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MULTIPLE ‐STRATEGY 
                                                           TREND RATED 
                                              AUTOMATIC TRADING SYSTEM
     Portfolio Management Services (PMS)
               Performance Update
                31 January 2011

Vivek Mavani – Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager
BRICS Growth Synopsis

  BRICS Growth is a Long only Diversified Equity Product aimed at generating Absolute Returns

  The Objective is :

        To generate Steady & Consistent returns over medium to long term

        Maintain Low Volatility

        Margin of Safety
           g           y

  The Focus is therefore on Stock Picking with a Buy and Hold philosophy

        Invest in high quality and high growth companies at reasonable valuations and hold them
        over a period of time. (Not trade in & out frequently)

  Our conservative approach to managing investments, (especially during periods of volatility) is
  reflected in our superior performance.
Market Update – Perpective
The
Th corrective phase of November and December continued into January albeit with greater f
           ti   h     fN      b      dD       b     ti   di t J           lb it ith     t ferocity. Whil
                                                                                                it While
Sensex & Nifty corrected by ~11% in January, (~13% from the peak), individual stocks corrected ~15-45%
from the peak

Excess global liquidity drove the markets in 2009 and 2010 that came into the Indian markets (via the
FII’s), saw sharp withdrawals in January 2011. With FII’s as sellers across the board and very limited
buying interest on the domestic investors (both Institutional and non-institutional), it was a sharp correction

The accompanying table shows the correction of various indices in January as well as their correction from
the peak in October-November 2010
Index           Fall from Peak   Fall in January   Index                 Fall from Peak   Fall in January
Nifty              -12.78%          -10.25%        Sensex                    -12.75%          -10.64%
Bank Nifty         -19.80%           -9.75%        BSE Auto                  -14.61%          -13.10%
S&P 500            -14.86%
                    14 86%          -10.45%
                                     10 45%        BSE Capital Goods         -19.01%
                                                                              19 01%          -12.25%
                                                                                               12 25%
CNX Mid Cap        -18.50%          -10.55%        BSE FMCG                  -10.08%          -8.63%
CNX IT             -20.49%          -12.00%        BSE Metals                -8.69%           -8.41%
CNX Realty         -44.68%          -22.69%        BSE Oil & Gas             -15.21%          -10.56%

Although the sharp erosion in stock prices (individual stocks having corrected by 15-45%) makes it look
like a bear market, the fall so far is a correction and not the beginning of a bear market, not as yet

Limiting the downside in the portfolio in such a scenario is always a huge challenge (unless one was totally
out of the market.) Nevertheless, we managed to limit the downside to a large extent
                  )              ,           g                              g
Portfolio Update and Outlook (Cont’d)

Dilemma during the corrective phase in the markets:

     Sell the portfolio and stay liquid. Attempt to re-enter at lower levels

     Stay put holding the portfolio and see a temporary erosion in value

We did both selectively. During the month:

     We largely exited from the Banking sector, (Axis Bank, ICICI Bank & Power Finance Corporation). If
     we had continued to hold them, (was ~20% of December 2010-end), the portfolio would have
                                   ,(                                    ),    p
     declined much more since all of them are currently significantly lower than our selling price. Thus we
     have managed to limit the downside to that extent

     We stayed put in stocks/sectors where we continue to have a high degree of conviction, namely
     Technology sector (Infosys & TCS), Auto (Bajaj Auto) and Capital Goods Sectors (BHEL). Although
     they have also corrected sharply, we would stay invested at least for now, as we feel these would
     bounce back fast when markets stabilise

We also reduced our Mid-cap exposure by booking profits. However, selectively mid-caps will continue to
be an attractive space as individual performances are likely to shine amidst range bound markets

Markets in 2011 are more likely to test Conviction & Patience. Stock picking is likely to be the key in
generating superior returns

However, Credo of Sticking to Quality will always remain and will never be compromised
       ,                 g Q        y          y                              p
Absolute Performance – 31 January 2011


                                                                                           Since
                          Weekly     Monthly      Quarterly   Half Yearly    Annual
                                                                                         Inception
                                                                                             p


BRICS Growth              -3.80%      -9.47%      -11.69%        3.25%       28.36%       36.70%


