A global revolution is in full swing, and the Sustainable Brands Conference is where sustainability, brand and innovation leaders gather to learn, share and strategize to shape the future. SB'12 was the largest gathering to date, a kinetic convergence of innovators from more than 150 companies from around the world finding new ways to create monumental disruption in traditional models of commerce and consumption.

1. SCENARIO PLANNING FOR
SUSTAINABILITY: FUTURE-PROOFING
YOUR BRAND
Sally Uren, Forum for the Future

2. future-proofing brands
June 4, 2012
Taking a long-term view for sustainable development

3. a bit about Forum for the Future

4. who are we?

5. our network

6. a bit about futures

7. what is ‘futures’?
Use of techniques for structured thinking about the
future, to improve decisions today
long-term trends horizon scanning
visions scenarios

8. why futures?

9. futures for strategy

10. developing joint visions

11. futures for innovation

12. using scenarios to future-proof
brands

15. “I think there is a market for about five computers”
Thomas J Watson, Chairman of the IBM Board, 1943

16. Consumer Futures 2020 is designed as a practical
tool to help organisations throughout the global
consumer goods industry plan for the future – and
find ways of making sustainability mainstream -
today

17. how did the process work?

18. FUTURE CERTAINTIES

19. 1. Demographic
change
Aging population
Not just in the developed world:
by 2050 nearly 1 in 5 people in
developing countries will be
over 60
Life expectancy in developing
countries has risen from 46 to 64 years
since the 1960s. Infant mortality rates have

20. 2. Food, Water & Land scarcity

21. 3. Rising Cost of Key Resources

22. 4. Increasingly extreme climate change
costs & impacts

23. 5. Shifting balance of power
Source: Economist Intelligence
Unit,
Global Forecasting Service

24. 6. Spread of Information
Communications Technology (ICT)
In 1984 there were 1000 devices in
the world capable of accessing
the Internet.
Today: ~1-2billion
In the UK we bought £50 billion
worth of ‘stuff’ via our mobile
phones in 2011 – this was a 70%
increase from 2010.

25. 7. Increasingly enabled to track and trace
the Supply Chain

26. things we are less certain about
• consumer attitudes to sustainability
• government’s response to climate change & other legislation
• the global economy

28. CAUTION!
TREAT SCENARIOS WITH CARE
– not predictions, but images of possible futures, tools to imagine what world
could look like
– stimulate new ideas - challenges and opportunities
– test strategies and brands for resilience

29. a high-tech world, in which smart products
facilitate patterns of consumption that use less
energy and water and generate less CO2.

30. a high-tech world, in which smart products
facilitate patterns of consumption that use
less energy and water and generate less CO2.

31. a personalised consumer world
dominated by brands.

33. a tightly regulated world in
which consumers trust brands to
provide what’s best for them
and for the environment.

34. a world where communities, collaboration
and innovative business models facilitate
low-carbon lifestyles.

36. a tightly regulated world in
which consumers trust brands to
provide what’s best for them
and for the environment.

37. a tightly regulated world in which consumers
trust brands to provide what’s best for them
and for the environment.

39. what do these future possible worlds tell us?
that sustainable consumption has
mainstreamed, whether or not consumers
demand it, and regardless of the economy
with sustainable consumption = smart
growth, smart use, better choice of choice and
social value

40. What do you think?
• Any quick questions/ clarification?
• Which seems most/ least appealing?

41. immersion

42. getting to know your scenario
• you will now be given one scenario per table to work on in depth. Please
imagine your scenario is an accurate description of the real world you are
living in. Please try not to think about your own brand – we’ll do that
later!
• spend 5 minutes quietly reading through the scenario on your own
• then discuss in your tables your answers to the following questions:
1. how do you personally feel about this world? What makes you
happy? What makes you sad?
2. what might you personally be doing in this world?
3. what words would you use to characterise this world?
• be ready to feedback the most interesting points to the room

43. evaluation

44. • Remember that you’re still in 2020!

45. 1. in your scenario groups, consider your answers to the following questions:
• what might be important to your potential consumers in your scenario
in the future?
• how can your brand meet human/ customer/ emotional needs?
• how is that different to 2011?
2. based on that consumer insight:
• what are the opportunities for YOUR brand in this scenario?
• what are the risks for YOUR brand in this scenario?

46. feedback

47. innovation

48. consider:
• the sustainability opportunities and risks common to all scenarios
• the potentially high impact opportunities and risks that appear in only
one scenario
What products or services would your brand be offering (maybe not even
selling!) if it responded to these opportunities and risks in 2020?
what needs to happen today to make this happen?
1. changes in business model?
2. changes in R&D?

49. key recommendations
1. take innovative business models to market
2. work with your value chain to find new
solutions
3. strengthen local brands and local
production
4. build up long-term trust through
transparency
5. use the power of marketing to accelerate
sustainability

50. toolkit
> free for all to access and
use
> guidelines for how to use
the scenarios
> posters for workshops
> storyboards, products and
services for each scenario
> generic tools: personas &
value chain thinking.

52. thank you
Sally Uren
June 4 2012
s.uren@forumforthefuture.org
@sallyuren