Africa Market Update - April 2016

2SEPTEMBER 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
Company
Table of Contents
Company
APRIL 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA
Cover image: www.businessdestinations.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
KENYA 6
NIGERIA 7
TANZANIA 8
UGANDA 10
RWANDA 11
ANGOLA 9

3APRIL 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
Company
386,790,000.0
339,090,000.0
42,000,000.025,300,000.0
5,000,000.0
320,000.0
Capital Invested by Country (USD)
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE JANUARY 2016 - MARCH 2016
Capital Invested by Industry
20,460,000.0
9,130,000.0
4,590,000.0
42.7%Growth/Expansion .... Merger/AcquisiƟon .........................
10.5%Buyout/LBO ............... Private Investment in Public Equity ...
3.9%Share purchase ............ Corporate DivesƟture ........................
2.7% 2.7%Asset DivesƟture .......... Asset AcquisiƟon ................................
6.5%Others ..........................
42.7%
23.1%
10.5%
4.2%
3.9%
3.7%
2.7%
2.7%
6.5%
Capital Invested by Deal Type
Deals Snapshot
• Africa Internet Group (Nigeria) raised USD 333.0 Million of development capital from MTN, Rocket Internet, AXA Group and
Goldman Sachs on March 3rd, 2016
• Rebosis Property Fund (South Africa) had 9.76% of its stake, worth USD 34.6 Million, acquired by Arrowhead ProperƟes through a
private placement on March 8th, 2016
• The Youga Gold Mine (Burkina Faso) was acquired by MNG Gold for USD 25.3 Million on March 8th, 2016
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
23.1%
4.2%
3.7%
38.6%
14.4%
4.9%
2.9%
2.4%
15.0%
6.1%
4.5%
2.8%
8.4%
Retail Metals, Minerals
& Mining
Commercial
Services
Financal Services
PharmaceuƟcals
& Biotechnology
SoŌware
Consumer
Non-durables
Commercial
Products
Commercial Banks Others
South Africa
Ethiopia
Egypt
Rwanda
Burkina Faso
Kenya
Madagascar
Morocco
Liberia
Nigeria
29,740,000.0

Company
South Sudan at a Glance
29.4%
29.1%
20.5%
10.3%
5.3%
4.0% 1.4%
South Sudan in the East African Economy
(Percentage of Region’s GDP)
Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania
Uganda South Sudan Rwanda
Burundi
South Sudan Gross Domestic Product
(USD Bln)
USD 918.7
11.9 Million
USD 1,045.8
13.1 Million
South Sudan Population and GDP per Capita
Population
GDP per Capita
:Source: Business Monitor International, World Bank, Stratlink Africa
USD 1,847.6
10.5 Million
2011 2014 2017(F)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (f) 2017(f)
Impact of prolonged civil
strife between the
government of President
Salva Kiir Mayardit and
opposition forces allied to
Dr Riek Machar. In August
2015, the two signed a
peace accord
During the Seventeenth Ordinary Summit for the East African Community (EAC) Heads of State, member states agreed
to admit South Sudan following a report by the council on the negotiations for the admission. The country is now
expected to be placed under observation before full admission to the bloc, a period reported to take about three years.
19.4
22.1
26.5
29.8
11.3
11.3
13.7

Company
Opportunity Risk
6.0%
8.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Assets Profit Share
Kenya South Sudan Tanzania
Uganda Rwanda Burundi
Kenya South Sudan Tanzania
Rwanda Uganda DRC
4.4%
1.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Assets Profit Share
Growing Investor Interest in South Sudan
Kenya Commercial Bank 2015 Equity Bank 2015
:Source: Equity Bank, Kenya Commercial Bank, Stratlink Africa Analysis
South Sudan has been a market of growing interest for East African investors, notably those in banking and financial
stability and a stable macroeconomic environment. South Sudan is a key driver of profitability amongst subsidiaries for
economy, there are a lot of unexplored sectors such as
manufacturing and financial services.
Prior to the outbreak of civil strife in 2013/14, the country’s
GDP per Capita stood at USD 2,500.0 (higher than Kenya’s at
Macroeconomic convergence amongst the economies
remains a major hurdle to circumvent. In the last one year,
shocks from the external environment, notably in the
monetary sphere, have affected the region’s economies in an
asymmetric manner. In December 2015, South Sudan
challenges in Burundi and the ongoing civil strife.
the economy.
in South Sudan owing to shared interests. This could be a
major shot in the arm towards greater stability in the region.

