Applying Behavioural Insights to Self and Society

© Behavioural Insights ltd
Behaviour, government policy and me:
applying behavioural insights to society and self
Samuel Hanes

Agenda
09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights
10:15 The EAST framework
11:30 Applications to self

Estimation Game
•  Ten quantities are below
•  For each, write down your best estimate
Question Estimate
1. Number of countries in Asia
2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres)
3. Population of ASEAN, 2015
4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank)
5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines
6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014
7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013
8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014
9. How many MRT stations in Singapore?
10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014

Estimation Game
•  Now put a lower and upper bound around your estimate, so that you are
90% confident that the truth lies inside it
Question Estimate Upper Lower
1. Number of countries in Asia
2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres)
3. Population of ASEAN, 2015
4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank)
5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines
6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014
7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013
8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014
9. How many MRT stations in Singapore?
10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014

Estimation Game
•  The answers:
Question Estimate
1. Number of countries in Asia 48
2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres) 4,095
3. Population of ASEAN, 2015 633m
4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank) $297.9bn
5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines 175
6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014 1.3m
7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013 1.25m
8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014 1.2m
9. How many MRT stations in Singapore? 121
10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014 326.92m kg

Estimation Game
Most people’s guesses fall outside the upper and lower
bounds between 30 and 70% of the time.
“We are more confident than we deserve to be regarding
the accuracy of our knowledge. Most of us are
overconfident in the precision of our beliefs”
(Max Bazerman & Don Moore)

Behavioural insights are empirical findings
about human behaviour that can be used
to make public policy more effective
What are behavioural insights?

People can be unpredictable, so we are
interested in insights that have been tested
and shown to be effective.

We do not focus on what
changes attitudes or beliefs.

We do not focus on what
changes attitudes or beliefs. Insights should be useful and
practical for policymakers.

A worked example of behavioural insights:
Descriptive social norms
Which is the best suit?
A B C
?
“I think B is the best…”
Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal
of Marketing Research, 384-387.

Control:
Respond on their own
Social norm:
Respond after actors

Descriptive social norms
21%
52%
Control Intervention
% replying to intervention
N=136
Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal
of Marketing Research, 384-387.

Social norms applied to antibiotics
“The great majority (80%) of
practices in London prescribe fewer
antibiotics per head than yours.”

Social norms applied to antibiotics
100
120
140
160
September
(pre)
October November December January February March April (post)
Antibioticsper1000weightedpopulation
Control
Treatment

System 1
Fast thinking/Automatic
intuitive, effortless
2x2
Taking your daily commute
System 2
Slow thinking/Reflective
deliberate, analytic
24x17
Planning a trip overseas
“It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior
are a lot stronger than most people expect”
Daniel Kahneman
We need to think differently about behaviour

Most policy concerns behaviour…

BI: more nuanced understanding of human
behaviour - additional tools for policymakers
Regulation
Incentives
Information
Behavioural
Insights

“Our government will find intelligent ways to
encourage, support and enable people to
make better choices for themselves.”

David Cameron
Prime Minister
Lord O’Donnell
Chair of Academic
Advisory Panel Sir Jeremy Heywood
Cabinet Secretary and
Head of Steering Board
Behavioural Insights Team
Dr. David Halpern (Chief Executive)
Owain Service (Managing Director)
Dr. Rory Gallagher (Managing Director, Asia Pacific)
Samuel Hanes (Director, Singapore)
Academic Advisory Panel

Guatamala:
Guatamalan tax
administration
UK: (i) The Behavioural
Insights Team (BIT) & (ii)
nudge units in 10 departments
Singapore: (i) Prime
Minister’s Office & (ii)
Ministry of Manpower
‘Nudge Units’
around the world
Denmark: The Danish
Nudging Network
Norway:
Greenudge
Finland: Prime
Minister’s Office
Sweden: Swedish
Nudging Network
Netherlands: (i) Ministry of
Economic Affairs & (ii)
Ministry of Infrastructure &
the Environment
Canada:
Policy
Horizons
Canada
Chicago: Chicago
Nudge Unit
US: White House Social and
Behavioral Sciences Team
NYC: (i) BIT
North America
& (ii) ideas42
Commonwealth
Government: BETA
Sydney: (i) BIT
Australia & (ii)
Behavioural
Insights Unit, New
South Wales
European
Commission:
Behavioural Science
and Foresight TeamWorld Bank:
Development Report
and behavioural trials
OECD:
Behavioural
science
coordination
Germany:
Chancellor’s Office
Moldova: UNDP/BIT
collaboration
Jamaica: Finance
Ministry (UNDP/BIT) Rio de Jeneiro:
Mayor’s Office
Mexico:
President’s
Office
Victoria: DPC
NZ?

