State of the UK Economy (November 2016)
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This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote. Overview: Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016 Labour market performance remains strong But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019 Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
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State of the UK Economy (November 2016)
- 1. State of the UK Economy Geoff Riley
- 3. Key Macro Objectives Source: ONS Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National Output) Falling Unemployment / Raising Employment Higher Average Living Standards (national income per capita) Stable Balance of Payments on the Current Account An Equitable Distribution of Income and Wealth
- 4. Key Macro Objectives (2) Balancing the budget and reducing the national debt Improved economic well-being Better regional balance in the UK economy Improved access to & quality of public services Improved global competitiveness Environmental sustainability
- 5. Black Swan events are more frequent than standard economic models assume
- 6. Top ten global economic risks 2016, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit 20 16 16 15 15 12 12 8 8 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 China experiences a hard landing Russia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new "cold war" Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis "Grexit" is followed by a euro zone break-up Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizes the global economy Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election The UK votes to leave the EU Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock Risk rank Source: EIU
- 7. Share of global regions in the gross domestic product (adjusted for purchasing power) in 2016 58.06% 41.94% 16.71% 8.04% 7.6% 6.72% 3.09% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Emerging market and developing economies Advanced economies EU Latin America / Caribbean Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Middle East and North Africa Africa Sub- Sahara ShareinglobalGDP Source: IMF
- 8. Changes in key UK macro variables Source: ONS Growth in key economy variables from 2010 Q1 to 2016 Q1 (Source, OBR, ONS, IMF) Per cent change (+/-) Gross domestic product (GDP) 13 Household consumption 11 General government consumption 8 Fixed investment 22 Exports of goods and services 22 Imports of goods and services 22 Consumer price index (CPI) 13 Employment 9 Productivity per hour 2.5 Average earnings 10.5 Unemployment -33 Real household disposable income 7 House prices 22
- 9. Text goes here Source: Electoral Commission
- 10. Ian Stewart, Chief Economist (Deloitte) •“The path to leaving the EU will be messy and complex, but the starting point is an economy which is in decent shape, rated in international league tables as one of the world’s most competitive.”
- 11. Sterling depreciates in wake of Brexit vote 1.1 1.2 1.3 June20 June21 June22 June23 June24 June27 June28 June29 June30 July1 July4 July5 July6 July7 July8 July11 July12 July13 July14 July15 July18 July19 July20 July21 July22 July25 Exchangerate Sterling against the Euro (£1 = Euro), monthly average Source: ONS
- 12. Fall in sterling helps to explain the strong performance of equity indices post June 23rd Source: BoE
- 13. How the World has changed since 2010 Source: ONS Per cent 25.3 36 35.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 World GDP World trade UK export markets Growth of world economy variables since 2010Q1
- 15. Where are we in the UK Economic Cycle? Source: ONS 350 370 390 410 430 450 470 490 Q12003 Q32003 Q12004 Q32004 Q12005 Q32005 Q12006 Q32006 Q12007 Q32007 Q12008 Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 GDP at constant prices (£billion, per quarter) GDP (£billion)
- 16. Quarterly growth of GDP for the UK Source: ONS -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Q12003 Q22003 Q32003 Q42003 Q12004 Q22004 Q32004 Q42004 Q12005 Q22005 Q32005 Q42005 Q12006 Q22006 Q32006 Q42006 Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Quarter-on-Quarter Growth (%)
- 17. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Index of Output at Constant Prices, 2008 Quarter 1 = 100 Manufacturing Production Construction Services Index of UK Production by main Economic Sector Source: ONS
