SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 203
Download to read offline
Course Introduction:
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
“Thirty years from now the big university
campuses will be relics.”
- Peter Drucker, 1997
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run.”
- Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)
“In 15 years from now half of US
universities may be in bankruptcy.”
- Clayton Christensen, 2013
Image Source: Wikimedia
Who This Course is For
 Faculty, staff, students and administration at educational
institutions wanting to understand and adapt to the changes to
their industry
 Innovators with an interest in education
 Anyone that wants to know how to prepare for the economy of
the future
What: Course Objectives
 Understand the latest concepts driving change in higher education
 Develop strategy for higher education using key concepts of
disruptive innovation and other topics
 Use the material from this course to become a change agent to
bring innovation to their institution
 Use the material from this course in a "flipped classroom"
discussion among students or leaders at your institution
What: Course Outline
1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education
2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher
Education
3. Economics of Traditional Online Education
4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms
5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education
6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty
7. Lean Startup for Education
8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis
9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education
10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
How to Use this Course
 Individually
◦ Download to mobile through Udemy or iTunesU or use YouTube Playlist
◦ Listen while exercising or commuting
◦ Go deep with supplemental videos and bibliography
 Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups
◦ Listen to talks in advance
◦ For your students
◦ For leaders and change agents at your institutions
◦ Invite me to Skype in for discussion
 Give feedback in discussion forum
◦ Two way Diffusion of Innovation: Bibliography suggestions, new initiatives
How: Media Formats & Links
 Udemy
◦ https://goo.gl/ixlBwn
 iTunes University
◦ https://goo.gl/9pGDAt
 YouTube (videos only)
◦ https://goo.gl/B8kkD2
 Slideshare (slides & video only)
“Human history becomes more
and more a race between
education and catastrophe.”
- H.G. Wells
Image from Wikipedia
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Applied to Higher Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Key Concepts of Disruptive Innovation
 Disruptive Innovation
◦ Definition: process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple
applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up
market, eventually displacing established competitors.
◦ Often combines off-the-shelf components in new, simpler ways
◦ Tend to be produced by new entrants
 Sustaining innovations tend to be dominated by incumbents
 Low-end disruption serves current market with a good enough
product
 New-market disruption expands market with better price &
access
Source: Christensen, Clayton. (n.d.). Disruptive Innovation. Retrieved from http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/
Cell Phones in 1983
Smartphones: Disruptive Technology
Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free
Press. p. 289
“People with a smartphone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”
PCs
Mobile
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Mainframes
10 x
More
Users
1/10th
Cost
Traditional
Higher
Education
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
Disruptive Innovation Education
for Emerging Markets
Traditional
Online Education
10 x
More
Students
1/10th
Cost
For Profit
Higher
Education
Community
College
Traditional Higher
Ed in Emerging Markets
Global Courseware
Tech Platforms
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Image Source: Wikimedia
Online education is here
Current Stage
of Online Education
LMS Stage Courseware Platform Stage
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees
US
Average
Global
Average
Top
Income
Quartile
3rd
Income
Quartile
1st & 2nd
Income
Quartile
1: Traditional
Higher Education
2: Traditional
Online Education
3: Courseware Platforms
& Emerging Markets
Mac
iPod
iPhone
Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
Environmentally Adaptive
“The Is” or Likely Future
Internally Driven
“The Ought” or Preferred Future
Past Future
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission
orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN.
http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
My Primary Expertise
Your Understanding
Dialogue
A Framework for Discussion
“The Is vs. The Ought”
Understanding What’s Driving Change
in Traditional Higher Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
1: Traditional
Higher Education
2: Traditional
Online Education
3: Courseware Platforms
& Emerging Markets
Mac
iPod
iPhone
Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
Increasing Cost of Higher Education Historically
Future Forecast for Private Education Demonstrate Unsustainability
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
7.2% Annual
Tuition Increase
5% Annual
Tuition Increase
2% CPI/Inflation
Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $145,200/year
Inflation Adjusted Tuition
= $68,829/year
7.2% annual tuition increase is CCCU average since 2001
Tuition
The Blame Game It’s the
Faculty’s
Fault!
It’s the
Administration's
Fault!
Wait. It’s the
students’ fault!
The Answer is… Yes
Baumol’s Cost Disease: Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor
Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ;
New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies
Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from
http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1
Increased
Productivity in
Other Sectors
Increased Cost of
High Skilled Labor =
Increased Costs of
Faculty & Senior
Administration
Increased
• standardized tests
• large lectures
• teaching
assistants
• administrative staff
• adjuncts
• underpaid faculty
Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1
Baumol’s Cost Disease
Economics of Superstars
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ;
New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000.
Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2
Decreasing Gov’t
Funding of Higher
Education
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ;
New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Creates Prisoners Dilemma / arms race of
increasing expenses to attract full-pay students.
Market Changes & Porter’s Five Forces Model
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Buyer
Power
Threat of
Substitut
es
Supplier
Power
Decreased by:
• Faculty overcapacity
• “Uberization” of adjuncts
• Unbundling components
• Commoditized content & OER
Increased for:
• Faculty superstars
Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:
• Online, blended & CBE degrees
• Non-degree programs
• Employer analytics
• Overcapacity
• Consolidation
Dramatically Increased by:
• National competition online
• Global competition
• For-profit & mega-universities
Increased by:
• Standardization
• Unbundling degrees
Sustaining Innovation Recommendations
1. Out-market using analytics:
◦ “Moneyball” model (Race with the Machine by developing tech
marketing core competency)
◦ Models: Arizona State, Liberty, George Fox
2. Enhance value using innovation, technology & blended
learning
3. Cut costs
4. Provide a more granular approach to balanced P&L by
division
5. Move “up market” into graduate education
6. Expand other revenue streams
◦ Health care, grow endowment, etc.
Market Dynamics
of Traditional Online Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Economics of Online Education
1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students) is
likely between $500-3,000/year
2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography
3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be
visible (20-30% of revenue)
4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation
13% of students are online only
9% are in for-profit institutions
Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Ambient Insight
• Higher education overall: about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.
• Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market.
Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from
http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/
Online Education = Consolidation
Online likely to sustain 1/10 of current schools
Understanding the For-Profit
Education Business Model
Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from
http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf and http://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf
Marketing
$3,389 35%
Profit $1,848
19%
Instruction
$2,177
22%
Other $2,295
24%
For-Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon)
Private Nonprofit: 32%
Comparing Business Models
Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for
College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf
For-Profit Private
Nonprofit
Public
Revenue/Student $11,130 $37,869 $18,922
Instruction 26% budget 33% budget 28% budget
Research 0% budget 12.5% budget 14% budget
Recommendations for Online Education
1. Invest in marketing
◦ Facilities expense is replaced by marketing expense
(rent paid to tech ecosystems to be visible = 20-30% revenue)
2. Create an independent skunkworks division
◦ “New wine in new wineskins”
◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where to focus
3. Scale to reduce costs
◦ Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students)
is likely between $500-3,000/year
Disruptive Innovation in Education for
Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
1: Traditional
Higher Education
2: Traditional
Online Education
3: Courseware Platforms
& Emerging Markets
Mac
iPod
iPhone
Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
Global Opportunity
100 Million
Students
in 2000
263 Million
Students
in 2025
(84% of growth in
the developing world)
Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers,
(2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
New Map of the World
Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) Innovation Principles
 Price Performance
 Innovation: Hybrids
 Scale of Operations
 Sustainable Development: Eco-Friendly
 Identifying Functionality
 Process Innovation
 Deskilling Of Work
 Education Of Customers
 Designing for Hostile Infrastructure
 Interfaces
 Distribution: Accessing the Customer
 BOP markets essentially allow us to challenge the conventional wisdom in delivery of
products and services
Potential Scenario: 2035-2050
 Global Scenario
◦ 10 times growth in tertiary education globally
◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries
◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are nearly free
 US Scenario
◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state schools are
likely to compete in a non-subsidized competitive market
◦ Private schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public higher
education
◦ Private higher education experiences major consolidation
◦ Private schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech platforms (like
LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft)
◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost providers
Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Ambient Insight
Future of Higher Education 2035
 Tier 1: The Elite
◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars)
◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist, Organic Farming, Luxury Watches
 Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost
◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch
◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies
 Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost
◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year
◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce
 Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses
◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services, videos, etc.
◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers
 Tier 5: Courseware platforms
◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
How to Survive the Coming Storm:
Lessons from Industry Case Studies
1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale.
◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming
2. Offer both/and products to compete.
◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix
3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths.
◦ Journalism & News: New York Times
4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth.
◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Recommendations for Emerging Markets
1. Create an emerging markets skunkworks division within your
online skunkworks division
◦ i.e. College for America, City Vision University, Low-Cost Vocational Qualification
Providers
2. Start with a price that emerging market customers can afford,
then design around that. Price near marginal cost.
3. Use automation, unbundling and scale from emerging markets to
reduce cost in traditional online education.
4. Design for mobile first for content delivery.
5. Disrupt yourself, at lowest levels, but use marketing and pricing
mechanisms to limit cannibalization of your higher priced
products.
6. Use lean startup methods with technology as core competency.
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education (full course slides)
City Vision Growth Vision & Decreasing Costs
250 750
2,000
4,000
8,000
16,000
32,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,750
$1,500
$1,000
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Students
MarginalCostPerStudent
Students
Marginal Cost Per Student
Pricing would be above marginal cost.
Unbundling and Rebundling
Strategies in Higher Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time
Image Source: Wikimedia
Unbundling in the Computer Industry
Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove
Other Examples
• Netflix vs. Cable TV
• iTunes vs. Albums
• Online news vs. Newspapers
Components
Packaged
in a Traditional
Degree
Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute,
August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf
and http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/
(Affective)
(Cognitive)
(Psychomotor)
(Metacognition)
Darker blue represents components
that are the easiest to automate/disrupt.
University
Virtually Integrated University
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience
Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University
University
Unbundled University
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience Univ.
Boot Camps
& Accelerators
Open
Education
Vocational &
Trade Schools
Industry
Certifications
Boot Camps &
Accelerators
Staffing
Agencies
MOOCs
& Apps
Univ.
Univ.
Gap Year Service Learning
Study
Abroad
Univ.
Paid
Courseware
CBE/Prior
Learning
Community
College
Internships
& Externships
Alternative
Credentials
Religious
Service
University
Employer
Networks
Alternative
Ed Providers
Independent
Projects
University Unbundled Competitors to Universities
Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits)
to consumer surplus (student benefits)
Rebundling Examples: Western Governors University
Western Governors’ Rebundled Program
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience
Course Mentors
(SME)
Credit by Exam &
Prior Learning
Degree
Paid
Courseware
Credit by Exam or
Competency Evaluation
Documented
Competencies
Industry
Certifications
No Offering
Student
Mentors
Evaluators
Program
Faculty
Practicum
Rebundling Example: LinkedIn
LinkedIn Rebundled Program
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience
Job Placement Service & Coaching
Lynda.com
Competenc
y
Profile
Employer
Analytics
Third Party
Badging
Industry
Certifications
Employment
Social Network
Testing
Services
Universities
No Offering
Rebundling Example: Code Academies
Code Academies’ Rebundled Program
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience
Mentored Project-Based Learning
Most Current, Highest Demand Content
from Top Practitioners
Relationships
to Employer
Employment
Guarantees
Brand for Recruiting
Raw Brainpower
No Offering
Rebundling Examples: Vocational Qualifications
Vocational Qualifications
Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.)
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience No Offering
Level
3
Level
4
Top-up Bachelor’s
Degree
Level
8
Level
5
Level
7
Master’s
Prior Learning
Assessment
Doctorate
Vocational
Learning Centers
Internships
& Externships
Employer
Networks
Industry
Certifications
On-the-job
Training
Becoming
Commoditized
• Freshman
• Sophomore
• High School
Core Competency
• Grad School
• Senior
• Junior
Strategy:MigrateUp
Race with the machine not against the machine
Strategy
Accelerated education
with automation
Strategy
Double Down
Unbundle/Outsource Lower Tiers of Bloom’s Taxonomy
Bloom’sTaxonomyLevel
Low
Level
Bloom’s
High
Level
Bloom’s
Subjectivity of Assessment
Objective
Assessments
Subjective
Assessments
Most Subject to
Commoditization
& Automation
Most Dependent
on People
Unbundling and the
Changing Role of Faculty
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Market and Technology Drivers for
Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Buyer
Power
Threat of
Substitut
es
Supplier
Power
Decreased by:
• Faculty overcapacity
• “Uberization” of Adjuncts
• Unbundling components
• Commoditized content & OER
Increased for:
• Faculty superstars
Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:
• Online, blended & CBE degrees
• Non-degree programs
• Employer analytics
• Overcapacity
• Consolidation
Dramatically Increased by:
• National competition online
• Global competition
• For profit & mega-universities
Increased by:
• Standardization
• Unbundling degrees
Market and Technology Drivers for
Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Students
Threat of
Substitut
es
Faculty
Technology
Technology
OuchOuch
Unbundling and Deskilling Faculty:
Western Governors’ Model
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience
Credit by Exam &
Prior Learning
Degree
