Briefing on the technology, political and economic drivers influencing the unmanned undersea and surface vehicle markets

1. Preparing for the Future Of:
Unmanned Undersea / Surface Vehicles
Technology Scouting
Technology Assessments
Technology Forecasting
Environmental Scanning
Technical Expert Networks
Technical Competitive Intelligence
Steven M. Shaker
AUVSI 2013
1

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A Little About Me: Steve Shaker
Technologist and Futurist
Former Senior Executive with US Govt.
Former Executive in Market Research firm
Expert on Competitive Intelligence and International
Market Research
Worked on USN UUV Master Plan
Served on DARPA and Intel. Community Study Panels
Program Manager on USMC Unmanned Ground Vehicles
Concepts of Employment
Study Leader on Foreign UUV USV Technology Transfer
Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems, Member of the
Year 1990
Author and Speaker
– War Without Men: Robots on the Future Battlefield,
Pergamon-Brasseys
– Unmanned Vehicle Systems: Military and Civil For The
21st Century or Beyond
– The WarRoom Guide to Competitive Intelligence
– Over 200 Articles on Unmanned Systems, Robotics,
Advanced Technology and the Future
Unmanned Systems
The Futurist
2

3. Why Position For Future?
• For Government: Long
lead times for
acquisition. Need to
anticipate threat, and
forecast technology to
make sure investments
are good ones.
• For Industry: To
outcompete competitors,
and to better adapt to
market changes.
3

4. Futurist Fun-damentals
• To Be Good Futurist Must Be
Good Historian
– Forecasting involves taking past &
current trends and projecting
forward.
• History is Not Enough, Must
Be Able to Anticipate
Departures From Past.
• Can’t Truly Predict Future
– Can Develop Alternative Scenarios
– Can Develop Indicators to Monitor
Movement Going Down a Particular
Pathway. Provides Early Warning
Mechanism and Foster Adaptation.
– CAN INFLUENCE AND SHAPE THE
FUTURE
4

5. Unmanned Maritime Vehicles Taxonomy
Robots
Stationary Robots:
Factory Robots
Unmanned Space
Vehicles
The Robot Kingdom
Mobile Robots
Unmanned Ground Unmanned Air
Vehicles
Vehicles
Unmanned
Maritime Vehicles
5

6. Unmanned Maritime Vehicles Taxonomy
Unmanned Maritime Vehicle (UMV)
Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (UUV)
Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV)
Remotely Operated
Surface Vehicles (ROSV)
Towed
(Gliders)
Autonomous Surface
Vehicle (ASV)
Autonomous Undersea
Vehicle (AUV)
Remotely Operated
Vehicles (ROV)
Teleoperated
The Development of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV);
A Brief Summary
D. Richard Blidberg, (blidberg@ausi,org)
Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute, Lee New Hampshire, USA
http://ausi.org/publications/ICRA_01paper.pdf
Hybrid ROV
(tethered of free swimming)
6

7. Smart Dumb Robot / Autonomy Continuum
Dumb Robot
Smart Robot
Remote Control
Telerobotics
Teleoperated
ROV
Semi Autonomous
Supervisory Controlled
Autonomous
Telepresence
AUV
ASV
7

8. Mobile Robotics / Unmanned Systems Basics –
Key Subsystems
Locomotion: How the Robot Moves
through its environment
Sensing: How the robot measures
properties of itself and its
environment
Control: How the robot generates
physical actions
Reasoning: How the robot maps
measurements into actions
Communication: How the robot
communicates with each other or
an outside operator
http://www.docslide.com/mobot-mobilerobot/#
8

9. Why I Like UMVs: Mature Healthy 2 Way Street
Between Military and Commercial Sectors
UUV Market Segmentation
25 %
Scientific
Research
25 %
50 %
Oil and Gas
Defense and Security
Mainly ROVs when factor in just AUVs
Commercial is 11 % of market but 20 %
of compound annual growth rate.
• Contrast to UAV and UGV
where military far
outpaces civil applications
and funding.
• UUV has robust
commercial market. UAV
and UGV focusing on
enlarging civil, smaller
commercial market.
• May change with
driverless cars and other
new developments.
9

