The Disrupted City: Technological Change and the Future of Transportation, Environment and Shared Prosperity
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Ramez Naam is a computer scientist and award-winning author. He spent 13 years at Microsoft, where he played leadership roles on early versions of Outlook, Internet Explorer, and Bing. He's written four books, including the science-fiction novel Nexus, and the non-fiction The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet, which charts a course to innovate our way past challenges in energy, food, water, and climate. Ramez’s work has appeared in or been quoted in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, The Atlantic, Slate, Business Week, Discover, Wired, and Scientific American. He teaches on innovation, environment, and energy at Singularity University at NASA Ames. Follow Ramez on twitter: @ramez or visit him at http://rameznaam.com
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The Disrupted City: Technological Change and the Future of Transportation, Environment and Shared Prosperity
- 2. 14 YEARS IN TECH
- 4. RAMEZ NAAM Ramez Naam @ramez
- 5. NOW TEACHING IMPACTS OF EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES NOW TEACHING ON IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
- 14. CHALLENGES
- 15. TRANSPORTATION
- 16. 50 Billion Hours ~7% of US GDP
- 17. BIKES / NON CAR TRANSPORT
- 18. Miami Bike Lanes
- 20. Dhy
- 21. Sam
- 22. Kansas
- 31. NATIONAL DROUGHT
- 33. TEMPERATURE CHANGE SINCE 1880 (degrees F) Linfield College
- 42. Andrey Smirnov
- 43. Xinhua
- 44. Chongqing
- 52. ARE WE SCREWED?
- 53. Terry Luns
- 54. Marvin Greene
- 55. Cleveland State
- 56. Cleveland State
- 57. Brent Durken
- 59. SMOG IN NEW YORK CITY, 1966
- 61. NASA
- 62. NASA
- 63. Lead Benzene Sulfur Dioxide Acid Rain Water Pollution Smog Particulates Asbestos CFCs …
- 64. Crime Teen Pregnancy Elderly Poverty Infectious Disease Drunk Driving Driving Deaths
- 65. HOW?
- 66. Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources
- 67. INNOVATING IN:
- 68. 1. POLICY
- 69. 2. TECHNOLOGY
- 70. 3. BUSINESS
- 71. POLICY BIZTECH
- 73. NASA CFC Release (thousands of tons)
- 74. Lead Benzene Sulfur Dioxide Acid Rain Water Pollution Smog Particulates Asbestos CFCs …
- 75. Commons
- 76. MARKET FAILURE
- 86. Michael O’Donnell $100 TRILLION TO BUILD IPHONE 6 WITH 1940s TECH
- 87. COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO {AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION, DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}
- 88. Moore’s Law for Solar PV AMD
- 89. Cost of Solar Power CROSSOVER: STARTING NOW $77.00 $0.50 150x Price Decline
- 93. POLICY BIZTECH
- 94. POLICY BIZTECH
- 95. TRANSPORTATION
- 98. TRILLIONS OF MILES DRIVEN VS. DOT FORECAST
- 104. DRIVING CORRELATES ONLY WEAKLY WITH GASOLINE PRICES
- 113. MILLENNIALS VALUE PHONES > CARS
- 116. WANT TO BE ONLINE DURING TRAVEL
- 121. MULTIPLE FACTORS 1. ECONOMY 2. URBAN DENSITY 3. OWNING ACCESS 4. TRAVEL ONLINE 5. WANT TO BE ONLINE DURING TRAVEL
- 122. IT’S NOT GOING TO STOP
- 127. 1 MILLION MILES DRIVEN ZERO ACCIDENTS
- 128. 34,000 lives a year in US 1 million worldwide
- 129. NHTSA: $871 Billion 29 cents / mile
- 132. 50 Billion Hours ~7% of US GDP
- 135. 3 parking spaces / car 60% of land in LA
- 138. IN HALF?
- 139. OR DOUBLE?
- 140. DENSITY?
- 141. OR SPRAWL?
- 142. POLICY BIZTECH
- 152. POLICY BIZTECH
- 154. 10,000 x
- 156. = 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use
- 157. 1 Hour of Sunlight
- 158. = 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use
- 160. 31 GW 318 GW 10x Growth 11 Years
- 161. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 UScentsperkwh Wind Cost Per Kwh (US) $0.55 / kwh $0.05 / kwh 10x Price Decline
- 162. LARGER WIND TURBINES
- 163. DATA AND ALGORITHMS
- 164. LOW SPEED WIND
- 165. LOW SPEED WIND
- 167. Cost of Solar Power $77.00 $0.50 100x Price Decline
- 168. <1% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity.
