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RefNo | Commercial in confidence
The opportunity for LPWA solutions
Presentation
Tom Rebbeck, Michele Mackenzie & Nuno Afonso
February 2014
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Analysys Mason has considerable experience in M2M and IoT both from
client projects and from our published material
2
Country of interest
We developed forecasts of M2M device
connections and revenue for Brazil, the
Caribbean and Latin America region
(CALA) and worldwide
For a leading mobile operator, we identified and sized
quick-win opportunities in the international M2M market
and helped it develop its long-term M2M strategy
Development of a cost-benefit model for
operators and enterprises for Ericsson
We provided an assessment of M2M
market opportunity for a software vendor
For a Japanese operator, we
produced a report on the sales
channel for M2M/IoT services and
the role of MVNOs in Europe
Supporting a leading
mobile operator in
developing its strategy for
M2M and IoT services
Research on
M2M/IoT
international
opportunities for a
major European
operator
We assessed the regulatory implications
and regulatory feasibility for the
implementation of a new M2M service in
a dozen of countries
Industry research and quantitative analysis on
the global M2M market
White paper: Leadership and technology:
M2M insights for mobile network
operators
White paper: M2M transforms an
industry: evolution of heavy equipment
and dispersed assets
Overview of fleet
management in
five South-East
Asian countries
On behalf of a major regional
operator, Analysys Mason
conducted a workshop to assist
with M2M and IoT strategy
Client country
Examples of recent M2M client projects performed by Analysys Mason
We developed a list of
over 100 potential
partners, with key
information for each (e.g.
details of existing
contracts and
partnerships) for an
operator client
On behalf of a major
European incumbent
operator, Analysys Mason
conducted a market
assessment of a new type
of sensor network.
We conducted a research study to
determine the level of demand for a
satellite M2M product and to
determine end-user requirements
for hardware and software
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Key messages
▪ Strong demand exists for Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) networks
▪ The supply side is more complicated, and is threatening to delay adoption
▪ For the full report, see:
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Reports/Low-powered-wireless-
solutions-have-the-potential-to-increase-the-M2M-market-by-over-3-billion-connections/
3
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Contents
Demand
Supply
4
RefNo | Commercial in confidence 5
Low cost
No mains
power
source
required
Strong
propagation
“Working with current M2M customers, we realised that there are
more potential customers for a solution that has a low-cost
module, doesn’t need a power source - it has to work with no
power supply - and can be connected deep indoors.”
Cédric Levasseur
Network Chief Architect
Bouygues Telecom
Characteristics of LPWA
LPWA networks open new market opportunities for three main reasons
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
We believe that the total addressable market for LPWA services may be
close to 14 billion devices by 2023
6
Total addressable market and forecast of LPWA opportunity and connections, worldwide, 2013–2023
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Connections(billions)
Total addressable market Forecast of LPWA connections
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Compared to the overall IoT market, LPWA will represent over 10% of all
connected devices by 2023
7
Number of connected devices, 2023
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
Total IoT/M2M market
Connected devices
20 billion+
LPWA market
Connected devices:
3.1 billion
Connectivity revenue:
USD10.7 billion
Traditional cellular M2M
market
Connected devices:
1.4 billion
Connectivity revenue:
USD44.8 billion
“The most massive uses of M2M are still to be unlocked. The existing network
technology is not adequate for them.”