10. Budgets and Funding
$4 B
High Scenario
$ 3.8 B
1,870 AUVs
Duke interviews with Industry
Analysts considered this 30 %
Compound annual growth rate
To be optimistic
$3 B
887 ROVs
210 light
667 medium & heavy
1.3 M ROV days
847 ROVs per year
43 %
930 AUVs
$2 B
$ 1.7 B
Work Class ROVs
$ 1.2 B
ROVs & AUVs
$ 1.52 B
ROVs & AUVs
$1 B
$891 M
Work Class ROVs
$850 M ROVs
$ 200 M AUVs
2007
2008
2009
2010 2011
Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) and
Autonomous Underwater (AUV) in the
Energy Market 2012-2022
$ 920 M for USVs
40 % of UUV Market
641 Work ROVs
21 companies
560 AUVs
$ 260 for USVs M2 5 % of UUV market
2012 2013 2014 2015
The World AUV Market
Report 2010-2019
Most Likely Scenario
$ 2.3 B
$ 1.1 B for military
1144 AUVs
394 large
285 medium
463 small
2016 2017 2018
Remotely Operated Vehicles
(ROV) Market Report to 2015
Frost Sullivan Unmanned Systems
Management Briefing
2019
2020
Study on Ocean Technologies including
ROVs and AUVs Tech Trends
Unmanned Maritime Systems –
UUV & USV 2012 – 2020
10

11. UMV (UUV + USV) = $ 1,150 M
UUV
S 1,050 M
2010
ROV
S 850 M
USV
$ 100 M
Military
S 50 M
Commercial
(Oil & Gas)
S 25 M
Scientific
S 25 M
UMV Forecasted Growth
Oil & Gas
$ 425 M
59 %
Defense
& Security
$ 212.5 M
25 %
Scientific
$ 212.5 M
25 %
Market Drivers
Growing market for mini
and small ROVs
Due to reduced cost and
greater functionality
Increasing number of
sensors and robotics /
manipulators Being placed
on vehicles
2015
ROV
$ 1.7 B
Military
$ 100 M
50 %
Hybrid ROVs (HROVs)
AUV
$ 2.3 B
Reduction in cost of
platform relative to
cost of instruments
AUV
S 200 M
2019
AUVs becoming more cost
beneficial than ROVs
Increased functionality of AUVs
Scientific
$ 50 M
25 %
Commercial
$ 50 M
25 %
Increase in demand for
floating oil production
Systems
37.5%
Military
$805 M
37.5%
Scientific
$805 M
Current AUV inventory growing
obsolete
25%
Commercial
$575 M
2020
2012
$ 250 M
USV technology is maturing rapidly, and a number of USVs are marketready. USVs will have a quicker adoption than UUVs
USV
$ 920 M
11

12. Technology Forecasting “Backcasting Methodology”
Technology Sequence Analysis
• Enables determination of current state of-the-art technologies as well as
derivative developments and diffusion of technology that has come out of
the futurist arena.
• Developed in the early 1980s by the Futures Group to analyze hypothetical
future Soviet Weapon Systems.
• TSA is a method that involves the statistical combination of estimates of
the time required to accomplish technological steps. In general, TSA views
the future as a series of interlocking, causal steps or decisions, or nodes,
leading to some future state. The time between nodes is presented with
probabilities. With these estimates, the time of availability of the endtarget system can be computed in terms of its probability versus time.
• Can adapt this approach to understand current and projected state-of-the
art, and to determine technology wild cards and game changer
technology.
12

13. Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) Methodology
• These techniques rely on analyzing component technologies through the use of Boolean
operators, in order to assess if and when a product might come to market. The technique
can also be used to identify and acquire key missing technologies in order to block a
competitor.
• Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) is a method that involves the statistical combination
of estimates of the time required to accomplish technological steps
• Similar to PERT but can better handle alterative technologies.
.
13

