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Space Debris, a Threat to GNSS and its 
                Applications to Civil Aviation


                                                        By Thibaut LABARRE
                                                       Student from the ENAC




   Current Situation
   Threat to Satellites
   Influence on GNSS Reliability
   Solutions
     RAeS ­ 17/02/2009    Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S                      1
History of Collisions

    24 July 1996: 
     Cerise            Ariane  V16 (debris)
    17 January 2005: 
     Thor (Stage)           rocket CZ­4 (debris)
    December 1991 (collision identified in 2005):
      Cosmos 1934            Cosmos 926 (debris)
    12 February 2009: 
     Iridium               Cosmos 2251
 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009         Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   2
Current Situation (1/4)

    Evolution of the number of debris (>10 cm) from 
     1960 to 2008




                         (1 centimeter = 0.393700787 inch)

 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009             Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S    3
Current Situation (2/4)

    GEO Space Debris 2008




 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009          Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   4
Current Situation (3/4)

    Since 1957 : 
          4000 launches
          More than 200 fragmentations of orbiting objects



 • 12,000 objects bigger than 10 cm
   (referenced)

 • 200,000 objects sizing between 1 and 10 cm
   (not referenced)
                                                          fragments
 • 35,000,000 objects smaller than 1 cm                   operating satellites
   (not referenced)                                       unoperating satellites
 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009           Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   superior stages      5
                                                          operational debris
Curent Situation (4/4)




 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009          Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   6
Threat to Satellites (1/3)

     Probability of collision depends on
           Size of satellite
           Time spent in space
                                                Collision probabilities for one year
           Flux of debris                 >0.1 mm           >1 mm    >1 cm    >10 cm
Space Station (h=400 km, S=500                  1              1       10-2    2 10-4
m2)
SPOT (h=800 km, S=20 m2)                        1             0,5     3 10-3   2 10-4
Constellation (h=1,500 km,S=16 m2)              1            3 10-1    10-3     10-4

GALILEO (h=23,222 km,S=3 m2 body
+ 16 m2 solar arrays)
  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009             Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S                         7
Threat to Satellites (2/3)

    Consequences of an impact
          Caracteristics of a space impact
                Kinetic energy is linked to speed
                Orbital speeds are very high
          Aluminium sphere at 10kmps
                A 1mm chip → an average .22 long rifle bullet at gunpoint
                A pea­sized ball → 180 kg safe travelling at 100 kmph
                A tennis ball­sized sphere → 25 sticks of dynamite


 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009               Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S              8
Threat to Satellites (3/3)




 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009                 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S              9
                     Part of a solar array of the Hubble Space Telescope
Influence on GNSS Reliability (1/4)
    What is GNSS?
          Global Navigation Satellite System
          Allows users to determine precisely where they are 
           on earth
    What are its applications to Civil Aviation?
          Free Flight
          Landing procedures



 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009         Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S        10
Influence on GNSS Reliability (2/4)
    Projected development of GNSS

          GPS                           1995
          GLONASS                  2009

          GALILEO                    2013     
          COMPASS                  2015
 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009      Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   11
Influence on GNSS Reliability (3/4)
        MEO (GNSS orbits) still relatively spared
                 Payloads Rocket Bodies Operational Debris Breakup Debris Anomalous Debris   Totals

LEO                   1612           758                 651            3232           119     6372

MEO                    126            28                   2              0              0      156

GEO                    587           116                   1              2              0      706

Elliptical             249           515                 135            167              0     1066

Unknown                171           120                 185              0              0      476

Totals                2745          1537                 974            3401           119     8776

        But debris will accumulate
            Operating lifespan of satellites : around 10 years
            Orbiting lifespan of satellites : millions of years
            Exponential growth due to fragmentation
 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009                         Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S                            12
Influence on GNSS Reliability (4/4)

    Civil aviation imperatives for GNSS
          Accuracy
          Availability
          Continuity
    Orbital debris endanger the last 2 imperatives
          ABAS technologies require more satellites to work
          The loss of a satellite during a critical phase of a 
           flight can have catastrophic consequences

 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009          Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S             13
Solutions (1/3)

    Armor for GNSS satellites
          Pros
                Enhances lifespan of satellites
          Cons
                Expensive (in terms of weight)
                Covers only a fraction of the risk




 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009                Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   14
Solutions (2/3)

    Dodging the debris
          Pros
                Enhances lifespan of satellites
          Cons
                Every debris trajectory has to be tracked
                Fuel consumption increases




 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009               Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   15
Solutions (3/3)
    Disposal orbits for failed GNSS satellites
          Pros
                Technically feasible
                Cheap
                Applicable to previous satellites
          Cons
                GPS, GLONASS, GALILEO, COMPASS will all have 
                 different orbits
                Disposal orbits may vary and become elliptical (due to 
                 influence from the sun and the moon), interfering with 
                 operating satellite orbits
 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009               Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S                16
Conclusion

    All the solutions are only partial and will not 
     solve the problem
    Cooperation: IADC, COPUOS, ISO




 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009     Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S       17
Thank you for listening!