Juan Campillo, Investment Manager, Chief Commercial Digital Office
(Telefónica)
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
We believe that no specific vertical sector will dominate the opportunity
for LPWA services, unlike with traditional cellular M2M market
8
Forecast for LPWA connections
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Connections(billions)
Industrial
Consumer
Utilities
Smart buildings
Smart cities
Agriculture and environment
Logistics
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
LPWA is well suited for applications that cannot support the price of
cellular modems or connectivity and only need limited bandwidth
9
Comparison of market for LPWA and traditional cellular, 2023
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
LPWA Cellular
Connections(billions)
Unique LPWA connections Overlap Unique cellular connections
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
We expect LPWA services to generate more than USD10 billion per year
globally in connectivity revenues alone
10
Forecast of connectivity revenues from LPWA services
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
USDbillions
USD34 billion
accumulated connectivity
revenue by 2023
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
11
Vertical sector Connections Connectivity
revenues
Example applications
Smart buildings 780 million USD1.4 billion Smoke alarms, white goods
Agriculture and
environment
739 million USD4.6 billion Land monitoring, livestock monitoring,
forest monitoring
Utilities 553 million USD1.4 billion Water and gas meters, sewage pipeline
Consumer 390 million USD1.4 billion Bicycles, pets
Logistics 300 million USD780 million Container tracking, refillable tanks and
bottles
Smart cities 270 million USD740 million Street lighting, parking, waste
management
Industrial 95 million USD630 million Indoor asset tracking, pipeline monitoring
All 3.1 billion USD10.7 billion
Connections and connectivity revenue by vertical sector in 2023
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
Demand for LPWA networks, at least initially, will come from enterprise
rather than consumer applications
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Summary of the main points on LPWA demand
▪ Total addressable market for LPWA services is close to 14 billion devices by 2023
▪ LPWA can add 3 billion connections by 2023, and generate more than USD10 billion globally in connectivity
revenues alone
▪ LPWA connections are largely incremental to the traditional cellular market as it mainly enables services that
otherwise would not be feasible
▪ No specific vertical sector will dominate the opportunity for LPWA services, unlike with traditional cellular M2M
market
▪ The benefits of the ideal LPWA network, such as the low cost per module, can only be achieved with the
existence of a strong ecosystem
12
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Contents
Demand
Supply
13
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Industry needs consensus on which technology to support
14
Characteristics of an ideal LPWA network [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]
“LPWA needs to be easy to integrate with the existing cellular deployments and allow us
to manage a single multipurpose network.”
Juan Campillo, Investment Manager, Chief Commercial Digital Office (Telefónica)
Elements Description
Spectrum
• Low frequency (<1GHz), to support strong propagation
• Licensed, to support some degree of service level assurance
Transmission
• Can be low bandwidth and high latency. High coverage and low power are
more important
Propagation • Very strong. Able to reach terminals underground
Module battery life • Long. Modules are expected to last 10 years on one AA battery
Module power
consumption
• Low
Module cost • Low. Below USD5
Scalability • Able to support billions of devices on the network
Wireless
technology
• Compatible with existing cellular network infrastructure to reduce roll-out costs
and complexity
• Standardised to enable economies of scale
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
No standard has gained critical mass and this may be damaging growth
▪ Unlicensed spectrum
▪ Some commercial launches
▪ Available now (e.g. Sigfox, Semtech,
Onramp)
15
▪ Licensed spectrum
▪ Some pilot launches
▪ Available 2017?
▪ Options include:
– LTE-MTC (supported by Qualcomm,
Nokia, Ericsson)
– Variants of GSM
– Clean-Slate (Huawei/Neul)
Proprietary standards Open standards
RefNo | Commercial in confidence
Contact details
16
Tom Rebbeck
Research Director
tom.rebbeck@analysysmason.com
Cambridge
Tel: +44 (0)1223 460600
Fax: +44 (0)1223 460866
cambridge@analysysmason.com
Dubai
Tel: +971 (0)4 446 7473
Fax: +971 (0)4 446 9827
dubai@analysysmason.com
Dublin
Tel: +353 (0)1 602 4755
Fax: +353 (0)1 602 4777
dublin@analysysmason.com
Johannesburg
Tel: +27 (0)10 596 8000
Fax: +27 (0)86 504 4764
johannesburg@analysysmason.com
London
Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000
Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001
london@analysysmason.com
Madrid
Tel: +34 91 399 5016
Fax: +34 91 451 8071
madrid@analysysmason.com
