6. Doubling Time
This map shows how long it will take for countries to double
their population if it continued to grow at the present rate
7. Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Stage 5 ?
9. Stage 2
Early Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 2
• Population growing at
faster rate
• High but decreasing
birth rate
• Decreasing death rate
• Sri Lanka/Bolivia
• UK: 1780-1880
10. Stage 3
Late Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 3
• Population still
increasing, but rate of
increase slowing down
• Decreasing birth rate
• Low death rate
• Uruguay/China
• UK: 1880-1940
12. Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Ethiopia/
Niger
UK:
pre-1780
Natural
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Sri Lanka/
Bolivia
UK:
1780-1880
Uruguay/
China
UK:
1880-1940
Canada/
USA
UK:
Post-1940
14. Reasons for Stage 1
High Fluctuating
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 1
• Little access to birth control
• Many children die in infancy
so parents have more to
compensate
• Children are needed to work
on the land
• Some religions encourage
large families
• Death rates are high due to
disease, famine, poor diet,
poor hygiene, little medical
science
15. Reasons for Stage 2
Early Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care
• Improvements in sanitation
and water supply
• Quality and quantity of food
produced improves
• Transport and
communications improve
movements of food and
medical supplies
• Decrease in infant mortality
16. Reasons for Stage 3
Late Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception
• Lower infant mortality rates so less
need for bigger families
• Industrialisation and mechanisation
means fewer labourers required
• As wealth increases, desire for
material possessions takes over the
desire for large families
• Equality of women means they can
follow a career rather than just
staying at home
17. Reasons for Stage 4
Low Fluctuating
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 4
• Rates fluctuate with ‘baby
booms’ and epidemics of
illnesses and diseases
• Reasons for Stage 4 have
improved and it stabilises
18. Is there a Stage 5?
?
?
?
Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting)
Population
19. Limitations
What limitations do you think there could be with
the model?
• It does not include the influences of migration
• It assumes that all countries will go through the
same pattern
• There is no time scale
• Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very
different in different countries
• And finally, is there a stage 5?