NewBase 25 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1719 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf

Copyright © 2024 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1
NewBase Energy News 25 April 2024 No. 1719 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE, Kenya sign investment MoU to develop mining,
technology sectors
(WAM) + NewBase
The Ministry of Investment of the UAE and the Ministry of Finance and National Treasury of the
Republic of Kenya have signed an investment memorandum of understanding, setting the stage for
investment collaboration in mining and technology sectors.
Simultaneously, ADQ, the Abu Dhabi-based investment and holding company, announced a finance
framework agreement with Kenya’s ministry, facilitating investments in priority sectors of the Kenyan
economy, with a potential investment sum of up to US$500 million.
Kenya’s mining sector boasts significant growth potential owing to its abundant reserves of gold,
copper, ilmenite, tantalum, and various non-metallic minerals. The advancement of this industry can
substantially strengthen Kenya’s economy by generating employment opportunities, improving
livelihoods, and positioning the nation as a prominent mining participant in Africa. Known as the
“Silicon Savannah”, Kenya is also the dominant economy in East Africa, contributing to more than
40 percent of the region’s GDP.
The MoU focuses on mineral exploration, mine development, mineral processing, refining, and
mineral marketing in Kenya. One of the key objectives is to explore opportunities for technology
transfer in Kenya’s mineral sector, that would support innovation and growth.
The two countries will also assess avenues for collaboration in promoting responsible stewardship
of the mineral sector, with a strong emphasis on environmental, social, and governance practices,
in addition to exploring avenues for collaboration in research and development within the designated
sectors.
Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi, Minister of Investment of the UAE, said: “This Memorandum of
Understanding marks a new chapter in the shared economic journey of the UAE and Kenya.
Through this partnership, we are laying down the foundation for a future where sustainable mining
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

practices, innovation, and responsible stewardship form the pillars of our mutual growth. We are
committed to leveraging technology to enhance capacities and establish robust governance
practices that will not only propel the mineral sector but also ensure overall prosperity of our
nations.”
The MoU and agreement have been signed on the heels of a bilateral investment cooperation
signed to advance Kenya’s digital infrastructure sector, which was signed last month.
What does Kenya have to offer?
Mineral resources in Kenya include gold, iron ore, talc, soda ash, some rare earth minerals and
gemstones. Gold is mostly restricted to the westernmost part of the country, while areas around
Mobsasa host limestone, niobium, iron ore, gemstones and salt.
Kenya hasn’t been considered a particularly mineral rich
country, but recent geological surveys have indicated
that this assumption could have understated what’s
actually available.
During its first mining years, Kenya’s mineral deposits
were predominantly titanium and non-metallic
substances such as soda ash, which is mined from Lake
Magadi and used in the making of glassware, paper and
industrial chemicals.
This changed in recent years with the development of
Kenya’s first ever large-scale mine, the Kwale mineral
sands project, in 2013. January 2012 saw the
construction of the first Kenyan gold mine, Kilimapesa,
and a particularly rich seam of coal has been found in
Ukambani.
The south coast is emerging as a resource-rich location
too, thanks to discoveries of minerals in the coastal county of Kwale. Situated in the area is Mrima
Hill, which has one of the top five rare earth deposits in the world. There are also niobium reserves
which alone could be worth over $35bn.
“This is by far the largest mineral deposit in Kenya and the find at Mrima Hill will make Kenya one
of the largest rare earth producers in the world,” said Cortec Kenya Mining managing director David
Anderson in 2013.
According to the Kenya Economic Survey 2015, between 2010 and 2014 the total quantity of mineral
production in Kenya rose from 1.4 million tonnes to 1.7 million. The total value of mineral production
rose by over KSh5bn ($50m) from KSh15bn in 2010 to KSh20bn in 2014.
“Kenya will be one of the largest rare earth producers in the world.”
The most significant increases in production and value have been in fluorspar and salt, which have
doubled and triple in quantity respectively between 2010 and 2014. Gold value on the other hand
saw quite a drop, going from KSh6.2bn in 2010 to KSh695m in 2014.
The survey states that the average export price per tonne of soda ash increased by 1.8% between
2013 and 2014, but the price per tonne of fluorspar decreased by about 9%. This is mainly because
of new regulations that restricted the use of some fluorspar products on refrigerants that resulted in
a depressed market and low prices.