- 18. Growth Rates of Components of UK Aggregate Demand before, during and after the global downturn 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 -0.8 0.4 -3.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Consumption Government consumption Gross Investment Exports Imports Real GDP Components of UK Aggregate Demand, quarterly % growth rates Pre-downturn Downturn Post-downturn Source: ONS
- 19. -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 November 2015 central estimate Highest forecast Lowest forecast Negative output gap – i.e. the economy has margin of spare capacity Positive output gap – i.e. where actual GDP is above potential GDP – a sign of excess aggregate demand Estimated Output Gap for the UK Economy Source: Bank of England
- 20. BoE GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations (November 2016 Inflation Report) Source: BoE
- 21. Growth of GDP per head has lagged 85 90 95 100 105 110 Q12006 Q22006 Q32006 Q42006 Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q22016 Quarterly growth of Real GDP and Real GDP per head for the UK, indexed from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 = 100 Real GDP GDP Per Head Source: ONS
- 22. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 1997Q1 1997Q4 1998Q3 1999Q2 2000Q1 2000Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 2012Q1 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 Actual and trend path of labour productivity in the UK Actual Trend The trend line shows how output per hour would have performed had it continued to grow at the Quarter 1 1997 -Quarter (Oct to Dec) 4 2007 rate (taking a compound average growth rate). Actual labour productivity falls below trend Source: ONS
- 23. Productivity
- 24. 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Index of Constant price GDP per hour worked, 2007 = 100 UK G7 exc UK Productivity Gap: Real output per person employed in the UK and G7 (excluding the UK) Source: OECD
- 25. Productivity Gap: Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015 85 90 95 100 105 110 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA Source: IMF
- 27. CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016 Source: ONS -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Annual % Rate of Consumer Price Inflation in the UK Economy Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has said the Bank will tolerate a small overshoot of its 2.0% inflation goal to prevent a sharp rise in UK unemployment
- 28. BoE: CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations Source: BoE
- 29. Contributions to CPI inflation in the UK Inflationary impulses: 1. Falling £ - makes imports more expensive 2. Jump in prices of commodities such as gas, copper and cocoa 3. Corporate profit margins have recovered – price rises to protect them (consider marmite!) 4. Deflationary factors of 2015 now un-winding Source: BoE
- 30. Market-implied paths for policy interest rates Source: BoE
- 31. Unemployment
- 32. UK Unemployment (Long Run Perspective) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan-Mar1971 May-Jul1972 Sep-Nov1973 Jan-Mar1975 May-Jul1976 Sep-Nov1977 Jan-Mar1979 May-Jul1980 Sep-Nov1981 Jan-Mar1983 May-Jul1984 Sep-Nov1985 Jan-Mar1987 May-Jul1988 Sep-Nov1989 Jan-Mar1991 May-Jul1992 Sep-Nov1993 Jan-Mar1995 May-Jul1996 Sep-Nov1997 Jan-Mar1999 May-Jul2000 Sep-Nov2001 Jan-Mar2003 May-Jul2004 Sep-Nov2005 Jan-Mar2007 May-Jul2008 Sep-Nov2009 Jan-Mar2011 May-Jul2012 Sep-Nov2013 Jan-Mar2015 May-Jul2016 Unemployment Rate (LFS measure, per cent of the labour force, seasonally adjusted) Unemployment currently at 4.8%, the lowest rate for ten years Source: ONS
- 33. UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 South East East South West Wales East Midlands Scotland UK North West Northern Ireland Yorkshire and The Humber West Midlands London North East Labour Force Survey Unemployment Rate (% of labour force, June-Aug 2016) Source: ONS
- 34. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Mar-May1995 Nov-Jan1996 Jul-Sep1996 Mar-May1997 Nov-Jan1998 Jul-Sep1998 Mar-May1999 Nov-Jan2000 Jul-Sep2000 Mar-May2001 Nov-Jan2002 Jul-Sep2002 Mar-May2003 Nov-Jan2004 Jul-Sep2004 Mar-May2005 Nov-Jan2006 Jul-Sep2006 Mar-May2007 Nov-Jan2008 Jul-Sep2008 Mar-May2009 Nov-Jan2010 Jul-Sep2010 Mar-May2011 Nov-Jan2012 Jul-Sep2012 Mar-May2013 Nov-Jan2014 Jul-Sep2014 Mar-May2015 Nov-Jan2016 Jul-Sep2016 Number of redundancies in the UK, 000s per quarter, seasonally adjusted Redundancies in the UK Labour Market Source: ONS
