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An Introduction to Development Appraisal
& Residual Valuations

Speaker: Simon Wainwright BSc FRICS




                                           1
2013 Lecture Series
              Lecture                    Date
An introduction to development      7th February 2013
appraisal & residual valuations:
Cash flow techniques and           13th February 2013
sensitivity analysis:
Possession strategy :              25th February 2013




                                                    2
9900 Wilshire Boulevard Beverly
              dfdf
Hills




                              3
Valuation of Development Land
Comparison Method or Residual Method?




                                        4
Terminology
•   Residual Valuation
•   Comparable Valuation
•   Development Appraisal
•   Viability Study
•   Feasibility Study




                              5
Think Timeline




                 6
RESIDUAL VALUATION &
DEVELOPMENT APPRAISAL

                        7
Residual Valuation
Month    • Value of Completed Development
 12


Month    • Less Development Profit
 12


Month    • Less Construction Cost
1 - 12


Month    • Less Finance Cost%
1–12


Month    • Residual Site Value
  1


                                            8
Development Appraisal
Month    • Residual Site Value
  1


Month    • Plus Construction Cost
1 - 12


Month    • Plus Finance Cost%
1 - 12


Month    • Less Capital Receipts
 12

Month    • Development Profit
 12


                                     9
Development Appraisal
GROSS DEVELOPMENT VALUE

COST HEADINGS
• Site Cost
• Construction Cost
• Professional Fees
• Marketing Cost
• Finance Cost
• Other Costs

OUTPUTS
• Development Profit
• Profit on Cost %
• Profit on Cost IRR (inc/exc finance)
• Yield on Cost
• Profit / Rent Cover
• Profit Erosion / Dissipation



                                         10
PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT RISK
PROFIT
Land Speculation v Development
Land Speculation                 Development
        • Agricultural Land            • Development Land
  1     • Planning Application     1   • Planning Permission

        • Development Land             • Construction Finance
  2     • Planning Risk            2   • Development Risk

        • Site Sale                    • New Building
  3     • Speculative Profit       3   • Development Profit



                                                               12
Land Plotting & Urbanisation




Urbanisation of Land




                               13
14
Development
Options

Regeneration
Redevelopment
Retrofitting
Refurbishment
Redecoration
Repair & Maintenance
Improvements




                       15
Where do you start?




                      16
Sensitivity Analysis
                                           Letting Period -10%
                                           Letting Period +10%
                                      Construction period -10%
                                   Construction period +10%
                                Pre-construction period -10%
                                Pre-construction period +10%
Variable




                                            Finance Rate -10%
                                            Finance Rate +10%
                                               Land Cost -10%
                                              Land Cost +10%
                                           Building Cost -10%
                                           Building Cost +10%
                                                    Yield -10%
                                                   Yield +10%
                                                    Rent -10%
                                                   Rent +10%


           -80.0%   -60.0%   -40.0%        -20.0%           0.0%   20.0%   40.0%   60.0%   80.0%
                                                   % Profit Change




                                                                                              17
What guidance is available?
• RICS Guidance Note
• RICS Valuation
  Information Paper 12
• RICS Practice Standard
  UK




                                   18
Follow Us
J Peiser Wainwright
Website               Jpeiserwainwright.com
Facebook              /jpeiserwainwright
LinkedIn
Twitter               @JPWNews
Google+




                                              19
An Introduction to Development Appraisal
& Residual Valuations

Speaker: Simon Wainwright BSc FRICS




                                           20

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2013 An Introduction to Development Appraisal

  • 1. An Introduction to Development Appraisal & Residual Valuations Speaker: Simon Wainwright BSc FRICS 1
  • 2. 2013 Lecture Series Lecture Date An introduction to development 7th February 2013 appraisal & residual valuations: Cash flow techniques and 13th February 2013 sensitivity analysis: Possession strategy : 25th February 2013 2
  • 3. 9900 Wilshire Boulevard Beverly dfdf Hills 3
  • 4. Valuation of Development Land Comparison Method or Residual Method? 4
  • 5. Terminology • Residual Valuation • Comparable Valuation • Development Appraisal • Viability Study • Feasibility Study 5
  • 8. Residual Valuation Month • Value of Completed Development 12 Month • Less Development Profit 12 Month • Less Construction Cost 1 - 12 Month • Less Finance Cost% 1–12 Month • Residual Site Value 1 8
  • 9. Development Appraisal Month • Residual Site Value 1 Month • Plus Construction Cost 1 - 12 Month • Plus Finance Cost% 1 - 12 Month • Less Capital Receipts 12 Month • Development Profit 12 9
  • 10. Development Appraisal GROSS DEVELOPMENT VALUE COST HEADINGS • Site Cost • Construction Cost • Professional Fees • Marketing Cost • Finance Cost • Other Costs OUTPUTS • Development Profit • Profit on Cost % • Profit on Cost IRR (inc/exc finance) • Yield on Cost • Profit / Rent Cover • Profit Erosion / Dissipation 10
  • 11. PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT RISK PROFIT
  • 12. Land Speculation v Development Land Speculation Development • Agricultural Land • Development Land 1 • Planning Application 1 • Planning Permission • Development Land • Construction Finance 2 • Planning Risk 2 • Development Risk • Site Sale • New Building 3 • Speculative Profit 3 • Development Profit 12
  • 13. Land Plotting & Urbanisation Urbanisation of Land 13
  • 14. 14
  • 16. Where do you start? 16
  • 17. Sensitivity Analysis Letting Period -10% Letting Period +10% Construction period -10% Construction period +10% Pre-construction period -10% Pre-construction period +10% Variable Finance Rate -10% Finance Rate +10% Land Cost -10% Land Cost +10% Building Cost -10% Building Cost +10% Yield -10% Yield +10% Rent -10% Rent +10% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% % Profit Change 17
  • 18. What guidance is available? • RICS Guidance Note • RICS Valuation Information Paper 12 • RICS Practice Standard UK 18
  • 19. Follow Us J Peiser Wainwright Website Jpeiserwainwright.com Facebook /jpeiserwainwright LinkedIn Twitter @JPWNews Google+ 19
  • 20. An Introduction to Development Appraisal & Residual Valuations Speaker: Simon Wainwright BSc FRICS 20

Editor's Notes

  1. ContentsTerminologyLand speculation vs Property DevelopmentRisk management and the necessity for profit.Purposes for which such studies are undertakenGood practice - What guidance is available?Where to obtain your data?Volatility and interpretation of results
  2. 9900 Wilshire Boulevard Beverley Hills LA235 Condominiums 17,000 sqft retail2004 $33.7mNew Pacific Realty2007 $500mCandy & CandyBancoInbursa took over from Kaupting for $356m loan2010 $148m Sale to Hong Kong Investor
  3. Differences between two sitesAccess – restricted headroomAccess – highways capacityServices availability – gas, water, electricitySoil conditionsLevelsContaminationImpediments e.g. Pylons, viewing corridorsListed buildingsMineralsArchaeologyFloodingOccupiersCovenants