Milan
Tel: +39 02 76 31 88 34
Fax: +39 02 36 50 45 50
milan@analysysmason.com
New Delhi
Tel: +91 124 4501860
newdelhi@analysysmason.com
Paris
Tel: +33 (0)1 72 71 96 96
Fax: +33 (0)1 72 71 96 97
paris@analysysmason.com
Singapore
Tel: +65 6493 6038
Fax: +65 6720 6038
singapore@analysysmason.com
Boston
Tel: +1 202 331 3080
Fax: +1 202 331 3083
boston@analysysmason.com
Manchester
Tel: +44 (0)161 877 7808
Fax: +44 (0)161 877 7810
manchester@analysysmason.com
0)1223 460866

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Analysys Mason - the opportunity for LPWA solutions

  • 1. RefNo | Commercial in confidence The opportunity for LPWA solutions Presentation Tom Rebbeck, Michele Mackenzie & Nuno Afonso February 2014
  • 2. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Analysys Mason has considerable experience in M2M and IoT both from client projects and from our published material 2 Country of interest We developed forecasts of M2M device connections and revenue for Brazil, the Caribbean and Latin America region (CALA) and worldwide For a leading mobile operator, we identified and sized quick-win opportunities in the international M2M market and helped it develop its long-term M2M strategy Development of a cost-benefit model for operators and enterprises for Ericsson We provided an assessment of M2M market opportunity for a software vendor For a Japanese operator, we produced a report on the sales channel for M2M/IoT services and the role of MVNOs in Europe Supporting a leading mobile operator in developing its strategy for M2M and IoT services Research on M2M/IoT international opportunities for a major European operator We assessed the regulatory implications and regulatory feasibility for the implementation of a new M2M service in a dozen of countries Industry research and quantitative analysis on the global M2M market White paper: Leadership and technology: M2M insights for mobile network operators White paper: M2M transforms an industry: evolution of heavy equipment and dispersed assets Overview of fleet management in five South-East Asian countries On behalf of a major regional operator, Analysys Mason conducted a workshop to assist with M2M and IoT strategy Client country Examples of recent M2M client projects performed by Analysys Mason We developed a list of over 100 potential partners, with key information for each (e.g. details of existing contracts and partnerships) for an operator client On behalf of a major European incumbent operator, Analysys Mason conducted a market assessment of a new type of sensor network. We conducted a research study to determine the level of demand for a satellite M2M product and to determine end-user requirements for hardware and software
  • 3. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Key messages ▪ Strong demand exists for Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) networks ▪ The supply side is more complicated, and is threatening to delay adoption ▪ For the full report, see: http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Reports/Low-powered-wireless- solutions-have-the-potential-to-increase-the-M2M-market-by-over-3-billion-connections/ 3
  • 4. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Contents Demand Supply 4
  • 5. RefNo | Commercial in confidence 5 Low cost No mains power source required Strong propagation “Working with current M2M customers, we realised that there are more potential customers for a solution that has a low-cost module, doesn’t need a power source - it has to work with no power supply - and can be connected deep indoors.” Cédric Levasseur Network Chief Architect Bouygues Telecom Characteristics of LPWA LPWA networks open new market opportunities for three main reasons
  • 6. RefNo | Commercial in confidence We believe that the total addressable market for LPWA services may be close to 14 billion devices by 2023 6 Total addressable market and forecast of LPWA opportunity and connections, worldwide, 2013–2023 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Connections(billions) Total addressable market Forecast of LPWA connections
  • 7. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Compared to the overall IoT market, LPWA will represent over 10% of all connected devices by 2023 7 Number of connected devices, 2023 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Total IoT/M2M market Connected devices 20 billion+ LPWA market Connected devices: 3.1 billion Connectivity revenue: USD10.7 billion Traditional cellular M2M market Connected devices: 1.4 billion Connectivity revenue: USD44.8 billion “The most massive uses of M2M are still to be unlocked. The existing network technology is not adequate for them.” Juan Campillo, Investment Manager, Chief Commercial Digital Office (Telefónica)
  • 8. RefNo | Commercial in confidence We believe that no specific vertical sector will dominate the opportunity for LPWA services, unlike with traditional cellular M2M market 8 Forecast for LPWA connections [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Connections(billions) Industrial Consumer Utilities Smart buildings Smart cities Agriculture and environment Logistics