Company
Commission Misses Voter Registration Target
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries
Commission (IEBC) wound up the first phase
of voter registration ahead of the next election
(2017), failing to realize its target of 4,000,000 new
voters. Whereas this has been widely perceived as
a pointer to voter apathy, we believe the second
phase of registration is bound to elicit a lot more
interestgivenitsproximitytothe2017poll.Despite
a general rise in rhetoric in the recent past, the
political climate remains stable and favourable.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Non-alcoholic Beverage Segment to Maintain
Attractiveness through 2020
We maintain focus on the vibrant retail sector and
look at consumption of non-alcoholic beverages.
Between 2013 and 2015, growth in sale of non-
alcoholic beverages stood at 10.1% (CAGR) to USD
401.2 Million. On the ground, this can be traced
in, amongst other drivers, the rapid expansion of
coffee houses in key urban centres such as Nairobi
and Mombasa.
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Non-alcoholic Drinks Sales (USD)
Source: Business Monitor International, StratLink Africa
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
Millions
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Stability in the Monetary Environment
The monetary environment is stabilizing ─ inflation
is on the downtrend and the shilling has held
resiliently within the 101.0 – 102.0 band (in line
with our forecast in January 2016) through Q1,
2016. The recent episode of a tight monetary
environment (that clamped on growth in money
supply) and depressed oil prices have been
instrumental in arresting pressures witnessed
in the latter half of 2015. The country has also
secured a stand-by loan from the International
Monetary Fund totaling USD 1.5 Billion that should
help mitigate the impact of shocks between 2016
and 2018.
Inflation and Money Supply Evolution
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, StratLink Africa
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
InﬂaƟon Money Supply Growth (RHS)
KENYA
Full report available for purchase via:

