30. Everybody Talks About the Weather,
But Nobody Does Anything About It.
Mark Twain
…while everybody talked about the
weather, nobody seemed to do
anything about it.
Charles Dudley Warner
38. 大尺度全球氣象模式
– 美國Global Forecast System Model (GFS)
• 預測384 小時,解析度約25km,每天預測四次
– 歐洲中期預測中心ECMWF
• 預測10-15天,解析度0.125 度,公認全球最好模式
– 英國氣象局UK Met Office
• 與美國GFS 接近
– 加拿大氣象中心GEM 模式
– 及其他,如中國、日本等
38
39. 中小尺度區域氣象模式
– MM5 (Penn. State/NCAR Mesoscale Model
Version 5)
– WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting
Model) (36, 12, 4, 1.3 km)
– COAMPS (Navy). 美國海軍預測模式
39
40. ECMWF model is usually the most
skillful for major storms: like Sandy
…and the media and others have
noticed
By Clifford Mass
University of Washington
First Symposium Austin, Texas, 40
on the Weather and Climate Enterprise
January 7, 2013
41. 41
Rank PreviousF Rirasnt AkppFeiarsrat nRcaenNkame Site Manufacturer Country Year Segment
1 1 41 1 Tianhe-2 (MNilaktyioWnayl -S2u)per Computer Center in Guangzhou NUDT China 2013 Research
2 2 40 1 Titan DOE/SC/Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cray Inc. United States 2012 Research
3 3 38 17 Sequoia DOE/NNSA/LLNL IBM United States 2011 Research
4 4 37 1 RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science (AICFSu)jitsu Japan 2011 Research
5 5 39 3 Mira DOE/SC/Argonne National Laboratory IBM United States 2012 Research
6 6 40 114 Piz Daint Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) Cray Inc. Switzerland 2012 Research
7 7 40 7 Stampede Texas Advanced Computing Center/Univ. of Texas Dell United States 2012 Academic
8 8 39 8 JUQUEEN Forschungszentrum Juelich (FZJ) IBM Germany 2012 Research
9 9 39 48 Vulcan DOE/NNSA/LLNL IBM United States 2012 Research
10 43 10 Government Cray Inc. United States 2014 Government
11 43 11 HPC2 Exploration & Production - Eni S.p.A. IBM Italy 2014 Industry
12 10 39 4 SuperMUCLeibniz Rechenzentrum IBM Germany 2012 Academic
13 11 42 11 TSUBAME G2.S5IC Center, Tokyo Institute of Technology NEC/HP Japan 2013 Academic
14 12 36 1 Tianhe-1A National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin NUDT China 2010 Research
15 13 42 13 cascade DOE/SC/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Atipa Technology United States 2013 Research
16 14 41 11 Pangea Total Exploration Production SGI France 2013 Industry
17 15 39 7 Fermi CINECA IBM Italy 2012 Academic
18 43 18 Edison DOE/SC/LBNL/NERSC Cray Inc. United States 2014 Research
19 43 19 ECMWF Cray Inc. United Kingdom 2014 Research
20 43 20 ECMWF Cray Inc. United Kingdom 2014 Research
21 16 37 7 Pleiades NASA/Ames Research Center/NAS SGI United States 2011 Research
22 17 42 17 IBM Development Engineering IBM United States 2013 Vendor
23 23 39 13 Blue Joule Science and Technology Facilities Council - Daresbury LaIbBoMratory United Kingdom 2012 Research
24 18 40 69 Spirit Air Force Research Laboratory SGI United States 2012 Government
25 19 42 19 ARCHER EPSRC/University of Edinburgh Cray Inc. United Kingdom 2013 Research
26 20 39 9 Curie thin nCodEeAs/TGCC-GENCI Bull SA France 2012 Research
27 31 42 31 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft MPI/IPP IBM Germany 2013 Research
28 21 35 2 Nebulae National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen (NSCS) Dawning China 2010 Research
29 22 40 13 YellowstoneNCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) IBM United States 2012 Research
30 24 38 28 Helios International Fusion Energy Research Centre (IFERC), EUB(Fu4ll ES)A - Japan BroadJaepr aAnpproach collaboration2011 Academic
31 25 36 44 Garnet ERDC DSRC Cray Inc. United States 2010 Research
32 26 37 6 Cielo DOE/NNSA/LANL/SNL Cray Inc. United States 2011 Research
33 27 39 20 DiRAC University of Edinburgh IBM United Kingdom 2012 Academic
34 28 36 5 Hopper DOE/SC/LBNL/NERSC Cray Inc. United States 2010 Research
35 29 36 6 Tera-100 Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA) Bull SA France 2010 Research
36 30 39 18 Oakleaf-FXInformation Technology Center, The University of Tokyo Fujitsu Japan 2012 Academic