Paid
Courseware
Credit by Exam or
Competency Evaluation
CBE
Industry
Certifications
Student
Mentors
Evaluators
Program
Faculty (ID)
Requires critical new skills in tech
& instructional design.
More scalable than department
chair structure.
Deskilled position
with relational
core competency
Core competency
of faculty becomes
standardized,
commoditized &
requires new skills
in online teaching
Lecture & much of content development is outsourced
as course content market becomes like book market
University of Phoenix Employs 29 Instructors to
1 Course Designer(1)
Sources: About Western Governors University | WGU Faculty. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2016, from http://www.wgu.edu/about_WGU/wgu_faculty
(1) American Higher Education in Crisis?: What Everyone Needs to Know®. (2014) (1 edition). Oxford ; New York: Oxford University Press.
Course Mentors
(SME)
Porter’s Five Forces Model for Faculty
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Buyer
Power
Threat of
Substitut
es
Supplier
Power
• Commoditized Content
• OER & MOOCs
• Paid Courseware
• Student Mentors
• Instructional Designers
• Overcapacity
• Decreasing Wages
Increasing Unemployment
Dramatically Increased by:
• Distance independence of online faculty
• Global market for faculty
• Pre-packaged course publishers
• Glut of graduate education in some fields
Dramatically
Increased by:
• Standardization
• Unbundling faculty
• Online content
Decreased by:
• Open content
• Better research tools
• Increased access to published research
Improving Faculty Productivity through Automation
Automation and Hollowing Out of the Middle:
In the Future Faculty Will Either be a Superstar or a Factory Worker
Source: Financial Times Graphic. Smith, Y. (2015, December 10). Demise of the US Middle Class Now Official.
Retrieved from http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/12/demise-of-the-us-middle-class-now-official.html
Case Study Examples
Journalism
jobs are down 42% from their peak
Sources (listed above or Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from
http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/
1. How to justly serve faculty facing declining economic prospects?
2. Will much of faculty research go the way of investigative journalism?
Equipping Faculty Entrepreneurs
Retraining for a Reimagined Role of Faculty
 Case Studies:
◦ Farming, manufacturing, music industry, journalism, TED
 Find Research Funding or Find your “TED Talk”
◦ Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”
 Growth of Faculty Entrepreneurs will follow growth of entrepreneurship in
other sectors
 Faculty need to establish a platform across multi-format and multi-channel
revenue sources
◦ Spread ideas horizontally across different media and markets
◦ Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, podcasts, YouTube, etc.
◦ University is one of many channels
Information-Based Business Models
Cost Minimization/
Benefit Acquisition
Public Domain Intrafirm Barter/Sharing
Rights-based
exclusion
(make money by exercising
exclusive rights—licensing or
blocking competition)
Romantic Maximizers
(authors, composers; sell to publishers; sometimes sell
to Mickeys).
Faculty: Commercial
Publishing. Self-publishing.
Mickey
(Disney reuses inventory for derivative works; buy
outputs of Romantic Maximizers).
Faculty course
development. Paid
MOOCs.
RCA
(small number of companies hold blocking
patents; they create patent pools to build
valuable goods).
Faculty: Patents.
Nonexclusion
Market
(make money from information
production but not by exercising
the exclusive rights)
Scholarly Lawyers
(write articles to get clients; other examples include
bands that give music out for free as advertisements for
touring and charge money for performance; software
developers who develop software and make money
from customizing it to a particular client, on-site
management, advice and training, not from licensing).
Faculty Self-Publishing for
their Personal Consulting
Business
Know-How
(firms that have cheaper or better production
processes because of their research, lower their
costs or improve the quality of other goods or
services; lawyer offices that build on existing
forms).
Faculty University
Community; Contracting
for Consulting Firms
Learning Networks
(share information with similar organizations—
make money from early access to information.
For example, newspapers join together to
create a wire service; firms where engineers
and scientists from different firms attend
professional societies to diffuse knowledge).
Research Consortiums.
Academic Societies.
Nonexclusion-
Nonmarket
Joe Einstein
(give away information for free in return for status,
benefits to reputation, value of the innovation to
themselves; wide range of motivations. Includes
members of amateur choirs who perform for free,
academics who write articles for fame, people who write
opeds, contribute to mailing lists; many free software
developers and free software generally for most uses)
Faculty Academic Publishing.
Blogging. Free self-publishing.
Podcasts. Open Education &
Content. YouTube. Free MOOCs.
Los Alamos
(share in-house information, rely on in-house
inputs to produce valuable public goods used to
secure additional government funding and status).
University Research Labs.
Nonprofit or Corporate
Research Labs.
Limited sharing
networks
(release paper to small number of colleagues
to get comments so you can improve it before
publication. Make use of time delay to gain
relative advantage later on using Joe Einstein
strategy. Share one’s information on formal
condition of reciprocity: like “copyleft”
conditions on derivative works for distribution)
Informal Peer Review
Networks
Benkler, Y. (2007). The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom. Yale University Press. pp 43
Tech as a Core Competency of Faculty
 Just as in other professions in the future, faculty without tech as a
core competency will not be competitive
◦ Instructional design
◦ Online research and content curation
◦ Online publishing: Blogging, podcasting, YouTube, social media, etc.
◦ If you are faculty under age of 55, this will be essential
 Strongest demand will be for faculty that cross extreme
technology fluency with their field
◦ i.e. Bioinformatics, Big Data/Analytics + Your Field
Conclusion
 Role of the university is to enable the faculty’s success in a market
where the university will only be one revenue channel for most
faculty
 Labor laws will need to adjust for blurring line between contractor
and full-time employee
 Some faculty will need to be retrained for other employment
 Millennials are more likely to adjust to a faculty/entrepreneur
market as 60% of millennials consider themselves entrepreneurs
The Power of Millennial Entrepreneurship. (n.d.). Retrieved January 12, 2016, from
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/britt-hysen/the-power-of-millennial-e_b_5801322.html
Lean Startup
for Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Backwards (Waterfall) Program Design
Audience is Traditional Students
Outcomes for Well-Defined Fields
Assessments Based on Known Outcomes
Instruction with Known Content Available
Feedback
Iteration
Is Years
Best Development Methodology
Changes Based on Environment
Development Methodology We know what customers
want
We know how to deliver it
Waterfall √ √
Agile √ ?
Lean Startup ? ?
Problem Solution
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
Waterfall vs. Agile vs. Lean Design
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
(Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)
Lean Startup Process
Build
MeasureLearn
Product
(start with minimum viable product)
Data
Pivot
Maximize
Loop
Iteration
Speed
Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous
Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
How Do You Reach 6 Billion People without Access to Higher Education?
Design for 4 Interrelated Uncertainties
Changing
Students
Changing
Goals
Affordable
Content
Availability
Costs
Different students based on different
goals, content and costs.
$1,000 degree vs. $10k degree
What goals are realistic
given the students,
costs and content?
Different costs, goals and students
will present different content options +
content & platforms are rapidly changing.
Different content availability,
goals and students will allow
radically different costs.
Demographic and Economic
Trend Analysis for Higher Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Demographic Shifts in the US:
The End of the Good Times
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES
2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Change High School Graduate by State
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES
2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES
2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Global Education Statistics
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Changing global postsecondary/
tertiary student demographics
>75%
from low or
mid-income
countries
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
28M
177M
>250M
Enrolled tertiary students
Increasing
ratio of woman to men
in higher education
Source: UNESCO via http://www.slideshare.net/BlackboardInc/todays-students-need-more-than-an-lms
Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the
South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from
http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf
Global Projection on Tertiary Education
(baseline and optimistic)
Global Projection on Tertiary Education
(four scenerios)
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04).
Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
Growth of Private Education Globally
 Private education globally has a growing market share for
decades: now at 30% of global market
 Regions with highest private education
◦ >70% private: Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Korea
◦ About 20-30%: South Asia, Latin America, Africa
◦ <15% private: China, Southeast Asia, New Zealand
Source: Private Higher Education: A Global Revolution. (2005). Rotterdam: Sense Publishers.
Source: "U.S. Federal Spending-Share of Mandatory vs. Discretionary Spending" by Farcaster - Time series chart created from CBO data plus author computations. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png#/media/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png
Expenditures in the United States federal budget. (2016, January 25). In Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved from
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Expenditures_in_the_United_States_federal_budget&oldid=701618119
Summary of Key Trends
Traditional
Higher
Education
Nontraditional
Students
Emerging
Markets
Private
Education
Technology
College Access, the Opportunity Divide & the
Race between Technology and Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Three Waves of History
Agricultural Industrial
Informatio
n
Primary/Secondary School Higher Education
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education (full course slides)
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education (full course slides)
Decline of Farm Jobs
Source: ong depression – azizonomics. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://azizonomics.com/tag/long-depression/
20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)
47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated
away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)
Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2014). Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in the United States (DISCONTINUED). Retrieved November 21,
2014, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USAPEFANA/
21st Century Challenge: College Graduation
Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
“Human history becomes more
and more a race between
education and catastrophe.”
- H.G. Wells
Image from Wikipedia
Who is Winning the Race Between Education & Technology?
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
1915-1980 1980-2005
AnnualGrowth
Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring Degrees
Education > Tech Job Loss
Education
Winning
Technology
Winning
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity,
and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
Changing our Educational Trajectory
Source: Lumina Foundation Vision
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2093
Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)
Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century
Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education
Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/
College Access Focus: the Bottom Half
37 pt. growth
3 pt. growth
6 pt. growth
19 pt. growth
Traditional
College
Focus
Disruptive
Innovation
Opportunity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile
(Disruptive
Innovation
Opportunity)
Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Line Projection
No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles
Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile
Source: Percentage of Students Entering and Completing College, and College Persistence, by Income Quartile | Russell Sage Foundation. (n.d.).
Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom
The Problem with Credentialism and Educational Inflation
The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more
than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the
gap has recently been around $2,000.
Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_inflation and College May Not Pay Off for Everyone Liberty Street Economics. (n.d.).
Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VqfMe9Q4G72
Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by
Level of Household Net Worth
Source: Three Signs That Young Americans Are Getting a Raw Deal | BillMoyers.com. (n.d.).
Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://billmoyers.com/2015/02/24/three-signs-young-americans-getting-raw-deal/
Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree
Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on
Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018
The Opportunity Divide:
Mismatch of Jobs & Education
Jobs in
2018
People in
2012 Difference
Less than High
School 10% 12.42% -2.4%
High School
Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7%
Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0%
Associate’s
Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6%
Bachelor’s Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5%
Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on
Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees
US
Average
Global
Average
Top
Income
Quartile
3rd
Income
Quartile
1st & 2nd
Income
Quartile
Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
“Thirty years from now the big university
campuses will be relics.”
- Peter Drucker, 1997
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run.”
- Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)
“In 15 years from now half of US
universities may be in bankruptcy.”
- Clayton Christensen, 2013
Image Source: Wikimedia
What Change Agents & Innovators Should Avoid
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Image Source: Wikimedia
We are here
Proven Data Theoretical Projection
What Skeptics of Disruptive Innovation Should Avoid
Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
Change
Agent
Change
Agency
Your
Institution
Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
Sequence of Change Agent Roles
1. To help clients see a need for change
2. To establish an information exchange relationship
3. To diagnose problems
4. To create an intent to change in the client
5. To translate intentions into action
6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance
7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients
Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
Determinants of Success of Change Agents
1. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting clients
2. A client orientation rather than a change agency orientation
3. The degree to which the diffusion program is compatible with
clients’ needs
4. The change agent’s empathy with clients
5. His or her homophily with clients
6. Credibility in the clients’ eyes
7. The extent to which he or she works through opinion leaders
8. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovations
Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
Environmentally Adaptive
“The Is” or Likely Future
Internally Driven
“The Ought” or Preferred Future
Past Future
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission
orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN.
http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
My Primary Expertise
(change agency)
Your Understanding
(change agent)
Dialogue
A Framework for Discussion
“The Is vs. The Ought”
Constraints on Innovation
 Debt/Lack of capital
 Current cost structure
 Commitment to faculty
 Physical plant/sunk cost
 Political realities
 Lack of core competency in innovation
 Missional constraints
 Outdated underlying worldview/myths
Mechanisms of Diffusion of Innovation
 Online Courses (this course)
 Conferences, workshops, webinars
 Formal education: degrees, courses, lectures
 Media: books, videos, websites, magazines, software, open
resources
 Employment: Staff training
 Networks: Professional networks & associations, networks of
peers
 Programs, products and their replication
 Personal: Consulting, word of mouth
 Publications: Open source software/open contentWho are the leaders in innovation?
Methods
Market
Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market
Mission
Mission Does Not Change!
(unless your mission is
defined by methods & and market)
How do you define your mission?
“We are the best plowmen in farming”
Source: File:Winslow Homer - The Plowman (1878).jpg - Wikimedia Commons. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winslow_Homer_-_The_Plowman_(1878).jpg
1. BOP Strategies
2. Unbundling
3. Cradle to grave education ecosystem
4. Education on demand (Race with the machine)
1. Economics of Online Education
2. Mega-Universities
3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts
4. Increasing Costs
Sustainability Challenges to
Higher Education in the USA
(paradigms)
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do
adaptive initiatives erode Christian
colleges’ strong mission orientation.
Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson
University, Anderson, IN.
http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
Environmental
(adaptive)
vs.
Internally-Driven
(interpretive)
Strategy
Using this Course for Discussion Groups
1. Identify those with the power to bring change
2. Have them review this course and other helpful material
3. Organize a discussion group on implications for your institution
4. Develop a strategy to move toward change
5. Develop experiments to move toward change
As educators the primary thing we can do is to
educate those who have the power to bring change.
Case Study Lessons for Faculty and
Higher Education Institutions
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Effect of the Long Tail: 80/20 Rule
Becomes the 60/40 Rule
80% of profit comes
from 20% of products
60% of profit comes
from 40% of products
Effects of the Long Tail & Higher Education
 Long Tail Increases Diversity of Content
◦ Blockbuster Video: 80% of rentals are recent “blockbusters,” only carries 75
documentaries
◦ Netflix: 30% of rentals are “blockbusters” and carries 1,180 documentaries
◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000)
 Long Tail of Search Terms (TechMission Websites)
◦ Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors
◦ 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors
 Long Tail’s Implications for Diversity and College Access
◦ Non-Western culture voices are almost entirely on the long tail.
◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by big media and
traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western
voices.
◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.
The Chris Anderson Paradox
Content Is King Content Is Commoditized
Best in the World Original
Content Is King
Second Best
Content Is Commoditized
Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail
Journalism Video Publishing Ideas Courses Credentialing
Disruptive
Competency
Based Education
Traditional
Degree
Publishing as a Case Study
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship
1. Trade Books in Print
2. Trade eBooks
3. Indie eBooks
MarketShare
Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from
http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html
Trade is
World’s Best
Indie is
Long Tail
Publishing as a Case Study: Best vs. Long Tail
0.003% 0.08% 0.40%
2.00% 3.00%
4.50%
8.00%
11.25%
15.00%
19.25%
24.00%
29.25%
35.00%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship
1. Trade Books in Print
2. Trade eBooks
3. Indie eBooks
4. Total Indie Market Share
5. Total Trade Market Share
MarketShare
Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from
http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html
Trade is
World’s Best
Indie is
Long Tail
As More Students Go Online Will Traditional Higher Education
Follow Market Share Trajectory of Publishing?
Chart from: Allen, I. E., & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade change: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Ouahog Research Group.
Retrieved from www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradechange.pdf
Journalism & Newspapers as a Case Study
Sources: Mark Perry. (2012, September 6). CARPE DIEM: Free-fall: Adjusted for Inflation, Print Newspaper Advertising Will be Lower This Year Than in 1950. Retrieved from
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html
Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/
Journalism Jobs
down 42%
from their peak
Sources (listed above or
Factors that Affect Susceptibility to Disruption
 Is there a technology core that could rapidly innovate?
◦ Yes. Online/digital education
 How much is the industry regulated?
◦ Moderately: Higher education vs. energy or pharmaceuticals (most
regulated)
 Are there new industries requiring incumbent’s core
competencies?
◦ i.e. Landline phone companies becoming mobile operators
◦ i.e. Cable television becoming broadband Internet providers
 Is there very high investment cost to enter market?
◦ i.e. Energy and pharmaceuticals
 Are there only a few competitors?
◦ i.e. Television Networks
Sources:
Rob Perrons. (2013, September). Why the energy technology revolution hasn’t happened: Robert Perrons at TEDxQUT. Presented at the
TEDx Talks, Queensland University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=FeG0-goXmjA
Corporate Strategy Principles from Case Studies
 Best in the world content corporate strategy
◦ Increase scale and market power through consolidation
◦ Develop tech capacity, hybrid solutions and value innovation strategies
◦ Cut costs to prepare for declining market share
◦ Invest in digital growth and diversify into other growth markets
◦ Use regulation to limit competition or to provide increased subsidy
 Long tail corporate strategy
◦ Core competency is technology
◦ Dramatically reduce per-unit cost through crowdsourcing
◦ Work to commoditize long tail content so you capture value as aggregator
◦ Self-regulate to avoid regulation
◦ Leverage strength of long tail in cost, diversity and globalization
Personal Strategy Principles from Case Studies
 Best in the world content personal strategy
◦ Find your “idea worth sharing” niche where you can be best in the world
◦ Use multi-channel marketing to develop your brand: books, online, articles,
speaking, presentations, blog, podcasts, videos, university affiliation, etc.
 Long tail personal strategy
◦ Develop efficiency for volume production to make a living in a low per-unit
cost market
◦ Increase revenue by moving upscale by increasing quality
◦ Increase revenue by using multi-channel marketing
◦ Recognize that employers receive 100 times as many resumes, so get your
name out there 100 times a much
Unbundling, Innovation and the Changing
Landscape of Accreditation and Regulation
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker
Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker
From Faculty Centric to Student Centric
Unbundling and Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty
Regulators
InnovatorsIncumbents
Students
Faculty
Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits & faculty salaries)
to consumer surplus (lower tuition and increased student benefits)
Porter’s Five Forces Model, Accreditation & Regulation
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Buyer
Power
Threat of
Substitut
es
Supplier
Power
(faculty)
Faculty Power Increased by
• Faculty-driven accreditation
requirements (ratios, PhDs)
Faculty Power Decreased by:
• Lax laws for contractors
• Requirements for financial solvency
Regulation for Efficient Market:
• Credit portability
• Course-based accreditation (ACE)
Protective Strategy:
• Exclusivity of regional accreditation
Protective Strategy:
• Increased regulation (of for profit schools)
• Increased accreditation requirements
• State authorization requirements
Regulation for Efficient Market:
• College Scorecard
• RoI/Cost/Performance Pressures
Protective Strategy:
• Information Asymmetry
• Differentiation & Increased Tuition
Protective Strategy:
• Government bailout
Lean Startup, Innovation & the Problem with the Current
Assessment Model for Accreditation
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
(Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)
Blue Ocean Strategy, Value Innovation and the Problem with
Current Accreditation Metrics
Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time
Image Source: Wikimedia
 Output vs. input
Recommendations
 Support more modular accreditation (course level and unit level)
◦ ACE Credit Recommendation
For Profit Higher Education
Current Stage
of Online Education
1st Wave For Profit 2nd Wave (Courseware Tech Ecosystems)
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education
3. Growth of For-Profits
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Growth of For-Profit Education
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Dominate Age 22 and above
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Average Revenue per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Average Spending Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Have Highest Load Debt Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Instructional Spending by Type
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
University of Phoenix (2010)
Enrollment = 600,000
University of Phoenix (2015)
Enrollment = 215,000
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher
Education
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do
adaptive initiatives erode Christian
colleges’ strong mission orientation.
Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson
University, Anderson, IN.
http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
Environmental
(adaptive)
vs.
Internally-Driven
(interpretive)
Strategy
Disruptive Innovation & the Is-Ought Distinction
God, grant me the serenity to
accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.
Just because something is happening
does not mean it should happen.
A Best Guess on Wisdom
Things I cannot change
 Massive consolidation in higher education
 Western education eclipsed by “the rest”
 Future dominance of technology in education
 Baumol’s cost disease
 Changing roles of faculty
 Future growth of traditional Western Christian
higher education
Thing I can change
 Pursue strategies to achieve scale
 Develop business models for BoP
 Embrace tech as core competency
 Cut cost, automate and unbundle for
efficiency
 Retrain faculty for economic future
 Invest in new growth markets
Three Visions for Future Growth of HE
1. Government
◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education:
Obamacare for Higher Education
◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students
◦ Challenge: increases secularizing influence of government education
2. Global Educational Conglomerate
◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4 tech
companies offering free education with a small payment for the
credential
◦ Challenge: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media
conglomerates
3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand Christian
market share in post-secondary education
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
-
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
2,000,000,000
1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025
Christian Membership by Region
West South
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson
http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
1900 1970 2000 2007 2025
South 21% 59% 86% 91% 99%
West 79% 41% 14% 9% 1%
21%
59%
86%
91%
99%
79%
41%
14%
9%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Growth of Christianity by Region
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson
http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
Christian Mega-universities & Growth
Liberty U
43%
Grand Canyon U
39%
All of CCCU
18%
Estimated Growth Since 2005
Total Growth:
175,808 students
Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
Methods
Market
Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market
Mission
Mission Does Not Change!
(unless your includes
methods and market)
Essential Elements of Christian Education
1. Christian worldview
2. Christian community
3. Christian content
4. Christian care for stakeholders
Process for Modular Christian Education
Theology &
Christian Worldview
Audience, Pedagogy
& Goals
Christian Community, Transformative
Experience & Metacognitive Education
Christian
Courses
Theology
Courses
Secular
Courseware
Secular MOOCs
& Open
Education
ResourcesSubjects
Components
Packaged
in a Traditional
Degree
Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute,
August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf
and http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/
The Core Competencies
of Christian Education
are the Hardest to Replace
(Life Transformation &
Metacognition)
(Affective)
(Cognitive)
(Psychomotor)
(Metacognition)
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Rebundling Example:
Online Christian Education
Knowledge
Acquisition
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Transformative
Experience
Workplace
Mentoring
Online Education
Degree
Internship/
Practicum
Pastoral
Mentoring
Service
Learning
Discipleship
Program
International
or Urban
Immersion
View Christian education as a cradle to grave
ecosystem.
Nearly Free
Content
& Innovation
Christian College
(Life Transformation)
+
Better
Than
Government Subsidized
State University
In a platform world, how do we make the entire
Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive?
Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing
Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy
Traditional Higher Education
Traditional Monastery
Higher Education Model
Local Christian
Community
Practical Work
ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor
Distant From
Students
Re-bundling Online Education with
Church Study Groups & Internships
Local Discipleship &
Study Groups
Practical Work
Experience
Distant From
Students
Instructor
What business has the most locations in the USA?
14,146
25,900
Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.html
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/
314,000
What institution has the most locations in the USA?
Strategic Implications of Prospect of Faith-Based
Institutions Losing Federal Aid
Bottom Half Strategy
 Job prep/RoI focus
 Increase automation
 Christian ecosystem
 More international focus
 Focus on scale
 Could benefit from CBE
 More focus on the poor
Lose Federal Aid Strategy
 Job prep/RoI Focus
 Increase automation
 Christian ecosystem
 More international focus
 Focus on scale
 CBE likely to allow CHE
 More focus on the rich
Developing a bottom-half strategy also
prepares for a world without federal aid.
Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation
 Christian Mega-universities
◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon
 Competency Based Education
◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting
 Radically New Education Models
◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision
 Christian Open Education (next slide)
 Investment and Outsourcing Companies
◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education
 Global Innovators
◦ Global University
 Course Vendors & Clearinghouses
◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House
Christian(Jesus) Community Colleges
MOOCs & Open Ed
Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn
Open2study, Udemy, Khan Academy,
Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI
Christian Mega Universities
Liberty, Grand Canyon
Affordable Tech Sector
Christian
Innovation Sector
Affordable
Christian SectorKey: Black Accredited. Orange Content Provider Green Community Partners
Competency Based
Western Governors
College for America
State Colleges
Christian Universities
in Developing Countries
daystar.ac.ke
Paid Courseware
Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com,
Skillshare, Pluralsight
Affordable Bible Colleges
ABHE Schools
Online Christian Universities
ACE Credit
Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online
EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia
UC Irvine Extension, Dream Degree
Christian Open Ed
ChristianCourses.com, Open Biola, Covenant Seminary,
Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Openseminary.com
BiblicalTraining.org, Harvestime.org, http://thirdmill.org,
Christian CEU Providers
insight.org/CEU, lifepointemedia.com, lifeway.com/ceu,
livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, precept.org/ceu, sampsonresources.com,
www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu,
www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses,
www.bsfinternational.org/studies, hristiancounselingceu.com
Paid Christian Wholesale Course Providers
Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh,
connect.ligonier.org, onlinesbs.org/esbs/
Bible Institutes
TUMI, NYDS
Open Textbooks
saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org,
courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen
collegeopentextbooks.org,
open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/
Missions/Ministry Training
Mission Year, YWAM U Nations, IHOP U
Developing Country Tech
Kepler.org, Avu.edu, elearningafrica.com,
Coursera Learning Hub, MIT Ulabs,
U of People, Pearson Affordable Learning
Training Centers
Qualifications Providers
Industry Map
Higher Ed in Developing Countries
Christian Employers
Employer Paid Tuition Partners
Internship Sites
70+ Ministries
Discipleship Study Centers
(in churches and ministries)
Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnam
5 pt. decline
10 pt. decline
Gap Doubles
to 10 points
5 point
gap
Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among
the poor affecting their church attendance?
Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses
 Free or Open Christian Content Providers
◦ Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute,
BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org
 Aggregators of Christian Course Content:
◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo
 Low Cost Christian CEU Providers
◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/,
www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu,
www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com
 Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers
◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, CUGN.org
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education (full course slides)
Create Matrix Map of Divisions
Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make
Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
Example Matrix Map
Source: Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
Matrix Map is similar to Growth Share Matrix used in Business Strategy. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Growth%E2%80%93share_matrix&oldid=695752726
Who Has Jobs by Education?
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Less Than High School
Diploma
High School Graduate Some College or
Associate's
Bachelor's Degree
Source: StLouisFed FRED. May 2015
Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education
Does Technology Hurt or Help the Poor?
Ability of Institutional Models to Cross the Chasm and Serve
the Unreached Bottom Half
Radically
Accessib
le
Radically
Affordabl
e
Tech
Innovato
r
Cultura
l Match
Remedia
l
Educatio
n
Disruptive Christian
College
    
