The study is a 360 degree analysis of the global rail market that focuses on the key trends and business opportunities available across various rail segments around the world. The study provides an insight into how urbanization is influencing rail travel and highlights trends within the rail industry that are expected to possess huge revenue potentials for industry participants. The study discusses trends and opportunities in the rail markets segmented by regions such as North America, Europe, and BRIC. Urban mobility is bound to evolve towards more efficient economic and operational models. Mobility integrators like technology providers and telecom operators are expected to have greater interests in transportation promoting sustainability. Full report at : http://www.frost.com/m77d For Additional Information Katja Feick, Corporate Communications, Automotive & Transportation Ph: +49 (0) 69 7703343 e-mail: katja.feick@frost.com Cyril Cromier, Sales Director, Automotive & Transportation Europe Ph: +33 1 42 81 22 44 e-mail: cyril.cromier@frost.com Franck Leveque, Vice President - Growth Consulting, Automotive & Transportation Europe Ph: +49 (0)69 770 33 21 Bb: +49 (0)151 27 67 08 24 e-mail: franck.leveque@frost.com

1. Strategic Insight on Global Rail Market
Trends and Opportunities Across Key Regions for Rail
M77D-18
April 2012

2. Research Team
Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst
Surendar Chandrasekaran Shyam Raman
Team Leader Research Analyst
+914466814173
+914466814173
Shyamr@frost.com
Surendarc@frost.com
Research Director Strategic Review Committee Leader
Franck Leveque Praveen Chandrasekar
Vice President, Automotive & Transportation Program Manager, Automotive & Transportation
+49 (0)69 770 33 21 +914466814129
franck.leveque@frost.com cpraveen@frost.com
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3. Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Rail Mega Trends 13
Evolution of Megacities: New Mobility Concepts 31
The Rail Advantage 43
Rail Market Trends in Europe 48
Rail Market Trends in North America 60
Rail Market Trends in Asia-Pacific 72
Rail Market Trends In BRIC and The Middle East 81
Competitive Landscape 105
Legal Disclaimer 110
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4. Executive Summary
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5. Key Trends Across the Global Rail Markets
High speed, urbanisation and emerging economies will be the key enablers of the rail
industry through to 2020.
High-speed rail (HSR) will be the biggest market opportunity, with $900 billion potential for rail
participants globally.
The BRIC and Middle East markets collectively will contribute to $1 trillion in rail investments
between 2011 and 2016.
Urbanization in Asia has increased demand for urban rail systems such as metro, light rail and
monorail. About 120 urban rail systems have been identified in the Asian Region, including the
Middle East.
Chinese CSR and CNR will emerge as one of the top 5 rolling stock OEMs globally.
Increasing fuel prices and rail’s green tag will boost freight transport by rail globally. Considerable rail
modal share gain will occur in North America and Europe by 3% and 5%, respectively, by 2020.
Rail IT deployment: smart ticketing, automated fare collection, and signalling will present the next
wave of business opportunity in the rail sector globally.
Finally, North America’s opening up to passenger rail will create a demand for 14,000 passenger
rolling stock over the next 10 years.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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6. Global Trends in Rail Industry
Emission reductions and automation are the key technology-related enablers of the rail
industry.
Trends Implication Impact on Rail Industry
•Urbanisation leads to expansion of city boundaries Increased travel and need for hassle-
Urbanisation
•Three main concepts: megacities, mega regions, and mega corridors. free, high-speed transport
•Concept to shift from “GREEN” to “SMART” Multimodal transport demand,
Mega Cities •Energy efficiency and zero emissions as the basic premise of SMART initiatives. integrated services, smart ticketing
Urban sprawl, rising disposable incomes, and chocking transport infrastructure are key Rising demand for transportation projects,
Asia Booming urban rail gains strong favour
trends in the region
New Business Next-generation business models will redefine future business propositions and influence Mobility integration, last-mile
Model future technology and product development. connectivity services, on-board WiFi,
station retail
Hybrid locomotives, alternative fuel
Europe and North America funding technologies and programs that will help to cut
C02 Footprint carbon emissions. powertrains, electrification of lines,
advanced drive systems
Increasing Fuel •Less usage of personal transport. Shrinking size of cars for city use only Increasing passenger and freight traffic,
Prices •Increasing modal shift from road to rail automated signalling to boost capacity
•Asian, Eastern European, and North American rail market expectations vary and are New platforms, high levels of
Geographic Variety customisation of rolling stock
considerably different from Western European expectations.
construction
•Increasing use of more than two modes of transport on a daily basis in key European Improved station services, protected
Multimodality and Asian cities. Next-gen AFC key to drive inter-modality in the future bike parks, charging infrastructure for
Evs, onboard cycle portablility
•World with zero emissions, zero accidents, zero fatalities, zero defects.
Innovating to Zero •Companies will shift focus and develop products and technologies accordingly. Evolution to driverless trains, PRT
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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7. Projected Global Infrastructure Investment 2005-2030
Transport investment will account for 19 percent of the total $41 trillion to be spent on
infrastructure.
Rail Market Trends: Mainline Railway Track Additions, Global, 2010 and 2020
North America Europe Middle East
Infrastructure (in billion $)
Infrastructure (in billion $)
Infrastructure (in billion $)
Expenditure on
Expenditure on
Expenditure on
Latin/South America Africa Asia/Oceania
Infrastructure (in billion $)
Infrastructure (in billion $)
Infrastructure (in billion $)
Expenditure on
Expenditure on
Expenditure on
Total in billions
Water $22,610
Power $9,000
Road & Rail $7,800
Air/Seaports $1,590
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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8. Global Passenger Rolling Stock Market
Mainline network growth will be pronounced in the Asian region as India and China expand
their freight corridors.
