no no -
4.5 Average Indicator
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 ARM
1.5 AZE
1 TR
0.5
0

24. Further Predictions

25. Positions of Key Players in Future:
4
3.5
3 ARM
2.5 AZE
2 TR
1.5 INT
1
0.5
0
"The question of Turkey's opening borders with Armenia is closed and
there will be no more return to this topic again“
Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan Republic

26. Limitations of current research

27. Bibliography
• News Armenia (www.newsarmenia.ru)
• Trend Information Agency (www. trend.az)
• Hurriyet Daily News (www.hurriyetdailynews.com)
• The New York Times (www.ny.com)
• An Azerbaijani Perspective. (2010).Insight, 12(2), 41-47.
• Aras, B., & Özbay, F. (n.d.). Turkish-Armenian Relations Will Football Diplomacy Work Seta, (10).
: ?
• Baran, Z. (2002). The Caucasus Ten Years after Independence. International Studies, 221-234.
:
• Cornell, S. E. (2006). Turkey and the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh a delicate balance, (March 2012), 37-41.
:
• Gunter, M., & Rochtus, D. (2010). Special Report: The Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement. Middle East Critique, 19(2), 157-172.
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• Pinar Ipek (2009). Azerbaijan ’ s Foreign policy and Challenges for Energy Security. Middle East Journal, 63(2).
• Sovacool, Benjamin K, Cursed by Crude: the Corporatist Resource Curse and the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan
Pipeline, Environment, November 2010
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• Karaalp, H Simay, Competitiveness of Turkey in Eurasia : A Comparison With CIS Countries, Business, 2011
• Zalewski, Piotr, The bumpy road to Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, Business, 2009
• Caucasus Research Resource Center, http://www.crrc.az/
• Global Security online magazine, http://www.globalsecurity.org/
• New York Times
• Radio Liberty
• MFA of Azerbaijan Republic, http://www.mfa.gov.az/