Community College
& Mega-universities
 Somewhat  
For-Profit College   Varies
High-Priced Online   Varies
Traditional Christian
College
State SchoolsCity Vision serves the bottom half socioeconomically
(bottom 75% in graduate programs)
Blue Ocean Strategy and New Value
Innovation Business Models
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas for Southwest Airlines
Overview of Blue Ocean Strategy and Value Innovation
Adaptive Learning and Competency
Based Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail
Journalism Video Publishing Expertise Courses Credentialing
Disruptive
Competency
Based Education
Traditional
Degree
ScalabilityLow-TechHigh-Touch
Pace of PersonalizationMore Static Continuously Adaptive
High-Tech,Low-Touch
Face-to-Face Tutoring
Differentiated
Instruction
Correspondence
Courses
Static
MOOCs
Computer-Based
Instruction
Online
Courses
Mastery Learning CBE
(Western Governors)
Adaptive
CBE
PLA Portfolio
Blended
Adaptive
(Khan Academy)
Credit
By Exam
Classroom
Instruction
High-Fixed Cost
Low-Per Student Cost
Low-Fixed Cost
High-Per Student Cost
Mapping Modes of Education
Source: Initial Chart idea from Brian Flemming. (2015, May). Adaptive Learning: The Breakthrough Innovation Impacting Education Today. Eduventures Online Webinar. Retrieved
from bit.ly/1HGerOS. Andrew Sears made many additions and changes to chart.