NIFTY                     -4.13%     -10.25%       -8.50%        2.58%       12.78%        8.31%


SENSEX                    -4.30%     -10.64%       -8.51%        2.57%       12.04%        6.96%


S&P CNX 500               -4.41%     -10.45%      -11.03%       -1.13%        6.46%        7.42%


S&P CNX MIDCAP            -4.36%
                           4 36%     -10.55%
                                      10 55%      -15.36%
                                                   15 36%       -5.86%
                                                                 5 86%       10.01%
                                                                             10 01%       18.28%
                                                                                          18 28%


Inception Date: 1 October, 2009    Portfolio returns are audited and Actual Returns to Investors After
                                   deducting fees (including performance fees) & other expenses
                                            g      (        gp                 )           p
Performance ahead / at least keeping pace with Indices
   Month    BRICS Growth    Nifty    Sensex    S&P CNX 500   CNX Mid Cap
   Oct-09      -0.67%      -7.31%    -7.23%      -6.46%        -1.77%
   Nov-09      2.79%       6.81%     6.48%        7.59%         8.65%
   Dec-09
   D 09        6.27%
               6 27%       3.35%
                           3 35%     3.18%
                                     3 18%        4.43%
                                                  4 43%         3.97%
                                                                3 97%
   Jan-10      -1.84%      -6.13%    -6.34%      -4.00%        -3.11%
   Feb-10      0.75%       0.82%     0.44%       -0.69%        -0.48%
   Mar-10      6.24%
               6 24%       6.64%
                           6 64%     6.68%
                                     6 68%        4.50%
                                                  4 50%         7.50%
                                                                7 50%
   Apr-10      3.77%       0.55%     0.18%        1.27%         4.62%
   May-10      1.86%       -3.63%    -3.50%      -3.24%        -3.79%
   Jun 10
   Jun-10      5.81%       4.45%     3.83%        4.59%         4.83%
   Jul-10      3.84%       1.04%     1.56%        1.23%         3.50%
   Aug-10      7.25%       0.65%     0.58%        1.39%         3.14%
   Sep-10      4.13%       11.35%    11.30%       8.06%         4.88%
   Oct-10      4.03%       0.44%     0.38%        0.95%         1.68%
   Nov-10      -4.26%      -2.58%    -2.55%      -3.85%        -4.84%
   Dec-10      2.02%       4.64%     5.06%        3.34%        -0.56%
   Jan-11      -9.47%      -10.25%   -10.64%     -10.45%       -10.55%
Compared to Top 20 Mutual Funds as of 31 Jan. 2011
                                                                           Ranked on 1 year returns
                                                                                      Performance
   Rank                                Scheme Name
                                                                                 6 Months % 1 Year %
     1     BRICS Growth                                                              3.25      28.36
     2     Canara Robeco FORCE Fund - IP - Growth                                    1.54
                                                                                     1 54      25.04
                                                                                               25 04
     3     HDFC Equity Fund - Growth                                                 4.18      23.65
     4     Escorts High Yield Equity Plan - Growth                                   4.71      23.39
     5     Templeton India Equity Income Fund - Growth                              11.04      23.13
     6     Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund - Growth                               0.49      22.98
     7     Tata Dividend Yield Fund - Growth                                         3.75      22.21
     8     Quantum Long-Term Equity Fund - Growth                                    4.45      22.11
     9     Religare Mid N Small Cap Fund - Growth                                   -2.94      21.40
    10     HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund - Growth                                 -0.05      21.23
    11     ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund - IP I - Growth             5.16      21.08
    12     Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus - Growth                              -0.87      20.78
    13     UTI Dividend Yield Fund - Growth                                          4.66      20.47
    14     Reliance Quant Plus Fund - Ret - Growth                                   7.78      20.19
    15     Kotak Lifestyle Fund - Growth                                            -1.22      20.16
    16     Canara R b
           C       Robeco E Emerging E iti - G
                                  i Equities Growth   th                            -1.75
                                                                                     1 75      20.14
                                                                                               20 14
    17     Sahara Wealth Plus Fund - VP - Growth                                    -0.10      20.13
    18     ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund - Ret - Growth              4.75      20.08
    19     ING Dividend Yield Fund - Growth                                         -0.04      20.00
    20     HDFC Top 200 - Growth                                                     3.31      19.68
          The comparison includes 250 Diversified Equity Funds across all Fund Houses
BRICS Growth NAV Trend

