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Roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050


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Roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050

  1. 1. 1<br />Roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050<br />JosDelbeke, Director General<br />DG Climate Action <br />European Commission<br />
  2. 2. 2<br />Climate change a global long-term challenge<br />Cancun achievements: <br />Common goal: stay below 2°C<br />Emission pledges <br />by countries responsible for > 80% of global emissions, <br />not sufficient for our 2°C goal!<br />Low-carbon development strategies <br />expected from developed countries, <br />encouraged for developing countries<br /> European Council calls for a forward-looking vision:<br />Science: cut global emissions by at least -50% by 2050 wrt to 1990<br />EU objective: <br /><ul><li>reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990,
  3. 3. in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries, appropriate action by developing countries</li></ul> Map the road from now to 2050!<br />
  4. 4. 3<br />Building on EU Climate Action until 2020…<br />3<br />
  5. 5. 4<br />EU implements its 2020 pledge<br />Cut GHG emissions by 20% wrt. 1990<br />EU Emissions Trading System cuts emissions from industrial installations, aviation from 2012<br />National emission targets cover buildings, services, agriculture, transport…<br />Increase share of renewables in EU’s energy mix to 20% <br />Improve energy efficiency by 20% (compared to business as usual projections)<br /> EU has taken significant steps towards -20% emissions by 2020 but still challenging<br />
  6. 6. 5<br />Decoupling EU emissions from growth<br />EU emissions -16.3% and EU GDP + 40% in 1990-2009<br /><ul><li>National targets increase renewable energy use (wind/solar + biomass heating)
  7. 7. EU ETS: fosters clean energy production (100 Mt CO2 cut in 2009 from less coal)
  8. 8. Policies for buildings, energy-using products: EU emissions down since 2004</li></ul>5<br />
  9. 9. 6<br />Climate change at heart of Europe 2020 strategy<br />EU economic strategy integrates 2020 climate goals, at highest level<br />EU to improve its resource efficiency for “Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”<br />EU increasingly depends on imported fossil fuels in tensed global markets<br />EU strong in manufacturing industries, other regions invest in green growth<br />More frequent and severe floods, storms, heat waves, droughts would impact our agriculture, tourism, transport, health<br />2005 : US$ 228 billion<br />
  10. 10. 7<br />…looking into 2050 horizon<br />7<br />
  11. 11. 8<br />Long-term climate action: to avoid dangerous temperature increase<br />Global emissions pathways in the next 40 years will determine likely warming by end of century<br />Meeting the Cancun « below 2°C » objective requires cooperation<br /><ul><li>Global “2°C pathway”: peak by 2020 at the latest, at least -50% below 1990 by 2050
  12. 12. Leadership by developed countries: -25-40% below 1990 by 2020, -80-95% by 2050
  13. 13. Deviation from BAU for developing countries~ -15-30% from BAU by 2020</li></ul>8<br />
  14. 14. 9<br />Long-term scenarios about global emissions <br />Current trends and policies lead to only c. -40%GHG by 2050, not 2°C!<br />One working scenario for global action consistent wih our common 2°C goal<br />EU: -80 to 95% in 2050 wrt. 1990, at least 80% domestic<br /><ul><li>In the context of Leadership by Developed Countries -80% in 2050 wrt. to 1990
  15. 15. And deviation from BAU by Developing Countries in 2050 eq. -5% wrt. to 1990 or - 80% wrt. to BAU</li></li></ul><li>10<br />Pathways securing 2°C goals: Gradual, cost-effective emission reductions!<br />Not about targets, but identifying cost-effective trajectory<br />Gradual emission reductions<br />-1.0% per year 2010-2020 vs 1990<br />-1.5% per year 2020-2030 vs 1990<br />-2.0% per year 2030-2050 vs 1990<br />Eq. reduced per capita emissions<br />Meeting 2°C: by improving GHG intensity/GDP in all regions!<br />10<br />
  16. 16. 11<br />How to reduce EU emissions in the context of long-term global action<br />11<br />
