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Nudgestock 2020 – Necessity is the Mother of Reinvention

Every year, Ogilvy Consulting's Behavioural Science Practice hosts Nudgestock — the world’s largest festival of creativity and behavioural science. Ordinarily, this event is held on the British Seaside (a cunning strategy to help people focus on the day) with approximately 400 in attendance. However this year, as a result of Covid-19, we tried something different...and the results were astonishing.

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Nudgestock 2020 – Necessity is the Mother of Reinvention

  1. 1. Powered by What’s Next: Nudgestock 2019 In 60 minutes
  2. 2. Welcome Dayoán Daumont Consulting Partner Ogilvy Consulting Jordan Buck Consultant Ogilvy Consulting Jack Duddy Consultant Ogilvy Consulting Chloe Hutchings Hay Analyst Ogilvy Consulting
  3. 3. Tell us where you are dialing in from! What’s the weather like in your city?
  4. 4. Do you want this deck? It will be available for download shortly after the webinar on: And the recording up on
  5. 5. …in 60 minutes
  6. 6. Folkestone
  7. 7. Highlights
  8. 8. Tricia WangWill Page Gerd GigerenzerCandice HoganRobert FrankStefanie Johnson Jack JordanJackJordanChloe Chloe
  9. 9. Will Page Remixing Spotify’s Experience at Scale Jack Duddy Milena Bursztyn
  10. 10. Remixing Spotify’s Experience at scale
  11. 11. Chief Economist of Spotify … … meets Chicago Booths finest.
  12. 12. Why Spotify experiments?
  13. 13. if you had 40m unique users ‘opting into’ a randomised trial every Monday - what would you test?
  14. 14. people use visual heuristics for wayfinding
  15. 15. Endowment Effect: ‘Your’ Daily Mix
  16. 16. Visual Attention: Artist Image - Mosaic Image
  17. 17. Image cover lifts Daily Mix adoption
  18. 18. The ABC’s to Breaking Bias Chloe Hutchings-Hay Dr. Stephanie Johnson
  19. 19. The Rockstar was unhappy with the amount of alcohol at the party.
  20. 20. The nun was unhappy with the amount of alcohol at the party.
  21. 21. Female and minority leaders who “Respect differences, value working with different types of people & are comfortable managing diverse employees” are seen as less competent and effective
  22. 22. The Case For Diversity • Identifying the top talent • Diversity increases employee satisfaction • Diversity fosters innovation and creativity • Strengthening affinity to customers • Increased financial performance Source: Diversity Matters, McKinsey (2015)
  23. 23. Admit it
  24. 24. Block it
  25. 25. Count it
  26. 26. Support it
  27. 27. Robert Frank The Mother Of All Cognitive Illusions Jordan Buck
  28. 28. July 28, 2020 Robert H. Frank Author and Professor of Economics at Cornell University Nudgestock & The Night Before Nudgestock 36
  29. 29. July 28, 2020 37
  30. 30. July 28, 2020 38
  31. 31. July 28, 2020 1. We are heavily swayed by social context and influence 2. This can lead to expenditure cascades 3. But social contagion can be used for good! 39
  32. 32. The strongest predictor of whether people will smoke is the proportion of their peers who smoke. Ali, M.M. & Dwyer, D.S. (2009)
  33. 33. Expenditure Cascades We assess wealth in relative terms, not in absolute terms. Relative social standing is everything!
  34. 34. The median new house in the US is now 50 percent larger than in 1980
  35. 35. 1980: $11,000 2018: $36,000 Average American Wedding Expense (in 2010 dollars)
  36. 36. “Shifting frames of reference caused by rising inequality have spawned larger houses, heavier vehicles, and many other forms of wasteful energy consumption. But behavioural contagion can also be enlisted to solve other challenges and reduce energy consumption!” “Social contagion”
  37. 37. July 28, 2020 1. We are heavily swayed by social context and influence 2. This can lead to expenditure cascades 3. But social contagion can be used for good! 45
  38. 38. Uber Labs Jack Duddy Candice Hogan
  39. 39. 47 Behavioural science at scaleCandice Hogan
  40. 40. July 28, 2020 48 Ambiguity Aversion Identifiable Victim Effect
  41. 41. 49 Behavioural Science & Uber – Baked into the design and experience – Choose where they focus for the most ‘high impact’ opportunities – Teach and guide internally – Roll out their interventions at scale – Can’t improve your Uber rating.
  42. 42. 50 The Uber Pool challenge:Waiting is a new experience for users who are used to immediate match. How can we better convey waiting to users? To highlight progress during waiting, break the batching process into granular steps and show updates ● Idleness Aversion [Hsee, Yang, & Wang, 2010] ● Operational Transparency [Buell & Norton, 2011] ● Goal Gradient Effect [Kivetz et al, 2006] 11%decrease in cancellation rate
  43. 43. 51 The Uber Rewards program: The Uber Rewards program provides benefits for different levels of engagement In order to understand the health of this program, it’s important to measure how customers progress and regress through reward tiers Insight: ● Adapted Goal Distance Model (Kivetz, Urminsky, & Zheng, 2006) to quantify progress toward program milestones ● Using behavioural science and machine learning
  44. 44. 52 Lessons for Organisations: Be brought in at the earliest stages Create guidelines and tools to educate and enable the wider organisation
  45. 45. 53
  46. 46. Tricia Wang The End of an Error: Reclaiming Marketing from Ad Tech Chloe Hutchings-Hay
  47. 47. • Global tech ethnographer • TED superstar Who is Tricia Wang?
  48. 48. Quantification Bias the unconscious belief of valuing the measurable over the immeasurable
  49. 49. Old-school Marketing New-school Marketing
  50. 50. Shift 1 Deep customer insights aren’t valued.
  51. 51. Shift 2 Creative and ad tech have become enemies, sitting on different sides of the argument.
  52. 52. 1.7 billion people Block ads
  53. 53. What’s the solution?
  54. 54. THICK DATA The most direct, unmediated data from humans that captures the full context of their emotions and stories
  55. 55. THICK DATA 1. Let’s you see the world like an alien. 2. Rescues context loss from big data
  56. 56. “You can’t input tears and smiles into a spreadsheet”
  57. 57. “All big data comes the from the same place, the past.” Rory Sutherland
  59. 59. Ogilvy Learnings 1. Value the position we have as Ogilvy. 2. Go deeper to understand customers more: • Conduct Qual research • Get into the customers world • Understand the psychology of the context in which consumers make decisions
  60. 60. Gerd Gigerenzer Less is More: Decision Making under Uncertainty Jordan Buck
  61. 61. Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin Gerd Gigerenzer
  63. 63. RISK knowledge of future states; what could happen and roughly how likely it is UNCERTAINTY unsure knowledge; possible outcomes and their likelihood
  64. 64. WHAT IS A HEURISTIC ? A heuristic is a useful method to solve a problem… …with the minimum effort and calculation Rule of thumb ? Intuitive judgement ? Guesstimate ? Fast & frugal ?
  65. 65. HIATUS HEURISTIC If a customer has not purchased within a certain number of months (the hiatus), the customer is classified as inactive; otherwise, the customer is classified as active. vs.
  66. 66. What to watch out for… • When are you risky, when are you uncertain? • Faster AND more accurate?
  67. 67. What to take home • If in doubt, simplify • Test out your rules of thumb!
  68. 68. O Behave Podcast Nudgestock Special
  69. 69. Thank You See you next year
  70. 70. Questions?
  71. 71. Thank you.