 Performance has been a result of our:                          BRICS Growth NAV v/s Indices (normalised)
       Stock Picking
                                                    160
       Low churn in the portfolio, and
                                                    155
       Conservative attitude (not taking
                                                    150
       excessive risks)
                                                    145
                                                    140
 Our Strategy has been to :
                                                    135
      Buy during panics/declines
                                                    130
      Use sharp rallies to partially book profits
                                                    125
      Opportunistically ride the momentum for
      a part of the portfolio (<15%)                120

      Remain adequately liquid at all times         115
                                                    110

 Adequate liquidity h l :
 Ad    t li idit helps                              105

     Protect against volatility                     100

     Provides enough courage and conviction         95
     to buy into panics                             90
                                                    85

                                                          1‐Oct‐09




                                                                                                      1‐Feb‐10




                                                                                                                                                                        1‐Aug‐10
                                                                                                                                                                                   1‐Sep‐10
                                                                                                                                                                                              1‐Oct‐10
                                                                     1‐Nov‐09
                                                                                1‐Dec‐09
                                                                                           1‐Jan‐10


                                                                                                                 1‐Mar‐10
                                                                                                                            1‐Apr‐10
                                                                                                                                       1‐May‐10
                                                                                                                                                  1‐Jun‐10
                                                                                                                                                             1‐Jul‐10




                                                                                                                                                                                                         1‐Nov‐10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1‐Dec‐10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1‐Jan‐11
 Current cash/liquid balances ~ 29.21% of the
 Portfolio as of January-end 2011
                                                                                  BRICS Growth                                         Nifty                                              Sensex
                                                                                  S&P 500                                              CNX Midcap
BRICS Growth Outperformance Trend
 BRICS Growth has delivered absolute & consistent returns across different market phases
      Significant out-performance in a range bound volatile market, (Stock Picking was the Key)
      Kept pace even during the sharp rally (Buy and Hold, Profit booking at higher levels)
      The f ll in
      Th fall i NAV d i th corrective phase was i li with th I di
                    during the    ti   h        in line ith the Indices (i spite of having
                                                                        (in it f h i
      ~20% exposure to Banking & Financial Services and ~30% in mid & small caps)

                           1 October 2009 ─       25 May 2010 ─      5 November 2010 ─
     Date
                             25 May 2010        5 November 2010        31 January 2011

                             Range bound        Sharp rally across
     Market Scenario                                                  Fall from the Peak
                               Market              the board

     BRICS Growth               15.70%               36.73%               -13.59%

     Nifty                      -5.44%               31.32%               -12.78%

     Sensex                     -6.50%               31.10%               -12.75%

     S&P 500                    -2.84%               29.86%               -14.86%

     CNX Mid-Cap                10.32%               31.54%               -18.50%

              y
     Bank Nifty                 -0.10%               49.90%               -19.80%
How did we do during periods of Volatility – 12 Biggest Falls between Oct.-’09 – Jan.-’11

      How much a portfolio falls during a                       Points               Points               % Fall -
      correction / sharp downturn is as                                   % Fall -             % Fall -
                                                     Date        Fall -               Fall -              BRICS
      important as how much it gains in a                                  Nifty               Sensex
                                                                 Nifty               Sensex               Growth
      bull market
                                                  27-Jan-2010   -159.65   -3.19%     -490.64   -2.92%     -2.29%
      Protecting capital is often more
                                                  03-Nov-2009   -147.80   -3.14%     -491.34   -3.09%     -0.36%
      important during periods of volatility
                                                  19-May-2010   -146.55   -2.89%     -467.27   -2.77%     -0.84%
      Downside        protection     equally
      contributes to superior returns over a
                       p                          25-May-2010   -137.20
                                                                -137 20   -2.78%
                                                                          -2 78%     -447.07
                                                                                     -447 07   -2.71%
                                                                                               -2 71%     -1.62%
                                                                                                          -1 62%
      period of time
                                                  05-Feb-2010   -126.70   -2.61%     -434.02   -2.68%     -0.47%
      We have managed to fall less than
      the indices during each of the sharp        27-Oct-2009   -124.20   -2.50%     -387.10   -2.31%     -0.65%
      falls / panics since our inception
                                                  21-Jan-2010
                                                  21 J 2010     -127.55
                                                                 127 55   -2.44%
                                                                           2 44%     -423.35
                                                                                      423 35   -2.42%
                                                                                                2 42%     -1.32%
                                                                                                           1 32%
      Large liquidity during periods of
      volatility & a low beta portfolio helped.   10-Jan-2011   -141.75   -2.40%     -467.69   -2.38%     -1.92%

