After 6 years of regular decrease, the energy consumption of transport in the EU has been rising again since 2013, at the same rate as before the financial crisis. It has become the most energy-consuming end-use sector, responsible for 31% of the final energy consumption in the EU27 in 2019. The energy transition in transport lags far behind the other sectors. However, some countries are performing better than others. During this webinar, our expert speakers present an evaluation of the energy efficiency trend in the European transport sector since 2000. The following key questions are addressed: What has been the overall trend in transport energy consumption in the EU and other European countries since 2000? What are the main drivers for the energy consumption variation in transport, and in particular for the energy savings? Recordings of the webinar: https://youtu.be/3TbePJCDvgE

1. Energy efficiency trends in transport in
the EU
March 30th, 2021
Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries - Enerdata
with Estelle Payan - Enerdata
Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiency
organised by Leonardo ENERGY

2. ▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE-MURE project,
that is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission.
The project is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and
Fraunhofer-ISI. www.odyssee-mure.eu
▪ The webinar relies on data and energy efficiency indicators prepared in the
framework of the project and disseminated in a database, called
ODYSSEE, and in 5 data tools.
▪ ODYSSEE covers 31 countries*. It is updated up to 2018 from national
sources and completed by Enerdata with early estimates for 2019**.
▪ EU corresponds to EU27 (i.e. without UK)
2
* 27 EU Member States + UK, Norway, Serbia and Switzerland
** See methodology at https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/other/early-estimates-
methodology.html
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
About

3. Outline
▪ Energy consumption and emission trends
▪ Energy efficiency trends
▪ Conclusions
3
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021

4. Energy consumption
and emissions trends
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021

5. • Increasing consumption since
2013 (1.4%/yr), following
the return to economic
growth, back to the trend
before the financial crisis.
• This follows a significant
decrease of 1.6%/yr over
2007-2013.
• Since 2013, transport energy
consumption increases 0.7
times less rapidly than GDP,
(almost as before 2007); this
implies a decrease of the
consumption per unit of GDP
by 0.6%/year.
Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 5
Transport energy consumption and GDP in EU27
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2000=100
Cons. GDP Cons./GDP
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2000-2007 2007-2013 2013-2019
%/year

6. • Since 2013, transport consumption remained stable in 4 EU
countries and decreased in Norway and Switzerland despite a
sustained economic growth (~2%/year).
• It increased much less rapidly than GDP in 15 other EU countries.
• In 4 eastern European countries, transport consumption has grown
almost twice faster than GDP.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 6
Source: ODYSSEE; 2013-2019
Transport energy consumption and GDP since 2013
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Norway
Switzerland
Finland
France
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
Belgium
Slovenia
Germany
Austria
Greece
Denmark
Cyprus
EU
Portugal
Estonia
Ireland
Spain
Croatia
Serbia
Czechia
Latvia
Slovakia
Romania
Bulgaria
Malta
Hungary
Lithuania
Poland
%/year
Consumption GDP
10%

7. Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 7
Source: ODYSSEE
Data on alternative fuel cars: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/market-diffusion.html
52% 53%
30%
31%
11%
10%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2019
Mtoe
Cars Trucks & LDV Other road Rail Water Air
42%
52%
2%2%2%
2000
23%
64%
6%
2%
2%
3%
2019
Gasoline Diesel
Biofuels Jet fuel
Electricity Other
Transport consumption by mode and by fuel in EU27
• The split of consumption by mode only changed
slightly between 2000 and 2019, with more than half
of transport consumption going to cars.
• The share of diesel has increased by 12 pts in the
energy mix until 2010, replacing gasoline, and is
stable since then. Biofuels reached a share of 6% in
2019. The share of electricity remained stable (2%).

8. Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 8
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Cars Trucks &
LDV
Other road Rail Water Air
(domestic)
%/year
2000-2007 2007-2013 2013-2019
Source: ODYSSEE
Transport consumption trends by mode in EU27
• Consumption of domestic air transport and cars is growing since
2013 much faster than before the financial crisis: 3 times faster
for air, 50% faster for cars (traffic growing twice faster).
• The consumption of trucks & LDV is however growing twice less
than before 2007, despite a similar economic growth, because of a
slower growth in traffic and number of LDV (70% slower for both).