We have collaborated with a wide range of
government agencies in Singapore

Example 1:
Decreasing
unnecessary
appeals for
parking
offences

Example 1: information about appeals
provided upfront

Example 1: Reminder of evidence
requirement

Example 1: 13.7% relative reduction in
appeals.
4.50%
3.88%
Old New
N=112,819

Rolled out nationally,
this would reduce
appeals by around
3,400 per year
Saving ~$105,000 in
officer time

Example 2:
Channel
migration for
HDB
improvement
payments

Example 2: Redesigned letters

Example 2: The new reminders did not
increase payment rates
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
No. of days after letter sent
1st Reminder 2nd Reminder

Example 2: Many more people paid online
N=2,510
11%
31%
Old Letter New Letter

Example 2: This was effective even in older
age groups
46%
23%
15%
6% 6% 5%
71%
53%
35%
26%
21% 20%
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75

Studying behaviour “can lead to
better results for schemes,
policies”

Our organ
donation trial
will add
100,000
organ donor
registrations
each year.

1. Control 2. Thousands
3. People 4. Logo

5. Three die 6. Nine Lives
7. Would you 8. Take Action

Name Message Image
1. Control
2. Thousands Every day thousands of people who see
this page decide to register.
3. People Every day thousands of people who see
Group of people
4. Logo Every day thousands of people who see
NHS Logo
5. Three Die Three people die each day because there
are not enough organ donors.
6. Nine Lives You could save or transform up to nine
lives as an organ donor.
7. Would you If you needed an organ transplant would
you have one? If so, please help others.
8. Take Action If you support organ donation, please turn
you support into action.

Proportion joining the organ donor register
after a simple online prompt
2.3%
2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2%
2.2%

Short break and task:
Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It
can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing
with the group.

SOCIAL
TIMELYATTRACTIVE
EASY

Attention depletion
(Danziger et al. 2010)

Easy: Prescription charts

Easy: Prescription charts
95%
32%
11%
100%
84%
96%
Dose entered
correctly
Prescriber's contact
number entered
Frequency of
medications entered
correctly
Existing chart (n=174)
Improved chart (n=163)
King et al. (2014)
Redesigning the
‘choice architecture’
of hospital
prescription charts.
Forthcoming.

Easy: The ‘Tax Return Initiative’
Direct to form
Webpage

Easy: The ‘Tax Return Initiative’
19.2%
23.4%
Webpage Direct to Form

Removing small frictions – university
applications
Source: Be*nger et al, 2011

Removing small frictions – university
applications
34% 33%
42%
Control group Information Information + pre-filled
forms
Bettinger, E. P., Long, B. T., Oreopoulos, P., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2012). The role of application assistance and
information in college decisions: Results from the H&R Block FAFSA experiment. The Quarterly Journal of
Economics,127(3), 1205-1242.

Ego-depletion
No food vs eat what you like vs radishes only

Resisting temptation can lead to ego-
depletion
20.86 18.90
8.35
No food Eat what you like Radishes only
Seconds spent trying to solve impossible task
Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Muraven, M., & Tice, D. M. (1998). Ego depletion: is the active self a limited
resource?. Journal of personality and social psychology, 74(5), 1252.

Scarcity can lower executive control
Given 2 scenarios: Your car breaks down and requires [$300 or $3000] to be
fixed. You can pay in full, take a loan, or take a chance and forego the service
at the moment... How would you go about making this decision? Financially,
would it be an easy or a difficult decision for you to make?
This was followed by Raven’s Matrices tests for IQ, and tests to measure
executive/self control

Initial tests – rich & poor score same.
Financial stress made poor more impulsive
0.85 0.840.81
0.64
Rich Poor
Cheap
Expensive
Measure of self control
Mani, A., Mullainathan, S., Shafir, E., & Zhao, J. (2013). Poverty impedes cognitive
function. science, 341(6149), 976-980

Example slide with a chart
(you can copy paste and edit the data)
35%
45%
Control Intervention
Proportion
responding (%)
N=136
Source: Author (1999). Title. Journal, issue.