                                                  7-Jan-2011    -143.65   -2.38%     -492.93   -2.44%     -1.48%
                                       CNX
   Against     Nifty      Sensex                  09-Dec-2010   -137.2    -2.32%     -454.18   -2.31%     -2.18%
                                      Midcap
    Beta *    0.4985      0.4992      0.5001      01-Jun-2010   -116.10   -2.28%     -372.60   -2.20%     -1.24%

                                                  16-Nov-2010   -132.90   -2.17%     -444.55   -2.19%     -1.44%
      *Beta measures the volatility of the
                                     y
         portfolio relative to the index
Portfolio Breakup

            Market Cap Breakup                                             Sectoral Allocation
                                                                                       Automobiles
                                                                           Oil & Gas       6%
                                                                              11%                     Banking &
         Cash                                                                                        Finance 6%
        29.21%
                                                          Infrastructure
                                                                                                           Branded
                                                            & Capital
                                                                                                          Garments &
                                                           Goods 13%
                                      Large Cap                                                           Retail 12%
                                       47.78%

                                                           Information
                                                           Technology
                                                               13%
Small Cap
 15.75%                                                                                              Cash 29%
                                                                    FMCG 10%
                 Mid Cap
                  7.26%




                           Large Cap.        More than Rs 5,000 crores
                           Mid-Cap.          Rs 1,000 - 5,000 crores
                           Small Cap.        Less than Rs 1,000 crores
Low Portfolio Turnover (Buy & Hold at work)

                                                    Portfolio Turnover                       Re-deployed part of
                                                                                              liquid balances by
        1.00                                                                                 buying on declines

        0.90
        0 90
                                                                                                                   Increased
                                                                  Turnover increased as                             the Cash
        0.80                                                        we partly booked                                  levels
                                                                  profits at higher levels
        0.70

        0.60
        0 60
times




        0.50

        0.40

        0.30
        0 30

        0.20

        0.10

        0.00
        0 00
               Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11




                                                            Portfolio Turnover
Market Outlook
Global
Gl b l macro economic risks, I fl ti and hi h commodity prices will continue t weigh on th markets.
                        i i k Inflation d higher   dit    i     ill    ti    to  i h    the   k t
Will definitely have repercussions on India

Concerns on macro economic front, (Inflation, fiscal deficits, higher commodity prices etc.) necessitates
tightening liquidity and higher interest rate cycle going forward. We feel that there is a long way to go on the
interest rate cycle. This could threaten to slowdown the “India Growth Story.”

Excess global liquidity was the primary reason for the sharp rallies across all emerging markets in 2009 and
2010. However, we are already seeing the impact of marginal withdrawal of liquidity as foreign fund flows
reversed in January 2011

Although Valuations have corrected significantly in the last three months, they are reasonable but still not
cheap when seen in light of growth outlook going forward. Earnings estimates for FY12 are likely to be
revised down post the current results season

      We had anticipated (
                         (and mentioned in our previous updates) about sharp declines in stock prices if
                                                                )                                      f
      corporate earnings disappoint. Several large and prominent corporates actually disappointed on
      earnings or growth outlook going forward

      Where the earnings were in line, the earnings growth going forward raises concerns on back of :

            Increasing interest rates and tight liquidity, making capital raising both difficult and expensive

            Higher commodity prices across the board, (cost pressures are already beginning to be felt)

            Little flexibility in increasing the end product prices thus putting pressure on margins
                                                             prices,
Market Outlook (cont’d)
Key Investment Theme in 2011

Focus on stocks/sectors where growth in sales and earnings is not sensitive to:

      Interest rates (both for themselves as well as their end customers)

      They have reasonable pricing power to pass on higher costs as a result of higher commodity
      prices, and thus protect margins

Valuations v/s growth favour bottom up stock picking across the spectrum (large and mid-cap), rather than
top-down approach. I di id l performances could h
t d               h Individual    f             ld have a wide variance among th peer group
                                                            id    i             the

Stocks/Sectors to avoid are those where growth is dependent on fresh issue of capital (both debt and
equity) as tight liquidity would make fund raising both difficult and expensive. This will have serious
implications on growth

Pockets of opportunities are still available in stocks/sectors where growth is steady, are adequately funded
and valuations leave room for upside