Company
Economic Slowdown Shifts Risk Focus
We remain cautiously optimistic over the political
risk outlook for Nigeria. Whereas threats from the
Boko Haram insurgency continue to lurk in the
horizon, the economic slowdown shifts focus to
the potential social strain bound to be created by
a rise in unemployment and disenfranchisement
by the public. The unemployment rate stands at
9.9%, from a low of 6.4% in December 2014; an
indication that the adverse economic environment
is taking its toll on job creating engines. This should
be of particular interest given the challenges
Nigeria is facing with the Boko Haram insurgency
and radicalization of persons, largely reported to
be youth.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Growth Engines Grapple with the Stagnation
Trap
Investor appetite for the Nigerian market is likely
to be depressed in the coming quarters as key
sectors of the economy grapple with stagnation.
Construction has hovered around the 0.0%, year-
on-year, growth mark for two quarters now whilst
manufacturing is showing signs of shrugging off
contraction suffered in the better part of 2015.
The construction sector is likely to have been
derailed by austere fiscal measures whereas the
manufacturing has been undermined by high
input costs (in view of the weakening Naira) and
challenges in electricity supply.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Year-on-Year Growth
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Q1,2013
Q2,2013
Q3,2013
Q4,2013
Q1,2014
Q2,2014
Q3,2014
Q4,2014
Q1,2015
Q2,2015
Q3,2015
Q4,2015
Manufacturing ConstrucƟon
NIGERIA
Growth Momentum Sags to Low Single Digits
The economy grew by an average 2.8% in 2015
across all quarters (against StratLink Africa’s
projected 3.0%) from 6.2% in 2014, an indicator
that the tumble in oil prices is taking its toll on
growth engines. Going forward, we remain bearish
about Nigeria’s prospects in 2016 with investor
perception likely to be deteriorated further by two
factors as explained here-below.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Source: Bloomberg, National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa
Economic Growth
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Q1,2013
Q2,2013
Q3,2013
Q4,2013
Q1,2014
Q2,2014
Q3,2014
Q4,2014
Q1,2015
Q2,2015
Q3,2015
Q4,2015
Rise in Short-term Yields Signals Concern over
Inflation
In March 2016, short-term yields rose above the
levels registered in the preceding month; medium
term posted a decline whilst there was a marginal
downward movement on the long-term end of
the curve. The short-term end of the curve points
at a likelihood of inflation-wary sentiments by
investors. The steady rise in inflation has been a
cause for concern for investors, especially having
soared to 11.4% in February 2016 – breaching the
double digit boundary.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
Poor Logistics Infrastructure inhibits Local
Competitiveness
Receipt of a USD 1.1 Billion loan from the African
Development Bank (AfDB) is expected to help the
country improve logistics. Poor infrastructure has
hampered the business environment owing to
hiccups in logistics that disadvantage investors.
Reports suggest that the cost of shipping to
Tanzania is on average 25.0% higher than that to
competitor ports such as, Kenya, Ghana and South
Africa.
100=Lowest Risk, 0=Highest Risk
Opposition Boycotts Zanzibar’s Presidential Poll
Re-run
Zanzibar, which has been in a political and
constitutional crisis since the annulment of the
October 25th 2015 election, held the presidential
election re-run on March 20th, 2016. The election,
which was boycotted by the main opposition party,
CUF and nine other smaller parties, was won by
the incumbent president of Chama Cha Mapinduzi
(CCM) party, clinching 91.4% of the vote. The
impasse had threatened to send the country back
to the inter-party animosity that preceded the
2010 formation of the outgoing Government of
National Unity (GNU), besides complicating the
already tense relations with mainland Tanzania.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Source: BMI, StratLink Africa
Logistics Risk Index
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
SouthAfrica
MauriƟus
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Tanzania
SSAAverage
TANZANIA
Growth on the Right Track
The near-term macroeconomic outlook is likely to
benefitfromapost-electionreboundininvestment
owing to the new administration’s perceived
goodwill in fighting corruption and improvement
in fiscal consolidation. Since winning the October
25th, 2015 election, the new administration has
beenaggressiveinaddressinggovernmentwaste,a
move that is reigniting positive investor sentiment
on the economy. The new administration’s
perceived goodwill, if sustained, bodes well for the
country’s relationship with donors and investors
over medium to long term, particularly, given
strained relations with a section of development
partners between 2014 and 2015.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
T-Bill Yield Trend
Source: Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Short-term yields registered a general decline in
March 2016, on the back of rising liquidity and
declining inflationary pressure ─ inflation declined
from 6.5% in February 2016 to 5.6% in March
2016.
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
91 Day 182 Day 364 Day

Company
Rebels’ Push for Cabinda Autonomy Dims
Outlook ahead of 2017 Poll
We adopt a cautious position on the country’s
risk outlook following renewed push for greater
autonomy by the rebel movement, Front for
the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC)
which threatens to deteriorate the environment if
mismanaged. This is likely to weigh into investors’
consideration ahead of the 2017 general election.
This could well add to the oil related challenges
the country is facing given that Cabinda accounts
for an estimated 60.0% ─ 70.0% of Angola’s
output. In the recent past, FLEC has played a key
role in shaping Angola’s pre-election climate as
it did in 2012 when it pushed for talks with the
government.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Investors Pin Confidence on New Central Bank
Boss
Investors will be looking to the new Central Bank
Governor (appointed on March 05th, 2016) to
reverse the tide of waning confidence in the
economy. The new governor takes charge amidst
an environment fraught will monetary pressures
that have seen the Kwanza nose dive in the last
one year on the back of tanking oil prices. The
following are some areas we believe will define
policy priorities going forward:
• Arresting Inflation: Inflation has been on an
unabated uptick, causing uncertainty amongst
investors on the erosion of the real value of
the local currency. We expect the monetary
stance to be maintained relatively tight through
December 2016 in a bid to reverse this trend
ANGOLA
Kwanza Shows Volatility as Risk Perception Dims
InJanuary2016,weexpressedconcernoversteady
decline in Angola’s foreign exchange reserves
and suggested there would be declining capacity
to support the Kwanza in the months ahead.
The Kwanza has since lost resilience against the
greenback and characterized by volatility between
February 2016 and March 2016.
Angola Kwanza to USD
Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
105.0
115.0
125.0
135.0
145.0
155.0
165.0
01-Jun-15
01-Jul-15
01-Aug-15
01-Sep-15
01-Oct-15
01-Nov-15
01-Dec-15
01-Jan-16
01-Feb-16
01-Mar-16
The Kwanza has been rocked by
volaƟlity over the last two months
The volatility can be ascribed to a number of
factors:
• In November 2015, official estimates indicated
the fiscal break-even oil price stood at USD 90/
barrel. With global prices trending at about
28.0% of the target price (USD 90.0/barrel),
investors are likely to be pricing in elevated
fiscal and monetary risks bound to characterize
the remaining quarters of 2016. Oil accounts
for 95.0% of the country’s export revenue, and
depressed prices threaten macroeconomic
stability in the months ahead