14. ROV Subsystem and Key Technologies
ROV
List all of the major subsystems that comprise the AUV
14

15. ROV Subsystem and Key Technologies TSA
ROV
AND
Primary
Sub Systems
1.2
Mechanical
Systems 1.1
AND
Propulsion &
Thrust 1.1.3
Syntactic
Foam
1.1.2.2
CCD
1.2.2.1
digital
Still
Camera
1.2.2.2
Fluorescent
1.1.3.2.2
Polyurethane
1.1.2.1.2
Radiation
1.2.3.1
ultrasonic
Gauges
1.2.3.5
AND
Propulsion
1.1.3.1
AND
Electrical
1.1.3.1.1
Hydraulic
1.1.3.1.2
CTD
1.2.3.2
Control
Systems 1.4
Depth
Transducers
1.3.3.3
Mag Flux
Gate
Compass
1.2.3.4
Ducted Jet
1.1.3.1.3
Robert Christ and Robert Wernli, ROV Manual
Power
Source
1.1.3.2.1
Electric
motor
1.1.3.2.2
Motor
Controller
1.1.3.2.3
Motor
Control
Electronics
1.4.2
Control
Station
1.4.1
OR
Large
Container
1.4.1.1
Umbilical
1.3.1.1
Joystick
Head
Mounted
display
1.4.1.2
TMS
1.3.1.2
Grabber
Arm
1.2..4.3
AND
AND
Current
1.3.2.1
Thruster
Housing
1.1.3.2.4
Power
Source
1.3.2
Electric
Motor
1.2.4.1
Worm
Gear
1.2..4.2
Thruster
1.1.3.2
OR
Tether
1.3.1
AND
AND/OR
imaging
Sonar
1.2.3.6
LED
1.1.3.2.4
Manipulators
and Tools
1.2.4
Sensors
1.2.3
Cameras
1.2.2
OR
Hi Intensity
Discharge
1.1.3.234
OR
Polyisocyan
-urate
1.1.2.1.1
Lighting
1.2.1
Incandes
cent
1.2.1.1
OR
Rigid
Polyurethane
1.1.2.1
Electrical
Systems 1.3
AND
Buoyancy
/
Flotation
Foam
1.1.2
Frame
1.1.1
1.0
Gesringing
Mechanism
1.1.3.251
Data
1.3.2.2
Driver
Shafts
1.1.3.2.6
Inductors
1.4.2.1
Propeller
1.1.3.2.7
H-Bridge
1.4.2.2
Kort
Stators
1.1.3.2.8
15

16. Benefits of Technology Sequence Analysis
• For Government:
– Similar to PERT but can better handle alterative technologies,
thus provides more effective roadmap for our own systems
development.
– Ideal mechanism to examine foreign or adversary unmanned
developments, and to control technology transfer mechanisms.
– Serves as early warning mechanism that adversary is going
down specific pathway.
• For Industry:
– Excellent mechanism for examining options for own systems
development, and to compare and contrast with competitors
systems.
– Useful early warning mechanism to monitor and track
competitor’s programs and technical approach.
16

17. History of Unmanned Surface and Unmanned
Undersea Vehicles
Technology Diffusion
Manned Submersibles
Submarines
Torpedoes
Boats/Ships
UMV=UUV + USV
Robotics – Mobile Robotics
Other Unmanned Systems
Unmanned Air Vehicles
Unmanned Ground Vehicles
Unmanned Spacecraft
Planetary Rovers
17

18. UMV Concepts of Employment:
Often Re-Invented
Luppis-Whitehead 1864 –
Programmed Underwater Vehicle (PUV)
Al-Jazari Robot Boat 1206 AD
13th Century: Roger Bacon
and Unmanned War Vessel
British Electrically
Controlled Boat 1885
Nikola Tesla’s Remote Controlled
Boat (Telautomaton) 1893-1898
Leonardo Torres-Quevedo – Telekine 1905
US Target
Vessels 1922
WW 2 Radio Controlled
Explosive Laden Boats
British Brennan and German
Siemen Harbor Torpedoes
– circa 1884-1886
Fernlenkboote FL-7 Remote
Controlled Boat- 1916
USVs Environmental
Sampling from
A-Bomb Testing 1950s USVs for Mine
Vietnam War USV
Sweeping and Targets
Tethered
1950s Pioneer ROV “Cutlet”
ROV
Developed by Royal Navy
Dimitri
Cable Controlled Underwater
Rebikoff
MOBOT – Hughes Aircraft
Recovery Vehicle (CURV) 1958
- 1953
Co. and Shell 1958
18