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Teaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovation
Teaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovationTeaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovation
Teaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovationScott McLeod
 
Systemise Your Business - The Power of Outsourcing
Systemise Your Business - The Power of OutsourcingSystemise Your Business - The Power of Outsourcing
Systemise Your Business - The Power of OutsourcingThe Entourage
 
IT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak Chauhan
IT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak ChauhanIT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak Chauhan
IT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak ChauhanVOCSO Technologies
 
Open Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in India
Open Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in IndiaOpen Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in India
Open Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in IndiaRamesh C. Sharma
 
People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016
People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016
People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016LinkedIn Talent Solutions
 
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaDisruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaChris Sandström
 
Trends on Information Technology
Trends on Information TechnologyTrends on Information Technology
Trends on Information TechnologyCarlos J. Costa
 
Introduction to Disruptive Innovation
Introduction to Disruptive InnovationIntroduction to Disruptive Innovation
Introduction to Disruptive InnovationThe Entourage
 
Innovation in Higher Education Marketing
Innovation in Higher Education MarketingInnovation in Higher Education Marketing
Innovation in Higher Education MarketingEarnest
 
Cloudy forecasts and other trends in information technology
Cloudy forecasts and other trends in information technologyCloudy forecasts and other trends in information technology
Cloudy forecasts and other trends in information technologyAlan McSweeney
 
Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of Polaroid
Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of PolaroidDisruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of Polaroid
Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of PolaroidChris Sandström
 
Learning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus College
Learning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus CollegeLearning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus College
Learning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus CollegeJisc
 
10 disruptive innovation
10 disruptive innovation10 disruptive innovation
10 disruptive innovationWesley Shu
 
Disruptive Innovation
Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation
Disruptive InnovationWesley Shu
 
A Google-powered classroom
A Google-powered classroomA Google-powered classroom
A Google-powered classroomJisc
 
Using User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive Innovation
Using User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive InnovationUsing User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive Innovation
Using User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive InnovationDesignit
 
5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation
5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation
5 Examples Of Disruptive InnovationChris Sandström
 

Viewers also liked (18)

Teaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovation
Teaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovationTeaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovation
Teaching and learning in an era of disruptive innovation
 
Systemise Your Business - The Power of Outsourcing
Systemise Your Business - The Power of OutsourcingSystemise Your Business - The Power of Outsourcing
Systemise Your Business - The Power of Outsourcing
 
IT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak Chauhan
IT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak ChauhanIT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak Chauhan
IT Trends - DAV Centenary College Presentation by Deepak Chauhan
 
Open Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in India
Open Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in IndiaOpen Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in India
Open Educational Resources: Emerging Scenarios in India
 
People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016
People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016
People analytics: Breaking myths with agility and passion | Talent Connect 2016
 
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaDisruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
 
Trends on Information Technology
Trends on Information TechnologyTrends on Information Technology
Trends on Information Technology
 
Introduction to Disruptive Innovation
Introduction to Disruptive InnovationIntroduction to Disruptive Innovation
Introduction to Disruptive Innovation
 
Innovation in Higher Education Marketing
Innovation in Higher Education MarketingInnovation in Higher Education Marketing
Innovation in Higher Education Marketing
 
Cloudy forecasts and other trends in information technology
Cloudy forecasts and other trends in information technologyCloudy forecasts and other trends in information technology
Cloudy forecasts and other trends in information technology
 
Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of Polaroid
Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of PolaroidDisruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of Polaroid
Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of Polaroid
 
Learning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus College
Learning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus CollegeLearning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus College
Learning and exploring with new technology at Dundee and Angus College
 
10 disruptive innovation
10 disruptive innovation10 disruptive innovation
10 disruptive innovation
 
Disruptive Innovation
Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation
Disruptive Innovation
 
A Google-powered classroom
A Google-powered classroomA Google-powered classroom
A Google-powered classroom
 
Competition and Disruptive Innovation
Competition and Disruptive InnovationCompetition and Disruptive Innovation
Competition and Disruptive Innovation
 
Using User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive Innovation
Using User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive InnovationUsing User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive Innovation
Using User Research and Co-Creation for Disruptive Innovation
 
5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation
5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation
5 Examples Of Disruptive Innovation
 

More from City Vision University

BUS 605: Strategic management Capstone Course
BUS 605: Strategic management Capstone CourseBUS 605: Strategic management Capstone Course
BUS 605: Strategic management Capstone CourseCity Vision University
 
Academic Program Development and Accreditation Course
Academic Program Development and Accreditation CourseAcademic Program Development and Accreditation Course
Academic Program Development and Accreditation CourseCity Vision University
 
Instructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course Slides
Instructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course SlidesInstructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course Slides
Instructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course SlidesCity Vision University
 
Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...
Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...
Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...City Vision University
 
Blockchain in HigherEducation Presentation
Blockchain in HigherEducation PresentationBlockchain in HigherEducation Presentation
Blockchain in HigherEducation PresentationCity Vision University
 
The Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT Conference
The Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT ConferenceThe Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT Conference
The Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT ConferenceCity Vision University
 
Disruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT Conference
Disruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT ConferenceDisruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT Conference
Disruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT ConferenceCity Vision University
 
What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE SchoolsWhat Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE SchoolsCity Vision University
 
Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...
Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...
Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...City Vision University
 
Majority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive Innovation
Majority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive InnovationMajority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive Innovation
Majority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive InnovationCity Vision University
 
How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion GloballyHow Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion GloballyCity Vision University
 
GC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority World
GC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority WorldGC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority World
GC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority WorldCity Vision University
 
The Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew Sears
The Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew SearsThe Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew Sears
The Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew SearsCity Vision University
 
YWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher Education
YWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher EducationYWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher Education
YWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher EducationCity Vision University
 
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational EcosystemPrinciples for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational EcosystemCity Vision University
 
What Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC SchoolsWhat Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC SchoolsCity Vision University
 
How Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to Work
How Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to WorkHow Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to Work
How Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to WorkCity Vision University
 
Christian Worldview and Discovering Calling
Christian Worldview and Discovering CallingChristian Worldview and Discovering Calling
Christian Worldview and Discovering CallingCity Vision University
 

More from City Vision University (20)

BUS 605: Strategic management Capstone Course
BUS 605: Strategic management Capstone CourseBUS 605: Strategic management Capstone Course
BUS 605: Strategic management Capstone Course
 
Academic Program Development and Accreditation Course
Academic Program Development and Accreditation CourseAcademic Program Development and Accreditation Course
Academic Program Development and Accreditation Course
 
Instructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course Slides
Instructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course SlidesInstructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course Slides
Instructional Design for Online and Blended Learning Course Slides
 
Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...
Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...
Disruptive Innovation and Accreditation in Christian Higher Education for the...
 
Blockchain in HigherEducation Presentation
Blockchain in HigherEducation PresentationBlockchain in HigherEducation Presentation
Blockchain in HigherEducation Presentation
 
The Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT Conference
The Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT ConferenceThe Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT Conference
The Power of Disruption Keynote Andrew Sears CCCU COT Conference
 
Disruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT Conference
Disruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT ConferenceDisruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT Conference
Disruptive Innovation and the Lean Startup Workshop for CCCU COT Conference
 
What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE SchoolsWhat Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE Schools
 
Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...
Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...
Resources for Christians in Technology (presented to Boston Gospel Tech Hub G...
 
Majority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive Innovation
Majority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive InnovationMajority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive Innovation
Majority World Christian Leadership Development and Disruptive Innovation
 
How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion GloballyHow Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
 
GC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority World
GC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority WorldGC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority World
GC4 and Alternative Models for Christian Accreditation for the Majority World
 
The Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew Sears
The Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew SearsThe Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew Sears
The Redemption of Technology Workshop (Theology of Technology) by Andrew Sears
 
YWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher Education
YWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher EducationYWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher Education
YWAM University of the Nations Innovation in Christian Higher Education
 
Human Resources Course Introduction
Human Resources Course IntroductionHuman Resources Course Introduction
Human Resources Course Introduction
 
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational EcosystemPrinciples for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
 
Media Nutrition Pyramid Lesson Plan
Media Nutrition Pyramid Lesson PlanMedia Nutrition Pyramid Lesson Plan
Media Nutrition Pyramid Lesson Plan
 
What Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC SchoolsWhat Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC Schools
What Disruptive Innovation Means for DEAC Schools
 
How Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to Work
How Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to WorkHow Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to Work
How Then Shall We Live? - The Christian Worldview Applied to Work
 
Christian Worldview and Discovering Calling
Christian Worldview and Discovering CallingChristian Worldview and Discovering Calling
Christian Worldview and Discovering Calling
 

Recently uploaded

Clinical Pharmacy Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptx
Clinical Pharmacy  Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptxClinical Pharmacy  Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptx
Clinical Pharmacy Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptxraviapr7
 
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.raviapr7
 
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxCAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxSaurabhParmar42
 
Presentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a Paragraph
Presentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a ParagraphPresentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a Paragraph
Presentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a ParagraphNetziValdelomar1
 
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptxmary850239
 
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxIn - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxAditiChauhan701637
 
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxM-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxDr. Santhosh Kumar. N
 
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptxPractical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptxKatherine Villaluna
 
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17Celine George
 
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024UKCGE
 
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptxCapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptxCapitolTechU
 
Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...
Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...
Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...raviapr7
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxDr. Asif Anas
 
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptxPISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptxEduSkills OECD
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxMYDA ANGELICA SUAN
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17Celine George
 
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICEQuality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICESayali Powar
 
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.EnglishCEIPdeSigeiro
 
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfDiploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfMohonDas
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Clinical Pharmacy Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptx
Clinical Pharmacy  Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptxClinical Pharmacy  Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptx
Clinical Pharmacy Introduction to Clinical Pharmacy, Concept of clinical pptx
 
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
 
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxCAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
 
Presentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a Paragraph
Presentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a ParagraphPresentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a Paragraph
Presentation on the Basics of Writing. Writing a Paragraph
 
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
 
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
 
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxIn - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
 
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxM-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
 
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptxPractical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
 