Kuwait: Mitsubishi seals Al-Zur Power Station Upgrade contract
TradeArabia News Service
Mitsubishi Power, a key brand of Japanese group Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), has
announced that its consortium with Korea's Heavy Engineering Industries and Shipbuilding
Company (Heisco) has clinched a landmark contract from the Kuwait Ministry of Electricity & Water
& Renewable Energy for the optimisation, rehabilitation of eight units at the Az-Zour South Power
Station, which will recover steam generation capacity, increase reliability of the grid and support
Kuwait's growing power needs.
By replacing deteriorated boiler components with new and upgraded components, and boiler
operation optimisation with upgrading control systems and combustion systems, it is anticipated
that this large-scale reh abilitation project increases the boiler efficiency and leads to a reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions, said a statement from Mitsubishi Power.
Mitsubishi Power pointed out that this significant project underlined the trust and confidence that the
Kuwait Ministry of Electricity & Water & Renewable Energy places in its power technology and
comprehensive service offerings.

The Az-Zour South Power Station has been built in the middle of 1980's and counted as a
cornerstone of Kuwait's energy sector and one of its main pillars providing a total capacity of 2,400
MW.
Under the new contract, Mitsubishi Power
will provide services for the rehabilitation of
the steam units, which aims to improve
operational reliability by overhauling
deteriorated components and integrate a
new Distributed Control System (DCS).
Mitsubishi Power is also providing advanced
environmental improvement technology
solutions aiming at reducing nitrogen oxide
(NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM)
emissions, which aligns with the Kuwait
Environmental Public Authority (KEPA) goals
for emission reduction in the country.
This initiative is pivotal to the country's
energy sector, marking a significant step
towards transitioning to a more efficient and environmentally friendly power generation fleet, in line
with Kuwait's goals for a decarbonized energy future.
"We are pleased to sign this contract with the consortium of Mitsubishi Power and Heisco, our long-
standing partners, to ensure the modernisation of Az-Zour South Power Station with new and
improved cutting-edge power solutions that deliver high efficiency, high performance, and reliable
power to the people of Kuwait," said Engineer Haitham Al Ali Kuwait, Assistant Undersecretary,
Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy.
"Recognizing Kuwait's need for new power capacity to meet our growing energy needs, this project
is a critical step towards supporting a decarbonized energy future," he stated.
With the company's global expertise, proven engineering standards, and track record in high quality
power solutions in Kuwait across the Middle East, we are confident that Mitsubishi Power will
continue to accompany our journey of progress towards a sustainable energy future for the country,"
he added.
Khalid Salem, President of Middle East & North Africa, Mitsubishi Power, said: "Today's
announcement for the Az-Zour South Power Station modernization project is a testament to our
well-established track record in delivering reliable power solutions and successfully executing
rehabilitation and upgrade services in the State of Kuwait over the past 50 years."
"It's a journey we are proud of, and we are confident that through supplying our advanced and
innovative solutions and services, we will continue to support Kuwait Ministry of Electricity & Water
& Renewable Energy in powering the country's ongoing progress and development," stated Salem.
As Kuwait embarks on its next phase of ambitious growth in line with Vision 2035, we are committed
to continue supporting the Ministry in expanding its power infrastructure and steering its transition
towards a low carbon society," he added.-

U.K. Closing In on Zero-Carbon Power Goal
Yale Environment 360
Wind and solar are continuing to push fossil fuels off the U.K. power grid. So far this year, wind is
the nation’s leading source of electricity, and for brief periods, the island of Great Britain has scarcely
needed coal or natural gas.
For one hour on April 15, fossil fuels supplied just 2.4 percent of electricity to England, Scotland,
and Wales, an all-time low, according to an analysis from CarbonBrief.
The Lambrigg Wind Farm near Kendal, England. Steve Oliver via Flickr
CarbonBrief
Since the start of the year, there have been 75 half-hour stretches when fossil fuels met less than
5 percent of demand. The grid operator for Great Britain said it is close to reaching its goal of
supplying zero-carbon power for short periods by
2025, a milestone on its way to a completely
carbon-free grid by 2035.
Through March, wind was the leading source of
power in the U.K., according to the energy think
tank Ember. Overall, wind and solar supplied 42
percent of the nation’s electricity, while fossil
fuels supplied 36 percent. Going into summer,
however, renewable output is likely to drop owing
to a lull in wind speed, Reuters reports.

