The European Green Deal envisions a carbon neutral Europe by 2050. Electrification is a powerful tool that can help catapult Europe’s energy transition forward. Accelerated changes are needed in the power, buildings and transport sectors, but they will fail to emerge without robust policies closely aligned with the decarbonisation goal. In this webinar, Wouter Nijs of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and David Farnsworth of RAP delve into the role that electrification plays in different scenarios for meeting Europe’s climate goals.

1. David Farnsworth
Principal
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
50 State Street, Suite 3
Montpelier, Vermont
dfarnsworth@raponline.org
raponline.org
25 November 2020
Presentation to the Leonardo ENERGY Electrification Academy
The Role of Electrification in the Energy
Transition: Beneficial Electrification

2. David Farnsworth
Principal
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
dfarnsworth@raponline.org
raponline.org
50 State Street, Suite 3
Montpelier, Vermont
About RAP
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® is an independent, non-
partisan, non-governmental organization dedicated to accelerating the
transition to a clean, reliable, and efficient energy future.
Learn more about our work at raponline.org

3. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
• Brattle: “Utility sales could
nearly double by 2050”!
• Isn’t it all about load growth?
3
Isn’t all electrification created equal?

4. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 4
Beneficial Electrification (BE) -
Three Conditions
1. Saves Customers Money
Over Long-Term
2. Reduces Environmental
Impacts
3. Enables Better Grid
Management

5. 5
1. Saves
Customers Money
Long-Term

6. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 6
Efficiency Across Fuel Types
Source: JJ MCoy, ”Building “good load” to reduce carbon emissions”, 2016. http://nwenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Transpo-Electrification-TE-Workpaper-1-25-2016-FINAL.pdf.zip;
https://www.chargevc.org/ev-calculator/

7. 2. Reduces
Environmental
Impacts

8. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 8
Power sector fuel mix is changing:
Midcontinent ISO example
Source: http://www.misomatters.org/2017/03/3-electricity-industry-issues-we-are-watching-in-2017/

9. 3. Enables Better
Grid Management
GTM, How California Can Shape, Shift and Shimmy to Demand Response
Nirvana, January 26, 2017.
LBNL, California 2025 Demand Response Potential Study, 3/1/17.

10. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 10
Managing Load
• EVs can be a benefit …
or a problem for the
electric grid.
• Draw high amounts of
power for short periods
of time.

11. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Value of Flexibility for Integrating Renewable Energy
Avoid Home
Charging during
these hours
Workplace
EV Charging
33
Source: Used with permission of California Independent System Operator Corporation http://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_FastFacts.pdf, Fig. 2, p. 3

12. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 12
At Least, Avoid High-Cost Hours
Source: Rhode Island Power Sector Transformation, Phase One Report to Governor Gina M. Raimondo (November 2017)

13. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Pairing EV adoption and EV charging with
intelligent rate design can improve electric
distribution system utilization and create
downward pressure on rates through load
management and system peak reduction.
13
Managing Load
Public Service Commission of Maryland. (2019, January 14). Order No. 88997, In The Matter Of The Petition Of The Electric Vehicle Work Group For Implementation Of A Statewide
Electric Vehicle Portfolio, CASE NO. 9478, p. 43-44.

14. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Salt River Project’s Time of Use Rates

15. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 15
Beneficial Electrification (BE) -
Three Conditions
1. Saves Customers Money Over
Long-Term
2. Reduces Environmental
Impacts
3. Enables Better Grid
Management

16. 16

17. Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
 Roadmap for Electric Transportation
 Taking First Steps: Insights for States Preparing for Electric Transportation
 Beneficial Electrification: Ensuring Electrification in the Public Interest
 Beneficial Electrification of Transportation
 Getting From Here to There: Regulatory Considerations for Transportation Electrification
 Blog post: We All Wish We Were More Flexible: Electrification Load as a Grid Flexibility
Resource
Electrification: Some RAP Resources

18. The role of electrification in
energy scenarios
Focusing on buildings and transport
Towards net-zero emissions by 2050
Wouter Nijs, JRC.C7, Knowledge for the Energy Union
Electrification Academy
Leonardo Energy and the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), 25 November 2020

19. COM(2019) 640
European Green Deal

20. European Green Deal
COM(2020) 80 final
COM(2020) 562 final
“…a 2030 target of at least 55% net
greenhouse gas emissions reductions
compared to 1990…
”
“…supporting a cost-effective
transition to climate
neutrality by 2050…
”

21. EU’s pathway to reach climate neutrality in 2050
COM(2020) 562 final

22. +
Data behind the graphs, Towards net-zero emissions in the
EU energy system by 2050, JRC118592, licensed under CC
BY 4.0., © European Union, 1995-2020.

23. Similar reductions of fossil fuels across scenarios
reaching around -55% CO2 by 2030
Source: JRC
-70%
up to -25%
-25% to -50%

24. “Transport, buildings,
agriculture, non-ETS
industry and waste,
account for almost
60% of total domestic
EU emissions.”
Transport and buildings: a combined CO2
reduction of 39% compared to 2017
Ongoing work JRC
This graph is based on final energy consumption of the transport (excl. international aviation), residential and commercial sectors;
SWD(2020) 176 final shows Effort Sharing Regulation CO2 to be reduced by 39 to 40% compared to 2005, current scope.

25. • Based on JRC interpretation, 10-35% of the buildings replace their fossil
heating mainly by heat pumps and district heating
• 28-55% reduction in oil use in transport; an uptake of a vehicle stock that
consists of 30% to 50% of zero-emission or plug-in hybrid EV
• Installed capacity of variable renewables times 2 – 3
• A growth of wind power generation times 1.5 – 3.5
• A growth of solar power generation times 1.5 – 4.5
2030 scenario results imply a significant
step up of actions in all sectors

26. 2050 energy use in buildings: electricity meets
40-60% and ambient/distributed heat up to 50%

27. 2050 energy use in transport: ZEV 30-80% of
the energy but 65-90% of the total vehicle fleet

28. Electrification in all sectors, but not necessarily more
electricity in buildings and industry
Source: JRC

29. Renewables provide 75% to 100%
and there is undisputed growth of
wind and solar power. However
growth for each varies from a factor
3 to 13. Why ?
1. Energy efficiency - technical and
in the broader sense
2. The amount of hydrogen/e-fuel
versus CCUS deployment
Electricity generation up to 2050
from no growth up to an increase by a factor 3
Source: JRC

30. Direct electrification is only one side of the story
Industry
LDV
Cars
Buildings – H&C
Buildings - Appliances
LCEO Zero Carbon, Carlsson J. et al., Clean energy technologies synergies and issues, JRC119072 (EU27).

31. Indirect electrification could be the larger wave
IndirectDirect
LCEO Zero Carbon, Carlsson J. et al., Clean energy technologies synergies and issues, JRC119072 (EU27).
H2P2H – Losses
Carbon removal (DAC)
Industry
Aviation and navigation
Trucks & LDV

32. Indirect electrification could be the larger wave
+ Indirect = TotalDirect
LCEO Zero Carbon, Carlsson J. et al., Clean energy technologies synergies and issues, JRC119072 (EU27).
H2P2H – Losses
Carbon removal (DAC)
Industry
Aviation and navigation
Trucks & LDV
Cars
Buildings – H&C
Buildings - Appliances

33. Source: JRC

35. Thank you
© European Union 2020
Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the
EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.
wouter.nijs@ec.europa.eu
@wouternijs

36. EU Science Hub: ec.europa.eu/jrc
@EU_ScienceHub
EU Science Hub – Joint Research Centre
EU Science, Research and Innovation
Eu Science Hub
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