37 36 42 36 QUARTETTROesearch Institute for Information Technology, Kyushu UnHiveitrascithyi/Fujitsu Japan 2013 Academic
38 32 40 24 National Computational Infrastructure, Australian National FUunjitvseursity Australia 2012 Research
39 33 41 28 Conte Purdue University Hewlett-Packard United States 2013 Academic
40 43 40 Spruce A AWE SGI United Kingdom 2014 Research
41 34 40 36 MareNostrum Barcelona Supercomputing Center IBM Spain 2012 Academic
42 37 37 13 LomonosovMoscow State University - Research Computing Center T-Platforms Russia 2011 Academic
43 38 39 102 AMOS Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute IBM United States 2012 Academic
44 39 38 12 HERMIT HWW/Universitaet Stuttgart Cray Inc. Germany 2011 Industry
45 43 45 Faris Saudi Aramco EXPEC Hewlett-Packard Saudi Arabia 2014 Industry
46 40 38 14 Sunway BluNea Ltiiognhatl Supercomputing Center in Jinan National Research CCehnintear of Parallel Computer2 0E1n1giRneeesreinagrc &h Technology
47 41 38 15 Zin Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Cray Inc. United States 2011 Research
48 42 38 16 Tianhe-1A HNuantiaonn aSl oSluutpioenr Computer Center in Hunan NUDT China 2011 Research
49 43 49 Spruce B AWE SGI United Kingdom 2014 Research
50 43 35 112 Endeavor Intel Intel United States 2011 Industry
51 43 51 COMA (PACeSn-ItXe)r for Computational Sciences, University of TsukubaCray Inc. Japan 2014 Academic
52 44 41 36 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology IBM India 2013 Research
53 45 39 29 CNRS/IDRIS-GENCI IBM France 2012 Academic
54 217 39 100 Cetus DOE/SC/Argonne National Laboratory IBM United States 2012 Research
55 46 39 30 Zumbrota EDF R&D IBM France 2012 Industry
56 47 42 47 EPFL Blue SBwraisins INVational Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) IBM Switzerland 2013 Research
57 48 39 31 Avoca Victorian Life Sciences Computation Initiative IBM Australia 2012 Research
58 49 42 49 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft MPI/IPP IBM Germany 2013 Research
59 50 37 24 HECToR University of Edinburgh Cray Inc. United Kingdom 2011 Academic
60 51 38 483 ECMWF IBM United Kingdom 2011 Research
61 52 38 55 ECMWF IBM United Kingdom 2011 Research
42. Sample T00ra00c UkT DC ifferences
23 October
1200 UTC
23
October
BLACK = Best Track RED = ECMWF BLUE = GFS
0000 UTC
24 October
1200 UTC
24
October
42
43. In this talk I will discuss some of the
reasons for U.S. NWP falling behind…
• Poor leadership and lack of vision.
• Inadequate computer resources.
• Lack of cooperation between research and governmental
NWP.
• Lack of enterprise-wide coordination, prioritization and
planning.
• Structural organizational problems in NOAA.
• Lack of extramural research support by NOAA/NWS.
• A willingness to accept mediocrity. By Clifford Mass
University of Washington
First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise
Austin, Texas, January 7, 2013
89. A Climate Risk
Assessment for the
United States
2014 Risky Business Report
Michael Bloomberg,
Founder, Bloomberg
Philanthropies,
Former Mayor of
New York from 2002-
2013.
Hank Paulson,
Former Secretary
of Treasury and
Chairman of
Paulson Institute
Tom Steyer,
Retired Founder
of Farallon
Capital
Management LLC
90. 再不做就來不及了!
Climate change: Time is running out!
調適(Adaptation): 人類調整改變社會的軟(政策
與觀念)硬(產業與建設)體以適應目前或是未來的氣候變遷,減
少損害且創造新的契機。
減緩(Mitigation): 減少大氣中的溫室氣體濃度,
延後甚至避免氣候變遷發生,讓氣候變遷的衝擊降低。
減緩也是一種調適
91. 現在不付加倍奉還
PAY NOW OR PAY MORE LATER
每條路都需要大量投入,但行動遲疑會讓減緩氣候變遷付出更高成本
93. U.S. Climate Data Initiative
John David Podesta: “Climate Data Initiative launches with
strong public and private sector commitments.”
Climate.Data.gov
Other
Departments/Agencies
Environmental Systems
Research Institute
Counselor to the President
U.S. Geological Survey
/26 93
94. U.S. administration commitments
• Launch of Climate.Data.gov
• Increase the open data of nation’s infrastructure units and geographic map
• Expand stakeholder outreach and engagement in various sectors
/26 94