                 Any questions?
 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009      Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S   18
References

    /Les débris spatiaux : une pollution sous 
     surveillance/, Lecture by Fernand Alby, Director 
     of the CNES Space Debris Lab., ENAC 
     Aerospace Challenges, jan. 2009
    http://www.pollutionissues.com/Re­Sy/Space­
     Pollution.html
    http://www.aerospace.org/news/newsitems/proc
     edures­030702.html

 RAeS ­ 17/02/2009    Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S    19

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Debris Aerospatiaux

  • 1. Space Debris, a Threat to GNSS and its  Applications to Civil Aviation By Thibaut LABARRE Student from the ENAC  Current Situation  Threat to Satellites  Influence on GNSS Reliability  Solutions  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 1
  • 2. History of Collisions  24 July 1996:  Cerise            Ariane  V16 (debris)  17 January 2005:  Thor (Stage)           rocket CZ­4 (debris)  December 1991 (collision identified in 2005):  Cosmos 1934            Cosmos 926 (debris)  12 February 2009:  Iridium               Cosmos 2251  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 2
  • 3. Current Situation (1/4)  Evolution of the number of debris (>10 cm) from  1960 to 2008 (1 centimeter = 0.393700787 inch)  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 3
  • 4. Current Situation (2/4)  GEO Space Debris 2008  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 4
  • 5. Current Situation (3/4)  Since 1957 :   4000 launches  More than 200 fragmentations of orbiting objects • 12,000 objects bigger than 10 cm (referenced) • 200,000 objects sizing between 1 and 10 cm (not referenced) fragments • 35,000,000 objects smaller than 1 cm operating satellites (not referenced) unoperating satellites  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S superior stages 5 operational debris
  • 6. Curent Situation (4/4)  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 6
  • 7. Threat to Satellites (1/3)  Probability of collision depends on  Size of satellite  Time spent in space Collision probabilities for one year  Flux of debris >0.1 mm >1 mm >1 cm >10 cm Space Station (h=400 km, S=500 1 1 10-2 2 10-4 m2) SPOT (h=800 km, S=20 m2) 1 0,5 3 10-3 2 10-4 Constellation (h=1,500 km,S=16 m2) 1 3 10-1 10-3 10-4 GALILEO (h=23,222 km,S=3 m2 body + 16 m2 solar arrays)  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 7
  • 8. Threat to Satellites (2/3)  Consequences of an impact  Caracteristics of a space impact  Kinetic energy is linked to speed  Orbital speeds are very high  Aluminium sphere at 10kmps  A 1mm chip → an average .22 long rifle bullet at gunpoint  A pea­sized ball → 180 kg safe travelling at 100 kmph  A tennis ball­sized sphere → 25 sticks of dynamite  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 8
  • 9. Threat to Satellites (3/3)  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 9 Part of a solar array of the Hubble Space Telescope
  • 10. Influence on GNSS Reliability (1/4)  What is GNSS?  Global Navigation Satellite System  Allows users to determine precisely where they are  on earth  What are its applications to Civil Aviation?  Free Flight  Landing procedures  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 10
  • 11. Influence on GNSS Reliability (2/4)  Projected development of GNSS  GPS                           1995  GLONASS                  2009  GALILEO                    2013       COMPASS                  2015  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 11
  • 12. Influence on GNSS Reliability (3/4)  MEO (GNSS orbits) still relatively spared   Payloads Rocket Bodies Operational Debris Breakup Debris Anomalous Debris Totals LEO 1612 758 651 3232 119 6372 MEO 126 28 2 0 0 156 GEO 587 116 1 2 0 706 Elliptical 249 515 135 167 0 1066 Unknown 171 120 185 0 0 476 Totals 2745 1537 974 3401 119 8776  But debris will accumulate  Operating lifespan of satellites : around 10 years  Orbiting lifespan of satellites : millions of years  Exponential growth due to fragmentation  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 12
  • 13. Influence on GNSS Reliability (4/4)  Civil aviation imperatives for GNSS  Accuracy  Availability  Continuity  Orbital debris endanger the last 2 imperatives  ABAS technologies require more satellites to work  The loss of a satellite during a critical phase of a  flight can have catastrophic consequences  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 13
  • 14. Solutions (1/3)  Armor for GNSS satellites  Pros  Enhances lifespan of satellites  Cons  Expensive (in terms of weight)  Covers only a fraction of the risk  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 14
  • 15. Solutions (2/3)  Dodging the debris  Pros  Enhances lifespan of satellites  Cons  Every debris trajectory has to be tracked  Fuel consumption increases  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 15
  • 16. Solutions (3/3)  Disposal orbits for failed GNSS satellites  Pros  Technically feasible  Cheap  Applicable to previous satellites  Cons  GPS, GLONASS, GALILEO, COMPASS will all have  different orbits  Disposal orbits may vary and become elliptical (due to  influence from the sun and the moon), interfering with  operating satellite orbits  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 16
  • 17. Conclusion  All the solutions are only partial and will not  solve the problem  Cooperation: IADC, COPUOS, ISO  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 17
  • 18. Thank you for listening! Any questions?  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 18
  • 19. References  /Les débris spatiaux : une pollution sous  surveillance/, Lecture by Fernand Alby, Director  of the CNES Space Debris Lab., ENAC  Aerospace Challenges, jan. 2009  http://www.pollutionissues.com/Re­Sy/Space­ Pollution.html  http://www.aerospace.org/news/newsitems/proc edures­030702.html  RAeS ­ 17/02/2009 Thibaut Labarre ­ IENAC08S 19