- 35. 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 Apr-Jun2001 Oct-Dec2001 Apr-Jun2002 Oct-Dec2002 Apr-Jun2003 Oct-Dec2003 Apr-Jun2004 Oct-Dec2004 Apr-Jun2005 Oct-Dec2005 Apr-Jun2006 Oct-Dec2006 Apr-Jun2007 Oct-Dec2007 Apr-Jun2008 Oct-Dec2008 Apr-Jun2009 Oct-Dec2009 Apr-Jun2010 Oct-Dec2010 Apr-Jun2011 Oct-Dec2011 Apr-Jun2012 Oct-Dec2012 Apr-Jun2013 Oct-Dec2013 Apr-Jun2014 Oct-Dec2014 Apr-Jun2015 Oct-Dec2015 Apr-Jun2016 Total number of job vacancies, thousands, seasonally adjusted Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted Source: ONS
- 36. 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Over 24 months 12-24 months 6-12 months Less than 6 months Total unemployment, seasonally adjusted In the last few years there has been a welcome fall in the level of unemployment One of the big challenges for the UK is to make more progress in reducing long-term structural unemployment Duration of LFS Unemployment in the UK economy Source: ONS
- 37. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Zero Hours Contracts do not guarantee a minimum number of working hours each week In employment on a zero hours contract (thousands) Percentage of people in employment on a zero hours contract • People on “zero-hours contracts” are more likely to be young, part time, women, or in full-time education when compared with other people in employment. • On average, someone on a “zero-hours contract” usually works 26 hours a week Total (thousands) % of people in work The Rise of Zero Hours Contracts in the UK Source: ONS
- 38. Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Apr-Jun1997 Oct-Dec1997 Apr-Jun1998 Oct-Dec1998 Apr-Jun1999 Oct-Dec1999 Apr-Jun2000 Oct-Dec2000 Apr-Jun2001 Oct-Dec2001 Apr-Jun2002 Oct-Dec2002 Apr-Jun2003 Oct-Dec2003 Apr-Jun2004 Oct-Dec2004 Apr-Jun2005 Oct-Dec2005 Apr-Jun2006 Oct-Dec2006 Apr-Jun2007 Oct-Dec2007 Apr-Jun2008 Oct-Dec2008 Apr-Jun2009 Oct-Dec2009 Apr-Jun2010 Oct-Dec2010 Apr-Jun2011 Oct-Dec2011 Apr-Jun2012 Oct-Dec2012 Apr-Jun2013 Oct-Dec2013 Apr-Jun2014 Oct-Dec2014 Apr-Jun2015 Oct-Dec2015 Apr-Jun2016 Non-UK nationals working in the UK, thousands, data is not seasonally adjusted, source: Labour Force Survey Total EU nationals Total non-EU nationals Source: ONS
- 39. BoE: Unemployment projection based on market interest rate expectations Source: BoE
- 40. Housing Market
- 41. Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000 2005Jan 2005May 2005Sep 2006Jan 2006May 2006Sep 2007Jan 2007May 2007Sep 2008Jan 2008May 2008Sep 2009Jan 2009May 2009Sep 2010Jan 2010May 2010Sep 2011Jan 2011May 2011Sep 2012Jan 2012May 2012Sep 2013Jan 2013May 2013Sep 2014Jan 2014May 2014Sep 2015Jan 2015May 2015Sep 2016Jan 2016May UK average house price (£s) source: Land Registry Source: ONS
- 42. 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 2004Jan 2004Jul 2005Jan 2005Jul 2006Jan 2006Jul 2007Jan 2007Jul 2008Jan 2008Jul 2009Jan 2009Jul 2010Jan 2010Jul 2011Jan 2011Jul 2012Jan 2012Jul 2013Jan 2013Jul 2014Jan 2014Jul 2015Jan 2015Jul 2016Jan 2016Jul Regional House Prices, monthly data, £s North East North West Yorkshire and The Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West Regional House Price Averages in the UK Source: ONS
- 43. -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Household final consumption Savings ratio The chart shows the annual growth in household consumption of goods and services along with the household saving ratio (% of disposable income) The saving ratio in the UK has been falling since 2010 mainly due to a period of relatively strong consumer spending that has out- paced the growth of real disposable income % Household Saving Ratio for the UK Economy Source: ONS
- 44. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Real Median Disposable Income and Income Inequality in the UK Real median equivalised disposable income (RHS) S80/S20 Ratio (LHS) Source: ONS Income inequality using the S80/S20 ratio seems to have gradually fallen since 2000 but real median disposable income in the UK has stagnated since 2007 S80/S20 ratio £s at constant 2014 prices S80/S20 ratio of the total disposable income of the richest fifth of the population to that of the poorest fifth of the population Median Disposable Income and Inequality
