How identifying a theory of change can help you measure the success of your programs (and organization as a whole) and obtain funding to create social change.

1. Bryan Williams, MBA, CFRE
Executive Director
Community Foundation of South Lake
Using a Theory of Change
For More Effective Proposals

3. Agenda
 Section 1: What is a theory of change?
 Section 2: Why is it important?
 Section 3: How do I develop a theory of change?
 Section 4: How to I incorporate it into a proposal?
 Section 5: Pitfalls to avoid

4. CFSLC's Granting Strategy
 Strengthen relationships with grantees
 Support nonprofit resilience
 Learn for improvement
 Collaborate*
* Grantmakers for Effective Organizations

5. CFSLC's Granting Strategy
 Set by grant committee
 Currently focused on measuring impact
 Committed to significant community change
 Moving from smaller grants to larger, front loaded grants
 Grants are available, starts with a letter of intent

6. Program Life Cycle
Funding
Opportunity
Funding
Opportunity

7. Guiding Principles
“Theory of change is a basic set of principles or values
about the way we do our work.”
What is a Theory of Change?

8. Types of Theories
 Systemic Social Change
 Comprehensive Community
 Organizational
 Single Program
 Very important for a single organization to
understand its role within a complex problem

9. What is a theory of change?
 Theory of Change defines all building blocks required to bring about
a given long-term goal. This set of connected building blocks–
interchangeably referred to as outcomes, results, accomplishments,
or preconditions is depicted on a map known as a pathway of
change, which is a graphic representation of the change process.*
 It is specific to your program or organization, not general
 Logic Model versus Theory of Change
* www.theoryofchange.org

10. What is a theory of change?
 It is a tool for setting, goals, strategies, and success measures
 It's a set of connected activities
 People tend to overcomplicate it
 My definition: testing or scaling an idea for generating significant
social change within a constituency and figuring out whether we are
right or wrong

11. What is a theory of change?
 Typical Grant:
 We have X program that helps Y constituents, we've
historically seen Z results.
 Give us more money to do X
 Theory of Change Grant:
 The problem is X. We want to accomplish Y. We
think we can accomplish Y for X by doing Z
 Give us money to prove Z

12. Testing “A theory is something you test. Ideally, its
components are based on empirical research, but -
and this is the point - the theory is not proven."
Why is it important?

13. Why is it important?
Foundations that use Theory of Change to determine funding:
Kauffman Foundation - $2 billion in assets
Gates Foundation - $41 billion
Rockefeller Foundation - $4 billion
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation - $10 billion
Kellogg Foundation - $7 billion
Annie Casey Foundation - $3 billion
Ford Foundation - $12 billion
Edna McConnell Clark Foundation - $965 million
Hewlett Packard Foundation - $110 million

14. Why is it important?
"Stakeholders value theories of change as part of program planning
and evaluation because they create a commonly understood vision
of the long-term goals, how they will be reached, and what will be
used to measure progress along the way."

15. Why is it important for funders?
 Clearly defines success
 Clearly defines target population
 Clearly defines activities
 Clearly defines success measurement
 Clearly defines evaluations
 Builds in an ability to pivot

16. Why is it important to organizations?
A theory of change should give the organization:
 A clear picture of program purpose for all staff
 A stronger sense of organizational needs
 A greater capacity for analysis
 A blueprint for evaluation
 Credibility

17. Why is it important?
 Theory of Change Grant:
 There are 14 agencies serving constituent X. Out of the 14
agencies who have been funded, agency Y has shown the
greatest results in proving their theory of change for
constituent X. CFSLC will now either fund only agency Y or
they will only fund the other agencies if they adopt the
theory of change.
 Agency Y addresses hunger with a proven theory of change.
Agency Z addresses homelessness with a proven theory of
change. Let's bring Y and Z together and see if we can create
significant social change.

18. Thoughts?
 I'm just a grant writer, what does this have to do with me?
 I entered this profession because I want to get rich.
 I entered this profession because I want to make a
difference in my community and leave a legacy.

19. Planning “A theory of change is not a program plan, but it
establishes habits of mind that let you create a good
program plan.”
How do I develop a theory of change?

20. Single Program*
1. What is the problem?
2. Who are you seeking to benefit (target population)?
3. Why do you believe your theory will work? (RESEARCH)
4. What results are you trying to achieve?
5. When will you achieve them?
6. How will you make this happen (activities, strategies, resources)?
7. How will you know if you achieved your results?
8. What will be the resulting impact?
* Modified from Matthew Forti, Six Theory of Change Pitfalls to Avoid

21. Developing a Theory of Change
 It's a roadmap that begins at the problem
 And moves to the long-term end goal and works backwards
 Components Are:
 Outcomes
 Target population
 Activities leading to outcomes
 Assumptions
 Rationales
 Indicators
 Success Measures

22. Theory of Change Example
Problem: Only 9% of students from low-income communities graduate from college
Assumptions:
 Low graduation rates are due to low college attendance rates
 Students have difficulty navigating the admissions and financial aid/scholarship process
 Students do not enter college 100% prepared for success
 Students who successfully complete year 1 of college have a greater chance of graduation
 Mentors, both adult and peer to peer, can assist with the college transition
Long Term-Outcome: Increase college graduation rates of low income students from 9% to 25%
within 5 years
Target Population: Low income students within a specified geographic area
Population versus Served: 10% of the total population of 3,477 or 347 individuals
Activities: Admissions and scholarship counseling, college preparation classes, peer to peer and adult
mentoring, and tutoring.

23. Theory of Change Example
Activity
Break into groups of 3 or 4 and develop at least
one theory of change.

24. Social Change “If you don't have a theory of change through which
that social good is going to be created, a business
plan lacks the appropriate level of focus on the
creation of social value.”
How do I incorporate it into a proposal?

25. Proposal Sections
Problem
Statement
What is the problem we
are addressing?
Who is the target
population?
Theory of Change
What are the outcomes
we are hoping for?
What activities will create
the change?
Measure and Adapt
How will we define success?
How do I prove it?

26. Building Into a Proposal
 Explain your theory of change in the opening paragraph or as early
as possible. Label it.
 Describe your comparison group
 Problem is the core, theory is the surrounding center
 If you have research, note it
 Outcomes and evaluations point back to the theory

27. It's Common “Half of nonprofits report having a theory of change,
and, of those, nearly 80 percent either created or
revised it in the past year."
Six Pitfalls to Avoid*

28. Six Pitfalls to Avoid
1. Confusing accountability with hope
 Results and measurements are stated. You will be either
right or wrong, there is no in between.
2. Creating a mirror instead of a target
 It's not what an organization is already doing
3. Failing to take external context into account
 OT, in the SWOT setting, it takes into account the potential
opportunities and threats that could enhance results or
inhibit success

29. Six Pitfalls to Avoid
4. Not confirming the plausibility of your theory
 Use outside sources - research, analysis, papers, experts,
constituents - to determine whether your theory is
supported
4. Creating a theory that isn't measurable
 Articulate the input, output, and outcome indicators; if you
can't, dig deeper
4. Assuming you've figured it all out
 There will be stumbling blocks, but if you have the ability to
consistently measure and adapt they won't be brick walls

30. Contacts and More Information
Presentation will be available under the Receive tab on our website
www.innovativephilanthropy.org
Contacts
Bryan Williams, Executive Director, bryan@cfslc.org
Tiffany Gay, Director of Community Outreach, tiffany@cfslc.org
Kathy Smith, Director of Community Investment, Kathy@cfslc.org