It is quite possible, that in 2011 will see indices in a broad range but individual stocks could give excellent
returns. St k picking will be the key
   t      Stock i ki         ill b th k

It is a good time to build a high quality long term portfolio by Buying on Declines

However, Markets in 2011 are likely to Test Conviction & Patience
Our Strategy
  “Time” in the
  “Ti ” i th markets i more i
                k t is      important th “Ti i ” th markets
                                 t t than “Timing” the k t


  Superior long-term sustainable returns are not made by timing the markets in terms of selling at
  the peaks. They are a result of purchase prices that are attractive in terms of valuations with
  adequate Margin of Safety


  Our strategy going ahead would continue to be, bottom up stock picking and be extremely
  selective:
       Buy on declines
       Use sharp rallies to partially book profits
       Opportunistically ride the momentum for only a small part of the portfolio
       Remain adequately liquid at all times


  The sectors that we are bullish and continue to be over weight are:
       Technology (Software Services),
       Capital Goods and Infrastructure Construction
       Oil and Gas including Gas Transportation & Distribution,
       Domestic Consumption themes like FMCG, Paints, Branded Garments, etc.
Happy Investing

              Thank You
Vivek Mavani – Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager
          vivek.mavani@bricssecurities.com

             BRICS SECURITIES LIMITED
             1st Floor, Sadhana House,
             570, P. B. Marg,
             Behind Mahindra Towers,
             Worli, Mumbai – 400 018.
             Tel: 91-22-6636 0000.
                  91 22 6636 0000

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BRICS PMS Performance Update - 31 January 2011

