The Future of Work & The GIG Economy - Rural
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What kinds of jobs will we need to train students of today for the work of tomorrow? Well the future of work is here. Covers trends in global demographics, innovation and economics that will affect everyone in the future. Millennials will make up 75% of the US workforce by 2025. Perhaps its time to form our systems around how they function? Immense change is upon us. Let's get ahead of it. Particular focus on rural.
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The Future of Work & The GIG Economy - Rural
- 1. THE FUTURE OF WORK
- 2. Goals for tonight • Some realities of the world today • Where innovation trends are heading • What is the GIG economy? • How this changes everything • Where does rural America stand? • Workforce and education
- 4. 100 YEARS AGO, SOME PEOPLE WERE REALLY HOSTILE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF THE AUTOMOBILE OR “DEVIL WAGONS” • No paved roads, gas stations, road signs, street maps, streetlights or traffic signals • Noisy and stirred up dust • Threat to pedestrians, bicyclists, horses • Max speed was 30mph • Broke down frequently • Expensive ($825, or $18,000 today) Innovation is tricky
- 5. SOCIAL MEDIA
- 6. A word on automation
- 9. Some workforce realities • Today = 1,300,000,000 people without electricity • Today = 2,400,000,000 people without toilets • Today = 7,600,000,000 active cell phones • Today = 1,600,000,000 people on Facebook • Today = 5,000,000,000 people entering the middle class • Today = 45% of the world’s workforce are contingent workers • Today = 63,000,000 Americans (43% US workforce) work from home • Today = 16,500,000Virtual RealityVR headsets sold 7.4B Humans
- 10. Some workforce predictions • By 2020, millennials with be 50% of the workforce. By 2025 they will be 75% • By 2020, 50% of US workforce will be freelancers • By 2020, the size of Asia’s middle class will be 3,200,000,000 (triple that in 2009) • By 2025, 4,000,000,000 people coming online • By 2025, 1 in 3 jobs will be robo-replaced by 2025, displacing 140,000,000 workers • By 2030, demand for energy and water is forecast to increase by as much as 50% and 40% respectively • By 2030, the UN projects that 4.9 billion people will be urban dwellers and, by 2050, the world’s urban population will have increased by some 72%
- 11. We could be on the brink of the largest job creation period in humanity • Location doesn’t matter • Work is competitive – no one will pay just for a degree. Based on merit, not location • % of college degrees on the rise (college = new high school) • Informal education is valuable • Crowdsource vs individuals • On-demand vs 30 year pension • The word “career” is as outdated as “typewriter”
- 12. Who is this workforce?
- 13. A new generation 1. Motivated by meaningful work 2. Challenge Hierarchical Structures 3. Want a Relationship withTheir Boss 4. AreTech Savvy,To SayThe Least 5. Are Open to Change 6. AreTask (NotTime) Oriented 7. Have a Hunger for Learning 8. Crave Constant Feedback 9. Want Recognition 10. (Don’t Just) WantTo Have Fun!
- 14. So what is a GIG?
- 15. Think of making a film • Project based • People with unique skillsets come together to produce an outcome • Then they take their skills to the next project. • Workers have portfolios rather than resumes • Virtual teams across time, space and organizational boundaries to collaborate using technology • Networks and connections in the industry are vital to getting hired
- 18. Symptoms of Rural Poverty Barriers to Upward Mobility • Drug & alcohol use • Mental health issues • Low wages (no wealth) • Huge wealth disparities • Lack of skilled workforce • Rampant nepotism • Limited educational opportunities • Limited access to broadband • Limited expertise • Limited activities for young people • Limited access to health care • Limited local businesses (dying main streets) • Limited voting impact (ability to design laws) • Exportation of wealth (banks) • Exportation of natural resources • Food deserts • Traditional (manual) work
- 19. Now to education
- 20. • Technical skill + “soft skills”+ experience = high value What can Adult Education do?
