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Historic Development
Historic
Development      1953-65
                           • Initial Stage
Current State
                 1966-80
                           • Growth Stage
VW competitive
position                   • Open Market Stage
                 1981-90
VW versus GM
                  1991
                           • Comprehensive Development
Future
Development
                  NOW
                           • Current State of Economy
Conclusion
1. Initial Stage
                       50s – mid 60s
Historic         • Factories job was to copy and assemble
Development
                   automobiles.
Current State    • By 1965, 21 plants

VW competitive
position              2. Growth Stage
VW versus GM         mid 60s – early 80s
Future           • Government’s policy was to construct
Development        Regional Industries.
Conclusion
                 • By 1980, 53 plants out of 2379 enterprises
                   12.5% sedans
3. Open Market Stage
                            mid 80s – early 90s
Historic         •       Radical restructuring.
Development      •       Increased investment to meet demand.
                 •       Introduction of foreign technology, foreign technology
Current State            and management support.

VW competitive
                 4. Comprehensive Development
position
                           since 90s
VW versus GM         •    Automobile industry became core part of Chinese
                          economy.
Future               •    15% Average annual growth.
Development          •    Enterprises are forced to improve products and service
                          quality.
Conclusion           •    Switch from trucks to sedans.
Market Restrictions
Historic       • Foreign companies were only allowed to make joint
Development      ventures of no more than 50% with local companies and
                 localize 40% of the parts and components to encourage
Current State    the local industry.
               • High protectionism measures
VW competitive
               • Government was keeping brakes on the market
position
               • Regardless of their ranks, Government Employees were
VW versus GM     banned from purchasing cars
               • Imports quotas and tariffs
Future         • Non-attractive market due to Consumer behaviors:
Development       1. Preferring cash purchases
                  2. Preferences made on emotional factors and
Conclusion
                     intangible attributes rather than efficiency or speed
Current state of the Economy
Historic
Development                Market Structure

Current State
                  Global                      China
VW competitive     6+3                        3+X
position
                   Large Motor
                                                 FAW
VW versus GM         Groups


Future            Independent
                                                 DFMC
                  Manufacturers
Development

Conclusion                                       SAIC
Current state of the Economy
Historic
Development
                 6 + 3 Status
                 Guiding Principles:
Current State
                 • Form larger competitive groups
VW competitive
position         • Strategic reorganization
VW versus GM
                 • Intensive R & D
                 • Start International cooperation
Future
Development

Conclusion
Current state of the Economy
Historic         3 + X status
Development
                 • First Automobile Workshop FAW
                   10 b$ revenue
Current State
                   22 joint ventures – includes: Audi & Mazda
VW competitive   • Dongfeng Motor Corporation
position           6 b$ revenue
                   joint ventures: Nissan, Citroen & Kia
VW versus GM
                 • Shanghai Automobile Industry Corporation SAIC
                   the biggest group in china, >10 b$ revenue
Future
Development        strong ties with government officials
                   52 joint Ventures: VW & GM
Conclusion
Current state of the Economy                     “2004”



Historic
Development
                 • Enterprises:
                   majority are state owned
Current State      account for 30% of production
VW competitive   • Sales:
position           4.44 million units
VW versus GM     • Imports and Exports, 2003:
                   import: 171,903 units of 5.29 b $
Future             export: 47,439 units of 370 m $
Development
                   in 2006, reached 340,000 units
Conclusion
Current state of the Economy
                                                2004 Sales ratios

Historic
                                                    Trrucks
Development                                          28%                        Sedans
                                                                                 45%
Current State                                   Passenger
                                                   Cars
                                                   27%
VW competitive
position

VW versus GM                                 Enterprises Number
                 4000
Future           3000                                        2904 2596                 2326
Development      2000                           1228                                          Enterprises
                 1000                 522                                                     Number
                        104
Conclusion          0
                        1956
                               1960
                                      1965
                                             1970
                                                    1975
                                                           1980
                                                                  1985
                                                                         1990
                                                                                1995
                                                                                       2000
Current state of the Economy
Historic
Development
                 Joining WTO, 2001
                 • Decrease tariffs 10% annually for sedans
Current State      and 4-8% for trucks and passenger cars.
VW competitive
                 • Complete cancellation of quotas in 5 years.
position         • Cancellation of restrictions of importing
                   critical parts.
VW versus GM
                 • Allowance of 100% FDI
Future           • Adoption of international after-sale services
Development
                 • Removal of protectionism
Conclusion
What worked for VW up till 2004?
Historic
Development