Effect of a perceived unique opportunity
We can’t use everyone in the
study. So could I ask you two
short questions first? First, which
foreign language did you study
in high school? Second, how
many brothers and sisters do
you have?
Regardless of how participants
responded to the two questions,
the experimenter acted as if the
answers matched what he or she
was looking for.

Effect of a perceived unique opportunity
57% 61%
90%
Control Common Unique
Burger, J. M., & Caldwell, D. F. (2011). When opportunity knocks The effect of a perceived unique
opportunity on compliance. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 14(5), 671-680.

Growth Vouchers

Thousands of businesses are benefiting from professional advice. Now
Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your
business. Click here to apply
Control
Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of
getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only
available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply.
Time
limited
You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we
think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the
cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply.
You have
been
chosen
Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a
government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional
advice for your business. Click here to apply.
Everyone
is doing it
Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of
getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.
£2,000
Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of
getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only
available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply.
You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we
think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the
cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply.
Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a
government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional
advice for your business. Click here to apply.
Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of
getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.
Growth Vouchers

Growth Vouchers
Three batches of these emails were sent out to 400,000
businesses that might benefit

Click-through rates for the different emails
1.50% 1.61% 1.64% 1.78%
2.27%
Control £2,000 Everyone is
Doing It
Time Limited You Have Been
Chosen

Attractive: missed hospital appointments
Control
Telephone
number
Costs
£160
Social
Norm
Appt at Mile End
Hospital on Sep 16
at 10:00am. To
cancel or rearrange
call the number on
your appointment
letter.
Appt at Mile End
Hospital on Sep 16
at 10:00am. To
cancel or rearrange
call 02077673200.
We are expecting
you at Mile End
Hospital on Sep 16
at 10:00am. 9 out
of 10 people
attend. Call
02077673200 if
you need to cancel
or rearrange.
We are expecting
you at Mile End
Hospital on Sep 16
at 10:00am. Not
attending costs
NHS £160 approx.
Call 02077673200
if you need to
cancel or
rearrange.

Attractive: missed hospital appointments
11.1%
9.8% 10.0%
8.5%
Control Phone number
added
Social norms Costs to NHS
5,800 fewer missed
appointments in one site
400,000 across England

Probability game 1
The pot starts at $2.
I will flip a coin.
•  If it lands tails, you win the pot and the game is over.
•  If it lands heads I double the pot and flip again.
How much would you play to pay this game?
E.g.
Heads, heads, heads, tails – you win $16
Heads, tails – you win $4

Probability game 2
Guess a number between 1 and 100.
The winner is the person who guesses a number that is 2 / 3 of the
average of everyone else’s guesses.

Compliance messages
Control
Reminder Have you overlooked this payment? In case you might have done, I’m
writing to give you a reminder.
Moral Duty Paying your tax is the right thing to do.
Moral Equity Paying your tax is the fair thing to do.
Public Services According to a 2009 opinion poll, our most valued public services are the
NHS, schools, care for the elderly, and the police. Every single tax
payment helps to run these services.
Costs & Gain Every tax payment we receive means the country has to borrow less
money – reducing costs for us all.
Costs & Loss Every tax payment we do not receive means the country has to borrow
more money - increasing costs for us all.
Deficit According to a 2011 opinion survey, people said that one of the best ways
to improve the economy was to reduce the public debt and deficit. But to
reduce the deficit we need everyone to pay the tax they owe. Please help
us achieve this goal by making your payment now.
Progress You have already successfully filed your tax return. All you need to do now
is call us to pay the amount you said you owe.
Progress & Thanks Thank you for successfully filing your 2010-11 tax return: we appreciate
this requires effort on your part. All you need to do now is call us to pay the
amount you said you owe.
Monitoring We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter.
Monitoring Day We will be checking our records every day to see if you have paid.
Monitoring & Norms Nine out of ten people pay their tax on time - you are currently in the small
minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long
it takes you to respond to this letter.
Moral & Monitoring &
Norms
Paying your tax is the right thing to do, and nine out of ten people pay their
tax on time. You are currently in the small minority of people that have not
paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this
letter.
Deterrence-focused
messages
Public goods
Progress towards
end-state
Moral concerns
Respect / concern

Compliance messages can be more effective
than public service messages
57.0
57.5
57.1
57.7
57.2
56.1
57.4
56.3
55.8 56.0
[VALUE]***
[VALUE]***
[VALUE]***
[VALUE]***
Payment rates at 19 days
N= 105,379