  • 1. MULTIPLE ‐STRATEGY  TREND RATED  AUTOMATIC TRADING SYSTEM Portfolio Management Services (PMS) Performance Update 31 January 2011 Vivek Mavani – Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager
  • 2. BRICS Growth Synopsis BRICS Growth is a Long only Diversified Equity Product aimed at generating Absolute Returns The Objective is : To generate Steady & Consistent returns over medium to long term Maintain Low Volatility Margin of Safety g y The Focus is therefore on Stock Picking with a Buy and Hold philosophy Invest in high quality and high growth companies at reasonable valuations and hold them over a period of time. (Not trade in & out frequently) Our conservative approach to managing investments, (especially during periods of volatility) is reflected in our superior performance.
  • 3. Market Update – Perpective The Th corrective phase of November and December continued into January albeit with greater f ti h fN b dD b ti di t J lb it ith t ferocity. Whil it While Sensex & Nifty corrected by ~11% in January, (~13% from the peak), individual stocks corrected ~15-45% from the peak Excess global liquidity drove the markets in 2009 and 2010 that came into the Indian markets (via the FII’s), saw sharp withdrawals in January 2011. With FII’s as sellers across the board and very limited buying interest on the domestic investors (both Institutional and non-institutional), it was a sharp correction The accompanying table shows the correction of various indices in January as well as their correction from the peak in October-November 2010 Index Fall from Peak Fall in January Index Fall from Peak Fall in January Nifty -12.78% -10.25% Sensex -12.75% -10.64% Bank Nifty -19.80% -9.75% BSE Auto -14.61% -13.10% S&P 500 -14.86% 14 86% -10.45% 10 45% BSE Capital Goods -19.01% 19 01% -12.25% 12 25% CNX Mid Cap -18.50% -10.55% BSE FMCG -10.08% -8.63% CNX IT -20.49% -12.00% BSE Metals -8.69% -8.41% CNX Realty -44.68% -22.69% BSE Oil & Gas -15.21% -10.56% Although the sharp erosion in stock prices (individual stocks having corrected by 15-45%) makes it look like a bear market, the fall so far is a correction and not the beginning of a bear market, not as yet Limiting the downside in the portfolio in such a scenario is always a huge challenge (unless one was totally out of the market.) Nevertheless, we managed to limit the downside to a large extent ) , g g
  • 4. Portfolio Update and Outlook (Cont’d) Dilemma during the corrective phase in the markets: Sell the portfolio and stay liquid. Attempt to re-enter at lower levels Stay put holding the portfolio and see a temporary erosion in value We did both selectively. During the month: We largely exited from the Banking sector, (Axis Bank, ICICI Bank & Power Finance Corporation). If we had continued to hold them, (was ~20% of December 2010-end), the portfolio would have ,( ), p declined much more since all of them are currently significantly lower than our selling price. Thus we have managed to limit the downside to that extent We stayed put in stocks/sectors where we continue to have a high degree of conviction, namely Technology sector (Infosys & TCS), Auto (Bajaj Auto) and Capital Goods Sectors (BHEL). Although they have also corrected sharply, we would stay invested at least for now, as we feel these would bounce back fast when markets stabilise We also reduced our Mid-cap exposure by booking profits. However, selectively mid-caps will continue to be an attractive space as individual performances are likely to shine amidst range bound markets Markets in 2011 are more likely to test Conviction & Patience. Stock picking is likely to be the key in generating superior returns However, Credo of Sticking to Quality will always remain and will never be compromised , g Q y y p
  • 5. Absolute Performance – 31 January 2011 Since Weekly Monthly Quarterly Half Yearly Annual Inception p BRICS Growth -3.80% -9.47% -11.69% 3.25% 28.36% 36.70% NIFTY -4.13% -10.25% -8.50% 2.58% 12.78% 8.31% SENSEX -4.30% -10.64% -8.51% 2.57% 12.04% 6.96% S&P CNX 500 -4.41% -10.45% -11.03% -1.13% 6.46% 7.42% S&P CNX MIDCAP -4.36% 4 36% -10.55% 10 55% -15.36% 15 36% -5.86% 5 86% 10.01% 10 01% 18.28% 18 28% Inception Date: 1 October, 2009 Portfolio returns are audited and Actual Returns to Investors After deducting fees (including performance fees) & other expenses g ( gp ) p
  • 6. Performance ahead / at least keeping pace with Indices Month BRICS Growth Nifty Sensex S&P CNX 500 CNX Mid Cap Oct-09 -0.67% -7.31% -7.23% -6.46% -1.77% Nov-09 2.79% 6.81% 6.48% 7.59% 8.65% Dec-09 D 09 6.27% 6 27% 3.35% 3 35% 3.18% 3 18% 4.43% 4 43% 3.97% 3 97% Jan-10 -1.84% -6.13% -6.34% -4.00% -3.11% Feb-10 0.75% 0.82% 0.44% -0.69% -0.48% Mar-10 6.24% 6 24% 6.64% 6 64% 6.68% 6 68% 4.50% 4 50% 7.50% 7 50% Apr-10 3.77% 0.55% 0.18% 1.27% 4.62% May-10 1.86% -3.63% -3.50% -3.24% -3.79% Jun 10 Jun-10 5.81% 4.45% 3.83% 4.59% 4.83% Jul-10 3.84% 1.04% 1.56% 1.23% 3.50% Aug-10 7.25% 0.65% 0.58% 1.39% 3.14% Sep-10 4.13% 11.35% 11.30% 8.06% 4.88% Oct-10 4.03% 0.44% 0.38% 0.95% 1.68% Nov-10 -4.26% -2.58% -2.55% -3.85% -4.84% Dec-10 2.02% 4.64% 5.06% 3.34% -0.56% Jan-11 -9.47% -10.25% -10.64% -10.45% -10.55%
