Flood Forecasting Technology
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Flood Forecasting Technology Workshop, Dublin, Ireland DHI provided a keynote presentation at the recent Flood Forecasting Technology workshop held at University College Dublin (UCD). The one day workshop described some of the internationally available flood warning platforms, suitable for use in Ireland, and provided an opportunity to discuss requirements with both potential users of warning systems and stakeholders who may use their outputs.
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Flood Forecasting Technology
- 2. Our world is water © DHI Introducing DHI The expert in WATER ENVIRONMENTS #2
- 3. © DHI Our areas of expertise to help solve the world’s toughest challenges in water environments Aqua- & agriculture Marine structure & energy Climate change Coast & marine Surface & ground water Urban water Industry Environment & ecosystems Product safety & environmental risks #3
- 4. What we know Global knowledge of water environments
- 5. At our Core Making this knowledge accessible
- 6. Our software DHI was one of the inventors of computational hydraulics We have been developing numerical modelling software and advanced decision support systems for nearly 50 years
- 7. Flood Forecasting © DHI #7
- 8. Roles • Decision makers • Operator/system maintenance • Public © DHI #8
- 9. © DHI #9 Needs • Overview with quick assessment of operational choices and impacts • Configuration and maintenance. Advanced operations of system • Clear messages to be understood without specialist knowledge
- 10. Decision maker • Evaluate choices quickly • Impact assessment • Issue warnings • Initiate mitigation measures © DHI #10
- 11. Operator/system maintenance • Model set-up • Scenario evaluations • Configuration • Data hook up © DHI #11
- 12. Dissemination • GIS • Time series • Temporal development • Levels of data access © DHI #12
- 13. Configuration and operating system © DHI #13 • Model adaptors configuration through XML files • Workflow - Jobs manager • Create reports
- 14. Openness as you need it – empowering you © DHI #14
- 15. Spreadsheets • Well known spread sheet functionality • Access live data • Build models • Create reports
- 16. © DHI Time series GIS Spreadsheet Scenario Jobs Indicator Analysis MCA/CBA Document Metadata Scripting Scripting • An Iron Python environment • API to all modules • Functionality to store and manage scripts
- 17. Code your own Tools • Code your own • API Access to data • Customization
- 18. Open Software Architecture © DHI
- 19. Full customisation 1. Add your own project tools to the toolbox (ITool) 2. Add your own spreadsheet functions (ISpreadsheetFunction) Pop-up, or tab 4. Add your own context menu entries, and make custom forms pop-up (IVisualizer) 5. Add your own toolstrips to existing views (IToolstrip) 3. Create your own job tasks. 7. Hide the application as we know it, and make it look 100% as you like (IShellExtension + IDataView) 6. DataProviders 8.Adapters
- 20. MIKE Operations MIKE Workbench Desktop WEB Data base GIS Time-series Scripting Spreadsheets Jobs Workbench
- 21. MIKE MODELS MIKE INFO MIKE PLANNING MIKE OPERATIONS MIKE Technologies for all Water Environments • Packaged as standard products • Configurable • Open (e.g. to data) • Extendable (scripting, API) • Release MIKE INFO and MIKE OPERATIONS in Q4 2015
- 22. Embedding Technology in Urban Water Systems: The Aarhus Case Story © DHI #22
- 23. Integrated real-time control and warning for urban areas and receiving waters © DHI #23
- 24. © DHI Aarhus – Denmark … Second largest city in Denmark … European Cultural Capital 2017 - RETHINK Aarhus …Located by the Sea …310,000 inhabitants #24 ©Sculpturesbythesea©visitaarhus
- 25. © DHI Aarhus – Danish for Progress … Architecture and art … Business and industries …Aarhus University …Recreational and active use of the environment #25
- 26. Project domain © DHI #26
- 28. © DHI Project drivers …Integrating water into the urban space … Recreational use of water …New housing area on the harbor front …Rapid city development #28 ©Politiken©Aarhus.dk
- 29. A forward looking project made in co- operation between Aarhus Municipality and Aarhus Water From overall vision for the future to concrete plan of actions. Water Vision 2100 ”Pure water both in nature and for drinking – now and in the future 2100 © Aarhus Water © DHI 29
- 30. © DHI Expected project outcome …Improved water quality/partly bathing water in River Aarhus … Bathing water in the Harbour (hygienic) …Bathing water in Lake Brabrand (hygienic) #30 © Aarhus Water © Aarhus Water © Aarhus Water
- 31. From vision to operation © DHI #31
- 32. © DHI 3 projects - 1 solution …Implementation of infrastructure 2007-2012 …Integrated model based control and warning PREPARED 2009-2013 …Analysis and design 2006-2007 #32