- 169. 3 parking spaces / car 60% of land in LA
- 173. 1.3 GW 137 GW100x Growth 13 Years
- 174. CONTINUING RESEARCH
- 176. SOLAR VS NEW FOSSIL ELECTRICITY
- 180. RENT VS OWN AGENCY PROBLEM
- 183. RENT VS OWN, AGAIN
- 184. SHARED PROSPERITY
- 185. SHARED PROSPERITY
- 186. THREE QUESTIONS
- 187. CAN WE BOOST SOCIAL MOBILITY?
- 188. CAN WE LOWER THE COST OF LIVING?
- 190. CAN WE BOOST SOCIAL MOBILITY?
- 195. POLICY BIZTECH
- 196. CAN WE LOWER THE COST OF LIVING?
- 197. COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO {AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION, DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}
- 198. Cost of Solar Power$77.00 $0.50 150x Price Decline
- 205. $500,000 (2008) to $22,000 (2013) 23x in 5 years Technologies Industrial Robots
- 209. Cleveland State
- 210. Brent Durken
- 213. SMOG IN NEW YORK CITY, 1966
- 215. Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources
Editor's Notes
- Adjunct faculty at Singularity University.
- Aivaris Zukis http://www.flickr.com/photos/stunna1/5710694970/in/photostream/ So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living.. We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them. --- We’ve been warned that growth was about to destroy us before. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich warned us that population growth was about to doom billions to starvation. goway.com/blog/2010/04/06/shanghai-exposed/
- Image source: Linfield College. http://www.linfield.edu/
- Image: DHY Average American uses 1600 cubic meters of water per year. A cube 40’ on a side.
- Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons, Sam Beebe, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crop_circles_along_the_Columbia,_Washington,_USA.jpg 70% OF WORLDWIDE WATER USE FOR AGRICULTURE
- Ogallala Aquifer. Provides water for farming across 8 states in the high plains. Fossil water, filled for more than 10,000 years Since 1960, we’ve used up HALF of the water in this aquifer. In areas of Texas, the flow from pumps is now a quarter of what it was. By 2050, at current rates, this resource that took more than 10,000 years to fill up will be gone. Image source: Kansas University: http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/Bulletins/162/03_strat.html
- Green Bridge, Lake Oroville, 2011
- Green Bridge, Lake Oroville, 2014
- Marina Lake Oroville CA 2011
- Marina Lake Oroville 2014
- Enterprise Bridge Lake Oroville
- Enterprise Bridge Lake Oroville
- Image source: Linfield College. http://www.linfield.edu/
- Image source: Linfield College. http://www.linfield.edu/
- Bear Glacier Source: Globalwarmingart.com
- Pederson Glacier Globalwarming art
- Pederson Glacier Source: globalwarmingart.com
- Photo: European Pressphoto Agency European heat wave of 2003. Potato farmer in Russia. In August of 2003, Europe was hit with the hottest summer on record since at least 1540. More than 70,000 people died. France lost 20% of its wheat harvest. Fires destroyed 10% of the forests of Portugal. Melting glaciers brought on avalanches and flash floods in Switzerland. Ukraine lost a whopping 75% of its wheat harvest. 2003 European Heat Wave, Wikipedia, accessed 8/16/11, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE OF 2003. HOTTEST SUMMER SINCE 1540. 70,000 DEATHS. 10% OF PORTUGAL’S FORESTS DESTROYED BY FIRE. 75% OF UKRAINE WHEAT CROP LOST.
- Photo: Andrey Smirnov Russian heat wave of 2010. 55 EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE OF 2010, CENTERED ON RUSSIA. 55,000 DEATHS. 11,000 DEATHS IN MOSCOW ALONE. RUSSIAN WHEAT CROP DECIMATED. ,000 people killed. 11,000 people in Moscow alone.
- 2009 CHINA NORTHERN DROUGHT 2010: CHINA SOUTH / SOUTHWEST DROUGHT 20MILLION PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE DRINKING WATER WELLS IN GUANXI SINCE 1517 WENT DRY
- [CHONGQING] RAINS CAME BACK IN MAY. 15 MILLION PEOPLE EVAQUATED. 1 MILLION HOMES DESTROYED. $51 BILLION IN DAMAGE. 400 BILLION YUAN
- Rocinha Favela Brazil Wikimedia Commons
- Rocinha Favela Brazil Wikimedia Commons
- Image: terryluns
- Marvin Greene: http://csudigitalhumanities.org/exhibits/items/show/1909
- Businesses polluted the river, because they had no incentive not to. In fact, it was cheaper for them to dump waste and oil into the river then it was for them to deal with disposing it properly. In other words, the river was a commons. And it was being hit with the tragedy of the commons – the overuse or destruction of a resource that everyone shares, an that no one owns. Those businesses are able to privatize gains, while socializing the losses. They reap the profits of selling products made in a dirty way, and they make the rest of the community – and those down stream – pay for the damage. And that’s a classic market failure. The market actually encourages businesses to exploit the commons. Because if they don’t, a competitor will, and will gain an advantage over them. Cleveland State University: Cleveland Press, “Oil Slick on the Cuyahoga,” Teaching & Learning Cleveland , accessed March 6, 2012, http://csudigitalhumanities.org/
- Cleveland State University In this case, the results were spectacular. A train passing on a bridge over the river threw a spar down into the oil, and the river caught fire. This wasn’t even the first time the river had caught fire. It was the 13th. But this time, it caught national attention. And the following year, Richard Nixon signed legislation creating the EPA. Over the next 4 years Congress would pass the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water act, that restricted the ability of people to pollute.