  • 7. Compared to Top 20 Mutual Funds as of 31 Jan. 2011 Ranked on 1 year returns Performance Rank Scheme Name 6 Months % 1 Year % 1 BRICS Growth 3.25 28.36 2 Canara Robeco FORCE Fund - IP - Growth 1.54 1 54 25.04 25 04 3 HDFC Equity Fund - Growth 4.18 23.65 4 Escorts High Yield Equity Plan - Growth 4.71 23.39 5 Templeton India Equity Income Fund - Growth 11.04 23.13 6 Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund - Growth 0.49 22.98 7 Tata Dividend Yield Fund - Growth 3.75 22.21 8 Quantum Long-Term Equity Fund - Growth 4.45 22.11 9 Religare Mid N Small Cap Fund - Growth -2.94 21.40 10 HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund - Growth -0.05 21.23 11 ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund - IP I - Growth 5.16 21.08 12 Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus - Growth -0.87 20.78 13 UTI Dividend Yield Fund - Growth 4.66 20.47 14 Reliance Quant Plus Fund - Ret - Growth 7.78 20.19 15 Kotak Lifestyle Fund - Growth -1.22 20.16 16 Canara R b C Robeco E Emerging E iti - G i Equities Growth th -1.75 1 75 20.14 20 14 17 Sahara Wealth Plus Fund - VP - Growth -0.10 20.13 18 ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund - Ret - Growth 4.75 20.08 19 ING Dividend Yield Fund - Growth -0.04 20.00 20 HDFC Top 200 - Growth 3.31 19.68 The comparison includes 250 Diversified Equity Funds across all Fund Houses
  • 8. BRICS Growth NAV Trend Performance has been a result of our: BRICS Growth NAV v/s Indices (normalised) Stock Picking 160 Low churn in the portfolio, and 155 Conservative attitude (not taking 150 excessive risks) 145 140 Our Strategy has been to : 135 Buy during panics/declines 130 Use sharp rallies to partially book profits 125 Opportunistically ride the momentum for a part of the portfolio (<15%) 120 Remain adequately liquid at all times 115 110 Adequate liquidity h l : Ad t li idit helps 105 Protect against volatility 100 Provides enough courage and conviction 95 to buy into panics 90 85 1‐Oct‐09 1‐Feb‐10 1‐Aug‐10 1‐Sep‐10 1‐Oct‐10 1‐Nov‐09 1‐Dec‐09 1‐Jan‐10 1‐Mar‐10 1‐Apr‐10 1‐May‐10 1‐Jun‐10 1‐Jul‐10 1‐Nov‐10 1‐Dec‐10 1‐Jan‐11 Current cash/liquid balances ~ 29.21% of the Portfolio as of January-end 2011 BRICS Growth Nifty Sensex S&P 500 CNX Midcap
  • 9. BRICS Growth Outperformance Trend BRICS Growth has delivered absolute & consistent returns across different market phases Significant out-performance in a range bound volatile market, (Stock Picking was the Key) Kept pace even during the sharp rally (Buy and Hold, Profit booking at higher levels) The f ll in Th fall i NAV d i th corrective phase was i li with th I di during the ti h in line ith the Indices (i spite of having (in it f h i ~20% exposure to Banking & Financial Services and ~30% in mid & small caps) 1 October 2009 ─ 25 May 2010 ─ 5 November 2010 ─ Date 25 May 2010 5 November 2010 31 January 2011 Range bound Sharp rally across Market Scenario Fall from the Peak Market the board BRICS Growth 15.70% 36.73% -13.59% Nifty -5.44% 31.32% -12.78% Sensex -6.50% 31.10% -12.75% S&P 500 -2.84% 29.86% -14.86% CNX Mid-Cap 10.32% 31.54% -18.50% y Bank Nifty -0.10% 49.90% -19.80%
  • 10. How did we do during periods of Volatility – 12 Biggest Falls between Oct.-’09 – Jan.-’11 How much a portfolio falls during a Points Points % Fall - correction / sharp downturn is as % Fall - % Fall - Date Fall - Fall - BRICS important as how much it gains in a Nifty Sensex Nifty Sensex Growth bull market 27-Jan-2010 -159.65 -3.19% -490.64 -2.92% -2.29% Protecting capital is often more 03-Nov-2009 -147.80 -3.14% -491.34 -3.09% -0.36% important during periods of volatility 19-May-2010 -146.55 -2.89% -467.27 -2.77% -0.84% Downside protection equally contributes to superior returns over a p 25-May-2010 -137.20 -137 20 -2.78% -2 78% -447.07 -447 07 -2.71% -2 71% -1.62% -1 62% period of time 05-Feb-2010 -126.70 -2.61% -434.02 -2.68% -0.47% We have managed to fall less than the indices during each of the sharp 27-Oct-2009 -124.20 -2.50% -387.10 -2.31% -0.65% falls / panics since our inception 21-Jan-2010 21 J 2010 -127.55 127 55 -2.44% 2 44% -423.35 423 35 -2.42% 2 42% -1.32% 1 32% Large liquidity during periods of volatility & a low beta portfolio helped. 10-Jan-2011 -141.75 -2.40% -467.69 -2.38% -1.92% 7-Jan-2011 -143.65 -2.38% -492.93 -2.44% -1.48% CNX Against Nifty Sensex 09-Dec-2010 -137.2 -2.32% -454.18 -2.31% -2.18% Midcap Beta * 0.4985 0.4992 0.5001 01-Jun-2010 -116.10 -2.28% -372.60 -2.20% -1.24% 16-Nov-2010 -132.90 -2.17% -444.55 -2.19% -1.44% *Beta measures the volatility of the y portfolio relative to the index