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
 
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
 
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptxCapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
 
Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...
Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...
Patient Counselling. Definition of patient counseling; steps involved in pati...
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
 
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptxPISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
 
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICEQuality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
 
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
 
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfDiploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
 

Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education (full course slides)

  • 1. Course Introduction: Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 2. 3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education “Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.” - Peter Drucker, 1997 “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara) “In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.” - Clayton Christensen, 2013 Image Source: Wikimedia
  • 3. Who This Course is For  Faculty, staff, students and administration at educational institutions wanting to understand and adapt to the changes to their industry  Innovators with an interest in education  Anyone that wants to know how to prepare for the economy of the future
  • 4. What: Course Objectives  Understand the latest concepts driving change in higher education  Develop strategy for higher education using key concepts of disruptive innovation and other topics  Use the material from this course to become a change agent to bring innovation to their institution  Use the material from this course in a "flipped classroom" discussion among students or leaders at your institution
  • 5. What: Course Outline 1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education 2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education 3. Economics of Traditional Online Education 4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms 5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education 6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty 7. Lean Startup for Education 8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis 9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education 10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
  • 6. How to Use this Course  Individually ◦ Download to mobile through Udemy or iTunesU or use YouTube Playlist ◦ Listen while exercising or commuting ◦ Go deep with supplemental videos and bibliography  Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups ◦ Listen to talks in advance ◦ For your students ◦ For leaders and change agents at your institutions ◦ Invite me to Skype in for discussion  Give feedback in discussion forum ◦ Two way Diffusion of Innovation: Bibliography suggestions, new initiatives
  • 7. How: Media Formats & Links  Udemy ◦ https://goo.gl/ixlBwn  iTunes University ◦ https://goo.gl/9pGDAt  YouTube (videos only) ◦ https://goo.gl/B8kkD2  Slideshare (slides & video only)
  • 8. “Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.” - H.G. Wells Image from Wikipedia
  • 9. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 10. Key Concepts of Disruptive Innovation  Disruptive Innovation ◦ Definition: process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors. ◦ Often combines off-the-shelf components in new, simpler ways ◦ Tend to be produced by new entrants  Sustaining innovations tend to be dominated by incumbents  Low-end disruption serves current market with a good enough product  New-market disruption expands market with better price & access Source: Christensen, Clayton. (n.d.). Disruptive Innovation. Retrieved from http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/
  • 12. Smartphones: Disruptive Technology Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press. p. 289 “People with a smartphone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”
  • 14. Traditional Higher Education Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education Disruptive Innovation Education for Emerging Markets Traditional Online Education 10 x More Students 1/10th Cost For Profit Higher Education Community College Traditional Higher Ed in Emerging Markets Global Courseware Tech Platforms
  • 15. Disruptive Innovation Theory Image Source: Wikimedia Online education is here
  • 16. Current Stage of Online Education LMS Stage Courseware Platform Stage Image Source: Wikimedia Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education
  • 17. Image Source: Wikimedia Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees US Average Global Average Top Income Quartile 3rd Income Quartile 1st & 2nd Income Quartile
  • 18. 1: Traditional Higher Education 2: Traditional Online Education 3: Courseware Platforms & Emerging Markets Mac iPod iPhone Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
  • 19. Environmentally Adaptive “The Is” or Likely Future Internally Driven “The Ought” or Preferred Future Past Future Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf My Primary Expertise Your Understanding Dialogue A Framework for Discussion “The Is vs. The Ought”
  • 20. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 21. 1: Traditional Higher Education 2: Traditional Online Education 3: Courseware Platforms & Emerging Markets Mac iPod iPhone Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
  • 22. Increasing Cost of Higher Education Historically
  • 23. Future Forecast for Private Education Demonstrate Unsustainability $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 7.2% Annual Tuition Increase 5% Annual Tuition Increase 2% CPI/Inflation Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $145,200/year Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $68,829/year 7.2% annual tuition increase is CCCU average since 2001 Tuition
  • 24. The Blame Game It’s the Faculty’s Fault! It’s the Administration's Fault! Wait. It’s the students’ fault! The Answer is… Yes
  • 25. Baumol’s Cost Disease: Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
  • 26. Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/
  • 27. What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1 Increased Productivity in Other Sectors Increased Cost of High Skilled Labor = Increased Costs of Faculty & Senior Administration Increased • standardized tests • large lectures • teaching assistants • administrative staff • adjuncts • underpaid faculty Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1 Baumol’s Cost Disease Economics of Superstars Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000. Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.
  • 28. What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2 Decreasing Gov’t Funding of Higher Education Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University Creates Prisoners Dilemma / arms race of increasing expenses to attract full-pay students.
  • 29. Market Changes & Porter’s Five Forces Model Competitiv e Rivalry Threat of New Entry Buyer Power Threat of Substitut es Supplier Power Decreased by: • Faculty overcapacity • “Uberization” of adjuncts • Unbundling components • Commoditized content & OER Increased for: • Faculty superstars Increased Alternatives to Campus Education: • Online, blended & CBE degrees • Non-degree programs • Employer analytics • Overcapacity • Consolidation Dramatically Increased by: • National competition online • Global competition • For-profit & mega-universities Increased by: • Standardization • Unbundling degrees
  • 30. Sustaining Innovation Recommendations 1. Out-market using analytics: ◦ “Moneyball” model (Race with the Machine by developing tech marketing core competency) ◦ Models: Arizona State, Liberty, George Fox 2. Enhance value using innovation, technology & blended learning 3. Cut costs 4. Provide a more granular approach to balanced P&L by division 5. Move “up market” into graduate education 6. Expand other revenue streams ◦ Health care, grow endowment, etc.
  • 31. Market Dynamics of Traditional Online Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 32. Economics of Online Education 1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students) is likely between $500-3,000/year 2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography 3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue) 4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation 13% of students are online only 9% are in for-profit institutions Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University Ambient Insight
  • 33. • Higher education overall: about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment. • Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market. Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/ Online Education = Consolidation Online likely to sustain 1/10 of current schools
  • 34. Understanding the For-Profit Education Business Model Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf and http://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf Marketing $3,389 35% Profit $1,848 19% Instruction $2,177 22% Other $2,295 24% For-Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon) Private Nonprofit: 32%
  • 35. Comparing Business Models Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf For-Profit Private Nonprofit Public Revenue/Student $11,130 $37,869 $18,922 Instruction 26% budget 33% budget 28% budget Research 0% budget 12.5% budget 14% budget
  • 36. Recommendations for Online Education 1. Invest in marketing ◦ Facilities expense is replaced by marketing expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems to be visible = 20-30% revenue) 2. Create an independent skunkworks division ◦ “New wine in new wineskins” ◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where to focus 3. Scale to reduce costs ◦ Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students) is likely between $500-3,000/year
  • 37. Disruptive Innovation in Education for Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 38. 1: Traditional Higher Education 2: Traditional Online Education 3: Courseware Platforms & Emerging Markets Mac iPod iPhone Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
  • 39. Global Opportunity 100 Million Students in 2000 263 Million Students in 2025 (84% of growth in the developing world) Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572. Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf 137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
  • 40. New Map of the World
  • 41. Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) Innovation Principles  Price Performance  Innovation: Hybrids  Scale of Operations  Sustainable Development: Eco-Friendly  Identifying Functionality  Process Innovation  Deskilling Of Work  Education Of Customers  Designing for Hostile Infrastructure  Interfaces  Distribution: Accessing the Customer  BOP markets essentially allow us to challenge the conventional wisdom in delivery of products and services
  • 42. Potential Scenario: 2035-2050  Global Scenario ◦ 10 times growth in tertiary education globally ◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries ◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are nearly free  US Scenario ◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state schools are likely to compete in a non-subsidized competitive market ◦ Private schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public higher education ◦ Private higher education experiences major consolidation ◦ Private schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft) ◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost providers Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University Ambient Insight
  • 43. Future of Higher Education 2035  Tier 1: The Elite ◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars) ◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist, Organic Farming, Luxury Watches  Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost ◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch ◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies  Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost ◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year ◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce  Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses ◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services, videos, etc. ◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers  Tier 5: Courseware platforms ◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
  • 44. How to Survive the Coming Storm: Lessons from Industry Case Studies 1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale. ◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming 2. Offer both/and products to compete. ◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix 3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths. ◦ Journalism & News: New York Times 4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth. ◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
  • 45. Recommendations for Emerging Markets 1. Create an emerging markets skunkworks division within your online skunkworks division ◦ i.e. College for America, City Vision University, Low-Cost Vocational Qualification Providers 2. Start with a price that emerging market customers can afford, then design around that. Price near marginal cost. 3. Use automation, unbundling and scale from emerging markets to reduce cost in traditional online education. 4. Design for mobile first for content delivery. 5. Disrupt yourself, at lowest levels, but use marketing and pricing mechanisms to limit cannibalization of your higher priced products. 6. Use lean startup methods with technology as core competency.
  • 47. City Vision Growth Vision & Decreasing Costs 250 750 2,000 4,000 8,000 16,000 32,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,000 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Students MarginalCostPerStudent Students Marginal Cost Per Student Pricing would be above marginal cost.
  • 48. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 49. Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time Image Source: Wikimedia
  • 50. Unbundling in the Computer Industry Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove Other Examples • Netflix vs. Cable TV • iTunes vs. Albums • Online news vs. Newspapers
  • 51. Components Packaged in a Traditional Degree Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf and http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/ (Affective) (Cognitive) (Psychomotor) (Metacognition) Darker blue represents components that are the easiest to automate/disrupt.
  • 52. University Virtually Integrated University Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University University Unbundled University Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Univ. Boot Camps & Accelerators Open Education Vocational & Trade Schools Industry Certifications Boot Camps & Accelerators Staffing Agencies MOOCs & Apps Univ. Univ. Gap Year Service Learning Study Abroad Univ. Paid Courseware CBE/Prior Learning Community College Internships & Externships Alternative Credentials Religious Service University Employer Networks Alternative Ed Providers Independent Projects University Unbundled Competitors to Universities Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits) to consumer surplus (student benefits)
  • 53. Rebundling Examples: Western Governors University Western Governors’ Rebundled Program Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Course Mentors (SME) Credit by Exam & Prior Learning Degree Paid Courseware Credit by Exam or Competency Evaluation Documented Competencies Industry Certifications No Offering Student Mentors Evaluators Program Faculty Practicum
  • 54. Rebundling Example: LinkedIn LinkedIn Rebundled Program Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Job Placement Service & Coaching Lynda.com Competenc y Profile Employer Analytics Third Party Badging Industry Certifications Employment Social Network Testing Services Universities No Offering
  • 55. Rebundling Example: Code Academies Code Academies’ Rebundled Program Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Mentored Project-Based Learning Most Current, Highest Demand Content from Top Practitioners Relationships to Employer Employment Guarantees Brand for Recruiting Raw Brainpower No Offering
  • 56. Rebundling Examples: Vocational Qualifications Vocational Qualifications Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.) Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience No Offering Level 3 Level 4 Top-up Bachelor’s Degree Level 8 Level 5 Level 7 Master’s Prior Learning Assessment Doctorate Vocational Learning Centers Internships & Externships Employer Networks Industry Certifications On-the-job Training
  • 57. Becoming Commoditized • Freshman • Sophomore • High School Core Competency • Grad School • Senior • Junior Strategy:MigrateUp Race with the machine not against the machine Strategy Accelerated education with automation Strategy Double Down Unbundle/Outsource Lower Tiers of Bloom’s Taxonomy
  • 59. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 60. Market and Technology Drivers for Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities Competitiv e Rivalry Threat of New Entry Buyer Power Threat of Substitut es Supplier Power Decreased by: • Faculty overcapacity • “Uberization” of Adjuncts • Unbundling components • Commoditized content & OER Increased for: • Faculty superstars Increased Alternatives to Campus Education: • Online, blended & CBE degrees • Non-degree programs • Employer analytics • Overcapacity • Consolidation Dramatically Increased by: • National competition online • Global competition • For profit & mega-universities Increased by: • Standardization • Unbundling degrees
  • 61. Market and Technology Drivers for Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities Competitiv e Rivalry Threat of New Entry Students Threat of Substitut es Faculty Technology Technology OuchOuch
  • 62. Unbundling and Deskilling Faculty: Western Governors’ Model Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Credit by Exam & Prior Learning Degree Paid Courseware Credit by Exam or Competency Evaluation CBE Industry Certifications Student Mentors Evaluators Program Faculty (ID) Requires critical new skills in tech & instructional design. More scalable than department chair structure. Deskilled position with relational core competency Core competency of faculty becomes standardized, commoditized & requires new skills in online teaching Lecture & much of content development is outsourced as course content market becomes like book market University of Phoenix Employs 29 Instructors to 1 Course Designer(1) Sources: About Western Governors University | WGU Faculty. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2016, from http://www.wgu.edu/about_WGU/wgu_faculty (1) American Higher Education in Crisis?: What Everyone Needs to Know®. (2014) (1 edition). Oxford ; New York: Oxford University Press. Course Mentors (SME)
  • 63. Porter’s Five Forces Model for Faculty Competitiv e Rivalry Threat of New Entry Buyer Power Threat of Substitut es Supplier Power • Commoditized Content • OER & MOOCs • Paid Courseware • Student Mentors • Instructional Designers • Overcapacity • Decreasing Wages Increasing Unemployment Dramatically Increased by: • Distance independence of online faculty • Global market for faculty • Pre-packaged course publishers • Glut of graduate education in some fields Dramatically Increased by: • Standardization • Unbundling faculty • Online content Decreased by: • Open content • Better research tools • Increased access to published research
  • 64. Improving Faculty Productivity through Automation
  • 65. Automation and Hollowing Out of the Middle: In the Future Faculty Will Either be a Superstar or a Factory Worker Source: Financial Times Graphic. Smith, Y. (2015, December 10). Demise of the US Middle Class Now Official. Retrieved from http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/12/demise-of-the-us-middle-class-now-official.html
  • 66. Case Study Examples Journalism jobs are down 42% from their peak Sources (listed above or Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/ 1. How to justly serve faculty facing declining economic prospects? 2. Will much of faculty research go the way of investigative journalism?
  • 68. Retraining for a Reimagined Role of Faculty  Case Studies: ◦ Farming, manufacturing, music industry, journalism, TED  Find Research Funding or Find your “TED Talk” ◦ Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”  Growth of Faculty Entrepreneurs will follow growth of entrepreneurship in other sectors  Faculty need to establish a platform across multi-format and multi-channel revenue sources ◦ Spread ideas horizontally across different media and markets ◦ Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, podcasts, YouTube, etc. ◦ University is one of many channels
  • 69. Information-Based Business Models Cost Minimization/ Benefit Acquisition Public Domain Intrafirm Barter/Sharing Rights-based exclusion (make money by exercising exclusive rights—licensing or blocking competition) Romantic Maximizers (authors, composers; sell to publishers; sometimes sell to Mickeys). Faculty: Commercial Publishing. Self-publishing. Mickey (Disney reuses inventory for derivative works; buy outputs of Romantic Maximizers). Faculty course development. Paid MOOCs. RCA (small number of companies hold blocking patents; they create patent pools to build valuable goods). Faculty: Patents. Nonexclusion Market (make money from information production but not by exercising the exclusive rights) Scholarly Lawyers (write articles to get clients; other examples include bands that give music out for free as advertisements for touring and charge money for performance; software developers who develop software and make money from customizing it to a particular client, on-site management, advice and training, not from licensing). Faculty Self-Publishing for their Personal Consulting Business Know-How (firms that have cheaper or better production processes because of their research, lower their costs or improve the quality of other goods or services; lawyer offices that build on existing forms). Faculty University Community; Contracting for Consulting Firms Learning Networks (share information with similar organizations— make money from early access to information. For example, newspapers join together to create a wire service; firms where engineers and scientists from different firms attend professional societies to diffuse knowledge). Research Consortiums. Academic Societies. Nonexclusion- Nonmarket Joe Einstein (give away information for free in return for status, benefits to reputation, value of the innovation to themselves; wide range of motivations. Includes members of amateur choirs who perform for free, academics who write articles for fame, people who write opeds, contribute to mailing lists; many free software developers and free software generally for most uses) Faculty Academic Publishing. Blogging. Free self-publishing. Podcasts. Open Education & Content. YouTube. Free MOOCs. Los Alamos (share in-house information, rely on in-house inputs to produce valuable public goods used to secure additional government funding and status). University Research Labs. Nonprofit or Corporate Research Labs. Limited sharing networks (release paper to small number of colleagues to get comments so you can improve it before publication. Make use of time delay to gain relative advantage later on using Joe Einstein strategy. Share one’s information on formal condition of reciprocity: like “copyleft” conditions on derivative works for distribution) Informal Peer Review Networks Benkler, Y. (2007). The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom. Yale University Press. pp 43
  • 70. Tech as a Core Competency of Faculty  Just as in other professions in the future, faculty without tech as a core competency will not be competitive ◦ Instructional design ◦ Online research and content curation ◦ Online publishing: Blogging, podcasting, YouTube, social media, etc. ◦ If you are faculty under age of 55, this will be essential  Strongest demand will be for faculty that cross extreme technology fluency with their field ◦ i.e. Bioinformatics, Big Data/Analytics + Your Field
  • 71. Conclusion  Role of the university is to enable the faculty’s success in a market where the university will only be one revenue channel for most faculty  Labor laws will need to adjust for blurring line between contractor and full-time employee  Some faculty will need to be retrained for other employment  Millennials are more likely to adjust to a faculty/entrepreneur market as 60% of millennials consider themselves entrepreneurs The Power of Millennial Entrepreneurship. (n.d.). Retrieved January 12, 2016, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/britt-hysen/the-power-of-millennial-e_b_5801322.html
  • 72. Lean Startup for Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 73. Backwards (Waterfall) Program Design Audience is Traditional Students Outcomes for Well-Defined Fields Assessments Based on Known Outcomes Instruction with Known Content Available Feedback Iteration Is Years
  • 74. Best Development Methodology Changes Based on Environment Development Methodology We know what customers want We know how to deliver it Waterfall √ √ Agile √ ? Lean Startup ? ? Problem Solution Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
  • 75. Waterfall vs. Agile vs. Lean Design Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/ (Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)
  • 76. Lean Startup Process Build MeasureLearn Product (start with minimum viable product) Data Pivot Maximize Loop Iteration Speed Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
  • 77. How Do You Reach 6 Billion People without Access to Higher Education? Design for 4 Interrelated Uncertainties Changing Students Changing Goals Affordable Content Availability Costs Different students based on different goals, content and costs. $1,000 degree vs. $10k degree What goals are realistic given the students, costs and content? Different costs, goals and students will present different content options + content & platforms are rapidly changing. Different content availability, goals and students will allow radically different costs.
  • 78. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis for Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 79. Demographic Shifts in the US: The End of the Good Times Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
  • 80. Change High School Graduate by State Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
  • 81. Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
  • 84. Changing global postsecondary/ tertiary student demographics >75% from low or mid-income countries 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 28M 177M >250M Enrolled tertiary students Increasing ratio of woman to men in higher education Source: UNESCO via http://www.slideshare.net/BlackboardInc/todays-students-need-more-than-an-lms
  • 85. Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf Global Projection on Tertiary Education (baseline and optimistic)
  • 86. Global Projection on Tertiary Education (four scenerios) Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