19. Current ROVs
• Approximately 641
work related ROVs
currently in usage.
Class
Many more hobby and Inspection WorkLynx –
Saab Seaeye
research ROVs.
• Approximately 35 ROV
manufacturers
Nano ROV
producing 160 systems.
• Commercial ROVs
divided into inspection
work class, medium and
heavy work class.
Tiny ROVS – Videoray Pro 4
Work Class ROVS –
Oceaneering Maxximum
World’s Largest ROV – UT-1 Ultra Trencher
19

20. Current AUVs
• 630 AUVs built
by 40
organizations.
Only ten
companies
have
produced ten
units or more.
• 75 % of
existing AUVs
built between
2001 and
2005
Man Portable AUV – Bluefin 9
Solar Powered (SAUV II)
Remus 100
Large Vehicle AUV
20

21. Current USVs
• One 2010 study
listed 100
different USV
systems.
• A 2011 market
research study
listed
approximately 27
different USVs that
had been
procured, 9 under
development and
another 9 whose
R&D has been
abandoned.
Rafael Protector USV
Catamaran USVs - ROAZ
Remote Multi Mission Vehicle UUV
Lockheed Martin
C-Hunter
Autonomous Surface Vehicles Ltd.
21

22. Upward Progression, Avoiding Tunnel Vision,
Cliffs and Roadblocks
 UUVs and USVs have made steady, incremental progress.
 In commercial realm oil and gas has grown in spite of
economic slow down / recession; and Deep Horizon
fallout.
 In military realm UUVs and USVs have growth has
been much smaller than that achieved by UAVs and
UGV. Dominated by asymmetric land warfare
campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.
 Poised for rapid expansion due to:
 Economy is coming out of slump. More investment in
exploration and deep water search.
 Withdrawal from land conflicts (Iraq, Afghanistan).
Focus on Pacific, Arctic, Persian Gulf conflicts with Naval
focus.
 Potential Cliffs and Roadblocks
 Sequestration and drastic military cuts
 Fall back into world recession
 Major war with Iran?
23

23. Market Drivers and Wildcards / Game Changers
Market Drivers
Trends that are causing the new market to develop and why,
so you understand what is causing the market to change
and new opportunities to develop.
Wild Cards
An unpredictable or unforeseeable factor. The importance of
“wild card” scenarios is not to correctly guess which surprises
will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises
that could occur.
Game Changers
A newly introduced element or factor that changes an
existing situation or activity in a significant way
24

24. Market Drivers
• Defined: Trends that are causing the new market to develop
and why, so you understand what is causing the market to
change and new opportunities to develop.
Business Environment : Developments external
to UMVs that are in the wider business, economic and
Political environment that shape and influence the UMV
Market.
High
UMV Developments: UMV technology and business
Developments that further their acceptance and
Transformative
market penetration.
Disruptive
Shake-out
Shuffle
Low
New Entrants
Impact
25

25. Business Environment UMV Market Drivers:
2012
Monitoring
Aggregations of
Biological Organisms
Arctic Resource
Competition
Monitoring
Oceanographic and
Climatic Phenomena
Rise of the
Pacific Rim
Port Security
Narco
Submarine
Surveillance
Waterborne
IEDs
Adjunct to Sub Force
for ISR Missions in
Littoral
More Oil and Gas
from Deep Water
Growing Appetite
for Seafood
Countering
Piracy
26

26. Impact of Market Drivers on UUV/USV Market
Growing Appetite
for Seafood
Monitoring
Oceanographic and
Climatic Phenomena
Monitoring
Aggregations of
Biological Organisms
Countering
Piracy
Waterborne
IEDs
Arctic Resource
Competition
More Oil and Gas
from Deep Water
High
Rise of the
Pacific Rim
Transformative
Adjunct to Sub Force for
ISR Missions in Littoral
Disruptive
Shake-out
Port Security
Narco
Submarine
Surveillance
Shuffle
New Entrants
Low
Impact
27