Share of electricity from gas and coal hits hour-long record low of 2.4%
The share of British electricity generated by burning coal and gas fell to a record low of just 2.4%
earlier this month, analysis shows.
The share of power coming from fossil fuels hit the new low at lunchtime on Monday April 15 and
lasted for an hour, climate and energy website Carbon Brief said.
Analysis of National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) data by Carbon Brief also shows there
were 75 half-hour periods in 2024 so far when fossil fuels accounted for less than 5% of power
demand.
In 2023, there were only 16 half-hour periods where coal and gas met less than 5% of demand, and
just five in 2022, the analysis said.
As recently as 2018, fossil fuels never met less than 10% of demand in a half hour period for
electricity in Britain. The analysis shows fossil fuels’ share of electricity averaged over a day also
fell to a record low, of 6.4%, earlier in the month, on April 5.
The figures show the progress towards the ESO’s goal to operate with 100% zero carbon power –
renewables and nuclear – for short periods from 2025, which requires sufficient low carbon power
and overcoming technical challenges for the grid.
The ESO’s director of system operations Craig Dyke said getting to the 2025 target was a
“significant engineering challenge”, but the operator was confident it would be able to hit the “world-
leading” goal.

It is part of the huge switch going on in the power system, as coal plants close and gas’s share of
electricity generation is reduced in the face of increasing deployment of renewables including
offshore and onshore wind and solar, to cut the carbon emissions driving climate change.
Britain’s last remaining coal power station, Ratcliff- on-Soar, near Nottingham, is due to close at the
end of September.
In just 15 years, the overall share of coal and gas has fallen dramatically from producing 74% of
British electricity in 2009 to only a third in 2023.
Over the same period, the contribution of renewables to the grid has risen from 2% to 40%.
But the Carbon Brief analysis also highlights that so far this year, the maximum share of power
coming from fossil fuels for any given half-hour period is 66%, as the grid still relies on gas when
the wind is not blowing and the sun not shining.
That will mean low carbon alternatives ranging from batteries to gas plants fitted with technology to
capture and store emissions to meet the Government’s targets to fully decarbonise the grid by 2035
or Labour’s even more ambitious 2030 goal.
Mr Dyke said: “Great Britain has
made excellent progress in
decarbonising its electricity
system.
“The ESO has committed to
operating a zero-carbon
electricity system for short
periods of time in 2025.
“We have already seen periods
on the electricity system where
the market has delivered a safe
mix of 90%-plus zero carbon
power.
“This is a culmination of a
significant amount of effort over
a number of years.
It’s not just about technologies,
it’s about hearts and minds and
processes and systems and
people working together across
the industry, the energy
regulator and Government.”
And he said: “Getting to the 2025 ambition has been a significant engineering challenge, which we
are solving.
“We’re confident that we will have the right capabilities on the system to be able to do that which
will be absolutely ground-breaking and world-leading.”

U.S: Bans the Use of Fossil Fuels in New Federal Buildings by 2030
(Bloomberg)
Fossil fuel use will be banned in new federal buildings starting in 2030 under a Biden administration
rule that the natural gas industry fought for more than a decade.
The final rule, announced Wednesday, adds the federal government’s heft to the movement to
electrify buildings as part of the fight against climate change, phasing out gas. New federal buildings
constructed between 2025 and 2029 must achieve a 90% decrease in fossil fuel consumption,
relative to 2003 levels. Those built or substantially renovated from 2030 onward must have no on-
site fossil fuel use.
Over the next 30 years, the rule is expected to cut carbon emissions by 2 million metric tons and
methane emissions by 16 thousand tons, roughly equivalent to the emissions from 310,000 homes
in a single year, according to Energy Department estimates.
The mandate, authorized by a 2007 energy law signed by President George W. Bush, has been
panned by groups such as the American Gas Association, which say natural gas is more affordable
than electricity. Their opposition helped block the Obama administration’s attempts to establish the
rule.
“President Biden has charged the Federal Government to lead by example by transforming its
footprint of over 300,000 buildings to be more energy efficient and climate resilient,” said Brenda
Mallory, chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, in a statement.