- 33. Boundary conditions © DHI River through the city Recipient for urban water Water level affects CSO Water level in harbour Defines river gradient Rising sea levels? Good water quality - Harbour bath - Housing on the harbour Increased flooding frequency Outflow depended on the sea level Increased rural run-off due climate changes AIM: To forecast the water quality in the harbour Optimize the capacity of the drainage system and the WWTP’s #33
- 34. Domain of real time system control © DHI #34 A B C Return period Rainfallintensity Light rain return period < 1 year Design rain return period 2-10 year Extreme rain return period > 100 year Adapted from: Fratini et al. (2012)
- 35. Challenge – Recreational water is receiving water © DHI 3 wastewater treatment plants 75 combined sewer overflows (CSO) 58 storm water drains 50% of the flow in the river is from WWTPs © DHI #35
- 36. Finding the right solution © DHI • Multiple scenario analysis based on integrated modelling − Retention basin volumes − System layout − WWTP capacity − Storm water system upgrade − Removal of CSO structures − Disinfection of WWTP effluent − Climate scenarios Mike Urban Model #36
- 37. Identified challenges • Sufficient storage tank volume − cost/space limitations in old city center • Sufficient water quality − bathing water quality in Lake Brabrand The Harbour of Aarhus and partly in the River of Aarhus • Climate change − rain intensity and sea level rise © DHI #37 © PREPARED © PREPARED © PREPARED
- 38. Solution - 50 mill. EUR project 2009-2013 • Infrastructure investment − 9 retention basins − Disinfection at WWTPs and basin − Increased hydraulic capacity at WWTPs • Optimized control System − Integrated real time modelling/control (sewer system/WWTP) − Early Warning System © DHI #38
- 39. Integrated Real Time Control System © DHI SCADA Models Rainfall forecast • Automated operation of: − Data collection − Data processing − Model execution − Finding the optimal solution − Control of structures − Issue warnings #39
- 40. Integrated real-time control © DHI Sewer #40
- 41. DHI Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) • Small scale weather radar − X-band radar • Range • 60 km for forecast • 20 km for Quantitative Est. • Spatial resolution (Cartesian) • 500x500, 250x250, 100x100 m • Image frequency • 1 or 5 minute LAWR installation in Aarhus Denmark. © DHI #41
- 42. © DHI MIKE 11 MIKE URBAN MIKE 3MIKE SHE Data flow Model preparation Model execution Real time control Issues of warning Distributed rainfall from DHI Radar Automated Integrated Modelling
- 43. DHI bathing water forecast service © DHI #43 Live data from CSO’s and river model for forecasting Deterministic coastal models of fate of pollutants Live warning and information dissemination
- 44. • App and web based public warning system Public information on bathing water quality © DHI #44
- 45. Internet 45 Environmental Section Aarhus Municipality Aarhus Water Utility company Waterforecast Operated by DHI One realtime system - Integrating data from multiple organizations and authorities © DHI
- 46. Status © DHI #46
- 47. © DHI Project Status …Improved water quality in River Aarhus … Bathing water in the Harbour (hygienic) …Bathing water in Lake Brabrand (hygienic) #47 © Stiften ©Politiken © Stiften
- 48. Saving in investment © DHI • Ordinary and larger retention basins 79 million EUR • Controllable and smaller retention basins 45,6 million EUR • Automation and control system 1,7 million EUR • Total 47,3 million EUR • Saving 32 million EUR 40 % #48
- 49. “Optimise the capacity of YOUR drainage infrastructure and improve water quality by a unique hybrid approach of retrofitting sustainable urban drainage systems and smart management of storm water.” © DHI #49 Future Applications
- 50. Flood Forecasting for All: The Greve Case Story © DHI #50
- 51. Simple and effective web applications for real time monitoring and early warning systems © DHI #51
- 52. Greve – Flood Warning System
- 53. Web solution MIKE Models Rainfall forecast Greve – Flood Warning System MIKE21 FM MIKE URBAN CS MIKE OPERATIONS Automatic Operation Results every 4 hours Forecast 24 hours Web solution based on MIKE products
- 54. Greve – Flood Warning System MIKE Web technology Time-series GIS Spreadsheets … MIKE Web API Website Polymer/Web Components Configurable MIKE product Project specific implementation
- 55. Looking ahead • Faster model execution − Hardware − Surrogate models • Data driven − Model less forecasts? − Management © DHI 55
- 56. Conclusions • System must adapt to roles • Openness – to suit you • One package – serving multiple needs © DHI 56
- 57. For more details Nick Elderfield, DHI Water Environments UK Ltd nje@dhigroup.com Johan Hartnack, DHI jnh@dhigroup.com © DHI #57
Editor's Notes
- Our world is water, it is our one and only priority. For 50 years we have advanced knowledge in water environments through dedicated research and real-life experience.