27. Wild Cards / Game Changers
• World wide economic recession, China, India
and other growth engine economies decline.
• Dysfunctional US political system resulting in
budget sequester, major defense cuts.
• Major war with Iran.
• New market entrant: Chinese
28

28. Strategy for Future Conflict
• Asymmetric Warfare: Special Forces +
Unmanned Systems + Indigenous Forces
(Regime or Opposition)
– Done in Libya, Yemen, Africa (and if Iran after
initial air attacks - ) Goal to avoid occupation
scenarios.
• Pacific: Cold War type buildup – but with
more unmanned systems
29

29. Technology Drivers
•
Growing market for mini and small ROVs Due to reduced cost and greater
functionality
•
Increasing number of sensors and robotics / manipulators being placed on ROVs.
•
Reduction in cost of ROV platform relative to cost of instruments
•
Growth in Hybrid ROVs - Greater Autonomy – Merger between ROV and AUV
•
AUVs becoming more cost effective for certain missions than ROVs
•
Increased functionality of AUVs
•
Current AUV inventory growing obsolete
•
USVs are becoming market ready with the technology maturing rapidly signaling a
coming sea change in the overall UMV market.
30

30. Networks of Distributed Unmanned Maritime
Vehicles
• Sum of the total
is greater than
just the additive
qualities of each
of the systems.
Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network
UUVs working in Tandem with USVs for MCM
USVs in Support of UUVs
Hybrid ROVs (HROVs)
31

31. Biomimetic –Parallel Evolution
Parallel evolution is the development of a
similar trait in related, but distinct, species
descending from the same ancestor, but from
different clades.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_evolution
As robots and unmanned
systems move into
environmental niches
populated by biological
species then certain
performance characteristics
will benefit by replicating
their configuration and
functioning.
32

32. Biomimetic Examples
Robot Fish
Charlie the Robo Catfish
BioSwimmer
Robot Lamprey
Robot Lobster
Robot Jellyfish
33

33. NASA DEPTHX
Postulated Underwater Robot for Europa
Scientists have discussed sending a robotic probe to Europa. NASA's
Galileo spacecraft, launched by the space shuttle Atlantis in 1989, has
found evidence of water beneath the icy surface of the Jupiter moon.
DEPTHX — short for Deep Phreatic Thermal Explorer. A program designed to
send an intelligent underwater robot to an ocean of liquid water believed to
exist beneath the icy crust of Europa, a moon of Jupiter. Operating alone, with
no instructions from Earth, such a robot would have to explore outward,
mapping as it went, making educated guesses on where to find life, then
testing to see if life is there.
Laboratory testing of VALKYRIE sub-systems in 2010 and 2011 led to revolutionary methods for transferring massive
amounts of power to the vehicle while it travels through the ice cap on its own. Independent onboard navigation and
through-ice obstacle avoidance systems are among the other novel technologies being integrated into the quarterscale vehicle to be field tested in Phase 2.
VALKYRIE will be equipped with an astrobiology sensor suite and will make an autonomous decision to collect a wall
core sample from within the ice column. This will allow for follow-up microbiology assays to confirm the success of
the vehicle's autonomous approach. Furthermore, the cryobot will deploy line sensors in the ice cap to provide a
new method of long-term autonomous glacial monitoring.
Sources
: http://www.chron.com/business/technology/article/Underwater-robot-could-explore-ocean-on-Jupiter1519371.php#photo-1131457
http://www.stoneaerospace.com/
http://www.gahannaschools.org/EventDetails.aspx?eventid=1715
34

34. Technology Wild Cards / Game
Changers
Wild Cards
An unpredictable or unforeseeable factor. The importance of
“wild card” scenarios is not to correctly guess which surprises
will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises
that could occur.
Game Changers
A newly introduced element or factor that changes an
existing situation or activity in a significant way
What are most influential technologies that have the
potential to dramatically alter the UMV market?
35