9. • CO2 emissions follow the trends of consumption, with a decoupling
from 2004 to 2013, due to a regular decrease of the carbon emission
factor (tCO2/toe).
• Stagnation since then, as the share of non carbonated fuels (biofuels
and electricity) has stopped increasing; their share in total transport
consumption had increased from 2% in 2004 to 7% in 2013.
Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 9
Transport consumption and CO2 emissions in EU27
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2000=100
Cons. CO2 tCO2/toe
Only direct CO2 emissions, which do not include emissions due to electricity supply to electric vehicles

10. • Measures on new vehicles have been the main policy tool in transport:
EU standards & labels and national measures (fiscal and incentives).
• They focused on specific CO2 emissions in gCO2/km.
• At EU level, emissions of new cars fell by 16% between 2010 and 2016
but have increased since then mainly because of the larger share of SUV.
• Germany and The Netherlands are the main countries at the two extremes.
• The 2021 target will probably not be reached (95 gCO2/km) and the
targets for 2025 and 2030 remain ambitious.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 10
Source: ODYSSEE, from EEA (test values); see in Annex data by country
Measures in transport: CO2 emissions of new vehicles
Specific CO2 emissions of new cars
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Netherlands EU Germany
gCO2/km
2010
2016
2018
2019
Target 2021
Target 2025
Target 2030

11. Energy efficiency trends
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021

12. 12
• Energy efficiency is first assessed at the level of each mode and
types of vehicles with indicators of specific consumption measured
in different physical units, e.g. l/100 km, koe/km, koe/pkm,
koe/tkm* for freight, or for light duty vehicles.
• For cars different indicators can be used depending on the definition
of energy efficiency: for instance, their technical efficiency is better
captured by l/100 km, and their overall efficiency by koe/pkm*, that
includes the effect of change in load factor and fuel mix.
• For cars, l/100 km refer to test values for new vehicles and to
observed values under real conditions of use and real motor fuel
composition (share of biofuels not considered in the test).
• Trends for new cars are interesting to track as most measures to
improve the energy efficiency of cars address new vehicles.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
How is energy efficiency progress measured in ODYSSEE?
*koe= kilogram oil equivalent (1 koe = 10-3 toe)

13. Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 13
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
%/year
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
Energy efficiency of new cars (l/100 km)*
• The specific consumption of new diesel and gasoline cars has decreased
everywhere until 2014, and especially over 2007-2014.
• Since 2014, there is a reverse trend in most countries, and a net
slowdown in the others, due to two main factors: a decrease in
diesel shares (from 56% in 2012 to 34% in 2019 at EU level) and a
growing share of SUV (from 25 to ~40%).
Source: ODYSSEE from EEA data
*Test-cycle values for diesel and gasoline cars; only shown countries with data since 2000

14. Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 14
Technical efficiency of car stock twice slower
than for new cars at EU level
• The actual specific consumption of the stock of cars follows with a lag the
trend of new cars: since 2014, they continue decreasing, i.e. a trend quite
different as for new cars.
• Actual values reflect actual driving conditions, compared to test values for
new cars: a simulation of the test value of the stock of cars, taking into
account test values of new cars, estimates the gap between test and
actual values at around 10% in 2018 (green line) and this gap is growing.
Source: ODYSSEE from EEA data
Gap actual vs
test values
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Car stock (simulated, test values) Car stock (actual) New cars (test)
Specific consumption of diesel and gasoline cars (l/100 km)

15. How to assess the energy efficiency of cars?
• If we focus on overall efficiency (koe/pkm) (“preferred indicator” for EU
Commission), the progress has been low since 2014 (0.2%/yr) with
technical efficiency contributing for 0.4%/year, while the decrease in the
rate of occupancy of cars contributed to lower efficiency progress by
0.3%/year; the effect of change in fuel mix is limited.
• Before 2014, overall efficiency improvement was about the same, however
with more rapid technical improvements (0,8%/yr), partly offset by a
decrease in car occupancy and the effect of fuel mix.
Source: ODYSSEE, Enerdata 15
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
Factors of variation of the overall efficiency of cars (koe/pkm) (%/yr) (EU)
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
2000-2014 2014-2018
koe/pkm technical fuel mix load factor

16. Energy efficiency of car stock (koe/pkm)
• Energy efficiency improvements for cars at country level show contrasted
situations, with significant improvements over the whole period in some
countries (Greece, Italy or Ireland in the EU; Switzerland and Norway).
• Many countries have better results since 2014.
Source: ODYSSEE, Enerdata 16
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Greece
Switzerland
Italy
Ireland
Norway
Croatia
UK
Finland
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Denmark
France
Portugal
Austria
Estonia
EU
Germany
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Belgium
Slovenia
Hungary
Czechia
Latvia
Spain
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
%/year
2000-2019 2014-2019
7%

17. • In most countries the unit consumption of road freight transport
(including trucks and light duty vehicles) has decreased since 2000,
reflecting energy efficiency improvements.
• It has however increased in 7 countries.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 17
Energy efficiency of road freight transport (goe/tkm)
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Slovenia
Portugal
Spain
Germany
Hungary
France
Austria
Switzerland
EU
Slovakia
Norway
Netherlands
Denmark
Croatia
Greece
Belgium
Bulgaria
Estonia
UK
Cyprus
Finland
Ireland
Italy
Czechia
Luxembourg
%/year
2000-2019
Source: ODYSSEE

