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The session
shall begin
shortly…
Mean and Variance of
Discrete Probability
Distributions
Statistics & Probability
Grade 11
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
For a discrete random variable X
with probability distribution
function P(X), the EXPECTED VALUE
or MEAN of X is given by
      E X x P x
Mean of a Random Variable
The mean is equal to the SUM of the PRODUCTS of the
values of X and their corresponding probabilities P(X)
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Remarks:
1. “The mean of the random
variable” can also mean
“the mean of the
probability distribution.”
Mean of a Random Variable
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Remarks:
2. The mean of a random variable
is the weighted AVERAGE value
of all the possible values of X,
with the weights being the
probabilities of the respective
values of X.
Mean of a Random Variable
Find the
mean of the
given
probability
distribution.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
X P(X)
0 0.05
1 0.15
2 0.35
3 0.45
number
of head
X
0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
If three coins
are tossed,
find the
mean of the
number of
heads X that
occur.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
Solution
Recall that the pdf for the
number of heads is as
follows:
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
For a discrete random
variable X with probability
distribution function P(X), the
VARIANCE of X is given by
      2 2 2
Var X x P x
Variance of a Random Variable
Note: so    2 2
x P x E X    2 2 2
E X
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
The STANDARD DEVIATION of
a discrete random variable X
is the SQUARE ROOT of its
variance:
    2 2
x P x
The Standard Deviation
X P(X)
0 0.05
1 0.15
2 0.35
3 0.45
Find the
variance and
standard
deviation of the
given probability
distribution.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Variance of a Random Variable
A study conducted by a TV station
showed the number of televisions per
household and the corresponding
probabilities for each. Find the mean,
variance, and standard deviation.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
a.An investment in Project A will
result in a loss of P 26,000 with
probability 0.30, break even
with probability 0.50, or result
in a profit of P 68,000 with
probability 0.20. What is the
expected value of this
investment?
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
b. Meanwhile, an investment in
Project B will result in a loss of
P 71,000 with probability 0.20,
break even with probability
0.65, or result in a profit of
P 143,000 with probability
0.15. Which investment is
better: A or B?
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
In the Mr. and Ms. CABT Raffle
Draw, there is one winner of P
10,000, one winner of P 5000, and
five winners of P1000. One
thousand tickets are sold at P10
each. Find the expectation if a
person buys one ticket.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
In the Mr. and Ms. CABT Raffle Draw, there is one
winner of P 10,000, one winner of P 5000, and five
winners of P1000. One thousand tickets are sold at
P10 each. Find the expectation if a person buys one
ticket.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
Prize 0 1,000 5,000 10,000
Gain (X) 10 990 4,990 9,990
No. of tickets 993 5 1 1
Probability 0.993 0.005 0.001 0.001
In the Mr. and Ms. CABT Raffle Draw, there is one
winner of P 10,000, one winner of P 5000, and five
winners of P1000. One thousand tickets are sold at
P10 each. Find the expectation if a person buys one
ticket.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
Gain X 10 990 4,990 9,990
P(X) 0.993 0.005 0.001 0.001
The following is the pdf:
JM the financial adviser suggests that his
client Manay Ehljie select one of two types
of bonds in which to invest her P 5,000.
Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default
rate of 2%. Bond Y has a return of 2.5% and
a default rate of 1%. Find the expected rate
of return and decide which bond would be a
better investment. When the bond defaults,
the investor loses all the investment.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
JM the financial adviser suggests that his client Manay Ehljie
select one of two types of bonds in which to invest her P 5,000.
Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default rate of 2%. Bond Y
has a return of 2.5% and a default rate of 1%. Find the expected
rate of return and decide which bond would be a better
investment. When the bond defaults, the investor loses all the
investment.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
Amount of return for X:
  5,000 0.04 200
Amount of return for Y:
  5,000 0.025 125
The probability of obtaining a return
(that is, NOT defaulting):
For X: 100%  2% = 98% or 0.98
For Y: 100%  2.5% = 97% or 0.975
JM the financial adviser suggests that his client Manay Ehljie
select one of two types of bonds in which to invest her P 5,000.
Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default rate of 2%. Bond Y
has a return of 2.5% and a default rate of 1%. Find the expected
rate of return and decide which bond would be a better
investment. When the bond defaults, the investor loses all the
investment.
Mean and Variance of Random Variables
Mean of a Random Variable
Return X 5,000 200
P(X) 0.02 0.98
Return Y 5,000 125
P(Y) 0.01 0.975
Do you have any
QUESTIONs?
WhenIlisten,Ihear.
WhenIsee,Iremember.
WhenIdo,Iunderstand.
Final Words….
Thank you!