Voter registration lottery

Voter registration lottery
44.8% 46.3% 46.7%
Control £1,000 £5,000

Illusion of progress
The results show that card
one is completed in an
average of 15.6 days
Card two is completed in an
average of 12.7 days
nearly 20% faster

Social norm violation spreads disorder
32%
69%
No Graffiti Graffiti
Littering Encouraged by Graffiti

Social norm violation spreads disorder
13%
25% 27%
No Violation Litter Graffiti
Litter and Graffiti Increase Petty Theft

Nine out of ten people pay their tax on 1me.
Social: self assessment tax

Social: self assessment tax
33.6% 35.1% 35.9% 37.2% 39.0%
Control (8,558) UK Norm
(8,300)
Local Norm
(8,403)
Debt Norm
(8,779)
Local + Debt
Norm (8,643)

“Por favor presente su
declaración del impuesto
sobre la renta”
“Si usted no declara, puede
ser auditado y ser sujeto al
procedimiento establecido
por ley.”
Social: tax in Guatemala

Standard letter – interestingly, it did not tell you how to file your taxes!
“Please file your declaration of income tax.”
“If you do not declare, you may be audited and could face the procedure
established by law.”
“According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the
year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to
declare for this tax”
“Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if
you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be
audited and could face the procedure established by law.”
“You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and
submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your
country?”
Control
BIT
Norms
Oversight
Affect /
Ego
“According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the
year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to
declare for this tax”
“Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if
you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be
audited and could face the procedure established by law.”
“You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and
submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your
country?”

3.9% 4.3% 4.4%
5.0% 5.4% 5.6%
No letter Control BIT Norms Oversight Affect / Ego

Social norms – what do we do compared to
our perception of others
66%
59%
51%
39%
67%
62%
63%
19%
9%
40%
Not saving enough for retirement
Not doing recommended
exercise
Pretend to be sick for work
Avoid taxes
Eat too much sugar
Own Behaviour Norm

Save enough
for retirement
Eat more than the
recommended
amount of sugar
Avoid paying
full amount of
tax
Pretend to be
sick to not go to
work
+30+32 +26 +4 +4
Do the
recommended
amount of physical
activity

Policy aim: recruiting a more diverse police
force
“We will transform the relationship
between the police and the public
We have taken action to boost public
confidence and trust in the police and
now want to go even further.
We will improve the diversity of police
recruitment – especially of black and
ethnic minority officers.”
Conservative Party Manifesto 2015

Stereotype threat
Asian women's performance in a maths test were affected by which
identity was highlighted
49% 54%
43%
No identity highlighted Asian identity
highlighted
Female identity
highlighted
Percentage of questions answered accurately
Shih, M., Pittinsky, T.L. and Ambady, N. (1999) Stereotype susceptibility: identity salience and shifts in
quantitative performance. Psychological Science,10, 1, 80–83.

Treatment message
The “affirmation boost”:
“Before you start the test, I’d like you to take some
time to think about why you want to be a police
constable. For example, what is it about being a
police constable that means the most to you and
your community?”

Test score – BMEs and non-BMEs
111.9
105.9
112.1
110.5
Non-BME BME
Control
Treatment

Joining the Army Reserve

Application rates of candidates for
the Army Reserve
4.5%
[VALUE]
Control Treatment

Reciprocity – People return in kind when you
do something for them

Reciprocity – People return in kind when you
do something for them
12% 14%
21%
No gift Small gift Large gift

10%
15%
18%
27%
Control + Claimant Name + Advisor Name + Reciprocity
The power of reciprocity and personalisation:
% of job seekers turning up to the Jobcentre
Hi Rory, 8 new [job type] are no available at
[employer]. Come to Bedford jobcentre on [date]
and ask Sarah to find out more. I’ve booked you a
place. Good luck, Sam

Cell wall handwritten message

Memory game

Memory test: How did you do?
1. Apple
2. Policeman
3. Cake
4. Helicopter
5. Doctor
6. Cow
7. Golfer
8. France
9. Music Notes
10. Wheat
11. Washing
Machine
13. Money
14. Clock
15. Dog

Ordering effects: primacy, recency and the
‘peak-end’ rule
Primacy Recency
Time
Recall

Recency – applying to crime policy
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Sentence 1
Sentence 2
Jail Community Service

Recency – applying to crime policy
0 20 40 60 80 100
Trial 1
Trial 2
Cold water Warmer water
70% of people preferred
to repeat the longer trial
Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B. L., Schreiber, C. A., & Redelmeier, D. A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to
less: Adding a better end.Psychological science, 4(6), 401-405.

