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Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050

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The European Green Deal envisions a carbon neutral Europe by 2050. Electrification is a powerful tool that can help catapult Europe’s energy transition forward. Accelerated changes are needed in the power, buildings and transport sectors, but they will fail to emerge without robust policies closely aligned with the decarbonisation goal.

In this webinar, Wouter Nijs of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and David Farnsworth of RAP delve into the role that electrification plays in different scenarios for meeting Europe’s climate goals.

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Electrification in the energy transition: towards net-zero emissions by 2050

  1. 1. David Farnsworth Principal The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 50 State Street, Suite 3 Montpelier, Vermont dfarnsworth@raponline.org raponline.org 25 November 2020 Presentation to the Leonardo ENERGY Electrification Academy The Role of Electrification in the Energy Transition: Beneficial Electrification
  2. 2. David Farnsworth Principal The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® dfarnsworth@raponline.org raponline.org 50 State Street, Suite 3 Montpelier, Vermont About RAP The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® is an independent, non- partisan, non-governmental organization dedicated to accelerating the transition to a clean, reliable, and efficient energy future. Learn more about our work at raponline.org
  3. 3. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® • Brattle: “Utility sales could nearly double by 2050”! • Isn’t it all about load growth? 3 Isn’t all electrification created equal?
  4. 4. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 4 Beneficial Electrification (BE) - Three Conditions 1. Saves Customers Money Over Long-Term 2. Reduces Environmental Impacts 3. Enables Better Grid Management
  5. 5. 5 1. Saves Customers Money Long-Term
  6. 6. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 6 Efficiency Across Fuel Types Source: JJ MCoy, ”Building “good load” to reduce carbon emissions”, 2016. http://nwenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Transpo-Electrification-TE-Workpaper-1-25-2016-FINAL.pdf.zip; https://www.chargevc.org/ev-calculator/
  7. 7. 2. Reduces Environmental Impacts
  8. 8. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 8 Power sector fuel mix is changing: Midcontinent ISO example Source: http://www.misomatters.org/2017/03/3-electricity-industry-issues-we-are-watching-in-2017/
  9. 9. 3. Enables Better Grid Management GTM, How California Can Shape, Shift and Shimmy to Demand Response Nirvana, January 26, 2017. LBNL, California 2025 Demand Response Potential Study, 3/1/17.
  10. 10. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 10 Managing Load • EVs can be a benefit … or a problem for the electric grid. • Draw high amounts of power for short periods of time.
  11. 11. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® Value of Flexibility for Integrating Renewable Energy Avoid Home Charging during these hours Workplace EV Charging 33 Source: Used with permission of California Independent System Operator Corporation http://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_FastFacts.pdf, Fig. 2, p. 3
  12. 12. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 12 At Least, Avoid High-Cost Hours Source: Rhode Island Power Sector Transformation, Phase One Report to Governor Gina M. Raimondo (November 2017)
  13. 13. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® Pairing EV adoption and EV charging with intelligent rate design can improve electric distribution system utilization and create downward pressure on rates through load management and system peak reduction. 13 Managing Load Public Service Commission of Maryland. (2019, January 14). Order No. 88997, In The Matter Of The Petition Of The Electric Vehicle Work Group For Implementation Of A Statewide Electric Vehicle Portfolio, CASE NO. 9478, p. 43-44.
  14. 14. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® Salt River Project’s Time of Use Rates
  15. 15. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 15 Beneficial Electrification (BE) - Three Conditions 1. Saves Customers Money Over Long-Term 2. Reduces Environmental Impacts 3. Enables Better Grid Management