- Just as we’ve innovated in technology, we’ve innovated in the rules that govern us. The year after the Cuyahoga River fire, the EPA was created. In the next 3 years, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act were both passed. Today, the river is cleaner, even while Cleveland is far richer than it was in 1969. There’s no trade off between economic growth and environment, IF we put the right incentives in place to protect those commons. The man who signed the EPA, clean air act, and clean water acts into law, by the way, was a Republican – Richard Nixon. Brent Durken: http://brentdurken.com/tag/cuyagoga-river/
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html Reagan: Wikimedia commons
- Most important resource we have is new ideas. It’s our ability to innovate. If we continue to innovate both in technology and in how we manage our resources, then we can have our cake and eat it to. There is no limit to the wealth and well being we can aspire to, on a healthy, living planet, if we make the right choices.
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html Reagan: Wikimedia commons
- The United States went from 90% of its rural population without connection to the grid to 90% connected between 1936 and 1950.
- Photo: Michael O’Donnel We’ve done it with computers. At the efficiency of the 1940s, an iPhone would have to be larger than the city of Chicago, and draw more power than the entire state of California. ---- We’ve even done it with oil and water. The average american now uses a third less of each than in 1970, even as the size of our economy has doubled. That’s not enough, not yet. But it’s a start. Images: Wikimedia
- Image Source: AMD In 1954, solar cells cost $1,000 per Watt of power. Today, these cells, manufactured like microchips, cost around $2 per Watt. ---- If we keep innovating, in 10 years, solar will be cheaper than coal. In 20 years, it could be half the price, providing us clean, abundant, cheap energy to power our future.
- Self-Driving Cars Don’t Need Parking.
- Image source: Linfield College. http://www.linfield.edu/
- Use Tech -> Drive Transparency
- Image source: ???
- http://solarenergyfactsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/solar-energy-to-power-world.jpg Looks accurate at about 20%.
- This graph, along the bottom, represents the long-term costs in the US of two types of oil (Henry Hub, Brent), coal, and liquefied natural gas. The line coming down on the right is the price of solar energy. Why is this chart called “the Terrordome”? Because this analyst is telling his clients – get out of fossil fuels. They will be disrupted by solar.
- Rocinha Favela Brazil Wikimedia Commons
- Rocinha Favela Brazil Wikimedia Commons
- Multi-billion dollar danger to Argentina. Multi-TRILLION dollar opportunity.
- Cleveland State University In this case, the results were spectacular. A train passing on a bridge over the river threw a spar down into the oil, and the river caught fire. This wasn’t even the first time the river had caught fire. It was the 13th. But this time, it caught national attention. And the following year, Richard Nixon signed legislation creating the EPA. Over the next 4 years Congress would pass the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water act, that restricted the ability of people to pollute.
- Just as we’ve innovated in technology, we’ve innovated in the rules that govern us. The year after the Cuyahoga River fire, the EPA was created. In the next 3 years, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act were both passed. Today, the river is cleaner, even while Cleveland is far richer than it was in 1969. There’s no trade off between economic growth and environment, IF we put the right incentives in place to protect those commons. The man who signed the EPA, clean air act, and clean water acts into law, by the way, was a Republican – Richard Nixon. Brent Durken: http://brentdurken.com/tag/cuyagoga-river/
- Aivaris Zukis http://www.flickr.com/photos/stunna1/5710694970/in/photostream/ So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living.. We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them. --- We’ve been warned that growth was about to destroy us before. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich warned us that population growth was about to doom billions to starvation. goway.com/blog/2010/04/06/shanghai-exposed/
- Most important resource we have is new ideas. It’s our ability to innovate. If we continue to innovate both in technology and in how we manage our resources, then we can have our cake and eat it to. There is no limit to the wealth and well being we can aspire to, on a healthy, living planet, if we make the right choices.