Extended medical procedure for
colonoscopies

Extended procedure - results
2.5
4.9
48%1.7
4.4
53%
Pain at end of
procedure
Total unpleasantness Rate of return for follow
up
Normal Extended
Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: a randomized trial. Pain, 104(1),
187-194.

“You have to deposit at least Rs. 5000 in the
account by December 2010”
31.86%
8.09%
December January
Source: Tu & Soman, 2014

Time Discounting
A
$20 Now
B
$25 in 3 months
A
$20 now
C
$20 now
D
$30 in 3 months
D
$30 in 3 months
E
$20 now
F
$40 in 3 months
F
$40 in 3 months

Why are we impatient?
Younger me Older me
Same person
or different
person?

Students presented with following facts
“the important characteristics that make you the person you are right
now... are established early in life and fixed by the end of adolescence”
vs.
“the important characteristics that make you the person you are right
now... are likely to change radically in young adulthood”
Then asked about $120 voucher. How much bigger would it have to be
for you to wait one year before receiving it?

Thinking your personality is changeable
affects your discount rate
$49
$68
"fixed" "radically change"
Bartels, D. M., & Urminsky, O. (2011). On intertemporal selfishness: How the perceived instability of identity
underlies impatient consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 182-198.

Hyperbolic Discounting
A
$20 Now
B
$30 in 3 months
A
$20 now
C
$20 in 9 months
D
$30 in 12 months
D
$30 in 12 months

Field experiment in ‘dynamic inconsistency’
Shoppers choose food
in advance
Have surprise choice to
switch to less healthy
items on the day
Can choose to commit
to choices in second
week

People switch their grocery choices when
presented with temptation
21%
33%
Switched choices when offered Chose to commit
Sadoff, S., Samek, A. S., & Sprenger, C. (2015). Dynamic inconsistency in food choice: Experimental evidence
from a food desert. Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics Working Paper, (2572821).

Discounting summary
•  Discount rates often higher than you might think
•  Can be affected by sense of ‘persistent self’
•  Other research suggests higher amongst:
•  Drug users
•  Young people
•  Men
•  People who have recently been through a crisis
•  We are also often ‘dynamically inconsistent’

Planning
In standard Get Out the Vote Call
What time will you vote?
Where will you be coming from?
What will you be doing beforehand?

Planning – implementation intentions
42.9% 42.8% 43.4% 43.8%
Control GOTV Self-prediction Implementation
Intentions
Nickerson, D. W., & Rogers, T. (2010). Do you have a voting plan? Implementation intentions,
voter turnout, and organic plan making.Psychological Science, 21(2), 194-199.

Your goal
Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It
can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing
with the group.

My wish is that I want to be able to complete my physiotherapy
exercises in the evening.
My outcome would be that I would feel stronger and happier.
My obstacle is that when I feel a twinge in my muscles as I do the
exercises, I worry it means I’m going to hurt myself, even though I
know that the movement is good for my recovery.
My plan is that when I feel worried I will remind myself that those
twinges aren’t anything to worry about and that movement will help
with the pain over time. I’ll just take things a bit more slowly and
carefully instead of stopping.
Wish: To complete physio exercises in the evening
Outcome: I would feel stronger and happier
Obstacle: I feel a twinge and worry I’m hurting myself
Plan: I’ll remind myself not to worry, to go more slowly

Step 1…
WISH
What is the wish or goal that
you want to achieve?

Step 2…
OUTCOME
What is the best possible thing that would
come from achieving that wish or goal?

Step 2…
Visualise it!
Take time to imagine how it would feel to
have achieved that wish or goal.

Step 3…
OBSTACLE
What is a challenge or difficulty that will
probably come up while you’re trying to
achieve your wish or goal?

Step 2…
Visualise it!
Imagine the moment when you’re most at
risk of not achieving your wish.

Step 4…
PLAN
The thing that you will do when
the obstacle comes up that will help you
overcome that obstacle.

Make a commitment with stakes

Make some progress immediately
Write down a next step you can take today as soon as you leave this
workshop.
It doesn’t matter how small.

samuel.hanes@bi.team

Applying Behavioural Insights to Self and Society

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