- If you are displaying this presentation from the package, you can access the Organisation presentation by clicking on the grey arrows, in slideshow mode. Then, to get back to the master credentials, press the ‘Esc’ key of your keyboard. Aquaculture & agriculture – Energy – Climate change Coast & marine – Surface & ground water – Urban water Industry – Environment & ecosystems – Product safety & environmental risk
- DHI is a global specialist in water environments. We are a not for profit, research led organisation with a long heritage of research based scientific and engineering consultancy. 50 years of working in water environments Working in more than 140 countries
- Use software as a vehicle for sharing this knowledge Solutions allow us to develop new approaches and tailor solutions to clients needs based on research. Bringing our global knowledge to bear by our local presence. In over 30 countries.
- Data – gauging stations, weather predictions, multiple sources, Various data sources maintain and qualify data Model – real life and model representation 1D or 2D, complexity, model choices flexibility Infrastructure – redundancy, back up, data reporting, Integrate with existing infrastructure utilize hardware optimally Operations – gates, barriers, temporary storage areas etc. Dynamic system to incorporate operational aspects Dissemination –report to stakeholders, decision makers, public etc. internally and externally
- Decision maker – resposnisbility, need to make informed decisions, time is of the essence, assess situation quickly Operator – requires overview of currentr situation, scenarios under various conditions, Public – To be informed early and effectively with appropriate level of detail
- Decision maker – responsibility, need to make informed decisions, time is of the essence, assess situation quickly Operator – requires overview of current situation, scenarios under various conditions, Public – To be informed early and effectively with appropriate level of detail
- MIKE Workbench Spreadsheets Build spreadsheets model and live data reports using common spreadsheeet functionality
- Scripting (Openness, Extendibility) It provides full access to all functionality in all modules.
- How do we collect bits and pieces from the projects? How do we ensure quality and tracability?
- System designed with the various project roles in mind Three main components with main roles in mind
- Scheduled release is end of 2015; additional information and availability of training courses will be provided later this year.