Rail Market Trends: Mainline Railway Track Additions, Global, 2010 and 2020
1,035,887
1,010,767
• Only a mere 0.2 percent growth in global mainline network length. 7.1%
• Europe to maximise utilisation of its current network for freight; Asia to 3.8%
7.2% add extra capacity in terms of track length
3.9%
Note: Chart In Center Shows Mainline Railway Track Addictions By 2020 In Each Region
Mexico 26.2%
24.9% 26,704
Route Km Operational
Canada
58,495 Others 10.9%
11.0% 63,875
Korea
Others 3,378 Australia
83,160 Japan 10,674
Romania 20,136 21.8%
USA
22.3% 10,776
226,855
Poland
UK 19,864
Ukraine China
16,373
Spain 21,678 Serbia 101,000 Uruguay Others Cuba
30.8% Italy 15,243 4,058 5,076 30.1%
5,752 4,028
16,959
France All Afro-countries Chile
30,001 39,814 Argentina 5,752
Russia India 25,523
Germany 85,894 72,355 Brazil
33,806
30,217
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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9. Projected Global Infrastructure Investment 2005-2030
Transport investment will account for 19 percent of the total $41 trillion to be spent on
infrastructure.
Rail CEO 360: Annual Rolling Stock Market Forecast, Global, 20082016
Annual Market Size
Annual Market Size
($ Billion)
Annual Market Size
($ Billion)
($ Billion)
Annual Market Size
($ Billion)
Annual Market Size
($ Billion)
Legend
2008-2010
2011-2013
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2014-2016
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10. Global Rail Snapshot
Post-2008 crisis, both freight and passenger rail traffic have recovered well across regions.
Rail Market: Length of Railways, Freight and Passenger Turnover, and Growth, Global, 2010
North America Traffic Movement in Russia Traffic Movement
2010 in 2010
Traffic (Billion tkm
8.1%
Traffic (Billion tkm
or pkm)
10.3% China Traffic Movement
6.5%
or pkm)
in 2010
23.3%
Traffic (Billion tkm
9.5% 11.2%
or pkm)
• China and India are the fastest- Europe Traffic India Traffic Movement
growing rail markets. Movement in 2010 in 2010
•
Traffic (Billion tkm
U.S. rail freight has registered the 6.5% 3.1% 8.9%
biggest growth, but is yet to
Traffic (Billion tkm
surpass 2008 traffic levels. 7.8%
or pkm)
• In Europe, traffic has surpassed
or pkm)
pre-recession 2008 levels.
• However, rail freight recovery in
EU 27 has been slow.
• Eastern Europe witnessed further
fall in freight traffic.
Traffic Growth over Traffic Decline
2009 over 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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11. High Speed Infrastructure Market
The global HSR market presents the biggest business potentials in the rail industry. Middle
East and North America are the most attractive turfs for Global OEMs.
High-speed Rail Market: Cumulative High Speed Rail Infrastructure Investments, Global, 2011-2020
$910.61billion
Note: Chart In Center Shows Investments In High Speed Rail Infrastructure By 2020 In Each Region
Turkey
54.73 ME
Switzerland 107.08
$70 billion Sweden 1.80 Total global rail infrastructure
24 investment between 20102020 is 86.78 SA
expected to be $910.61 billion.
Spain 208 NA
97.53 This was total expected investment
in HSR. Most of the Obama
South Korea Canada
APAC 45 1.23 government ‘s planned HSR was 70.65 166.31 APAC
Russia Japan
16.25 voted against in November 2011
Portugal India 29.33
25.15 7.42
Poland
Italy 17.80
Germany 9.88
GCC
24.65 55.00 Argentina US 342.44 EU
China 37.65 137.35
128.33 Morocco
EU 25 Saudi 7.50
France
70.65 Arabia 11.10 Brazil
Iran 49.13
33.48
2011
2011 to 2020
Europe Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa South America North America
HSR is Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
currently South America, $87
SA
operational EU Europe, $338 billion billion
in EU and North America, $137
APAC NA
billion
markets APAC
Asia Pacific, $166
billion Middle East &
only ME
Africa, $107 billion
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12. Global Passenger Travel Trends
By 2050, every individual will travel about 6 km extra globally; high-speed public modes of
transport will be the largest gainers—expected to increase by 20 percentage points.
Rail Mega Trends: Population vs. Passenger Travel, Global, 2050 Global Passenger Km Travelled by Major Mode of
2000 and 2050 Transport
Statistics 2000 2050 CAGR 105.7 billion PKT
World 6.1 billion 9.3 billion 0.8%
Population Each person will travel 5.9
extra km by 2050
PKT 33.3 billion 105.7 billion 2.3% Low Speed
Public
Transport
2000 Global Passenger Km Travelled by Major Mode of Transport 29%
Private
33.3 billion PKT Private Transport
Transport 41%
Source: Cambridge University
55%
Low Speed
Public
Transport
35% High Speed
2000
High Speed
Public 20% pts. Increase Public
2050
Transport Transport
10% In Modal Share 30%
The relative importance of high-speed modes will rise from 10 percent to about 30 percent.
PKT – Passenger kilometer trip
Private Transport – Cars, motorcycles, SUVs
Low-speed Public Transport – Bus, light rail, metro, mini vans Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010.
High-speed Public Transport – HSR, air travel, public rapid transit pods, Maglev, private jets Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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13. Legal Disclaimer
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