  17. 17. 12<br />A cost-effective pathway towards 2050<br />Analysis at EU level reveals <br />80% domestic reduction in 2050:<br /><ul><li>Is feasible with available </li></ul> technologies, do not depend on specific techno<br /><ul><li>Requires all sectors contribute, to </li></ul> a varying degree & pace<br />Cost-effective pathway:<br /><ul><li>-25% in 2020, - 40% in 2030, -60% in 2040</li></li></ul><li>13<br />400<br />350<br />21%<br />13%<br />300<br />24%<br />250<br />Savings potential 2020<br />200<br />17%<br />150<br />Energy consumption 2020<br />100<br />50<br />0<br />Industry<br />Transport<br />Households<br />Tertiary<br />Energy efficiency - single most important contribution by 2050<br />Current policies only result in 10% energy efficiency improvement<br />Roadmap confirms key role of efficiency up to 2020 and beyond<br />Extra measures in Energy efficiency plan. <br />EU Emission Trading Scheme key instrument. <br />13<br />
  18. 18. 14<br />All sectors, sources to contribute consistently<br />Across sectors:<br />R&D and Deployment, e.g. Implement Strategic Energy Technology Plan<br />Leverage private sector investments; provide clarity for long term investments <br />Lift remaining barriers to energy efficiency<br />Leave no sector aside, e.g. reap cost-effective potential for emission reduction in agriculture from now to 2030 <br />
  19. 19. 15<br />Investing in our low-carbon future, reaping opportunities<br />15<br />
  20. 20. 16<br />Investing in a low carbon future <br />Moving along cost-effective pathway to 2050: significant increase in domestic investments <br />EU additional investment: € 270 bn/yr 2010-2050, 1.5% GDP<br />built environment (buildings and appliances): € 75 bn.<br />transport (vehicles and infrastructure): € 150 bn.<br />power (electricity generation, grid): € 30 bn.<br />Note: <br />Not an extra cost, but an investment in the EU economy<br />Delaying action increases overall costs<br />R&D and early demonstration/deployment essential<br />Resulting fuel cost savings: € 175 to 320 bn./yr. (average on 2010-2050)<br />
  21. 21. 17<br />Global climate action – energy security benefits at global level<br />Benefits highest with global action, that results in overall lower fuel costs, across regions<br />EU long-term action in the context of global action would make Europe’s economy more energy secure: <br />Halves imports of oil and gas compared to today<br />Saving 400 billion € of the oil and gas import bill by 2050, equivalent of >3% of today’s GDP <br />Safeguards against macro-economic impacts of future energy price hikes<br />17<br />
  22. 22. 18<br />Coping with scarcer oil resources at global level<br />EU analysis join WEO 2010 analysis about average annual OPEC oil export revenues until 2030 and beyond, and opportunities for investing in future sustainable growth<br />In all regions: shift from fuel costs to investment expenditure<br /><ul><li>GDP more secure from energy shocks</li></li></ul><li>19<br />EU action as part of Global action – largest benefits for households<br />Air quality and health benefits: € 27 billion in 2030 and € 88 billion in 2050<br />Reduced Transport costs per household<br />Ensure no increase in average end-user electricity prices over time<br />19<br />
  23. 23. 20<br />Moving to a low-carbon economy -Benefits for growth and jobs <br />Significant increase in domestic investments<br /><ul><li>Innovation in key growth sectors crucial for future competitiveness
  24. 24. Sustain dynamic growth with GDP decoupled from emissions after 2020</li></ul>Source of new growth and jobs<br /><ul><li>More demand for jobs now (renovation of buildings)
  25. 25. Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020
  26. 26. Use auctioning and tax revenues for reduction of labour costs, spur investments and R&D, future jobs
  27. 27. Long term job prospects depend on favourable economic framework conditions: R&D, entrepreneurship, investments</li></li></ul><li>21<br />Next Steps<br /> To be followed by: <br />Council Conclusions in June, discussions in European Parliament<br />Sectoral policy developments (2050 energy roadmap, White Paper on transport…)<br />National and regional low carbon strategies<br /><ul><li>to promote international cooperation, mutual learning on LEDS and integrated LEDS/MRV/mitigation actions</li></ul>A roadmap to a competitive low-carbon economy, identifying: <br />cost-effective pathways, with milestones<br />key technologies<br />investments needs and benefits<br />opportunities and trade-offs<br /><ul><li>To guide EU, national and regional policies
  28. 28. To give direction to private sector and private households for long term investments</li></li></ul><li>22<br />For further information:<br />22<br />