  • 87. Growth of Private Education Globally  Private education globally has a growing market share for decades: now at 30% of global market  Regions with highest private education ◦ >70% private: Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Korea ◦ About 20-30%: South Asia, Latin America, Africa ◦ <15% private: China, Southeast Asia, New Zealand Source: Private Higher Education: A Global Revolution. (2005). Rotterdam: Sense Publishers.
  • 88. Source: "U.S. Federal Spending-Share of Mandatory vs. Discretionary Spending" by Farcaster - Time series chart created from CBO data plus author computations. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png#/media/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png
  • 89. Expenditures in the United States federal budget. (2016, January 25). In Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Expenditures_in_the_United_States_federal_budget&oldid=701618119
  • 90. Summary of Key Trends Traditional Higher Education Nontraditional Students Emerging Markets Private Education Technology
  • 91. College Access, the Opportunity Divide & the Race between Technology and Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 92. Three Waves of History Agricultural Industrial Informatio n Primary/Secondary School Higher Education
  • 95. Decline of Farm Jobs Source: ong depression – azizonomics. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://azizonomics.com/tag/long-depression/
  • 96. 20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  • 97. Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014) 47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013) Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2014). Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in the United States (DISCONTINUED). Retrieved November 21, 2014, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USAPEFANA/
  • 98. 21st Century Challenge: College Graduation
  • 99. Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  • 100. “Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.” - H.G. Wells Image from Wikipedia
  • 101. Who is Winning the Race Between Education & Technology? -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1915-1980 1980-2005 AnnualGrowth Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring Degrees Education > Tech Job Loss Education Winning Technology Winning Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  • 102. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  • 103. Changing our Educational Trajectory Source: Lumina Foundation Vision
  • 104. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2025 2050 2075 2093 Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA) Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
  • 105. The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/ College Access Focus: the Bottom Half 37 pt. growth 3 pt. growth 6 pt. growth 19 pt. growth Traditional College Focus Disruptive Innovation Opportunity
  • 106. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2025 2050 2075 2100 Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile (Disruptive Innovation Opportunity) Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
  • 107. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2025 2050 2075 2100 Difference in Projected Educational Attainment Straight Line Projection No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
  • 108. College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile Source: Percentage of Students Entering and Completing College, and College Persistence, by Income Quartile | Russell Sage Foundation. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom
  • 109. The Problem with Credentialism and Educational Inflation The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the gap has recently been around $2,000. Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_inflation and College May Not Pay Off for Everyone Liberty Street Economics. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VqfMe9Q4G72
  • 110. Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by Level of Household Net Worth Source: Three Signs That Young Americans Are Getting a Raw Deal | BillMoyers.com. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://billmoyers.com/2015/02/24/three-signs-young-americans-getting-raw-deal/
  • 111. Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018
  • 112. The Opportunity Divide: Mismatch of Jobs & Education Jobs in 2018 People in 2012 Difference Less than High School 10% 12.42% -2.4% High School Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7% Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0% Associate’s Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6% Bachelor’s Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5% Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018
  • 113. Image Source: Wikimedia Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees US Average Global Average Top Income Quartile 3rd Income Quartile 1st & 2nd Income Quartile
  • 114. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 115. 3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education “Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.” - Peter Drucker, 1997 “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara) “In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.” - Clayton Christensen, 2013 Image Source: Wikimedia
  • 116. What Change Agents & Innovators Should Avoid
  • 117. Disruptive Innovation Theory Image Source: Wikimedia We are here Proven Data Theoretical Projection
  • 118. What Skeptics of Disruptive Innovation Should Avoid
  • 119. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation Change Agent Change Agency Your Institution Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
  • 120. Sequence of Change Agent Roles 1. To help clients see a need for change 2. To establish an information exchange relationship 3. To diagnose problems 4. To create an intent to change in the client 5. To translate intentions into action 6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance 7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
  • 121. Determinants of Success of Change Agents 1. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting clients 2. A client orientation rather than a change agency orientation 3. The degree to which the diffusion program is compatible with clients’ needs 4. The change agent’s empathy with clients 5. His or her homophily with clients 6. Credibility in the clients’ eyes 7. The extent to which he or she works through opinion leaders 8. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovations Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
  • 122. Environmentally Adaptive “The Is” or Likely Future Internally Driven “The Ought” or Preferred Future Past Future Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf My Primary Expertise (change agency) Your Understanding (change agent) Dialogue A Framework for Discussion “The Is vs. The Ought”
  • 123. Constraints on Innovation  Debt/Lack of capital  Current cost structure  Commitment to faculty  Physical plant/sunk cost  Political realities  Lack of core competency in innovation  Missional constraints  Outdated underlying worldview/myths
  • 124. Mechanisms of Diffusion of Innovation  Online Courses (this course)  Conferences, workshops, webinars  Formal education: degrees, courses, lectures  Media: books, videos, websites, magazines, software, open resources  Employment: Staff training  Networks: Professional networks & associations, networks of peers  Programs, products and their replication  Personal: Consulting, word of mouth  Publications: Open source software/open contentWho are the leaders in innovation?
  • 125. Methods Market Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market Mission Mission Does Not Change! (unless your mission is defined by methods & and market)
  • 126. How do you define your mission? “We are the best plowmen in farming” Source: File:Winslow Homer - The Plowman (1878).jpg - Wikimedia Commons. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winslow_Homer_-_The_Plowman_(1878).jpg
  • 127. 1. BOP Strategies 2. Unbundling 3. Cradle to grave education ecosystem 4. Education on demand (Race with the machine) 1. Economics of Online Education 2. Mega-Universities 3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts 4. Increasing Costs Sustainability Challenges to Higher Education in the USA (paradigms)
  • 128. Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf Environmental (adaptive) vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy
  • 129. Using this Course for Discussion Groups 1. Identify those with the power to bring change 2. Have them review this course and other helpful material 3. Organize a discussion group on implications for your institution 4. Develop a strategy to move toward change 5. Develop experiments to move toward change As educators the primary thing we can do is to educate those who have the power to bring change.
  • 130. Case Study Lessons for Faculty and Higher Education Institutions Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 131. Effect of the Long Tail: 80/20 Rule Becomes the 60/40 Rule 80% of profit comes from 20% of products 60% of profit comes from 40% of products
  • 132. Effects of the Long Tail & Higher Education  Long Tail Increases Diversity of Content ◦ Blockbuster Video: 80% of rentals are recent “blockbusters,” only carries 75 documentaries ◦ Netflix: 30% of rentals are “blockbusters” and carries 1,180 documentaries ◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000)  Long Tail of Search Terms (TechMission Websites) ◦ Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors ◦ 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors  Long Tail’s Implications for Diversity and College Access ◦ Non-Western culture voices are almost entirely on the long tail. ◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by big media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices. ◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.
  • 133. The Chris Anderson Paradox Content Is King Content Is Commoditized Best in the World Original Content Is King Second Best Content Is Commoditized
  • 134. Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail Journalism Video Publishing Ideas Courses Credentialing Disruptive Competency Based Education Traditional Degree
  • 135. Publishing as a Case Study 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship 1. Trade Books in Print 2. Trade eBooks 3. Indie eBooks MarketShare Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html Trade is World’s Best Indie is Long Tail
  • 136. Publishing as a Case Study: Best vs. Long Tail 0.003% 0.08% 0.40% 2.00% 3.00% 4.50% 8.00% 11.25% 15.00% 19.25% 24.00% 29.25% 35.00% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship 1. Trade Books in Print 2. Trade eBooks 3. Indie eBooks 4. Total Indie Market Share 5. Total Trade Market Share MarketShare Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html Trade is World’s Best Indie is Long Tail
  • 137. As More Students Go Online Will Traditional Higher Education Follow Market Share Trajectory of Publishing? Chart from: Allen, I. E., & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade change: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Ouahog Research Group. Retrieved from www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradechange.pdf
  • 138. Journalism & Newspapers as a Case Study Sources: Mark Perry. (2012, September 6). CARPE DIEM: Free-fall: Adjusted for Inflation, Print Newspaper Advertising Will be Lower This Year Than in 1950. Retrieved from http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/ Journalism Jobs down 42% from their peak Sources (listed above or
  • 139. Factors that Affect Susceptibility to Disruption  Is there a technology core that could rapidly innovate? ◦ Yes. Online/digital education  How much is the industry regulated? ◦ Moderately: Higher education vs. energy or pharmaceuticals (most regulated)  Are there new industries requiring incumbent’s core competencies? ◦ i.e. Landline phone companies becoming mobile operators ◦ i.e. Cable television becoming broadband Internet providers  Is there very high investment cost to enter market? ◦ i.e. Energy and pharmaceuticals  Are there only a few competitors? ◦ i.e. Television Networks Sources: Rob Perrons. (2013, September). Why the energy technology revolution hasn’t happened: Robert Perrons at TEDxQUT. Presented at the TEDx Talks, Queensland University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=FeG0-goXmjA
  • 140. Corporate Strategy Principles from Case Studies  Best in the world content corporate strategy ◦ Increase scale and market power through consolidation ◦ Develop tech capacity, hybrid solutions and value innovation strategies ◦ Cut costs to prepare for declining market share ◦ Invest in digital growth and diversify into other growth markets ◦ Use regulation to limit competition or to provide increased subsidy  Long tail corporate strategy ◦ Core competency is technology ◦ Dramatically reduce per-unit cost through crowdsourcing ◦ Work to commoditize long tail content so you capture value as aggregator ◦ Self-regulate to avoid regulation ◦ Leverage strength of long tail in cost, diversity and globalization
  • 141. Personal Strategy Principles from Case Studies  Best in the world content personal strategy ◦ Find your “idea worth sharing” niche where you can be best in the world ◦ Use multi-channel marketing to develop your brand: books, online, articles, speaking, presentations, blog, podcasts, videos, university affiliation, etc.  Long tail personal strategy ◦ Develop efficiency for volume production to make a living in a low per-unit cost market ◦ Increase revenue by moving upscale by increasing quality ◦ Increase revenue by using multi-channel marketing ◦ Recognize that employers receive 100 times as many resumes, so get your name out there 100 times a much
  • 142. Unbundling, Innovation and the Changing Landscape of Accreditation and Regulation Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 143. Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker
  • 144. Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker
  • 145. From Faculty Centric to Student Centric Unbundling and Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty Regulators InnovatorsIncumbents Students Faculty Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits & faculty salaries) to consumer surplus (lower tuition and increased student benefits)
  • 146. Porter’s Five Forces Model, Accreditation & Regulation Competitiv e Rivalry Threat of New Entry Buyer Power Threat of Substitut es Supplier Power (faculty) Faculty Power Increased by • Faculty-driven accreditation requirements (ratios, PhDs) Faculty Power Decreased by: • Lax laws for contractors • Requirements for financial solvency Regulation for Efficient Market: • Credit portability • Course-based accreditation (ACE) Protective Strategy: • Exclusivity of regional accreditation Protective Strategy: • Increased regulation (of for profit schools) • Increased accreditation requirements • State authorization requirements Regulation for Efficient Market: • College Scorecard • RoI/Cost/Performance Pressures Protective Strategy: • Information Asymmetry • Differentiation & Increased Tuition Protective Strategy: • Government bailout
  • 147. Lean Startup, Innovation & the Problem with the Current Assessment Model for Accreditation Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/ (Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)
  • 148. Blue Ocean Strategy, Value Innovation and the Problem with Current Accreditation Metrics
  • 149. Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time Image Source: Wikimedia
  • 150.  Output vs. input
  • 151. Recommendations  Support more modular accreditation (course level and unit level) ◦ ACE Credit Recommendation
  • 152. For Profit Higher Education
  • 153. Current Stage of Online Education 1st Wave For Profit 2nd Wave (Courseware Tech Ecosystems) Image Source: Wikimedia Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education
  • 154. 3. Growth of For-Profits Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 155. Growth of For-Profit Education Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 156. For-Profits Dominate Age 22 and above Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 157. For-Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 158. For-Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 159. Average Revenue per Student Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 160. Average Spending Per Student Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 161. For-Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 162. For-Profits Have Highest Load Debt Per Student Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 163. Instructional Spending by Type Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  • 164. University of Phoenix (2010) Enrollment = 600,000
  • 165. University of Phoenix (2015) Enrollment = 215,000
  • 166. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
  • 167. Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf Environmental (adaptive) vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy
  • 168. Disruptive Innovation & the Is-Ought Distinction God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, The courage to change the things I can, And the wisdom to know the difference. Just because something is happening does not mean it should happen.
  • 169. A Best Guess on Wisdom Things I cannot change  Massive consolidation in higher education  Western education eclipsed by “the rest”  Future dominance of technology in education  Baumol’s cost disease  Changing roles of faculty  Future growth of traditional Western Christian higher education Thing I can change  Pursue strategies to achieve scale  Develop business models for BoP  Embrace tech as core competency  Cut cost, automate and unbundle for efficiency  Retrain faculty for economic future  Invest in new growth markets
  • 170. Three Visions for Future Growth of HE 1. Government ◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education: Obamacare for Higher Education ◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students ◦ Challenge: increases secularizing influence of government education 2. Global Educational Conglomerate ◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4 tech companies offering free education with a small payment for the credential ◦ Challenge: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media conglomerates 3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education ◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand Christian market share in post-secondary education Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
  • 171. - 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,800,000,000 2,000,000,000 1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 Christian Membership by Region West South Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
  • 172. 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 South 21% 59% 86% 91% 99% West 79% 41% 14% 9% 1% 21% 59% 86% 91% 99% 79% 41% 14% 9% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Growth of Christianity by Region Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
  • 173. Christian Mega-universities & Growth Liberty U 43% Grand Canyon U 39% All of CCCU 18% Estimated Growth Since 2005 Total Growth: 175,808 students Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
  • 174. Methods Market Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market Mission Mission Does Not Change! (unless your includes methods and market)
  • 175. Essential Elements of Christian Education 1. Christian worldview 2. Christian community 3. Christian content 4. Christian care for stakeholders
  • 176. Process for Modular Christian Education Theology & Christian Worldview Audience, Pedagogy & Goals Christian Community, Transformative Experience & Metacognitive Education Christian Courses Theology Courses Secular Courseware Secular MOOCs & Open Education ResourcesSubjects
  • 177. Components Packaged in a Traditional Degree Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf and http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/ The Core Competencies of Christian Education are the Hardest to Replace (Life Transformation & Metacognition) (Affective) (Cognitive) (Psychomotor) (Metacognition)
  • 181. Rebundling Example: Online Christian Education Knowledge Acquisition Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Transformative Experience Workplace Mentoring Online Education Degree Internship/ Practicum Pastoral Mentoring Service Learning Discipleship Program International or Urban Immersion
  • 182. View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem. Nearly Free Content & Innovation Christian College (Life Transformation) + Better Than Government Subsidized State University In a platform world, how do we make the entire Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive? Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy
  • 183. Traditional Higher Education Traditional Monastery Higher Education Model Local Christian Community Practical Work ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor Distant From Students
  • 184. Re-bundling Online Education with Church Study Groups & Internships Local Discipleship & Study Groups Practical Work Experience Distant From Students Instructor
  • 185. What business has the most locations in the USA? 14,146 25,900 Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.html http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/ 314,000 What institution has the most locations in the USA?
  • 186. Strategic Implications of Prospect of Faith-Based Institutions Losing Federal Aid Bottom Half Strategy  Job prep/RoI focus  Increase automation  Christian ecosystem  More international focus  Focus on scale  Could benefit from CBE  More focus on the poor Lose Federal Aid Strategy  Job prep/RoI Focus  Increase automation  Christian ecosystem  More international focus  Focus on scale  CBE likely to allow CHE  More focus on the rich Developing a bottom-half strategy also prepares for a world without federal aid.
  • 187. Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation  Christian Mega-universities ◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon  Competency Based Education ◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting  Radically New Education Models ◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision  Christian Open Education (next slide)  Investment and Outsourcing Companies ◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education  Global Innovators ◦ Global University  Course Vendors & Clearinghouses ◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House
  • 188. Christian(Jesus) Community Colleges MOOCs & Open Ed Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn Open2study, Udemy, Khan Academy, Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI Christian Mega Universities Liberty, Grand Canyon Affordable Tech Sector Christian Innovation Sector Affordable Christian SectorKey: Black Accredited. Orange Content Provider Green Community Partners Competency Based Western Governors College for America State Colleges Christian Universities in Developing Countries daystar.ac.ke Paid Courseware Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight Affordable Bible Colleges ABHE Schools Online Christian Universities ACE Credit Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia UC Irvine Extension, Dream Degree Christian Open Ed ChristianCourses.com, Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Openseminary.com BiblicalTraining.org, Harvestime.org, http://thirdmill.org, Christian CEU Providers insight.org/CEU, lifepointemedia.com, lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, precept.org/ceu, sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies, hristiancounselingceu.com Paid Christian Wholesale Course Providers Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, onlinesbs.org/esbs/ Bible Institutes TUMI, NYDS Open Textbooks saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/ Missions/Ministry Training Mission Year, YWAM U Nations, IHOP U Developing Country Tech Kepler.org, Avu.edu, elearningafrica.com, Coursera Learning Hub, MIT Ulabs, U of People, Pearson Affordable Learning Training Centers Qualifications Providers Industry Map Higher Ed in Developing Countries Christian Employers Employer Paid Tuition Partners Internship Sites 70+ Ministries Discipleship Study Centers (in churches and ministries)
  • 189. Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnam 5 pt. decline 10 pt. decline Gap Doubles to 10 points 5 point gap Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among the poor affecting their church attendance?
  • 190. Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses  Free or Open Christian Content Providers ◦ Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org  Aggregators of Christian Course Content: ◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo  Low Cost Christian CEU Providers ◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com  Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers ◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, CUGN.org
  • 192. Create Matrix Map of Divisions Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
  • 193. Example Matrix Map Source: Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass. Matrix Map is similar to Growth Share Matrix used in Business Strategy. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Growth%E2%80%93share_matrix&oldid=695752726
  • 194. Who Has Jobs by Education? 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% Less Than High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College or Associate's Bachelor's Degree Source: StLouisFed FRED. May 2015
  • 195. Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education
  • 196. Does Technology Hurt or Help the Poor?
  • 197. Ability of Institutional Models to Cross the Chasm and Serve the Unreached Bottom Half Radically Accessib le Radically Affordabl e Tech Innovato r Cultura l Match Remedia l Educatio n Disruptive Christian College      Community College & Mega-universities  Somewhat   For-Profit College   Varies High-Priced Online   Varies Traditional Christian College State SchoolsCity Vision serves the bottom half socioeconomically (bottom 75% in graduate programs)
  • 198. Blue Ocean Strategy and New Value Innovation Business Models Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 199. Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas for Southwest Airlines
  • 200. Overview of Blue Ocean Strategy and Value Innovation
  • 201. Adaptive Learning and Competency Based Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu
  • 202. Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail Journalism Video Publishing Expertise Courses Credentialing Disruptive Competency Based Education Traditional Degree
  • 203. ScalabilityLow-TechHigh-Touch Pace of PersonalizationMore Static Continuously Adaptive High-Tech,Low-Touch Face-to-Face Tutoring Differentiated Instruction Correspondence Courses Static MOOCs Computer-Based Instruction Online Courses Mastery Learning CBE (Western Governors) Adaptive CBE PLA Portfolio Blended Adaptive (Khan Academy) Credit By Exam Classroom Instruction High-Fixed Cost Low-Per Student Cost Low-Fixed Cost High-Per Student Cost Mapping Modes of Education Source: Initial Chart idea from Brian Flemming. (2015, May). Adaptive Learning: The Breakthrough Innovation Impacting Education Today. Eduventures Online Webinar. Retrieved from bit.ly/1HGerOS. Andrew Sears made many additions and changes to chart.

