A tiny step to Futures Studies methods and techniques...

1. By:
Vahid Shamekhi
Sep 2014
Introduction to Futures Studies:
Methods/ Techniques

2. 2014 Wildlife Photographer Competition

3. Why?
What?
Applications
Considerations
Techniques

4. General Futures Studies Procedure
(Technology-Approach)
• gathering and interpreting information
1. Technology monitoring, technology
watch, technology alerts
• converting that information into usable intelligence
2. Technical intelligence and
competitive intelligence
• anticipating the direction and pace of changes3. Technology forecasting
• relating anticipated advances in technologies and
products to generate plans
4. Technology roadmapping
• anticipating the unintended, indirect, and delayed
effects of technological changes
5. Technology assessment, and forms
of impact assessment, including
strategic environmental assessment
• effecting development strategy, often involving
participatory mechanisms
6. Technology foresight, also national
and regional foresight
MIT (2008)

5. Quantitative Qualitative Normative Exploratory
Agent Modeling * *
Casual Layered Analysis * *
Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics
Cross- Impact Analysis * *
Decision Modeling * *
Delphi Techniques * *
Econometrics and Statistical Modeling * *
Environmental Scanning * *
Heuristic Modeling * *
Field Anomaly Relavation * *
Futures Wheel * * *
Genius Forecasting, Vision and Intuition * * *
Multiple Perspective * * *
Participatory Methods * *
Relavance Trees and Morphological Analysis * *
Roadmapping * * *
Robust Planning * * *
Scenario Planning * * * *
Simulation- Gaming * *
Structured Analysis * * *
System Modeling * *
Technological Sequence Analysis * *
Text mining * * *
Trend Impact Analysis * *
Millennium Project (2009)

6. Environmental Scanning
major trends,
issues,
advancements,
events and ideasnewspapers,
magazines, Internet,
television,
conferences, reports,
including science-
fiction books
to analyze various
aspects of the project
and to decide on the key
issues to be examined
lone signals (individual factors that
might indicate change); landmark
events (in various areas of life);
forecasts of experts; and statistical
descriptions

7. Thinking Futures (2009)

8. Thinking Futures (2009)

9. Trend Analysis
observe and register
the past performance
of a certain factor and
project it into the future
quantitative, mainly based
on statistical data; and
qualitative
Reveal surprising
historical and current
data patterns

10. IFTF (2011)

11. IFTF (2011)

12. Delphi Method
facilitating a group
communication process
to deal with a
complex problem

13. Applications
Decision
Modelling
• DARPA
• Auto
Manufacturing
Priority
studies
• Millennium
project study
topics
SOFI studies
• The Global
State
• Republic of
Korea State
• South Africa
Global State
Studies in
support of
UNESCO
Resource
allocation
(World Bank
subcontractor)

14. Simulation and Modelling
computer-based
tools developed to
represent reality
They facilitate the
understanding of connections
between factors and events
and the examination of their
dynamics
what would happen in
the real world if certain
conditions, imitated by
the model, developed.

15. Visioning
desirable futures
and emphasis to
values
images of the future
lead present behaviors,
guide choices and
influence decisions.
A vision is usually seen as a
positive, desirable image of the
future and can be described as a
compelling, inspiring statement…
Vision comprises
peoples values,
wishes, fears and
desires.

16. Futures Workshops
preparation, critique
fantasy and implementation

18. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
The key principle of this method is using and integrating different ways of knowing.
late 1980s
creating more-effective policies and strategies

19. Problem
Litany: Official public description of issue
Causes
Social, Economic,
Cultural
Social Science Analysis: Short-term historical facts
uncovered. Solution values
with structures
Discourse Analysis: World-
view solution often in
consciousness transformation
Worldviews
Metaphors and Myths Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Solution can
rarely be rationally designed

20. CLA
Litany
Social causes
Worldview
Myth
Newspaper headlines, superficial, common
public perceptions
STEEP analysis
Cultural/social/religious perspective or
worldview
Emotional, images or deep meanings
PublicUnconscious
SuperficialDeepMeaning

21. “Real”
“Imagined”
TIMEShort
Term
Long
Term
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
Litany
Social system
& structure
Worldview
Myth &
Metaphor

22. Medical
MistakesMore than 200000
deaths each year!!!

23. Relevance Tree
subdivides a
large subject
hierarchical
structure
comprehensive
detail

24. Morphological Analysis
identification of new
product opportunities
creation of a new
alternative, which
could fill the gaps
and meet any needs
to attain an overall
perspective of
possible solutions

25. Futures Wheel
powerful technique for drawing out opinions and ideas, but
is sensitive to underlying assumptions.
structured brainstorming identifying and packaging

26. Cross-impact Analysis
how perceptions of future events may interact with each other
most events and trends are interdependent in some way
analytical
approach
‘chains of causality: x affects y; y affects z’.
individuals
and
groups
elementary qualitative level, more complicated and intensive quantitative analysis

27. Back-view mirror Analysis
qualitative analysis of
the past using both
quantitative and
qualitative data.
any future-
oriented group
process has to
manage peoples’
difficulties in
thinking into the
future.
fears or lack
of experience
in futures
thinking
a new perspective
that looks to the past
instead of starting the
process in the
present.

28. Content Analysis
books, journals, newspapers, private
letters, publications of political parties,
reports, surveys, interviews, television,
Internet and so on

29. Scenario
Planning

30. At least two unrelated critical uncertainties and
describe their extreme
Uncertainties
Trends

31. Use the scenarios to test the robustness of
your future solution
Name Scenarios
C

32. IFTF (2011)

33. Roadmapping

34. Current
State
Vision
State
HOW?

35. Logic
Goal to achieve
Milestones to be met
Gaps to be filled
Actions to overcome
gaps and barriers
What and when things
need to be achieved

36. IEA (2013)

37. Next Step…

39. "Any useful statement about the futures
should appear to be ridiculous."
- Jim Dator

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42. References
• Jerome C. Glenn, Futures Research Methodologies, 2009.
• John Ratcliffe, The Futures Academy, 2008.
• Ulf Pillkahn, Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy
Development, 2008.
• John Holmberg, Introduction to Future Studies, Barcelona, June 2011.
• Linda Groff and Paul Smoker, Introduction to Future Studies, State
University of California, 1999.
• Ritchey, General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-
quantified modeling, 1998
• …