  • 11. Portfolio Breakup Market Cap Breakup Sectoral Allocation Automobiles Oil & Gas 6% 11% Banking & Cash Finance 6% 29.21% Infrastructure Branded & Capital Garments & Goods 13% Large Cap Retail 12% 47.78% Information Technology 13% Small Cap 15.75% Cash 29% FMCG 10% Mid Cap 7.26% Large Cap. More than Rs 5,000 crores Mid-Cap. Rs 1,000 - 5,000 crores Small Cap. Less than Rs 1,000 crores
  • 12. Low Portfolio Turnover (Buy & Hold at work) Portfolio Turnover Re-deployed part of liquid balances by 1.00 buying on declines 0.90 0 90 Increased Turnover increased as the Cash 0.80 we partly booked levels profits at higher levels 0.70 0.60 0 60 times 0.50 0.40 0.30 0 30 0.20 0.10 0.00 0 00 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Portfolio Turnover
  • 13. Market Outlook Global Gl b l macro economic risks, I fl ti and hi h commodity prices will continue t weigh on th markets. i i k Inflation d higher dit i ill ti to i h the k t Will definitely have repercussions on India Concerns on macro economic front, (Inflation, fiscal deficits, higher commodity prices etc.) necessitates tightening liquidity and higher interest rate cycle going forward. We feel that there is a long way to go on the interest rate cycle. This could threaten to slowdown the “India Growth Story.” Excess global liquidity was the primary reason for the sharp rallies across all emerging markets in 2009 and 2010. However, we are already seeing the impact of marginal withdrawal of liquidity as foreign fund flows reversed in January 2011 Although Valuations have corrected significantly in the last three months, they are reasonable but still not cheap when seen in light of growth outlook going forward. Earnings estimates for FY12 are likely to be revised down post the current results season We had anticipated ( (and mentioned in our previous updates) about sharp declines in stock prices if ) f corporate earnings disappoint. Several large and prominent corporates actually disappointed on earnings or growth outlook going forward Where the earnings were in line, the earnings growth going forward raises concerns on back of : Increasing interest rates and tight liquidity, making capital raising both difficult and expensive Higher commodity prices across the board, (cost pressures are already beginning to be felt) Little flexibility in increasing the end product prices thus putting pressure on margins prices,
  • 14. Market Outlook (cont’d) Key Investment Theme in 2011 Focus on stocks/sectors where growth in sales and earnings is not sensitive to: Interest rates (both for themselves as well as their end customers) They have reasonable pricing power to pass on higher costs as a result of higher commodity prices, and thus protect margins Valuations v/s growth favour bottom up stock picking across the spectrum (large and mid-cap), rather than top-down approach. I di id l performances could h t d h Individual f ld have a wide variance among th peer group id i the Stocks/Sectors to avoid are those where growth is dependent on fresh issue of capital (both debt and equity) as tight liquidity would make fund raising both difficult and expensive. This will have serious implications on growth Pockets of opportunities are still available in stocks/sectors where growth is steady, are adequately funded and valuations leave room for upside It is quite possible, that in 2011 will see indices in a broad range but individual stocks could give excellent returns. St k picking will be the key t Stock i ki ill b th k It is a good time to build a high quality long term portfolio by Buying on Declines However, Markets in 2011 are likely to Test Conviction & Patience
  • 15. Our Strategy “Time” in the “Ti ” i th markets i more i k t is important th “Ti i ” th markets t t than “Timing” the k t Superior long-term sustainable returns are not made by timing the markets in terms of selling at the peaks. They are a result of purchase prices that are attractive in terms of valuations with adequate Margin of Safety Our strategy going ahead would continue to be, bottom up stock picking and be extremely selective: Buy on declines Use sharp rallies to partially book profits Opportunistically ride the momentum for only a small part of the portfolio Remain adequately liquid at all times The sectors that we are bullish and continue to be over weight are: Technology (Software Services), Capital Goods and Infrastructure Construction Oil and Gas including Gas Transportation & Distribution, Domestic Consumption themes like FMCG, Paints, Branded Garments, etc.
  • 16. Happy Investing Thank You Vivek Mavani – Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager vivek.mavani@bricssecurities.com BRICS SECURITIES LIMITED 1st Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Behind Mahindra Towers, Worli, Mumbai – 400 018. Tel: 91-22-6636 0000. 91 22 6636 0000