Editor's Notes

  1. Welcome to the course Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education. I’m Andrew Sears, and I’m the President of City Vision University. For the past 20 years I’ve been living among and working with the poor using disruptive educational technologies. Before that, co-founded MIT's Internet Telephony Consortium with one of the fathers of the Internet (David Clark)) focused on disruption in the telecommunications industry. I used that expertise in disruptive innovation to  work as a consultant to Sprint, venture capitalist and internet startups. Before we get into the course, let me give you a bit of my background. Part of what is unique about the University I lead, City Vision University, is that it’s a small startup university working to be a pioneer in bringing radically affordable education through a $2,000 associate's degree and a $5,000 bachelor's degree. Let me tell you why I created this course. I just finished reading tens of thousands of pages and hundreds of articles and videos as a part of my doctoral dissertation. I have literally put thousands of hours of work into the materials in this course just as if I were publishing a book. I am providing it for free because I want to see change happen in this industry.
  2. Next part of my talk will focus on disruptive innovation. Big debate on whether there will where be disruptive innovation. Some people are overzealous in their forecasts and others live in denial. MIT’s Internet Telephony Consortium with one of the fathers of the Internet Fairly accurately forecasted industry Saw the hype wave Domestically: Primarily enhanced services rather than displaced in USA: Video It was disruptive internationally, but not domestically (yet) Domestically: retiring entire phone system with a VoIP system (largely with same players) Internationally: skype has more minutes internationally than all the other carriers combined Now I’m forecasting within Higher Education
  3. Desktop, Laptop, Notebook, Tablet, now Smartphone. Moving to Wearables, and then Driveables
  4. Basic idea of disruptive innovation is that a new technology comes around like digital cameras Starts out worse that even the worst alternative. Gradually gets better until it eventually displaces most of existing market Examples: digital cameras, travel agents, mobile phones, Netflix vs. Blockbuster, e-readers I used to work for venture capitalists and I was the guy who would go in and assess the state of the technology Low quality campuses are rapidly closing, largely because good online education is better than poor quality. Three tests of disruptive innovation Large market of people who cannot afford current product? Are there enough customers at low end who will pay for a lower performance product to sustain the business? Is it disruptive or a sustaining innovation? Can existing institutions effectively use disruption to stave off competition?
  5. Companies serving innovators and early adopters are rarely the same as the companies that end up dominating the market in later stages iPhones, Google, Facebook, Skype We are still in the early adopter stage of online education: call the LMS stage Predict that we are about to go into a courseware stage
  6. Note: CCCU cumulative discount rate went up by about 10% (from 25.1% in 2001 to 34% in 2010) over similar period of tuition increase, so net increase is slightly less.
  7. The average worker in the US in 2001, can do the work of 60 workers in 1500 (Maddison, 2004).
  8. Tertiary Education Stats from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOTjtsrKOqI By 2050, between 1 and 2.5 billion people will have a tertiary education. Market: $900 billion market in 2005, $1.5 trillion in 2012, $2.5 trillion 2017 # students outside Western countries: 30 million in 1980, 140 million in 2010 84% of growth from developing countries from 2000 to 2010 Mexico 1.9 million to 2.8 million in past decade India: under 10 million to over 20 million in past decade
  9. Key part of my dissertation is the use of a scenario for Higher Education in 2035 Borrow ideas from Abelard to Apple, Idea of the Digital University, College Unbound, Disrupting Class
  10. Retail & ecommerce Operational effectiveness & scale Netflix, Blockbuster & Cable Companies Offer high value both/and product Invest in digital growth not physical growth Liberty, Southern New Hampshire: halfway doing digital growth and physical growth VoIP/Skype Domestic vs. Global Dominance Journalism Shifting role of faculty Farming Innovate & consolidate
  11. Be all things to all people vs. specialization
  12. Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university Does the university have to be all things to all people? Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse But it is what the trend is toward
  13. Freshman/Sophomore years are getting commoditized. Only question will be will it be the private sector or government. The best chess players in the world are freestyle chess players. Prepare people to live in a world like that. Be very high tech when you need to be high tech, and that enables you to be even more high touch when you need to be high touch.
  14. Universities are experiencing immense pressure from changes to the industry structure. Growing buyer power, new entrants, substitutes are all increasing competitive rivalry and driving overcapacity and consolidation. The one strategic outlet that universities have is that technology changes are also driving decreased supplier power for faculty. In other words, it is a perfect storm for wrecking the faculty market.
  15. Universities are experiencing immense pressure from changes to the industry structure. Growing buyer power, new entrants, substitutes are all increasing competitive rivalry and driving overcapacity and consolidation. The one strategic outlet that universities have is that technology changes are also driving decreased supplier power for faculty. In other words, it is a perfect storm for wrecking the faculty market.
  16. Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university Does the university have to be all things to all people? Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse But it is what the trend is toward
  17. What are the responses? Subsidy (Detroit Automakers). Government will save us. Unions (limited to institution’s financial viability): Hostess union Regulation Retraining Reason why power is shifting from the faculty to the administration Boards are responsible for financial viability of the institution Faculty may find it hard to balance the budget and make decisions that might be against their self-interest. What if alternative models like Western Governors are more effective? The organizational requirements for new market dynamics require stronger executive functions. See Organizational Design by Burton Universities increasingly require specialized knowledge to run.
  18. 73% of college students are non-traditional. Increasingly, we are preparing students for jobs that don’t exist. How can you prepare students if you don’t know what fields you are preparing them for. Teach how to think. That is some of it, but also need to stay current. 90% of the world’s data was generated in the last 2 years. Each year I do my courses, there are radically different content and platforms available. Pace of change is accelerating
  19. Changing learners: Even the things we’ve been doing for a long time – access, needs to be done for more and different people. And those things that are new – competition – requires a depth of understanding of learners – and who they are continues to change We are seeing changing demographics. Across the globe…
  20. “Looking regionally and working in descending order beginning with the regions with the largest private sector, Asia comes first (PROPHE, 2008). East Asia has the largest concentration of countries with proportionally larger private sectors. Countries with over 70 percent of enrolments in private higher education include Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and the Republic of Korea. Malaysia approaches 50 percent. China and much of Southeast Asia (e.g., Cambodia and Vietnam) remain below 15 percent but are experiencing rapid expansion, although total cohort enrolment rates are still quite low. Thailand and New Zealand are just marginally below 15 percent, Australia around 3 percent. South Asia sees striking private growth, with India above 30 percent (Gupta, et al., 2008) and Pakistan not too far behind. Toward western Asia data are spottier but Kazakhstan and Iran are roughly half private.” p80 “Compared to Asia, Latin America has had more stable private higher education shares, but the most striking case of stable shares is the United States-hovering between 20 and 25 percent for decades (compared to roughly 50 percent enrolment in the mid-twentieth century). US proportional stagnation, juxtaposed to global growth, leaves the present US private higher education enrolment share below the global share, though obviously US private higher education is the most important in the world-with the largest absolute private enrolment and towering above other systems in its graduate enrolment, research activity, and finance.” p 81
  21. Each Wave Creates a Revolution in Social Institutions Agricultural Age Industrial Age (brings urbanization) Increased need for Primary & Secondary Education Information Age (brings virtualization) Increased need for Higher Education The basic analogy I’m going to use for my talk is the lessons that the church has learned from urbanization, which is the largest mass migration in history. I would like to argue that we are going through another mass migration, to the virtualization of the world into online and digital formats. There are lessons that we can learn from how the church responded to urbanization that we can apply to this second mass migration.
  22. Beginning of 20th century, less than 10% of the US graduated high school. Straight trendline of growth between 1910 and 1960 Then in the 1960’s, you started to face more intractable problems There were people who suggested that universal secondary education was essential. I believe that we are facing something similar
  23. Sounds like doom and gloom, but to quote HG Wells, history has
  24. Between 1915 and 1980, education raced ahead of technology by about 1% per year Between 1980 and now, technology raced ahead of education by about 1.5% per year
  25. The book The Race between Education and Technology shows that between 1900 and 1980, we were effectively winning the race with automation, but since 1980 there was a dramatic slowdown in the growth rate of people getting college degrees: from 3.83%, it decreased to 2.43%, a decrease of 1.4% growth per year Race summary: Between 1915-1980 education supply raced ahead of technology (3.19% annual growth vs. 2.27% growth) p 321 Between 1940-1960 education supply raced ahead of technology (2.63% annual growth vs. 1.79% growth) p 321 Between 1980-2005 education supply was behind technology (2.00% annual growth vs. 3.48% growth) The challenge is how to change our educational trajectory. I’ve borrowed a diagram for the Lumina foundation that does a good job of visualizing the challenge society is facing in this area. The orange line represents a change to our educational trajectory to provide 60% degree attainment by 2025 The blue line is our current trajectory. It seems likely that we will be significantly losing the race with automation. Note this is the average, so its obviously a lot worse for the poor. The basis of my dissertation is that disruptive innovation in higher education could enable low cost degrees that could change our trajectory and the trajectory for education globally. Would a degree for $1,000 a year be as good as an expensive degree? Maybe not, but it could be good enough.
  26. The book The Race Between Education and Technology shows that between 1900 and 1980, we were effectively winning the race with automation 1% per year, but since 1980 there was a dramatic slowdown in the growth rate of people getting college degrees where we are losing by 1.5% per year.
  27. Unless you are in the talented tenth of the bottom half, then you don’t go to college
  28. Companies serving innovators and early adopters are rarely the same as the companies that end up dominating the market in later stages iPhones, Google, Facebook, Skype We are still in the early adopter stage of online education: call the LMS stage Predict that we are about to go into a courseware stage
  29. Next part of my talk will focus on disruptive innovation. Big debate on whether there will where be disruptive innovation. Some people are overzealous in their forecasts and others live in denial. MIT’s Internet Telephony Consortium with one of the fathers of the Internet Fairly accurately forecasted industry Saw the hype wave Domestically: Primarily enhanced services rather than displaced in USA: Video It was disruptive internationally, but not domestically (yet) Domestically: retiring entire phone system with a VoIP system (largely with same players) Internationally: Skype has more minutes internationally than all the other carriers combined Now I’m forecasting within Higher Education
  30. Clayton Christensen uses this slide at the beginning of all his talks. I think part of it is that all sides of these debates can fall into this trap. I will bring change to my school because a miracle happens. Disruptive innovation will inevitably happen because of a miracle without examining the detail We will be sustainable because of a miracle without examining the detail As Christians we actually do expect miracles, but we don’t use them as an excuse to avoid doing the hard work. “Pray as though everything depended on God. Work as if everything depends on you.”
  31. Before Moore’s Law was Moore’s law, it was Moore’s unreasonable expectation on the employees of Intel. But Moore also understood the basic physics of the transistor, and that there was no fundamental limitation for decades to his law. The economics of online are similar. There are no fundamental reasons why the growth rate will not continue.
  32. Change agents as Linkers The main role of the change agent is to facilitate the flow of innovations from a change agency to an audience of clients Change agents usually possess a high degree of expertise regarding the innovations that are being diffused
  33. vs. We are an organic farm. Organic farming is only 5% of market. Are you competitive enough out of thousands of schools to survive to be that 5%?
  34. The 80/20 rule states that 80% of the profits come from 20% of the products. Shown in the blue line, which has a very steep drop That is now changing with the Internet as shown in the black line where now 60% of profits come from 40% of the products Huge implications on increasing content diversity and that has huge implications for missions
  35. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale. Retail & ecommerce, Farming Offer both/and products to compete. Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths. Journalism & News: New York Times Invest in digital growth not physical growth. Blockbuster vs. Netflix Retail & ecommerce Operational effectiveness & scale Netflix, Blockbuster & Cable Companies Offer high value both/and product Invest in digital growth not physical growth Liberty, Southern New Hampshire: halfway doing digital growth and physical growth VoIP/Skype Domestic vs. Global Dominance Journalism Shifting role of faculty Farming Innovate & consolidate
  36. Companies serving innovators and early adopters are rarely the same as the companies that end up dominating the market in later stages iPhones, Google, Facebook, Skype We are still in the early adopter stage of online education: call the LMS stage Predict that we are about to go into a courseware stage
  37. MIT Background
  38. 121 Members of CCCU