Institute for the Future (IFTF) Reconfiguring Reality Workshop, Palo Alto, CA Apache Opehnw OpenWhisk Linux Foundation Hyperledger Blockchain Artificial Intelligence Leaderboards
4. Leaderboards Framework
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
10/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4
Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
6. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
610/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080204020001960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
206020201980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
7. GPD/Employee
10/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7
(Source)
Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations
Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
8. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes.
• Augmented Reality (AR)/
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Game worlds
grow-up
• Blockchain/
Security Systems
• Trust and security
immutable
• Advanced Materials/
Energy Systems
• Manufacturing as cheap,
local recycling service
(utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.)
10/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 8
Editor's Notes
Please feel free to share and cite:
Spohrer, JC (2017) OpenWhisk, Hyperledger, AI Leaderboards Presentation draft October 10, 2017 IFTF Reconfiguring Reality. https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/iftf-reconfiguring-reality-20171001-v3
Thanks to IBM colleagues, and IBM visitors including Daniel Pakkala (VTT Finland)– see http://service-science.info/archives/4741
Thanks to “OECD 2016 – One year later group” as well: Elliot Stuart, Ken Forbus, Moshe Vardi, Frank Levy, Vijay Saraswat, Michael Witbrock, Alistair Nolan, Art Graesser, Charles Fadel, Ernest Davis, Jill Burstein, Michael Handel, Jerry Hobbs, Rebecca Passonneau, Mark Steedman
1950 Nathaniel Rochester (IBM) 701 first commercial computer that did super-human levels of numeric calculations routinely. He worked at MIT on arithmetic unit of WhirlWind I programmable computer.
Dota 2 is most recent August 11, 2017 as a super-human game player in Valve Dota 2 competition – Elon Musk’s OpenAI result.
Miles Bundage tracks gaming progress: http://www.milesbrundage.com/blog-posts/my-ai-forecasts-past-present-and-future-main-post
DOTA2: https://blog.openai.com/more-on-dota-2/
What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24)
Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years….
Daniel Pakkala (VTT)
URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/
Dan Gruhl:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826
In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.
That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.
or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983
Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
The nature of reality changes when there is more than one intelligent species, and we are not the smartest.
The nature of reality also changes when the cost of exploring alternate experience pathways are made less risky – the notions of time and identity changes as a result.
Mitigate risks and harvest benefits of existence, by learning to evermore efficiently and rapidly rebuild from scratch to higher states of value and capability of entities.
The evolving ecology of service system entities their value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms, as well as their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities at each stage in time. Human progress as well as the development of individuals, and the arc of institutions can be viewed in this way. Entities exist as individuals and populations. Generations of entities, generations of species (populations), generations of individuals (cohorts).