UNDP presentation by Matt Spannagle

1. Introduction to Climate Change Matt Spannagle [email_address] Bratislava, 14 March 2011

6. Global Energy Budget Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997: Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget, Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 78, 197-208

7. Albedo 0 = perfect absorption 1 = perfect reflection 0.05 Equatorial oceans at noon Up to 0.60 Oceans with sea ice 0.14 – 0.18 Cities 0.40 – 0.60 Old Snow 0.75 – 0.95 Fresh Snow 0.05 – 0.10 Dense Forests 0.14 – 0.20 Forests 0.15 - 0.25 Green Crops 0.16 - 0.20 Grassland 0.18 – 0.28 Sand Albedo Material

10. The Sun’s and Earth’s Radiation

11. Absorption Spectrum

12. Solar Radiation (incoming) Solar irradiation curves, showing location of atmospheric absorption bands H 2 O CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O

13. Absorptivity of Earth’s Radiation Curves (outgoing)

14. Global Warming Potentials 6.5 21 56 12.0 ±3 CH 4 Methane 1 1 1 50-200 CO 2 Carbon Dioxide 9,800 11,700 9,100 264 CHF 3 Trifluoromethane (HFC-23) 170 310 280 120 N 2 O Nitrous Oxide 23,900 6,500 100 yrs 34,900 16,300 3,200 SF 6 Sulphur Hexafluoride 10,000 4,400 50,000 CF 4 Carbon Tetrafluoride 500 yrs 20 yrs Global Warming Potentials 1996 Lifetime (years) Chemical Formula Gas

15. Background Information Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Hydrosphere Lithosphere CO 2 Biosphere Producers Consumers Decomposers Carbonates in Solution Carbonate Rocks Fossil Fuels Photosynthesis Combustion and/or Respiration

16. Background Information - Carbon Cycle Ricklefs, Robert E., The Economy of Nature, 3rd Ed.. 1993, W.H. Freeman and Co., New York Pools (billion metric tons) Fluxes (billion metric tons/year)

18. Combined Annual Land-Surface Air and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (1861 to 2000, cf 1961 -1990). Two standard error bars shown on the annual number . Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis – Technical Summary. Geneva, 2001.

19. Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction (1000 to 2000) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis – Technical Summary. Geneva, 2001.

20. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis – Technical Summary. Geneva, 2001.

21. Variations of temperature, CH 4 & atmospheric CO 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis – Technical Summary. Geneva, 2001. CO 2 (2001) CH 4 (2001) (> 2X scale) Data derived from air trapped within ice cores from Antarctica

22. More recent - CO2 & Temperature Two standard error bars shown on the annual number . Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007 2009: 387ppm

23. Current evidence

24. Current evidence - Extensive thinning on the margins of Greenland and Antarctica

27. Global variability in Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s

28. … but reality is not average… mean <5% > 5% 15 o C 25 o C 35 o C 11 o C 25 o C 39 o C Historic ‘ average’ increase of 3 o C Average (3) + variability of 4 o C 22 o C 12 o C 32 o C Average + variability ‘ average’ increase May 1 st Historic

29. What we’re seeing….. NASA data for Jan-Apr 2010, 0.75 o C above 1951-80 base period

30. Moscow, August 2010. Hottest summer for at least 130 years, probably for last 1000 years, sparking forest fires and underground peat fires What we’re seeing…..

31. Global variability in Projected Precipitation

32. Pakistan, August 2010 What we’re seeing…..

33. Flooding in Ostritz near Czech-Polish border, 2010 What we’re seeing…..

34. Rapid loss of Arctic sea ice Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - 2007

40. End Matt Spannagle http://www.undp.org/ [email_address]