35. Technological Game Changer: 3 D Printer
Factors:
Since its origins in 1984 when it was called stereolithography, the technology and
applications for 3 D printing has grown rapidly. Additive manufacturing involves repetitive
spraying and printing of materials into a shape or component. This is much more efficient
and less expensive than subtractive manufacturing which involves use of cutting, and drilling
machine tools to whittle down a design or shape from a block of material. 3 D printing is like
a form of teleportation, when an object can be functionally designed or scanned in one
location and then faxed or emailed to another, in which it can be replicated. 3 D printing via
the Internet facilitates mass customization and home-based manufacturing.
The University of Southampton in the UK printed an entire Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV)
(except for the electric motor) and flew it successfully. Micro UAVs, servos for robots have
been printed by other organizations.
Implications:
Can 3 D printing of UUVs and USVs dramatically reduce the cost of manufacturing? Will the
supply chain impacts adversely impact certain manufacturers? Will technology transfer
controls become ineffective?
36

36. Things to Do To:
Enhance Market Positioning and Increase
Competitiveness
37

37. SWOT Analysis
38

38. Existing Clients/
Customer Base
New Customer Base
Adjacent Markets
NOAA
Coast Guard
NATO
Japan
Singapore
Middle East
ROV for US Navy
Existing Products/Core Competencies
NASA
University Subscriptions
AUVs
Multiple AUVs
Oceanographic Data
New Products / Services
39

39. Existing Clients/
Customer Base
New Customer Base
Adjacent Markets – Liquid Robotics Example
US Navy
Coast Guard
University Subscriptions
USVs
NOAA
NASA
BP
Schlumberger
Existing Products/Core Competencies
Oceanographic Data
Oil & Gas Services
New Products / Services
40

40. Bluefin Diversification to Data Provider
& Acquisition of Hawkes ROVs
41

41. Technology Competitive Market
Intelligence
• Identify competitive
advantages through
technological sources.
• New technological
developments
systematically examined
and effects evaluated.
• Technology Scouting
• Technology Assessment
• Technical Strategic
Analysis
42

42. Technology Scouting
What technological trends are
recognizable
•
•
•
•
What technological trends are
recognizable?
Information sources for technology
scouting (specialized press, research
reports from universities and research
establishments, patent databases, think
tanks, conventions, trade fairs,
competitors, etc.)
Classification of technological trends on
the basis of technical and commercial
criteria, "strong" and "weak" signals,
early warning systems, introduction of
suitable structures
Tools to support scouting, e.g. database
tools, mind mapping - and of course the
Internet
Procter & Gamble's CEO Alan G. Lafley is often quoted as saying " Half
the company's ideas must come from the outside. "
43

43. Technology Scouting and Insertion
Mission: Develop innovative and effective processes and mechanism to identify and insert
new technologies to meet corporate requirements within short timeframes.
Technology Scouting:
Technology Insertion:
Ongoing mechanism to monitor and track
new technologies and key organizations that
can address corporate needs, fill gaps, and or
provide new technological opportunities
Develop new mechanisms to leverage, test and
demo technologies that address customer needs
or furnish revolutionary capabilities within very
quick timeframes, beyond traditional acquisition
timelines.
Technology Pull: Organization pulls
technology to address identified needs
Methodology: Voice of the Customer (VOC):
Identification of tech division requirements or
gaps through interviews and surveys.
Technology Push: Organization is pushed
to or alerted to new technologies to take
advantage of.
Methodology: Environmental Scanning/
Horizon Scanning:
Process of acquiring and analyzing events
and trends in the business environment in
which the organization operates or wants
to enter.
Technology Requirements:
Identification of desired
technical attributes,
performance characteristics
and capabilities.
INPUTS Methodologies:
Technology Export Social Networks: Develop a social network
of external experts on specific technology areas, to assess and evaluate
competitive technologies, products, offerings within an anonymous
private network. Outside experts are witting of technical expert
market research firm hosting the technology expert network, but not
of investors or project sponsors. Can conduct questionnaires , surveys,
And collaborative scenario analysis or virtual business technology war
games.
Portfolio of Desired
Technologies and Partners:
Methodology: Technology Benchmark
Assessment: Comparison of Competitive
technologies to address requirements.
INPUTS Methodologies:
Market Research: Using secondary sources of information
and open source intelligence to spot trends, opportunities
and threats.
Social Media Monitoring: Using social media to identify
Emerging technology trends and key influentials in those
Technologies.
Identification of desired
technologies and corporate or
organization partners providing
technologies.
Insertion Mechanisms:
• Partner
• IR&D / investment/investors
• Merger & acquisitions
• reverse engineering
44