Company
Hike in Levy Threatens High Growth Sector
The proposed raise of excise duty levied on
cement could derail the construction sector, one of
Uganda’s main engines of economic growth. Excise
duty charged on a 50.0 kilogram bag of cement is
set to be increased from USD 0.15 to USD 0.29,
as the government looks to plug holes in revenue
mobilization in the financial year underway.
Note: The chart above includes the Democratic
Republic of Congo
Source: Bank of Uganda, StratLink Africa
Cement Consumption (Mt)
Supreme Court Dismisses Presidential Petition
The Supreme Court dismissed the Presidential
petition filed by former National Resistance
Movement Premier and 2016 presidential hopeful,
Amama Mbabazi, on March 31st, 2016 citing
insufficiency of evidence to warrant nullification
of the outcome. This marks the third presidential
election petition that has been dismissed by the
Supreme Court; a similar conclusion was arrived
at in light of the 2006 and 2011 petitions. It elicits
concern over the independence of the country’s
judicature, diminishing public confidence in
the credibility of judicial processes. In addition,
opposition luminary, Kizza Besigye, has been
under house arrest for a month deepening
concerns over democratic space in the country.
The Supreme Court case was widely perceived as
a litmus test for the judiciary similar to the one
faced in Kenya in the aftermath of the contested
2013 presidential poll outcome.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 (f)
Uganda Kenya East Africa
UGANDA
Budget Cut as Domestic Revenue Dwindles
The country seems headed for contractionary
fiscal policy with the government indicating plans
to reduce its budget for the 2017 financial year by
13.0% from USD 7.1 Billion in 2016 fiscal year, of
which 75.0 % is set to be funded through increased
taxcollection. Weviewthisasameasuretotighten
the belt in the face of depressed commodity prices
which have left a number of economies in Sub-
Saharan Africa fiscally vulnerable.
Domestic Taxes Plunge in Q1, 2016
Total revenue in Q1, 2016 declined by 13.3%
to USD 746.2Million, partly attributable to a
decline in domestic taxes which fell by 36.0% to
USD 202.8 Million. This is a likely pointer at the
generally adverse macroeconomic environment
that consumers and firms confronted in the
wake of deterioration by the country’s monetary
environment and the build up to the February
2016 general election. This is likely to reverse in
subsequent quarters given a favourable political
environment.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields in the short term market registered mixed
results on the back of tightening liquidity in the
money market. The interbank rate rose by 240.0
bps to 14.0% between January and February,
2016, an indication that the central bank could be
tightening conditions to support the shilling. The
government could also be facing rising pressure
to borrow from the domestic market as it faces
challenges in revenue mobilization.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
Deteriorating Relations between Uneasy
Neighbors
Rwanda and Burundi seem headed for severed
relations as the two countries suffer mistrust
emanating from recriminations of sheltering
insurgents and spies. Relations have hit a new low
after Burundi accused Rwanda of sending spies to
its borders and backing rebels to oust President
Pierre Nkurunziza, an accusation allegedly
supported by a report by the United Nations
Security Council report and which Rwanda has
denied. There are concerns that growing tensions
between the two neighboring countries could
derail the peace and stability of the East Africa
Community, of which both nations are members.
Whereas the two countries are key trade partners
within the East African Community, Burundi is
bound to suffer more than Rwanda the latter
accounted for an average 40.0% of its exports to
EAC between 2006 and 2014.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Boosting Electricity Distribution
The government has a signed a USD 18. 4 million
financing agreement with the government of
Japan in a bid to boost electricity distribution
networks, and reduce the cost of production
for the private sector. This comes as a timely
development in view of Rwanda’s drop in ranking
in the Ease of Doing Business 2016 to 66 from
55 (out of 189 countries), owing, in part to poor
ranking in business’ access to electricity.
Source: World Bank, StratLink Africa
2016 2015 Change
Metric Rank Rank in Rank
Getting electricity 118 115 -3
Starting a business 111 117 6
Getting credit 2 4 2
RWANDA
Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, StratLink Africa
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economy Grows by 6.9% in 2015
Rwanda’s 6.9% GDP growth in 2015, compared to
7.0% in 2014, suggests the economy’s recovery is
on course, defying headwinds from the external
environment. In 2015, subdued commodity prices
elicited widespread concern that the economy’s
recovery from the 2013 donor aid shock risked
being disrupted with growth underperforming
investor expectations.
Real GDP Growth
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
General Rise in Yields as Liquidity Rises
Yields in the T-Bill market reported mixed
performance in March 2016 even as government
borrowing plunged by 23.8% to USD 48.3 Million,
month-on-month. Similarly, the money market
witnessed a relative rise in liquidity over the same
period with the interbank rate declining marginally
by ten bps to 4.8% in February 2016.