- 21. Real world learning • Critical thinking • Problem solving/troubleshooting • Emotional intelligence • Soft skills/marketing • Design thinking • Coding and machine learning • Process management • Economics and business • The entrepreneur mindset • Networking/Teambuilding CAREER &TECHNICAL EDUCATION
Editor's Notes
- The future of work: educating in the gig economy Technology, jobs, and the future of work. Automation, digital platforms, and other innovations are changing the fundamental nature of work. Understanding these shifts can help policy makers, business leaders, and workers move forward.
- Innovation is the way there. Innovation is taking a problem, idea, or existing solution and making it greener, leaner, faster, stronger, smarter. Innovation isn’t technology per se either. There can be political, social, and cultural innovations that change the way we live as well. Innovation is different than disruption. Sometimes disruption is a great thing when and entirely new solution is found that displaces an older, dirtier or more expensive one. The issues with disruption is that its disruptive. It displaces workers, it retires entire industries, its clunky at first, expensive, not widely accepted and scary to the status quo. People can accept incremental change, but sweeping changes cause a certain amount of civil unrest.
- According to Horatio’s Drive, a 2003 PBS documentary by Ken Burns about the cross-country trip described above, Vermont passed a law requiring a person to walk in front of the car waving a red flag, which rather defeated the purpose of using the car in the first place. In Glencoe, Illinois, someone stretched a length of steel cable across a road in an effort to stop “the devil wagons.” Some cities banned automobiles outright. The machines were too inefficient, unreliable, and expensive, and, more important, the established vectors of transportation had to be rearranged before the new machines could take control. Above all, this meant that roads—and ultimately cities—had to be rebuilt to accommodate the new vehicles. What bridged the gap between the invention and its practical, everyday use were the enthusiasts.
- The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance. The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing. The change brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution is inevitable, not optional. And the possible rewards are staggering: heightened standards of living; enhanced safety and security; and greatly increased human capacity. For people, there must be a shift in mindset.
- Our modern fear that robots will steal all the jobs and render human work useless…this fits a classic script of disruptive technologies. Nearly 500 years ago, Queen Elizabeth I cited the same fear when she denied an English inventor named William Lee a patent for an automated knitting contraption. She said “I have too much regard for the poor women and unprotected young maidens who obtain their daily bread by knitting to forward an invention which, by depriving them of employment, would reduce them to starvation,” But widespread unemployment due to technology has never materialized before. Why, argue the optimists, should this time be any different? There will be disruption of many industries and jobs as we currently know them, and the jobs of an automated tomorrow haven’t been dreamed up yet. The world will always need human brilliance, human ingenuity and human skills.
- The automation disruption hits agriculture and manufacturing the hardest. These are labor intensive production jobs in low margin industries. They supply the goods and food to the world, which is a vital part of life, so automation, increased efficiencies and greater cost savings are greatly needed as world populations grow and natural resources become scarcer. Progress toward automation in these industries is inevitable and necessary. So what do we do with the millions of families who’s livelihoods are supported by these industries? It’s a tough question. As the Industrial Revolution ended, about half of American workers were still employed in agriculture jobs, and almost all of those jobs were about to be lost to machines. About a third of new jobs created in the United States over the past 25 years didn’t exist (or just barely existed) at the beginning of that period, and predicting what jobs might be created in the next 25 years is just guessing. In a report on artificial intelligence and the economy, the Obama White House suggested that automation might create jobs in supervising AI, repairing and maintaining new systems, and in reshaping infrastructure for developments like self-driving cars. But, the report’s authors note, “Predicting future job growth is extremely difficult, as it depends on technologies that do not exist today.” In 2013, researchers at Oxford sparked fear of the robot revolution when they estimated that almost half of US occupations were likely to be automated. But three years later, McKinsey arrived at a very different number. After analyzing 830 occupations, it concluded that just 5% of them could be completely automated.
- The adoption of automation is happening at a truly exponential scale the likes of which modern society has never seen. This promises a paradigm shift where our now global society must question the very foundations of our largely capitalist economy, what new roles with be for humans when their manual labor is no longer required, and how are our institutions going to adjust to make way for a new economy. One based on abundance rather than scarcity. Automation of low skilled jobs, revitalizes the debate on a national base wage, that every citizen will receive regardless of their ability/desire to work. This rapid technological development will inevitably bring about social changes that must be addressed. In the short tern, this will give rise to a job market increasingly segregated into “low-skill/low-pay” and “high-skill/high-pay” segments, which in turn will lead to an increase in social tensions.