U.S: California Now Has So Much Solar Power That Electricity
Prices Are Going Negative During the Day
Frank Landymore
California, which gets over a quarter of its electricity from solar, is generating more power than it
knows what to do with. On sunny days, there's now so much solar energy being supplied that
electricity prices can dip into the negative, The Washington Post reports — a preview of the
economic and infrastructural problems that renewables will have to navigate.
"These are not insurmountable challenges," Michelle Davis at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie
Power and Renewables, told the WaPo. "But they are challenges that a lot of grid operators have
never had to deal with."
Solar power, unlike energy from fossil fuels, isn't "dispatchable," meaning that electricity grid
operators can't control — or even necessarily predict — how much energy it supplies.
This comes into play in what's called "net load": the total demand for electricity minus the energy
supplied by solar and other renewables. What's left over in that equation is the amount of power
from conventional sources that CAISO, California's grid operator, will have to put into the electric
system.
In the morning when everyone's getting up, demand is high. But by midday, the sun's out and solar
energy can provide almost all the power needed, causing prices to plummet.
On a graph of daily net load, this pronounced pattern is called a "duck curve," for its resemblance
to the bird. It's at its most dramatic in the spring, when the skies are sunny but temperatures are
relatively mild, meaning that there's less demand for heating and cooling.
"We drastically underestimated the speed at which residential solar was going to come in," Clyde
Loutan, principal for renewable energy integration at CAISO, told the WaPo.

Fine Shine
In the grand scheme of things, it's a good problem to have. Solar energy is obviously no slouch.
But it also means that a lot of that energy isn't being used. According to the WaPo, 95 percent of
California's 2.4 million megawatt-hours of wasted electricity in 2022 was solar. The chief
consequence of that waste, the WaPo argues, is economic. In the long run, it could cause electricity
prices to go up.
California has responded to this predicament in a way that has angered proponents of renewables.
Last year, the state government started paying solar owners less money for the energy they put into
the grid, a practice known as "net-metering." In effect, this makes solar less affordable, curtailing its
adoption.
Discouraging as that may be, there are other promising solutions to explore. Right now, according
to the WaPo, CAISO is selling some of that extra power to nearby states.
The real game changer would be if, in the future, the widespread use of batteries and other forms
of storage could save any excess solar power generated during the day — meaning the power from
sunny days will be able to last well into the nighttime, instead of forcing fossil fuel power plants to
spin back up.

Battery Recycling Shatters the Myth of Electric-Vehicle Waste
(Bloomberg)
Making a battery for an electric vehicle typically requires mining hundreds of pounds of hard-to-
extract minerals. That’s put a spotlight on batteries’ heavy environmental toll, at least upfront.
But the latest advances in battery recycling, including by leading US battery recycler Redwood
Materials, are shrinking EVs’ footprint.
Traditional methods of ripping materials out of the ground and refining them for battery backs
requires enormous amounts of energy. As a result, the initial carbon footprint of an EV is higher
than a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle. Those upfront emissions are paid back over
time with the superior efficiency of electric motors, leading to a 70% reduction in total emissions
over the average life of the vehicle.
In the US, it takes about 25,500 miles (41,000 kilometers) of driving for an EV to break even,
according to a BloombergNEF analysis. That payback figure, however, assumes that every EV is
made with newly mined lithium, nickel and cobalt — as if all the materials will end up in a landfill at
the end of a vehicle’s life. But that’s not what’s happening.
EV batteries are simply too valuable to toss out, and a new industry of recyclers is busy snatching
them all up.
Though still in its infancy, EV recycling is already profitable and capable of recovering more than
95% of the key minerals. A new analysis by Stanford University researchers, which is still under
peer review, found that Redwood Materials’ recycling process produces up to 80% fewer emissions
than the traditional supply chain using CO2 belching refineries.