Company
StratLink in the News
StratLink Africa continues to make commentary on thematic issues in frontier and emerging markets. Below please find
links to the latest pieces.
Please click the buttons to view the full articles
Entrepreneur - What entrepreneurs must know before entering new markets: In this piece, Konstantin Makarov
discusses key factors to be considered before investors enter a new market.
Ventureburn - Finding Promise and consistency in turbulent times: In this piece, Konstantin Makarov looks into the
opportunities emerging in the European Union.
CCTV Africa - Commodity prices and the future of economic policy in Africa: In this interview, Julians Amboko analyses
the impact of the commodities price rout on Africa’s economic policy.

Company
STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE
StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company
with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and
Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in
the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and
partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing
quality services and access to capital. We recognize
opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing
middle market companies with leading global investment
banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the
importance of making informed decisions and leverage our
regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients.
Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic
research
Within our purview of coverage are nine economies –
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana,
Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and
analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic
environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct
sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on
market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well
as potential challenges.
Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data
Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile
team traversing the fields of economics and finance with
qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The
team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such
as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson
One Research, World Economics and The World Today.
As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in
an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to
relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central
Banks, ministries and state departments.
Authoritative voice on regional economics
StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary
and opinion on issues pertaining Sub-Saharan African
economies and investment. Reputable media including
CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg
have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis.
Where we are based
Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in
New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur.
STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM
Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner
konstantin.makarov@StratLinkglobal.com
Dina Farfel – Partner
dfarfel@StratLinkglobal.com
Kyle Drexler – Associate
kyle.drexler@StratLinkglobal.com
Jackson Mwatha – Associate
jackson.mwatha@StratLinkglobal.com
Samuel Odero - Analyst
samuel.oyier@StratLinkglobal.com
Lewis Muguro - Analyst
lewis.muguro@StratLinkglobal.com
Benson Njeri – Analyst
benson.njeri@StratLinkglobal.com
Julians Amboko – Research Analyst
julians.amboko@StratLinkglobal.com
Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst
sophia.sifuma@StratLinkglobal.com
Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design
peter.mutisya@StratLinkglobal.com

Company
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©StratLink Africa Limited 2016

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15August 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
ContactDetails
STRATLINK AFRICA
StratLink - Africa, Limited.
Delta Riverside, Block 4,
4th Floor, Riverside Drive,
Nairobi, Kenya
nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
+254202572792
Company

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