- Contingent workers are defined as freelancers, independent contractors, consultants, or other outsourced and non-permanent workers who are hired on a per-project basis. They can work on site or remotely. However, they are not simply temp workers—this discounts the high-value nature and complexity of today’s contingent workforce. Contingent workers are highly skilled experts in their fields.
- There were about 3.2 billion people in the middle class at the end of 2016, 500 million more than I had previously estimated. This implies that in two to three years there might be a tipping point where a majority of the world’s population, for the first time ever, will live in middle-class or rich households. • The rate of increase of the middle class, in absolute numbers, is approaching its all-time peak. Already, about 140 million are joining the middle class annually and this number could rise to 170 million in five years’ time. • An overwhelming majority of new entrants into the middle class—by my calculations 88 percent of the next billion—will live in Asia.
- Oxford University wrote a well publicized report that 47% of jobs will "disappear" in the next 20 years. Well I certainly hope so! I would love the job of toll taker, street sweeper, garbage man, and even bus driver to go away. This is not a bad thing: research shows that for every job that "goes away" another one or two is created ("The Rise and Fall of Nations," cited previously). And I'm not talking about the small number of jobs needed to program computers (even software engineers will be automated soon), every example we've seen shows that when "automation" comes, new jobs are created.
- 1. Millennials Are Motivated by Meaning According to the 2013 Millennial Impact Research Report, 91% of Millennials expect to stay in their current job for 3 years or less 84% of millennials are motivated by meaningful work that allows you to: Share your gifts Make an impact in the lives of others Live your desired quality of life 77% of Millennials stated that their ability to excel in their job is contingent upon deriving meaning from their work. 2. Millennials Challenge Hierarchical Structures Millennials aren’t afraid to share their opinions and ideas, nor challenge those of their superiors. This comes not from a disdain for authority, but from the notion that the best possible outcome for the company will come from listening to everybody’s point of view. They prefer a cross-functional way of working that transcends the constraints of rank, genuinely believing this is better for the business than blindly following orders passed down from the top of the totem pole. 3. Millennials Want a Relationship with Their Boss Millennials want a manager that they can regard as a mentor, even a friend. They want to feel comfortable asking for feedback and advice, and establishing a rapport of frequent communication. 4. Millennials Are Tech Savvy, To Say The Least Millennials breathe technology – though that may be an understatement… 53% of millennials said they rather get rid of their sense of smell than their digital devices! 5. Millennials Are Open to Change Millennials don’t agree with doing something a certain way just because that’s how it’s always been done. This gives them the reputation of sticking their nose up at the status quo, but with how quickly things are changing – is this really a bad thing? 6. Millennials Are Task (Not Time) Oriented 69% of Millennials say they believe office attendance on a regular basis is unnecessary and 89% prefer to choose when and where they work rather than being placed in a 9-5 position. This is because they measure productivity by work completed, not by time spent in the office. 56% saying they would not accept jobs from companies that ban social media. 7. Millennials Have a Hunger for Learning Beyond understanding how to perform a task – Millennials want to know why. 95% said that they are motivated to work harder when they understand the importance of a particular task within the context of the company’s big-picture goals. 8. Millennials Crave Constant Feedback 80% of Millennials said they want to receive regular feedback from their managers. They don’t want to have to wait for their mid-year review, preferring to receive bite-size feedback more often. 9. Want Recognition 89% saying a reward should be given for a job well done 10. (Don’t Just) Want To Have Fun! 90% of Millennials want their workplace to be social and fun, and 88% say that a positive company culture is essential to their dream job.
- Research shows that 92% of companies believe their organizational design is not working, yet only 14% know how to fix it. The world will look to higher education, particularly to community college education, to address these skills gaps and train students from all socioeconomic backgrounds to become GIG workers.
- skills like empathy, listening, communication, and prioritization are essentially human.