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CHAOS Report
2009 results
Project success/failure factors
10 Laws
Forum PMI France Sud - Midi-Pyrénées
21 mai 2010 – Cercle de discussions

2. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
What is CHAOS?
(C H A O S acronym kept secret…)
 Survey of IT project health
• Since 1994
 Standish Group
• Boston, Massachusetts
• "Specializing in IT Value Research"
• www.standishgroup.com
 Lacks scientific rigor ?
• But results consistent with (unscientific) personal experience

3. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
The Standish Group's CHAOS report – 2009 results
• Successful  24 %
• Challenged : late, over budget, and/or with less than the
required features and functions  44%
• Failed : cancelled prior to completion or delivered and never
used  32%
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4. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
The Standish Group's CHAOS report – 2009 results
Risk proportional to project size (quantitatively)
• 61% of successful projects cost under $750,000
• Projects between $750,000 and $3 million have a 38%
chance of success.
• $10 million+ projects have only 2% chance of coming in on
time and on budget.
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5. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
Worst Project Failure Rate in a Decade (1/2)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2009
Succes
sful
16% 27% 26% 28% 34% 29% 35% 32%
Challen
ged
53% 33% 46% 49% 51% 53% 46% 44%
Failed 31% 40% 28% 23% 15% 18% 19% 24%
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2009
Successful
Challenged
Failed

6. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
Worst Project Failure Rate in a Decade (2/2)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2009
Succes
sful
16% 27% 26% 28% 34% 29% 35% 32%
Challen
ged
53% 33% 46% 49% 51% 53% 46% 44%
Failed 31% 40% 28% 23% 15% 18% 19% 24%
6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2009
Failed
Challenged
Successful

7. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
Failure Factors
(as identified by the surveyed projects owners)
Incomplete requirements 13,1%
Lack of user involvement 12,4%
Lack of resources 10,6%
Unrealistic expectations 9,9%
Lack of executive support 9,3%
Changing requirements and specifications 8,7%
Lack of planning 8,1%
Didn't need it any longer 7,5%
Lack of IT management 6,2%
Technology illiteracy 4,3%
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8. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
Success Factors
(as identified by the surveyed projects owners)
User Involvement 15.9%
Executive Management Support 13.9%
Clear Statement of Requirements 13.0%
Proper Planning 9.6%
Realistic Expectations 8.2%
Smaller Project Milestones 7.7%
Competent Staff 7.2%
Clear Vision & Objectives 2.9%
Hard-Working, Focused Staff 2.4%
Other 13.9%
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9. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
CHAOS Success Factors (2009)
(as consolidated by the Standish Group after analysis)
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10. | Titre de la présentation
Laws (prescriptions) and CHAOS Success Factors

11. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
1. Law of the Two Faces
Users are both your best friend and worst enemy
 Successful projects include business-knowledgeable
users with good communication skills.
 Project managers need to cultivate an ecosystem for
users and user groups that enables them to explain the
business process in detail to the IT organization, and
those users should be trained to follow project
management protocols

12. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
1. Cheetah's law
Swift decisions are often better than long, drawn-out
analysis
 This law supports the second CHAOS Success
Factor of Executive Support.
 Projects that have an active and responsive
executive sponsor fare better than those left to hang
alone without a champion

13. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
3. Law of the roads
It does not matter which road everyone comes from as long
as they end up in the same place
 Clarity and focus are essential to a successful
project. This third CHAOS law supports the Success
Factor of Clear Business Objectives

14. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
4. Law of the Five Deadly Sins (1/2)
The Five Deadly Sins are part of all project
ecosystems, healthy and unhealthy
 It is how you deal with each of these sins that will
determine the success or failure of a project.
 This fourth law of CHAOS supports the Emotional
Maturity Success Factor

15. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
4. Law of the Five Deadly Sins (1/2)
Ambition
 Trying to build something too fast with too many people and designed
to be all things to all users.
Arrogance
 Ignoring expert advice from users or project team.
Ignorance
 Not knowing, and not caring to find out.
Fraudulence
 Lowballing (underestimate (a cost) deliberately) estimates to get
project approval.
Abstinence
 Allowing key users or executives to abstain from crucial project
activites.

16. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
5. Law of the Long-Tailed Monster
You will always build too much of what you don’t need and
not enough of what you do need
 50 percent of software features are not used or
wasted, while other features are sorely missed

17. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
6. Law of the Edible Elephant
The only way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time
 software should be built in small, iterative steps with
small, focused teams
 The sixth Law of CHAOS supports the Agile Process
Success Factor.

18. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
7. Law of the Mad Hatter
Complexity causes confusion and cost
 It takes an empathetic(*) organizational environment
to understand the project management process in
order for the team to simplify the project
management practice
 This law is supported by the Project Management
Expertise Success Factor
(*) with the ability to share another person's feelings or emotions as if they were their own.

19. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
8. Law of the Empty Chair
Your best person will leave at the worst possible time
 Turnover is a fact of life
 The best method to combat such an event is to keep
the project cycles short with continuous deliverables
 This law supports the Skilled Resources Success
Factor

20. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
9. Panda’s Law
Inaction is the purest form of failure
 This low supports the Execution Success Factor
Why “Penda”?
In our zoo workshops, the panda bear represents high risk and high reward. When
participants are asked to focus on gain, the panda bear is always part of the solution.
When participants are asked to focus on risk, the panda is always left out of the zoo.
However, when they are asked to consider both risk and gain, the results are mixed. In real
life few projects have true panda bears.
But when they do come about, they need to be embraced and nurtured. Risk is part of every
project, but unnecessary risk should be avoided. Panda’s Law states that inaction is the
purest form of failure.

21. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
10. Law of the Fools
A fool with a tool is still a fool
 This low supports the Execution Success Factor
 Supports the Tools and Infrastructure Success
Factor
 Methods and tools are increasingly applied without
the right experience and expertise

22. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
CHAOS 2009: Salient Findings
 Cost overruns up from 47% in 2006 to 54% in 2009
 Time overruns up from 72% in 2006 to 79% in 2009
 Risk proportional to project size (quantitatively)
• 61% of successful projects cost under $750,000
• Projects between $750,000 and $3 million have a 38%
chance of success.
• $10 million+ projects have only 2% chance of coming in on
time and on budget.

23. | Titre de la présentationCercle de discussions
21-mai-2010
SUD | MIDI-PYRÉNÉES
CHAOS Report
Vincent DUMAIN
In a nutshell….
• Emotional maturity is at last identified as a success factor!
• Agile mindset & practices are certainly answers to mainy project issues.
• Execution is promoted.
• Learnt from the few past years  proved noxious to many project health:
• Rigid financial project monitoring
• Blind adherence to methodologies and use of tools
• Large projets are more prone to fail than smaller ones.
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