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CABT SHS Statistics & Probability - Expected Value and Variance of Discrete Probability Distributions

  • 2.
  • 3. Mean and Variance of Discrete Probability Distributions Statistics & Probability Grade 11
  • 4. Mean and Variance of Random Variables For a discrete random variable X with probability distribution function P(X), the EXPECTED VALUE or MEAN of X is given by       E X x P x Mean of a Random Variable The mean is equal to the SUM of the PRODUCTS of the values of X and their corresponding probabilities P(X)
  • 5. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Remarks: 1. “The mean of the random variable” can also mean “the mean of the probability distribution.” Mean of a Random Variable
  • 6. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Remarks: 2. The mean of a random variable is the weighted AVERAGE value of all the possible values of X, with the weights being the probabilities of the respective values of X. Mean of a Random Variable
  • 7. Find the mean of the given probability distribution. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable X P(X) 0 0.05 1 0.15 2 0.35 3 0.45
  • 8. number of head X 0 1 2 3 P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8 If three coins are tossed, find the mean of the number of heads X that occur. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable Solution Recall that the pdf for the number of heads is as follows:
  • 9. Mean and Variance of Random Variables For a discrete random variable X with probability distribution function P(X), the VARIANCE of X is given by       2 2 2 Var X x P x Variance of a Random Variable Note: so    2 2 x P x E X    2 2 2 E X
  • 10. Mean and Variance of Random Variables The STANDARD DEVIATION of a discrete random variable X is the SQUARE ROOT of its variance:     2 2 x P x The Standard Deviation
  • 11. X P(X) 0 0.05 1 0.15 2 0.35 3 0.45 Find the variance and standard deviation of the given probability distribution. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Variance of a Random Variable
  • 12. A study conducted by a TV station showed the number of televisions per household and the corresponding probabilities for each. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable
  • 13. a.An investment in Project A will result in a loss of P 26,000 with probability 0.30, break even with probability 0.50, or result in a profit of P 68,000 with probability 0.20. What is the expected value of this investment? Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable
  • 14. b. Meanwhile, an investment in Project B will result in a loss of P 71,000 with probability 0.20, break even with probability 0.65, or result in a profit of P 143,000 with probability 0.15. Which investment is better: A or B? Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable
  • 15. In the Mr. and Ms. CABT Raffle Draw, there is one winner of P 10,000, one winner of P 5000, and five winners of P1000. One thousand tickets are sold at P10 each. Find the expectation if a person buys one ticket. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable
  • 16. In the Mr. and Ms. CABT Raffle Draw, there is one winner of P 10,000, one winner of P 5000, and five winners of P1000. One thousand tickets are sold at P10 each. Find the expectation if a person buys one ticket. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable Prize 0 1,000 5,000 10,000 Gain (X) 10 990 4,990 9,990 No. of tickets 993 5 1 1 Probability 0.993 0.005 0.001 0.001
  • 17. In the Mr. and Ms. CABT Raffle Draw, there is one winner of P 10,000, one winner of P 5000, and five winners of P1000. One thousand tickets are sold at P10 each. Find the expectation if a person buys one ticket. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable Gain X 10 990 4,990 9,990 P(X) 0.993 0.005 0.001 0.001 The following is the pdf:
  • 18. JM the financial adviser suggests that his client Manay Ehljie select one of two types of bonds in which to invest her P 5,000. Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default rate of 2%. Bond Y has a return of 2.5% and a default rate of 1%. Find the expected rate of return and decide which bond would be a better investment. When the bond defaults, the investor loses all the investment. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable
  • 19. JM the financial adviser suggests that his client Manay Ehljie select one of two types of bonds in which to invest her P 5,000. Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default rate of 2%. Bond Y has a return of 2.5% and a default rate of 1%. Find the expected rate of return and decide which bond would be a better investment. When the bond defaults, the investor loses all the investment. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable Amount of return for X:   5,000 0.04 200 Amount of return for Y:   5,000 0.025 125 The probability of obtaining a return (that is, NOT defaulting): For X: 100%  2% = 98% or 0.98 For Y: 100%  2.5% = 97% or 0.975
  • 20. JM the financial adviser suggests that his client Manay Ehljie select one of two types of bonds in which to invest her P 5,000. Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a default rate of 2%. Bond Y has a return of 2.5% and a default rate of 1%. Find the expected rate of return and decide which bond would be a better investment. When the bond defaults, the investor loses all the investment. Mean and Variance of Random Variables Mean of a Random Variable Return X 5,000 200 P(X) 0.02 0.98 Return Y 5,000 125 P(Y) 0.01 0.975
  • 21. Do you have any QUESTIONs?
  • 22.