                                                                                                                  VW Strategy
                                                                  Strong alliance with SAIC
                High growth & demand in China
                                                • Middle class                                • SAIC is a SOE                   • First Mover
                                                  income jumped                               • Strong policy                     advantage
                                                  from USD $                                    support                         • Simple
Current State                                     460- $1091                                                                      technology,
                                                                                              • Localisation
                                                • Option of car                                 with local                        simple product
                                                  financing by                                  suppliers with                  • High German
VW                                                state owned                                   SAIC support                      Quality
competitive                                       banks                                       • Domestic                        • Low
                                                • 30% annual                                    content soared                    investment for
position                                          growth rate                                   to 70% in early                   distribution
                                                                                                90s                               network
                                                                                                                                • High op.
VW versus GM                                                                                                                      margin: 30%
                                                                                                                                  vs. R.O.W 5%
Future
Development

Conclusion
VW Competitive Position by 2004
                • Summer 2004 VW faced critical issues:
Historic
Development
                                             Weak Sales and product
                    High Cost structure
                                                     teams
Current State

VW
                                               Change in Customer
competitive          Changing Market;             Profile: Simple
position           market share plunge to       technology, simple
                            16%                products strategy no
                                                  longer works!
VW versus GM

Future
                                  Losing First Mover
Development                          Advantage!

Conclusion
VW Change Management Programme
Historic        • “Start from Zero” change
Development
                  management programme
Current State

VW
competitive     • Marcus Schütz, Director was tasked
position
                  to design and implement change
VW versus GM      initiatives over next 3 years.
                • Develop new set of success factors
Future
Development       that is sustainable!
Conclusion
VW Dilemma
Historic
Development
                Sales infrastructure           FAW vs. SAIC               Modification of
Current State                                                             Product Strategy
                • Reselling and distributing   • Bitter competitors
VW                done by SAIC a failure       • Separate distribution    • German standards=
                • Lack of control of S&M         networks and supply        overdesigning
competitive     • SVW Sales Corporation:         bases                    • Little flexibility for
                  24 RSSCs and 700 dealers     • Impossible to create       consumer preferences
position          too late                       synergies btw SAIC and   • CKD transfer to local
                • B2B to B2C structure           FAW                        bases
                                               • High cost management     • Weak negotiation point
VW versus GM

Future
Development

Conclusion
GM’s issues
Historic
Development

Current State

VW competitive
position
                 Slow turnaround time

VW versus GM
                 Poor business strategy

Future
Development      Burdened with high cost eg pensions benefits


Conclusion       Financial crisis and prospect of bankruptcy
VW vs. GM in China
Historic
                           • First mover advantage
Development                • S&M retrieved from SAIC too late

Current State      VW      • Fear of losing technology
                             advantage
                           • German Quality
                             standard=overdesign
VW competitive
position
                           • S&M in their control from day one
VW versus GM               • Channel of technology transfer

Future
Development
                   GM      • Left localization to local
                             automakers
                           • Build a component industry


