Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

The world after Covid – How have behavioural changes affected energy demand and what does this mean for the future?

With lockdowns and restrictions on movement changing the way we travel, work and entertain ourselves, the Covid-19 crisis has had dramatic impacts on the energy system: In 2020 the IEA estimates primary energy demand fell by around 5%.

What, if anything, do these changes this mean for future energy demand? Could any of these be permanent or will we soon see a ‘rebound’ in energy demand as people revert to business as usual?
To discuss these questions and more, Users TCP, in collaboration with the European Copper Institute, is hosting an interactive webinar.
Jeremy Sung will present the IEA’s latest analysis on Covid-19 related behaviour changes from two IEA reports: Energy Efficiency 2020 and the World Energy Outlook 2020.

Following this, David Shipworth, Chair of the Users TCP, will host a discussion with Linda Steg from the University of Groningen, Netherlands, covering topics such as if changes observed in 2020 could comprise a ‘new normal’, which changes might be more preferable than others, and what the policy implications might be. Audience members will also be invited to submit questions for discussion.

  • Be the first to comment

The world after Covid – How have behavioural changes affected energy demand and what does this mean for the future?

  1. 1. Page 1 Energy Efficiency 2020 and WEO 2020 Behaviour changes and energy demand Paris, 10 February 2021 Jeremy Sung
  2. 2. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 2 To read more… www.iea.org
  3. 3. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 3 Impacts of Covid-19 on energy demand Oil has been the fuel most affected by the Covid-19 crisis; the pandemic erased almost a decade of growth in oil demand in a single year Change in primary energy demand in 2020 -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Renewables Total energy demand
  4. 4. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 4 Efficiency progress, already weakened, faces setbacks from the pandemic To meet global climate goals, energy intensity needs to improve by at least 3 to 4% per year. Primary energy intensity improvement rate, 2015 - 2020 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual change
  5. 5. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 5 Behaviour is one of several factors affecting energy intensity Changes to investment in efficient technologies Structural shifts in the economy Changes to energy using behaviours Some behaviours have been more energy intensive, while others have been less energy intensive
  6. 6. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 6 People are spending more time at home… In some countries, where the pandemic is largely under control, visits to workplaces have remained lower Changes to average time spent at home (left) and visits to workplaces (right), Feb-Oct 2020 0 5 10 15 20 25 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct % change compared with baseline Average time spent at home - 45 - 40 - 35 - 30 - 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Average visits to workplaces
  7. 7. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 7 People are using more energy in the home and at different times People have been doing more energy using activities on weekdays Changes in energy usage for one utility in the Netherlands, lockdown period compared with pre-lockdown period -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Weekdays Weekends Source: Quby (2020), What self-quarantine does to household energy usage: while others guess, Quby measures.
  8. 8. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 8 People are using less energy in commercial buildings Commercial buildings that have remained open tend to be more energy intensive Reduction in energy demand under stay-at-home orders and average energy intensity by building type, in two United States regions 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Energy intensity (kWh/m2) Reduction in energy demand Mean demand reduction Energy intensity (kWh/m2)
  9. 9. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 9 People are shifting from public to private transport modes In many countries, public transport use has plummeted by 40% on normal levels, while car use, walking and cycling are less affected, and sometimes higher than usual. Average working week transport trip requests by mode (average of all weeks,13 Jan to 31 Oct 2020 inclusive), compared with baseline Note: Baseline is average over the working week beginning 13 January. A trip request is a request for routing directions made via the Apple Maps smartphone application. - 50 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 10 20 United States Brazil Mexico Spain United Kingdom Italy Germany Japan Index (Week of 13 Jan) Driving Public transport Walking
  10. 10. Page 10 IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Future scenarios for behaviour change and energy demand
  11. 11. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 11 Under current policies, behaviour is unlikely to have large net impacts While some behaviours are expected to lower demand, others are expected to increase demand, resulting in a small net impact, compared with other changes to the energy system Impacts of behaviour changes in transport oil demand and drivers of changes in the STEPS, 2019-2030 SUVisation Low fleet turnover Less public transport Fewer flights Teleworking Deferred car sales Net change -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 mb/d 5 10 15 20 Growth Behaviour Fuel efficiency Activity Fuel switching mb/d
  12. 12. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 12 But behaviour changes will be needed to meet Paris goals and beyond An unparalleled transformation of the energy sector and major behaviour changes in the next ten years would be needed to achieve global net-zero emissions by 2050 Energy and industrial process CO2 emissions and reduction levers in the scenarios 15 20 25 30 35 40 2015 2020e 2025 2030 GtCO2 Power End-use Behaviour STEPS NZE2050 SDS
  13. 13. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 13 Would changing air temperatures at home mitigate climate change? Emission savings from moderating the use of space heating and space cooling are substantial, but fall over time as the emissions intensity decreases Impact on CO2 emissions from reducing space heating temperature settings by 3 °C in the NZE2050 2020 2025 2030 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 Mt CO2 Europe North America Russia China Other SDS STEPS Residential heating
  14. 14. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 14 Would changing air temperatures at home mitigate climate change? Emission savings from moderating the use of space heating and space cooling are substantial, but fall over time as the emissions intensity decreases 2020 2025 2030 Mt CO2 Europe North America Russia China Other SDS STEPS 200 300 400 500 600 700 Residential cooling Impact on CO2 emissions from increasing space cooling temperature settings by 3 °C in the NZE2050
  15. 15. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 15 Cycling or walking short car journeys More than 7% of total CO2 emissions from cars are from trips which could be cycled in less than 10 minutes 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Cumulative share Trips CO2 emissions Trip length in km 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Cycle time in minutes <10 minutes cycling time 7.5% Cycling “like the Dutch” 5%
  16. 16. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 16 Emissions reductions from behaviour changes Some changes in behaviour could happen straight away; others would need to be guided by policy, supported by infrastructure, and would ramp up over time. Impact of behaviour changes on CO2 emissions in the NZE2050 -2 000 -1 500 -1 000 - 500 2021 2025 2030 Mt CO2 Reduce domestic heating by 3°C Reduce domestic cooling by 3°C Cycle/walk trips <10 min cycle time Line-drying instead of tumble-drying Reduce laundry temperature by 10°C Replace all flights <1h Reduce driving speed by 7 km/h Adopt eco-driving practices Ride-share all urban trips Reduce mobile air conditioning by 3 °C Work from home 3 days a week Road transport Aviation Residential Cut ¾ of business flights Cut ¾ long-haul leisure flights
  17. 17. IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 17

×