- Organisation: Aarhus Municipality (political body) started the project and since it is consumer paid by an increase in the water tax (3 kr./l) it had to be passed by the city council The utility Aarhus Water A/S is owned 100% by Aarhus municipality. The project owner is Aarhus Water
- Project: Integrated control and warning for urban wastewater systems during rainfall events Client: Aarhus Water A/S
- Image 1: Aarhus university rang among Top 100 in the world Image 2: Your Rainbow Panorama - art and architecture is focus – the rainbow is on top of the AROS art museum Image 3: Active city with sailsport, kayaking, running and general outdoor focus Image 3: Home to the world leading windfarm manufactur VESTAS and other large leading industries
- Outline of the project area: Bordered by the sea New housing on the harbour River running through the city – used to be a hidden river (covered for health reasons) – is now re-opened and is a blue element in the city and many restaurants are located on its shoreline The upstream Lake Brabrand runs into Aarhus River and feed by smaller upstreams catchments
- First and foremost the rapid city development and political ambitions EU Water Framework Directive EU Bathing Water Directive Image 1: Aarhus River front – restaurants and hang-out spot Image 2: Urban Media Space/DOKK1 – new city library build on the harbour front Image 3: Isbjerget (Icebjerg) high end housing on the harbourfront Image 4: Swimming in Aarhus – picture from the public beach bathing facility ”Den Permanente” at Risskov (north of city center)
- Provided by Aarhus Water In 2007 to 2010 Aarhus Water made a very forward looking project in co-operation with Aarhus municipality. The project is called Water Vision 2100 The purpose of this project is to ensure ”pure water both in nature and for drinking now and in the future 2100”. To ensure this Aarhus Water have to be able to handle climate change and extreme rain in the future. This project ensures that we come from Overall Visions for the future to concete plans of actions which is use in all our projects today and in the future. The project incluced the 6 water disciplines: Groundwater Water supply Urban wastewater Urban stormwater Wetlands Landuse Including the 6 water disciplines we take care of the whole water system. We ensure that there will be drinking water for all citizens in Aarhus and pure and enough water in the rivers. We ensure that the urban areas will fullfill the demands in the waterframe directive and the batning directive. We allso ensure that the urban areas will be abel to adapt to climate change. The overall Vision in the project is disintegrated into concrete plans of actions by making some scenario analysis. In the scenario analysis we tried to look into the future. In co-operation the municipality of Aarhus and Aarhus water setup 3 estimates to ensure pure water for the future. Afterwards we made a very difficult choice – how do we believe the future looks in 2100. The Project I am here to tell you about will ensure we fullfill the demands in the water frame directive and the bathing directive. And the project will help us to minimize flooding in urban areas.
- Images from Aarhus Water
- Organisation: Aarhus Municipality (political body) started the project and since it is consumer paid by an increase in the water tax (3 kr./l) it had to be passed by the city council The utility Aarhus Water A/S is owned 100% by Aarhus municipality. The project owner is Aarhus Water
- The implemented solution is the result of 3 projects Note the time overlap between the last two
- Real time systme control does not aim to solve the effects of extreme rainfall events, but to extend the capacity of the existing system. The domain aim is marked with red. To extend the capacity of the existing system in a more efficent manner and thereby handling the concequences of medium to heavy rainfall in a smarter way. Figure adapted from: A conceptual framework for addressing complexity and unfolding transition dynamics when developing sustainable adaptation strategies in urban water management, C. F. Fratini, M. Elle, M. B. Jensen and P. S. Mikkelsen, 2012, Water Science & Technology Vol 66 No 11 pp 2393–2401 © IWA Publishing 2012
- Red squares are retention basins. Two are located at WWTP’s (Viby and Åby)
- 7 scenarios were identified suitble for solving the task at hand. The most expensive senario costs around 90 mio. Euro. All weirs were removed and all the stormwater collected in several basins. The chosen scenario costs about 50 mio EURO and there will be some polution from the weirs which might cause a concentration of E-coli higher than acceptable in the bathing directive. That is why we needed to combined this solution with an early warning system. The early warning system will get information from the whole system (River, WWTP and sewer system) and the model complex just described before. And of course this has to be running in real time. In this system there is a risk of failure such as a stop in the calculations. Therefore the plan is to operate this real time controlling by using different methods. The use of models is the most complex and is expected to the provide the best controlling strategy. The real time control will also be able to run even though we cannot communicate with one of the bassins, valves, lack of information from level measurements.
- The chosen scenario in solution terms. The majority of the cost is in infrastructure investment (7 new basins – and upgrade of 2 existing).
- The Aarhus system has an update frequency of 10 minutes – meaning every 10 minutes a new optmised solution is computed and communicated
- Schematic overview over the data infrastructure – There are in fact 3 WWTPs and a much larger sewer network. The monitoring and control and reporting is all handled by DHI DIMS.CORE
- More info: http://radar.dhigroup.com Cost efficient small scale weather radar for use in hydrological applications. DHI product and fully intregrated with DHI software such as DIMS.CORE and MIKE.