That’s enough to shorten an average EV’s environmental breakeven time with an internal
combustion vehicle to less than 15,000 miles. Every mile thereafter is a carbon win against the
internal combustion engine.
Fully assessing when an EV hits its breakeven point depends on the source of electricity used for
battery manufacturing and charging the vehicle. Cleaner electricity means a shorter payback period,
but even in regions that still get electricity from coal, EVs eventually win out.
The boom in renewable energy will make EVs even less polluting. Solar installations have set annual
records worldwide for 22 consecutive years, and the pace appears to be accelerating, according to
data from the International Energy Agency. By 2030, when the US grid is expected to get two thirds

of its power from carbon-free sources, an EV built with recycled materials could break even on
emissions in a matter of months.
Battery Recycling Shatters the Myth of Electric-Vehicle Waste
Clean electricity matters
Fully assessing when an EV hits its breakeven point depends on the source of electricity used for
battery manufacturing and charging the vehicle. Cleaner electricity means a shorter payback period,
but even in regions that still get electricity from coal, EVs eventually win out.
The boom in renewable energy will make EVs even less polluting. Solar installations have set annual
records worldwide for 22 consecutive years, and the pace appears to be accelerating, according to
data from the International Energy Agency. By 2030, when the US grid is expected to get two thirds
of its power from carbon-free sources, an EV built with recycled materials could break even on
emissions in a matter of months.
The Stanford report found that recycling batteries used 79% less energy and resulted in 55% fewer
CO2 emissions compared to traditional refining. Additional savings come from keeping the recycling
supply chain local compared to the globe-circling refining process for freshly extracted minerals.
Closing the loop brings the total CO2 savings to 80%.
The benefits of recycling are only just beginning to accrue, according to Will Tarpeh, an assistant
professor of chemical engineering and one of the Stanford paper’s senior authors. That’s because
EVs are still new, and only relatively small numbers are ready for the recycling heap.

NewBase April 25 -2024 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil steady as US demand concerns outweigh Middle East fears
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices were little up changed on Thursday as falling fuel demand in the U.S., the world's biggest
oil user, amid signs of a slowing economy contended with concerns for a widening conflict in the
key Middle East producing region.
Brent crude futures edged up 17 cents to $88.19 a barrel at 0720 GMT, after falling 0.5% in the
previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June gained 13 cents to $82.94
a barrel, following a 0.6% drop on Wednesday.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed gasoline
demand in the week to April 19 dropped 2.8% from a week earlier and is down 11% from a year
ago. Distillate fuel demand also declined from a week ago and is down 4.7% from a year ago.
The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling U.S. business activity in April and as
stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the U.S. Federal Reserve is more
likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.
Oil price special
coverage

"The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to
market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions," said Emril
Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts,
economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the
Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.
A better indication of the Fed's rate intentions will be seen after U.S. gross domestic product and
March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.
Fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start
an assault on Rafah, in the enclave's south, which may increase the chances of a wider war that
could potentially disrupt Middle East oil supplies. However, there have been no other signs of direct
conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
"Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen,
and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighbouring countries is underpinning oil prices," said
Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week as exports
jumped, while gasoline stockpiles decreased less than forecast.
Crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with
expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.
 Hawk Energy Sees Oil at $85-$100 This Year With Strong Demand Growth
 That’s a ‘ foreseeable & sensible range,’ Hawk Energy CEO M. Al Shihabi says
 Demand set to grow to 104 MBD up by 2.0 MBD, in 2024: Al Awadhi says

As shale oil gains slow, deepwater port struggles for customers
Reuters
As U.S. shale oil boomed last decade, an oil pipeline company pitched an ambitious multi-billion-
dollar export port off the Texas coast to ship domestic crude to buyers in Europe and Asia.
In April, Enterprise Products Partners' SPOT became the first project to receive a license from the
U.S. maritime regulator for a deepwater port that could load two supertankers, each of which can
carry up to 2 million barrels of oil at a time.
But multi-year regulatory delays, a loss of commercial backers and slowing U.S. shale production
has left SPOT, or Sea Port Oil Terminal, and its three rival projects without any secured customers,
energy industry executives say.
"There are a lot of gray areas right now with export projects," said Zack Van Everen, an oil analyst
at energy investment banker Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. Enterprise declined to make an executive
available for an interview, but said it continues to develop the project.
Shale producers and traders rely on ports to get their oil to market and are balking at the higher-
than-expected loading fees for new projects even if they are able to fully load supertankers,
executives said.
HIGHER COSTS
SPOT, proposed for a point 30 miles off the Gulf coast in 2019, is the only Texas deepwater project
with its government approvals. But its cost has soared to about $3 billion, two industry experts said,
from an original estimate of $1.85 billion for Enterprise.
It has no long-term customer contracts, or joint venture partners, stalling a financial green light from
the company, sources said. The project, if approved, is currently expected to start up in 2027.