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®  Roadmap for Electric Transportation  Taking First Steps: Insights for States Preparing for Electric Transportation  Beneficial Electrification: Ensuring Electrification in the Public Interest  Beneficial Electrification of Transportation  Getting From Here to There: Regulatory Considerations for Transportation Electrification  Blog post: We All Wish We Were More Flexible: Electrification Load as a Grid Flexibility Resource Electrification: Some RAP Resources
  18. 18. The role of electrification in energy scenarios Focusing on buildings and transport Towards net-zero emissions by 2050 Wouter Nijs, JRC.C7, Knowledge for the Energy Union Electrification Academy Leonardo Energy and the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), 25 November 2020
  19. 19. COM(2019) 640 European Green Deal
  20. 20. European Green Deal COM(2020) 80 final COM(2020) 562 final “…a 2030 target of at least 55% net greenhouse gas emissions reductions compared to 1990… ” “…supporting a cost-effective transition to climate neutrality by 2050… ”
  21. 21. EU’s pathway to reach climate neutrality in 2050 COM(2020) 562 final
  22. 22. + Data behind the graphs, Towards net-zero emissions in the EU energy system by 2050, JRC118592, licensed under CC BY 4.0., © European Union, 1995-2020.
  23. 23. Similar reductions of fossil fuels across scenarios reaching around -55% CO2 by 2030 Source: JRC -70% up to -25% -25% to -50%
  24. 24. “Transport, buildings, agriculture, non-ETS industry and waste, account for almost 60% of total domestic EU emissions.” Transport and buildings: a combined CO2 reduction of 39% compared to 2017 Ongoing work JRC This graph is based on final energy consumption of the transport (excl. international aviation), residential and commercial sectors; SWD(2020) 176 final shows Effort Sharing Regulation CO2 to be reduced by 39 to 40% compared to 2005, current scope.
  25. 25. • Based on JRC interpretation, 10-35% of the buildings replace their fossil heating mainly by heat pumps and district heating • 28-55% reduction in oil use in transport; an uptake of a vehicle stock that consists of 30% to 50% of zero-emission or plug-in hybrid EV • Installed capacity of variable renewables times 2 – 3 • A growth of wind power generation times 1.5 – 3.5 • A growth of solar power generation times 1.5 – 4.5 2030 scenario results imply a significant step up of actions in all sectors
  26. 26. 2050 energy use in buildings: electricity meets 40-60% and ambient/distributed heat up to 50%
  27. 27. 2050 energy use in transport: ZEV 30-80% of the energy but 65-90% of the total vehicle fleet
  28. 28. Electrification in all sectors, but not necessarily more electricity in buildings and industry Source: JRC
  29. 29. Renewables provide 75% to 100% and there is undisputed growth of wind and solar power. However growth for each varies from a factor 3 to 13. Why ? 1. Energy efficiency - technical and in the broader sense 2. The amount of hydrogen/e-fuel versus CCUS deployment Electricity generation up to 2050 from no growth up to an increase by a factor 3 Source: JRC
  30. 30. Direct electrification is only one side of the story Industry LDV Cars Buildings – H&C Buildings - Appliances LCEO Zero Carbon, Carlsson J. et al., Clean energy technologies synergies and issues, JRC119072 (EU27).
  31. 31. Indirect electrification could be the larger wave IndirectDirect LCEO Zero Carbon, Carlsson J. et al., Clean energy technologies synergies and issues, JRC119072 (EU27). H2P2H – Losses Carbon removal (DAC) Industry Aviation and navigation Trucks & LDV
  32. 32. Indirect electrification could be the larger wave + Indirect = TotalDirect LCEO Zero Carbon, Carlsson J. et al., Clean energy technologies synergies and issues, JRC119072 (EU27). H2P2H – Losses Carbon removal (DAC) Industry Aviation and navigation Trucks & LDV Cars Buildings – H&C Buildings - Appliances
  33. 33. Source: JRC
  34. 34. Thank you © European Union 2020 Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders. wouter.nijs@ec.europa.eu @wouternijs
  35. 35. EU Science Hub: ec.europa.eu/jrc @EU_ScienceHub EU Science Hub – Joint Research Centre EU Science, Research and Innovation Eu Science Hub Keep in touch

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