- 46. UK Budget (Fiscal) Balance (Forecast from 2016) -7.08% -4.87% -5.4% -4.3% -3.78% -2.76% -1.64% -0.95% -0.44% 0.64% 0.81% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* BudgetbalancetoGDPratio Source: IMF
- 47. Gross government debt as a percentage of GDP in the UK from 2000/2001 to 2015/2016 35.4% 34% 34.1% 35.7% 38.3% 39.5% 40.3% 41.2% 53.1% 70.3% 76.3% 82.6% 84.4% 86.5% 87.4% 87.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 PercentageofGDP The UK government (public) debt is equal to £1.7 trillion and this year, despite a lower fiscal deficit, it is increasing at a rate of £5,170 per second. Source: ONS
- 48. UK Bond Yields during 2016 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 04Jan16 11Jan16 18Jan16 25Jan16 01Feb16 08Feb16 15Feb16 22Feb16 29Feb16 07Mar16 14Mar16 21Mar16 28Mar16 04Apr16 11Apr16 18Apr16 25Apr16 02May16 09May16 16May16 23May16 30May16 06Jun16 13Jun16 20Jun16 27Jun16 04Jul16 11Jul16 18Jul16 25Jul16 01Aug16 08Aug16 15Aug16 22Aug16 29Aug16 05Sep16 12Sep16 19Sep16 26Sep16 03Oct16 10Oct16 17Oct16 24Oct16 Yields on UK gilts at selected maturities (per cent) 2-year 10-year 30-year Source: HM Treasury
- 49. Central government debt interest expenditure in the UK from 2011/2012 to 2015/2016 (£ million) 44,476 40,354 39,703 36,473 36,724 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Expenditureinmillion£ Source: OBR
- 51. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trade Balances for Goods and Services (% of GDP) Goods balance Services balance Balance in goods and services UK Trade Balance in Goods and Services (% of GDP) Source: ONS
- 52. UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP) -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 1998Q1 1998Q4 1999Q3 2000Q2 2001Q1 2001Q4 2002Q3 2003Q2 2004Q1 2004Q4 2005Q3 2006Q2 2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016Q1 UK Trade Balances by Sector, % of GDP, Source: ONS Financial services Other services Goods Trade balance Source: ONS
- 53. UK Current Account Components (% of GDP) -16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Components of the UK Current Account of the Balance of Payments, (quarterly data, % of GDP) Trade balance Primary income Secondary income Current account balance Source: Bank of England
- 54. Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number) 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 02Jan14 02Feb14 02Mar14 02Apr14 02May14 02Jun14 02Jul14 02Aug14 02Sep14 02Oct14 02Nov14 02Dec14 02Jan15 02Feb15 02Mar15 02Apr15 02May15 02Jun15 02Jul15 02Aug15 02Sep15 02Oct15 02Nov15 02Dec15 02Jan16 02Feb16 02Mar16 02Apr16 02May16 02Jun16 02Jul16 02Aug16 02Sep16 02Oct16 UK Exchange Rate Indices, 2nd Jan 2014 = 100 Sterling ERI €/£ $/£ Source: Bank of England
- 55. How globally competitive is the UK? Source: ONS Indicator UK ranking out of 138 countries Overall global competitiveness 7th/138 Institutions 14th / 138 Investor protection 4th / 138 Infrastructure 9th / 138 Roads 27th, Mobile infrastructure 56th Macroeconomic environment 85th /138 (mainly due to high debt) Labour market efficiency 5th /138 Female lab market participation 58th Science & Maths education 38th Technological readiness 3rd /144 Mobile broadband 34th Highlighted problems for businesses • Access to finance for business • Skills gaps in the workforce Source: World Economic Forum
- 56. Expenditure by UK businesses on performing R&D in current prices, by largest product groups, 2008 to 2015 Source: ONS
- 57. Domestic and overseas business R&D in UK Source: ONS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Ownership of businesses who perform R&D in the UK, 1993 to 2015 UK Rest of the World
- 58. Overview • Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data • Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016 • Labour market performance remains strong • But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem • Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government • Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness • Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019 • Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
- 60. State of the UK Economy Geoff Riley