Conclusion

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China automobile

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3. Historic Development Historic Development 1953-65 • Initial Stage Current State 1966-80 • Growth Stage VW competitive position • Open Market Stage 1981-90 VW versus GM 1991 • Comprehensive Development Future Development NOW • Current State of Economy Conclusion
  • 4. 1. Initial Stage 50s – mid 60s Historic • Factories job was to copy and assemble Development automobiles. Current State • By 1965, 21 plants VW competitive position 2. Growth Stage VW versus GM mid 60s – early 80s Future • Government’s policy was to construct Development Regional Industries. Conclusion • By 1980, 53 plants out of 2379 enterprises 12.5% sedans
  • 5. 3. Open Market Stage mid 80s – early 90s Historic • Radical restructuring. Development • Increased investment to meet demand. • Introduction of foreign technology, foreign technology Current State and management support. VW competitive 4. Comprehensive Development position since 90s VW versus GM • Automobile industry became core part of Chinese economy. Future • 15% Average annual growth. Development • Enterprises are forced to improve products and service quality. Conclusion • Switch from trucks to sedans.
  • 6. Market Restrictions Historic • Foreign companies were only allowed to make joint Development ventures of no more than 50% with local companies and localize 40% of the parts and components to encourage Current State the local industry. • High protectionism measures VW competitive • Government was keeping brakes on the market position • Regardless of their ranks, Government Employees were VW versus GM banned from purchasing cars • Imports quotas and tariffs Future • Non-attractive market due to Consumer behaviors: Development 1. Preferring cash purchases 2. Preferences made on emotional factors and Conclusion intangible attributes rather than efficiency or speed
  • 7.
  • 8. Current state of the Economy Historic Development Market Structure Current State Global China VW competitive 6+3 3+X position Large Motor FAW VW versus GM Groups Future Independent DFMC Manufacturers Development Conclusion SAIC
  • 9. Current state of the Economy Historic Development 6 + 3 Status Guiding Principles: Current State • Form larger competitive groups VW competitive position • Strategic reorganization VW versus GM • Intensive R & D • Start International cooperation Future Development Conclusion
  • 10. Current state of the Economy Historic 3 + X status Development • First Automobile Workshop FAW 10 b$ revenue Current State 22 joint ventures – includes: Audi & Mazda VW competitive • Dongfeng Motor Corporation position 6 b$ revenue joint ventures: Nissan, Citroen & Kia VW versus GM • Shanghai Automobile Industry Corporation SAIC the biggest group in china, >10 b$ revenue Future Development strong ties with government officials 52 joint Ventures: VW & GM Conclusion
  • 11. Current state of the Economy “2004” Historic Development • Enterprises: majority are state owned Current State account for 30% of production VW competitive • Sales: position 4.44 million units VW versus GM • Imports and Exports, 2003: import: 171,903 units of 5.29 b $ Future export: 47,439 units of 370 m $ Development in 2006, reached 340,000 units Conclusion
  • 12. Current state of the Economy 2004 Sales ratios Historic Trrucks Development 28% Sedans 45% Current State Passenger Cars 27% VW competitive position VW versus GM Enterprises Number 4000 Future 3000 2904 2596 2326 Development 2000 1228 Enterprises 1000 522 Number 104 Conclusion 0 1956 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
  • 13. Current state of the Economy Historic Development Joining WTO, 2001 • Decrease tariffs 10% annually for sedans Current State and 4-8% for trucks and passenger cars. VW competitive • Complete cancellation of quotas in 5 years. position • Cancellation of restrictions of importing critical parts. VW versus GM • Allowance of 100% FDI Future • Adoption of international after-sale services Development • Removal of protectionism Conclusion
  • 14. What worked for VW up till 2004? Historic Development VW Strategy Strong alliance with SAIC High growth & demand in China • Middle class • SAIC is a SOE • First Mover income jumped • Strong policy advantage from USD $ support • Simple Current State 460- $1091 technology, • Localisation • Option of car with local simple product financing by suppliers with • High German VW state owned SAIC support Quality competitive banks • Domestic • Low • 30% annual content soared investment for position growth rate to 70% in early distribution 90s network • High op. VW versus GM margin: 30% vs. R.O.W 5% Future Development Conclusion
  • 15. VW Competitive Position by 2004 • Summer 2004 VW faced critical issues: Historic Development Weak Sales and product High Cost structure teams Current State VW Change in Customer competitive Changing Market; Profile: Simple position market share plunge to technology, simple 16% products strategy no longer works! VW versus GM Future Losing First Mover Development Advantage! Conclusion
  • 16. VW Change Management Programme Historic • “Start from Zero” change Development management programme Current State VW competitive • Marcus Schütz, Director was tasked position to design and implement change VW versus GM initiatives over next 3 years. • Develop new set of success factors Future Development that is sustainable! Conclusion
  • 17. VW Dilemma Historic Development Sales infrastructure FAW vs. SAIC Modification of Current State Product Strategy • Reselling and distributing • Bitter competitors VW done by SAIC a failure • Separate distribution • German standards= • Lack of control of S&M networks and supply overdesigning competitive • SVW Sales Corporation: bases • Little flexibility for 24 RSSCs and 700 dealers • Impossible to create consumer preferences position too late synergies btw SAIC and • CKD transfer to local • B2B to B2C structure FAW bases • High cost management • Weak negotiation point VW versus GM Future Development Conclusion
  • 18. GM’s issues Historic Development Current State VW competitive position Slow turnaround time VW versus GM Poor business strategy Future Development Burdened with high cost eg pensions benefits Conclusion Financial crisis and prospect of bankruptcy
  • 19. VW vs. GM in China Historic • First mover advantage Development • S&M retrieved from SAIC too late Current State VW • Fear of losing technology advantage • German Quality standard=overdesign VW competitive position • S&M in their control from day one VW versus GM • Channel of technology transfer Future Development GM • Left localization to local automakers • Build a component industry Conclusion