Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions | Belarus Conference in Stockholm

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Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics

Presented by Dzimtry Kruk during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.

Economy & Finance

Physical volume of exports: sharp reduction, rapid
recovery, stagnation
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Exports, physical volume, seasonally adjusted, 2018=100
Oil "war" with
Russia
COVID
impact
Post-COVID foreign
trade miracle
Improved access to
Ukrainian oil market
Sanctions
effects
Positive
(compensatory)
effects

The share of exports to Russia increased considerably
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
The share of exports to Russia (physical volume), %

Physical volume of potash fertilizers exports:
supply bottleneck due to logistic obstacles
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (e) 2022 (e) 2023 (e)
Exports of potash fertilizers, thousand tones, gross volume

Potash fertilizers exports: weakening market power and
inability to charge market price
Commercial mistakes +
minor effects of
sanctions
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (e) 2022 (e) 2023 (e)
Actual price of Belarusian potash fertilizers exports/ global price, %
The effects of
sanctions

Macro landscape: V-shaped recession and output losses
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2020
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
2021
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
Q4
2022
Q1
2023
Q2
2023
Q3
2023
Q4
2023
Q1
2024
(e)
GDP: Actual vs. Counterfactual (2018=100)
Counterfactual: no war and sanctions Actual

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Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions | Belarus Conference in Stockholm

1. Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions

2. Physical volume of exports: sharp reduction, rapid recovery, stagnation 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Exports, physical volume, seasonally adjusted, 2018=100 Oil "war" with Russia COVID impact Post-COVID foreign trade miracle Improved access to Ukrainian oil market Sanctions effects Positive (compensatory) effects

3. The share of exports to Russia increased considerably 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 The share of exports to Russia (physical volume), %

4. Physical volume of potash fertilizers exports: supply bottleneck due to logistic obstacles 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (e) 2022 (e) 2023 (e) Exports of potash fertilizers, thousand tones, gross volume

5. Potash fertilizers exports: weakening market power and inability to charge market price Commercial mistakes + minor effects of sanctions 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (e) 2022 (e) 2023 (e) Actual price of Belarusian potash fertilizers exports/ global price, % The effects of sanctions

6. Macro landscape: V-shaped recession and output losses 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 (e) GDP: Actual vs. Counterfactual (2018=100) Counterfactual: no war and sanctions Actual

Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions | Belarus Conference in Stockholm

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