  • 9. RefNo | Commercial in confidence LPWA is well suited for applications that cannot support the price of cellular modems or connectivity and only need limited bandwidth 9 Comparison of market for LPWA and traditional cellular, 2023 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 LPWA Cellular Connections(billions) Unique LPWA connections Overlap Unique cellular connections
  • 10. RefNo | Commercial in confidence We expect LPWA services to generate more than USD10 billion per year globally in connectivity revenues alone 10 Forecast of connectivity revenues from LPWA services [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 0 2 4 6 8 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USDbillions USD34 billion accumulated connectivity revenue by 2023
  • 11. RefNo | Commercial in confidence 11 Vertical sector Connections Connectivity revenues Example applications Smart buildings 780 million USD1.4 billion Smoke alarms, white goods Agriculture and environment 739 million USD4.6 billion Land monitoring, livestock monitoring, forest monitoring Utilities 553 million USD1.4 billion Water and gas meters, sewage pipeline Consumer 390 million USD1.4 billion Bicycles, pets Logistics 300 million USD780 million Container tracking, refillable tanks and bottles Smart cities 270 million USD740 million Street lighting, parking, waste management Industrial 95 million USD630 million Indoor asset tracking, pipeline monitoring All 3.1 billion USD10.7 billion Connections and connectivity revenue by vertical sector in 2023 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Demand for LPWA networks, at least initially, will come from enterprise rather than consumer applications
  • 12. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Summary of the main points on LPWA demand ▪ Total addressable market for LPWA services is close to 14 billion devices by 2023 ▪ LPWA can add 3 billion connections by 2023, and generate more than USD10 billion globally in connectivity revenues alone ▪ LPWA connections are largely incremental to the traditional cellular market as it mainly enables services that otherwise would not be feasible ▪ No specific vertical sector will dominate the opportunity for LPWA services, unlike with traditional cellular M2M market ▪ The benefits of the ideal LPWA network, such as the low cost per module, can only be achieved with the existence of a strong ecosystem 12
  • 13. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Contents Demand Supply 13
  • 14. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Industry needs consensus on which technology to support 14 Characteristics of an ideal LPWA network [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] “LPWA needs to be easy to integrate with the existing cellular deployments and allow us to manage a single multipurpose network.” Juan Campillo, Investment Manager, Chief Commercial Digital Office (Telefónica) Elements Description Spectrum • Low frequency (<1GHz), to support strong propagation • Licensed, to support some degree of service level assurance Transmission • Can be low bandwidth and high latency. High coverage and low power are more important Propagation • Very strong. Able to reach terminals underground Module battery life • Long. Modules are expected to last 10 years on one AA battery Module power consumption • Low Module cost • Low. Below USD5 Scalability • Able to support billions of devices on the network Wireless technology • Compatible with existing cellular network infrastructure to reduce roll-out costs and complexity • Standardised to enable economies of scale
  • 15. RefNo | Commercial in confidence No standard has gained critical mass and this may be damaging growth ▪ Unlicensed spectrum ▪ Some commercial launches ▪ Available now (e.g. Sigfox, Semtech, Onramp) 15 ▪ Licensed spectrum ▪ Some pilot launches ▪ Available 2017? ▪ Options include: – LTE-MTC (supported by Qualcomm, Nokia, Ericsson) – Variants of GSM – Clean-Slate (Huawei/Neul) Proprietary standards Open standards
  • 16. RefNo | Commercial in confidence Contact details 16 Tom Rebbeck Research Director tom.rebbeck@analysysmason.com Cambridge Tel: +44 (0)1223 460600 Fax: +44 (0)1223 460866 cambridge@analysysmason.com Dubai Tel: +971 (0)4 446 7473 Fax: +971 (0)4 446 9827 dubai@analysysmason.com Dublin Tel: +353 (0)1 602 4755 Fax: +353 (0)1 602 4777 dublin@analysysmason.com Johannesburg Tel: +27 (0)10 596 8000 Fax: +27 (0)86 504 4764 johannesburg@analysysmason.com London Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001 london@analysysmason.com Madrid Tel: +34 91 399 5016 Fax: +34 91 451 8071 madrid@analysysmason.com Milan Tel: +39 02 76 31 88 34 Fax: +39 02 36 50 45 50 milan@analysysmason.com New Delhi Tel: +91 124 4501860 newdelhi@analysysmason.com Paris Tel: +33 (0)1 72 71 96 96 Fax: +33 (0)1 72 71 96 97 paris@analysysmason.com Singapore Tel: +65 6493 6038 Fax: +65 6720 6038 singapore@analysysmason.com Boston Tel: +1 202 331 3080 Fax: +1 202 331 3083 boston@analysysmason.com Manchester Tel: +44 (0)161 877 7808 Fax: +44 (0)161 877 7810 manchester@analysysmason.com 0)1223 460866