- MIKE SHE delivers truly integrated modelling of groundwater, surface water, recharge and evapotranspiration — in short, all the aspects of hydrology that are important if your project requires an integrated model. No other tool or combination of tools can match MIKE SHE in terms of seamless integration (M11) MIKE 11 is synonymous with top quality river modelling covering more application areas than any other river modelling package. MIKE URBAN is the urban water modelling software of choice when the important parameters for model selection are usability, work flow, openness, flexibility and GIS integration as well as physical soundness, efficiency and stability of simulation engines. MIKE URBAN covers all water in the city, including: sewers - combined or separate systems or any combination of these storm water drainage systems, including 2D overland flow water distribution systems MIKE URBAN is a complete integration of GIS and water modelling MIKE 3 provides the simulation tools if you need to model 3D free surface flows and associated sediment or water quality processes. MIKE 3 is widely recognized as the gold standard for environmental and ecological studies LAWR: Cost efficient small scale weather radar designed for hydrology needs DIMS.CORE: DIMS.CORE is designed for building solutions that transform data into information for operations and management of utilities. Typical application areas • Wastewater treatment plants • Water supply and distribution • Collection systems DIMS.CORE is a generic and flexible tool also applicable within other domains, such as: • Monitoring, reporting and real time control (RTC) for industries • Real time monitoring of catchment areas integrating surveillance data from deployed automatic equipment • Real time monitoring and control of water intakes for early warning systems • Integration with decision support systems (DSS) and information management systems (IMS) Features Data integration DIMS.CORE is used for linking SCADA system data and models in projects that implement monitoring and/or model based RT control systems.
- Data from combined sewer overflows to the harbour and the coast combined with the model output from River Aarhus are used as boundary conditions for the bathing water forecast model (hosted DHI service) The core of the bathing water forecast (BWF) system is dynamic models (1D, 2D or 3D) with which the physical conditions and the water quality at the bathing water sites can be simulated. Besides being the basis for early warning, the model system can be used to assess the efficiency of different measures. This provides a strong tool for identification of the most cost-effective measures to reduce contamination - a target which is also an important element of the new bathing water directive. Meeting this target is furthermore in accordance with the 6th Environmental Action Programme. The concept of the predictive on-line Bathing Water Forecast System has been developed and proven technically feasible by Copenhagen, Gentofte municipality and Aarhus municipality. The way input data is acquired varies depending upon local needs and economy; from measurements directly in the sewer system to dynamic or empirical modelling of the sources. The source data is automatically provided to the recipient model ensuring current updates of the water quality information. Finally, the results are disseminated though a web-based communication component. The concept is applicable and operational for both marine and fresh water beaches under different conditions (various sources, weather conditions Contact: Hanne Kaas, DHI for more info on the bathing water forecast http://bathingwater.dhigroup.com/services/WaterQualityForecast.html#
- http://ostjylland.badevand.dk/ http://oresund.badevand.dk/
- When building such integrated systems multiple authorities and organisations are often involved. In this project the ground water model (MSHE) is operated by the Municipality and the bathing water forecast (M3) is a DHI service – the rest is a Aarhus Water. Required boundary data and other essential information are communicated by the internet. The are pro and cons for this approach – but one pro is that as the models are kept in with their ”owners” they are maintained and updated better and is it avoided to have multiple version of the same models. DIMS.CORE handles all the data transfers
- Image 1: Easter 2014 recreational use of Lake Brabrand for sports competion Image 2: Aarhus Festuge (Aarhus Cultural Festival Week) Image 3: Aarhus Harbour Beach bar – the harbour bath is not yet open
- Warning system saves ~25 mio € in smaller basins because one yearly compliant event is allowed (if warned) compared to one every 4 years with out warning system (EU Bathing water directive)
- Organisation: Aarhus Municipality (political body) started the project and since it is consumer paid by an increase in the water tax (3 kr./l) it had to be passed by the city council The utility Aarhus Water A/S is owned 100% by Aarhus municipality. The project owner is Aarhus Water
- Project: Integrated control and warning for urban wastewater systems during rainfall events Client: Aarhus Water A/S
- http://greve.dhigroup.com/ greve flooding4U2!
- StormGeo = Nowegian meteorological service Boundary Conditions Water level from Water forecast Rainfall forecast from StormGeo but it takes meteorological data as input for a MUF model that runs every 4h and forcasts the next 24h the dfs2 output file is than the base for the web-solution