1. OPEN KNOWLEDGE TOOL: OPERATIONS,
OUTCOMES, OBSTACLES, OPTIONS IN THE
CASE OF REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION--
USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)
(ADB R-PATA 7248 – Financed by the Investment Climate
Facilitation Fund, established by the Government of Japan)
• Hans-Peter Brunner,
• Kislaya Prasad
• Asian Development Bank
• (December 2012)
• Disclaimer [ The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian
Development Bank. By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian
Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area]

2. Presentation overview:
• 1) The GIS application needs and
functions – also quick review on work of
other development institutions
• 2) Grasping big benefits for the region
through soft and hard project
investments
• 3) Visualization of 3 simulation scenarios
(How to pick up the “big bills left on the
sidewalk” Mancur Olson)
• 4) Implications for action (Getting things
to openly flow)

3. ADB's Statistical data provided to
Google (by ERD)
• http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=hbk05e7q8pair_&safe=on&hl=en&dl=en#ctype=m&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s
&met_s=pop_perc_change&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&idim=country:CO-94:CO-109:CO-47:CO-
13&ifdim=country&pit=1138118400000&hl=en&dl=en
5

4. AidFlows http://www.aidflows.org/
• Map navigation of aid statistics from OECD, WB, and ADB
Beneficiary statistics Development indicators

5. 1. Needs for GIS in ADB
1. Mapping project results as finder
As data clearing
2. Archive of developed map data house
Reduce unnecessary
3. Map sharing for infrastructure project replication of data
planning
For ADB project planning
process
4. Visualization and analyses of macroscopic data
(Economic indices or data for sector outlook) To enhance
CoP and ERD function
5. Making maps for project support (Map section)
This will be skipped to avoid the conflict of the disputed boundary
issue.
6. Additional application in individual purposes:
7. For instance web GIS based regional integration model
7

6. 1. Outcome of functions
• Potential outcomes of introducing ADB GIS platform
1. Map data shared by staff/clients 2. Maps found and shared easily
Project A GIS platform Project B GIS
platform
Maps and satellite Use the data in ADB Map in GIS is easy to find and share
imagery purchased in GIS platform
each project
4. Centralized GIS (Core system shared)
3. Thematic analysis performed
GIS1 GIS2 GIS3
efficiently
GIS
platform Project A Project B Project C
GIS enable users to perform statistical analysis efficiently GIS
9
platform shared in GIS platform
Basic data and software

7. 1. GMS atlas
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8. 1. Visually layering investments on GIS
(over district poverty)
‘
Potential,
pre-
identified
South Asia
Rail plus Road
Network
(purple or
orange)
investments
plus soft
border/
‘behind
border’
infrastr.
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in
(orange dots) this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to
the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

9. 2. Aggregating big benefits/outcomes for the
region through soft and hard project
investments (Grasping the “big bills left on the
sidewalk” Mancur Olson)

10. 2. Agent-Based Model
 After study region is divided into “tiles”
 We populate tiles with economic agents
 Match regional demographics
 Allow agents to produce, consume, work,
trade, etc.
 Match current, or proposed trade
infrastructure
 Simulate COMPETITIVE economic activity
 Track incomes, prices, etc.
 Evaluate / prioritize investments in simulations

11. 2. Agent based, economic geography model --
Tiles and ‘districts’ overlay
[In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation
of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development
Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

12. 2. Trade flow generation by scenario and
country
Percent Increase in Total Volume of Inter-tile Trade
Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India All
Scenario 2 4.05 9.10 2.62 4.74 4.12
Scenario 3 5.24 15.97 4.42 7.22 6.34
Increment 1.19 6.86 1.79 2.48 2.14
Both “hard” and “soft” investments have significant effects on inter-tile trade: the total
volume of trade is higher for all countries (although there are differences in magnitude).
Percent Change in Net Exports (Inter-Country Flows)
Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India
Scenario 2 6.52 9.47 3.24 33.64
Scenario 3 7.96 16.98 3.69 49.27
Increment 1.35 6.86 0.44 11.70
Inter-country effects are large: Infrastructure investments lead to net exports that are
larger for all countries.

13. 2. The trade generation iceberg (‘bills on the side-walk’)
• $million p.a.
• Wilson Otsuki (2007) for all South Asia
• 2643
•
• Phase 1
• 3000
• Phase 2
• 4000

14. 3. Visualization of 3 operational
simulation scenarios (Plan and invest –
or How to pick up the “big bills left on
the sidewalk” Mancur Olson )

15. 3. Prioritizing investments
 Simulate the economy with alternative trade
infrastructure scenarios
 Three specific investment scenarios are
considered (detailed above)
(S1) A benchmark scenario with existing, present day
transport network only [no new investment]
(S2) Enhancement of existing transport with a set of non-
perishable trade-supporting investments only
(S3) Enhancement of existing transport with a full set of
perishable and non-perishable investments

16. 3. Income dynamics
(Existing Infrastructure)
S1, District-Level Incomes (click to run movie)
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area
in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any
judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

17. 3. Income differences
District-income: Income growth above baseline S1, due to S2 investments
(click to run movie)
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area
in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any
judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

18. 3. Income differences
District-income: Income growth above S2 due to S3 investments
(click to run movie)
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area
in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any
judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

19. 3.Income differences
District-level income growth above baseline from full AfT investment package
(click to run movie)
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area
in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any
judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

20. 3. Some key results
 Average incomes increase due to AfT investments
 Both “hard” and “soft” investments are important for
welfare
 Significant variation is observed across the study region
in the benefits from AfT transport and trade
investments
 Many regions in the economic periphery enjoy dramatic
improvement in income from investments
 Regions that become well connected due to
infrastructure investments gain the most
 User fee structure does not significantly affect income
growth and levels (but does affect trade flows)

21. 4. Get things to flow
•From locked-up •To shared, green
potential prosperity

22. 4. What next?
 General Application Development (see business case)
 User friendly interface for web GIS, Run MyCode…
 Licensing arrangements
 Restricted access arrangements, to satisfy
government concerns (sovereign rights, info and
legal integrity, commercial confidentiality…)
 Partnering to open the application, and to show its
potential of combining with open data
 How knowledge tool can be made public for use?
 Ensure sustained development of data base, and
refinement
 Open provision of basic data?
 Provision of club goods?

23. 4. What next?
 From Roadmap Approach to Country Investment
 Further development of regional integration
indicators with targets, baselines
 Further development of project concepts,
implementation plan, with strong country
ownership
 Engage governments in opening up the data and
application, while serving specific investment
needs of governments and ADB, with legally
mandated confidentiality