18. • From the different energy efficiency trends measured for each
transport mode, an energy efficiency index for the whole transport
sector is derived in ODYSSEE: it is called “ODEX”.
• ODEX is calculated:
o First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption by
mode, as seen before for cars and trucks, as an index of
variation;
o Then by calculating an average index for the sector weighted by
the share of each transport mode in the sector’s consumption.
• ODEX is calculated on the basis of 8 modes of transport*.
• Specific consumption are expressed in different physical units so as
to be as close as possible to energy efficiency (koe/pkm for cars,
buses and aviation, koe/tkm for trucks and water, koe/vehicle-km for
light duty vehicles, toe/vehicle for motorcycles, koe/tkbr for rail).
18
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
How to assess the overall energy efficiency of transport ?
* Cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, light vehicles, rail, water and domestic air.
For more information on ODEX: https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/archives/odex-indicators-
database-definition.html

19. • The energy efficiency of transport improved by 0.6%/year in the EU since
2000 (10% compared to 2000 level).
• Greater progress was achieved for domestic air transport.
• Energy efficiency progress had stopped for trucks and light vehicles
between 2008 and 2012 due to a less efficient operation of trucks (less
loaded and empty running) following the financial crisis but is back again.
• There is no more progress for cars since 2013.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 19
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2000=100
Total Cars Trucks & LDV Domestic air
Source: ODYSSEE; only most important modes shown
Energy efficiency trends in transport in the EU27

20. Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 20
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000-2007 2008-2013 2014-2019
Mtoe/year
Annual additional savings by mode
Cars Trucks & LDV Air Bus, rail, water
Source: ODYSSEE
• Energy efficiency progress has saved every year since 2000
an additional volume of around 1.5 Mtoe. Over 2008-2013, annual savings
reached 2.3 Mtoe/yr, twice more than since 2014.
• Cumulated since 2000, these savings reached 28 Mtoe in 2019 (i.e. 10% of
transport consumption): without these savings, transport consumption would
have been 10% higher.
• Trucks and LDV are over-represented, with half of total savings, i.e. a share
much higher than their share of consumption (31%). Conversely, savings of
cars are much lower than their share in consumption (26% vs 53%), which is
all the more surprising as most measures target cars (and also LDV).
Trends in energy savings by mode

21. • In 2019, total final energy savings reached 190 Mtoe in EU27.
• The share of transport in these savings was only 15%, a share more than
twice lower than its share in consumption (32%), due to much slower
energy efficiency progress than in other sectors.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 21
Source: ODYSSEE
Transport lags behind the other sectors in terms of
energy efficiency immurements
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mtoe
Energy savings by sector
Industry Transport Households Services
32%
15%
44%
9%
% in energy savings
28%
32%
26%
14%
% in final consumption
2019

22. • In 20 EU countries the share of rail and inland waterways has decreased
since 2000; the trend is in general slower since 2010.
• At EU level, decrease by 4 pts since 2000 (only 1 pts since 2010).
• A few countries have experienced a rapid shift from road to rail & water
since 2000, among which Italy (+19 pts; sea motorways), Finland, Spain
and Denmark (+3-4 pts) and, since 2010, Czech Rep (+7 pts).
• Latvia and the Netherlands are leading in terms of level with a share >
50%, (good quality rail lines to seaports combined with high maritime
traffic).
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 22
Source: ODYSSEE, Enerdata
Modal shift - Freight
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Latvia
Netherlands
Italy
Switzerland
Serbia
Sweden
Finland
Estonia
Romania
Czechia
Austria
Lithuania
Germany
EU
Hungary
Belgium
Croatia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Bulgaria
Poland
Norway
France
Denmark
UK
Portugal
Luxembourg
Greece
Ireland
Share of rail and inland waterways in freight traffic (%)
2000 2010 2018

23. • For most countries, no significant shift to public transport since 2010.
At EU level: stable share since 2010 and -1% pt before.
• Slovakia and the Netherlands increased the most the share of public
transport since 2010 (+4.5 pts).
• Czech Rep and Hungary have the highest share of public transport
(~35%), followed by Serbia, Slovakia and Austria (~25%).
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 23
Source: ODYSSEE-MURE, Enerdata
Modal shift - Passenger
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Czechia
Hungary
Serbia
Slovakia
Romania
Austria
Poland
Croatia
Estonia
Switzerland
Belgium
Cyprus
Italy
Ireland
EU
Sweden
Greece
France
Denmark
Bulgaria
Spain
Netherlands
Finland
Latvia
Germany
Luxembourg
UK
Portugal
Norway
Lithuania
Slovenia
Share of public transport in passenger traffic (%)
2000 2010 2018