A customer willing to commit the largest volume is being offered a $1 per barrel rate by Enterprise
to load at SPOT oil transferred from its Houston storage terminal, three people familiar the terms
said. Clients with smaller loads have been offered an about $1.20 a barrel fee.
That compares with the all-in cost of about 75 cents per barrel to load in Corpus Christi, Texas, the
top U.S. oil export port, a source familiar with export operations said. To sweeten the deal,
Enterprise is offering preferential terms for loading schedules, and may bundle some of its other
services to make the price more competitive, two of the people said.
Enterprise disputed the fees, but declined to provide the project's cost and the per barrel terms.
A deepwater port allows customers to load oil directly onto a supertanker, eliminating the additional
cost of loading the oil on smaller ships at shallower ports and then transferring the crude from the
smaller vessels to larger ones.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –April 25-2024
CLEAN ENERGY
Transition to EVs may not be ‘consistent', IEA says as sales slow
IEA + The National + NewBase
The International Energy Agency expects global electric car sales to grow at a slower pace this
year, while maintaining that the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) may not be consistent and will
hinge on affordability.
Electric car sales are projected to increase by about 21 per cent to 17 million this year, down from
the 35 per cent expansion recorded in 2023, the Paris-based agency said in its annual Global EV
Outlook on Tuesday.
“The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some
markets than others,” said Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director.
“Rather than tapering off, the global EV
revolution appears to be gearing up for a new
phase of growth. The wave of investment in
battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply
chain is advancing to meet automakers’
ambitious plans for expansion,” Mr Birol said.
The IEA said that in the first quarter of this year
electric car sales surged by about 25 per cent,
similar to the growth rate seen in the same
period in 2023.
The report comes as car manufacturers and
suppliers grapple with a global downturn that
has resulted in bankruptcies, cancelled initial
public offerings, and reduced production.
The rapid investment in production capacity and
technological advancements has surpassed the
current demand for electric vehicles, prompting
the need for companies to reduce expenses.
This month, Tesla said it planned to reduce its
global workforce by more than 10 per cent amid
declining sales and increased competition in the
electric vehicle market.
The Texas-based company lost its crown as the
world’s largest EV seller to China's BYD in the fourth quarter of 2023, despite reporting record
quarterly sales. The Geometry C is an electrified compact crossover hatchback from the Chinese
car brand Geely. All photos: Gautam Sharma for The National
The IEA expects electric car sales in China to leap to about 10 million this year, accounting for about
45 per cent of all car sales in the country. In the US, roughly one in nine cars sold are projected to
be electric, while in Europe, despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales, electric cars
are still on track to represent about one in four cars sold, the agency added.

Increased investment in EV infrastructure, continued policy backing, and dropping car and battery
prices will drive major shifts in the future, the IEA said. Under current policies, half of global car
sales are projected to be electric by 2035, the report said.
However, if nations fulfil their energy and climate commitments, two thirds of car sales could be
electric by the same year. This shift would spare up to 12 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent
to the current road transport demand in China and Europe combined, it added.
“Manufacturers have taken major steps to deliver on the strengthening EV ambitions of
governments, including by making significant financial commitments,” the IEA said.
“Thanks to high levels of investment over the past five years, the world’s capacity to produce
batteries for EVs is well positioned to keep up with demand, even as it rises sharply over the next
decade,” the agency added.
In China, more than 60 per cent of electric cars sold in 2023 were already less expensive to buy
than conventional vehicles. However, in Europe and the US, internal combustion engine cars still
held a price advantage, the report said.
Growth in EV sales remains robust as major markets progress and emerging economies ramp up
Electric car sales keep rising and could reach around 17 million in 2024, accounting for more
than one in five cars sold worldwide. Electric cars continue to make progress towards becoming
a mass-market product in a larger number of countries. Tight margins, volatile battery metal prices,
high inflation, and the phase-out of purchase incentives in some countries have sparked concerns
about the industry’s pace of growth, but global sales data remain strong.
In the first quarter of 2024, electric car sales grew by around 25% compared with the first quarter of
2023, similar to the year-on-year growth seen in the same period in 2022. In 2024, the market share
of electric cars could reach up to 45% in China, 25% in Europe and over 11% in the United States,
underpinned by competition among manufacturers, falling battery and car prices, and ongoing policy
support.