44. Technology Environmental Scanning
Each technology area
would have its own scan,
key indicators and specific
metrics
Secondary/Open Source Collection
Online Journals
Corporate Vendor
Websites
Technology
Related Blogs
Social Media
Monitoring
Newspapers
Example Metrics:
•Number of mentions
•Number of followers
•Key influentials
•Duration and endurance
• Source credibility
• Source readership
Association and
Conference Papers
And Whitepapers
Business databases
Scan for key indicators:
• Signals of change
• Discontinuities
• Inflection points
• Disruptive technologies
• Outliers and Wildcards
45

45. Technology Assessment
What technologies will decide on
market success in the future?
•
•
•
Assessing the potential of new
technologies (What can the
technology achieve?): performance
parameters, ABC analysis,
applications, substitution potential
(technologies), synergy potential,
technology comparisons, Delphi
method
Description of technological
development: life cycle analyses, scurves, learning curves, roadmaps
Environment analyses, this means
the involvement of non-technical
influencing factors on the
development of new technologies
(political and social trends)
46

46. Technology Strategic Analysis
How can competitive advantages
through a technological lead be
achieved?
•
•
•
•
Assessing the potential of new
technologies (from the view of the
enterprise: what opportunities and risks
can result from technologies?):
portfolio analyses, substitution potential (products), new markets
Competitive analysis: technological
SWOT analyses, benchmarks, specific
(core) competence analyses
Technological scenarios
Strategic implications: investment
strategy, segmentation strategy,
product development, performance
leadership, synergy strategy,
cooperation strategy
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47. Competitive Technical Intelligence Process
How can a continuous, systematic
technology assessment in a
company be implemented?
•
•
•
Analysis: determining goals that can be
achieved with a Technical Intelligence
Process, deriving demands on the
process, identification of already
ongoing Technical Intelligence activities
and their integration into the process
Design: definition of a preferably
efficient process (trigger, partial
processes, activities, interfaces and
roles) that satisfy the demands as well
as the connection with the innovationand product lifecycle management
process in the business
Implementation: procedure to
introduce the Competitive Technical
Intelligence process, aspects of change
management (piloting, communication,
etc.)
• Primary Research
• Secondary Research
• Social Media Research
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48. Technical Expert Network: Biomimetics Example
Virtualization, in computing, is the creation of a virtual (rather than actual) version of something, such as a hardware platform, operating system, a storage device or
network resources. Virtualization can be viewed as part of an overall trend in enterprise IT that includes automatic computing, a scenario in which the IT environment
will be able to manage itself based on perceived activity, and utility computing, in which computer processing power is seen as a utility that clients can pay for only as
needed. The usual goal of virtualization is to centralize administrative tasks while improving scalability and work loads
Examples of Possible Requirements
• Which firms are leading technology developments in biomimetics?
• Which universities and faculty are leading developments in biomimetics?
• What is the first likely products for biomimetics? > What are the major
drivers and wildcards facing biomimetics?
•What are the likely scenarios facing the biomimetic market over the next two
years?
Examples of technical and
business social networks
where experts are identified
from.
Sampling of Prospective
In-depth Interviewees
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49. CONTACT INFORMATION
Steven M. Shaker
Strategy, Future Assessments & Competitive Intelligence
Email: steve.shaker@cox.net
Cell: 571 274 0574
Unmanned Vehicle University
Dr. (Col. Ret.) Jerry LeMieux, Executive Director /
President
Phone: 855-UXV-UNIV (898-8648)
Fax: 800-521-3292
admissions@uxvuniversity.com
www.uxvuniversity.com
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