24. 24
• Between 2000 and 2019, the increase in traffic (“activity”) contributed to raise
transport consumption by around 46 Mtoe.
• The increasing share of trucks in freight traffic and to a lower extent of cars in
passenger traffic (modal shift) also contributed to raise consumption (5 Mtoe).
• Energy savings offset around half of the activity and modal shift effects by
lowering the consumption increase to 28 Mtoe.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
8.5
22.4
3.3
-17.9
0.7
18.7
23.9
1.6
-10.0
3.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Consumption
variation
Activity Modal shift Savings Other
Mtoe
Freight Passenger
Drivers of transport consumption variation 2000-2019
Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool (https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html)

25. 25
Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool (https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html)
• Since 2014, the increase in traffic (“activity”) contributed to raise
final consumption by 23 Mtoe.
• Modal shift effect increased consumption by 1.8 Mtoe.
• As energy savings offset only a quarter of the activity effect
(6 Mtoe), the consumption increased by ~20 Mtoe.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021
7.7
10.1
1.1 -4.6 1.1
12.6
12.7
0.7
-1.3
0.6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Consumption
variation
Activity Modal shift Savings Other
Mtoe
Freight Passenger
Drivers of transport consumption variation 2014-2019

26. Conclusions
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 26

27. • Energy efficiency progress for new cars has slowed
down or even reversed stopped 2014, due to SUVs
and the lower share of diesel cars.
• Energy efficiency progress of the car’ stock is very
low in most countries, and far from the theoretical
performance of new vehicles (test vs real driving
conditions, increasing share of biofuels).
• Trucks and LDV have better results and represent
half of total energy savings in transport, i.e. much
more than their share of consumption (31%).
• Transport lagged behind the other sectors in terms
of energy efficiency improvements.
• The objective to raise the share of efficient mode of
transport (public vs cars for passenger or rail or
water vs trucks) is far from showing positive
developments, except in a very few countries.
• All these factors explains why the consumption,
and emission, are back since 2014 to their trend
before the financial crisis.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 27
Disappointing results in transport

28. www.enerdata.net
Thank you for your
attention !
Contact:
About Enerdata:
Enerdata is an energy
intelligence and consulting
company established in 1991.
Our experts will help you tackle
key energy and climate issues
and make sound strategic and
business decisions.
We provide research, solutions,
consulting and training to key
energy players worldwide.
Bruno Lapillonne,
Scientific director
bruno.lapillonne@enerdata.net
Laura Sudries,
Energy efficiency analyst
laura.sudries@enerdata.net
28
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021

29. Annex: Specific CO2 emissions
of new vehicles
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 29

30. • At EU level, emissions from new cars fell by 14% between 2010
and 2018 down to 120 gCO2/km, thanks to EU standards &
labels* and national measures (fiscal and incentives).
• At this rate, the 2021 target will not be reached (95 gCO2/km).
• The targets for 2025 (~81 gCO2/km) and 2030 (~59 gCO2/km)
remain ambitious.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 30
Source: ODYSSEE
* Responsible for at least 2/3 of the reduction since 2009 according to DG Clima
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Netherlands
Malta
Portugal
Denmark
Greece
France
Ireland
Croatia
Italy
Finland
Spain
Belgium
EU
Slovenia
Romania
Sweden
Austria
Cyprus
UK
Czechia
Slovakia
Poland
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Germany
Luxembourg
Estonia
gCO2/km
2010 2018 Target 2021 Target 2025 Target 2030
CO2 emissions of new cars (gCO2/km)

31. • At EU level, emissions from new vans fell by 11% between 2012
and 2019 down to 159 gCO2/km, thanks to European directives.
• At this rate, 2020 and 2025 targets will not be reached.
• In 2019, some countries had already reached the 2020 target.
Energy efficiency trends in transport – March 2021 31
Source: ODYSSEE, from EEA; targets: 147 gCO2/km for 2020; -15%*level 2021 for 2025
~ 125 gCO2/km; -31.5%*level 2021 for 2030~ 101 gCO2/km
CO2 emissions of new vans (gCO2/km)
100
120
140
160
180
200
Cyprus
Portugal
Malta
Croatia
Bulgaria
Spain
France
Netherlands
Norway
Denmark
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Estonia
Romania
EU
Hungary
Sweden
Luxembourg
Belgium
Latvia
UK
Finland
Slovenia
Poland
Austria
Czechia
Germany
Lithuania
Slovakia
gCO2/km
2012 2019 Target 2020 Target 2025