The pace of the transition to electric vehicles hinges on their affordability
Electric cars are getting cheaper as competition intensifies, particularly in China, but they remain
more expensive than cars with internal combustion engines in other markets. A rapid transition to
EVs will require bringing to market more affordable models.
In China, we estimate that more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper than
their average combustion engine equivalent. However, electric cars remain 10% to 50% more
expensive than combustion engine equivalents in Europe and the United States, depending on the
country and car segment.
In 2023, two-thirds of available electric models globally were large cars, pick-up trucks or sports
utility vehicles, pushing up average prices. When exactly price parity is reached is subject to a range
of market variables, but current trends suggest that it could be reached by 2030 in major EV markets
outside China for most models.
The pricing strategies of car manufacturers will be crucial for improving affordability, as will the pace
of EV battery price decline. Turmoil in battery metal markets in 2022 led to the first price increase
for lithium-ion packs, which became 7% more expensive than in 2021.
In 2023, however, the prices of the key metals used to make batteries dropped, leading to a near-
14% fall in pack prices year-on-year. China still supplies the cheapest batteries, but prices across
regions are converging as batteries become a globalised commodity.
Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries – which are significantly cheaper than those based on lithium,
nickel, manganese and cobalt oxide – accounted for over 40% of global EV sales by capacity in
2023, more than double their share in 2020.
Looking ahead, technological innovation will remain important for scaling up novel designs and
chemistries such as sodium-ion batteries, which could cost as much as 20% less than lithium-based
batteries without requiring any lithium.

Nearly one in five cars sold in 2023 was electric
Electric car sales neared 14 million in 2023, 95% of which were in China, Europe and the
United States. Almost 14 million new electric cars1 were registered globally in 2023, bringing their
total number on the roads to 40 million, closely tracking the sales forecast from the 2023 edition of
the Global EV Outlook (GEVO-2023).
Electric car sales in 2023 were 3.5 million higher than in 2022, a 35% year-on-year increase. This
is more than six times higher than in 2018, just 5 years earlier. In 2023, there were over 250 000
new registrations per week, which is more than the annual total in 2013, ten years earlier.
Electric cars accounted for around 18% of all cars sold in 2023, up from 14% in 2022 and only 2%
5 years earlier, in 2018. These trends indicate that growth remains robust as electric car markets
mature. Battery electric cars accounted for 70% of the electric car stock in 2023.
The global electric vehicle fleet is set to grow twelve-fold by 2035 under stated policies
In the STEPS, the stock of EVs across all modes except for two/three-wheelers (2/3Ws),1 grows
from less than 45 million in 2023 to 250 million in 2030 and reaches 525 million in 2035. As a result,
in 2035, more than one in four vehicles on the road is electric. On average, the EV stock grows by
23% annually from 2023 to 2035.
In the APS, the stock of EVs (excluding 2/3Ws) reaches 585 million in 2035, over 10% higher than
in the STEPS, and 30% of the vehicle fleet (excluding 2/3Ws) is electric. Compared to the STEPS,
the average annual growth in the EV fleet is only slightly higher, with an average 24% growth
between 2023 and 2035. In the NZE Scenario, the fleet of EVs grows even more quickly, at an
average annual rate of 27% to 2035, reaching 790 million (excluding 2/3Ws).

In the STEPS, EV sales (excluding 2/3Ws) reach almost 45 million in 2030 and close to 65 million
in 2035, up from around 14 million in 2023. The sales share of EVs grows from around 15% in 2023
to almost 40% in 2030 and over 50% in 2035 in the STEPS.
In the APS, the sales shares are higher, approaching 45% in 2030 and two-thirds in 2035. In the
NZE Scenario, EV sales shares accelerate over the next few years, reaching about 65% in 2030
and 95% in 2035.

NewBase Energy News 25- April - Issue No. 1719 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

NewBase 25 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1719 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to NewBase 25 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1719 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf

Similar to NewBase 25 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1719 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf (20)

More from Khaled Al Awadi

More from Khaled Al Awadi (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

NewBase 25 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1719 by Khaled Al Awadi_compressed.pdf