Lies, Damn Lies and Social Statistics
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Why raw data can tell the wrong story and why that matters
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Lies, Damn Lies and Social Statistics
- 1. #OgilvySMW KARIN ROBINSON Lies, Damn Lies and Social Statistics: Why Raw Data Can Tell the Wrong Story and Why that Matters
- 2. #OgilvySMW
- 3. #OgilvySMW
- 4. #OgilvySMW
- 5. #OgilvySMW Rembrandt, Self Portrait at Age 63, 1669 © The National Gallery, London David Wilkie, Young Woman Kneeling at a Prayer Desk, 1813 © The National Gallery, London
- 6. #OgilvySMW We have to admit that there are major flaws in some of the most common measures agencies and clients use for social insight.
- 7. #OgilvySMW DEMOGRAPHICS Age, gender and location
- 8. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW HOW DOES TWITTER KNOW SO MUCH ABOUT YOU? It guesses.
- 9. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW HOW GOOD IS THE ALGORITHM? Not great.
- 11. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW ARE THERE REALLY NO 12 YEAR OLDS ON FACEBOOK? Did you know only .45% of Twitter users disclose their age?
- 13. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW WHAT DOES IT EVEN MEAN? Can all posts really be considered positive or negative? Is the sentiment really about your client’s brand? How can you account for sarcasm, slang and context?
- 14. #OgilvySMW “Before having children I only knew of Aptamil and SMA from TV advertising and hated Aptamil's adverts and their claim of being closest to breast milk.”
- 15. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW THERE IS A BETTER WAY
- 16. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW THERE IS A BETTER WAY
- 18. #OgilvySMW
- 19. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW TWITTER ACTIVITY ≠ REAL WORLD POPULARITY
- 20. #OgilvySMW#OgilvySMW DARK SOCIAL IS DOMINANT Nearly 2/3 of all social referrals come an unidentifiable source
- 22. #OgilvySMW SO WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
- 23. #OgilvySMW BE SCEPTICAL, AND CONSIDER THE CONTEXT
- 24. #OgilvySMW LOOK AT BEHAVIOUR, NOT JUST DEMOGRAPHICS
- 26. #OgilvySMW
Editor's Notes
- Introduction – I have been involved in social media since way back when it only existed in the form or Usenet newsgroups. And I’ve been running digital campaigns and strategies for almost as long as that. Another way of saying that is that I started my career explaining to people why they needed to build a website, then I spent some time explaining why they should be on Facebook. And these days I try to help people understand why being on Facebook is not enough… Team of analysts at OgilvyOne, Consumer Engagement, Social Insight…
- Here’s what happened when a group of scientists tried to use twitter data to predict UK election results based on factors such as th eincrease in total mentions of a party, or an uptick in negative mentions for a cnadidates. I don’t want to be too hard on them, because actually their model didn’t perform much worse than the standard polls in the last election, which were terrible. But look at what happens at the end of the campaign! Just as some polls were starting to pick up an improvement in Tory performance, they found an uptick in favour of Labout. Spoiler alert – that’s not what wsa really happening!
- Are dark social posts different than public ones. Absolutely, they are. This is where people go to have conversations about things they feel too uncomfortable to share more widely. It’s where people we truly know personally and whose opinion we most trust will share with us. Advocacy on dark social is far more likely to have influence, and complaints will sting all the more. Especially because you won’t even know they’re happening – until it’s too late. Let me share a cautionary tale… Our daughter’s nursery….
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