Robust Decisions Bootcamp

Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
1
Welcome
to
Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind
Three Horizons Bootcamp
Wolfson College Oxford
18-19 September 2013

AGENDA, 18 September
TODAY
•  1.00 – 2.00 Orientation: arrival, check-in, light buffet
lunch, introductions.
•  2.00 – 3.00 Future Consciousness
•  3.00 – 5.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Length
What has happened? What is beginning to happen? How can
timelines connecting past patterns and emerging changes extend
the range of our foresight?
Exercise: Using the Three Horizons Framework and connecting it to
the Gartner Hype Cycle, Schumpeter / Perez, and Age-Cohort
Analysis (generational analysis).
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2

TOMORROW MORNING
•  9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections
•  10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth
Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons
mapping.
•  11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea
•  11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1
Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perpective to
map broad implications of change.
•  12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson

TOMORROW AFTERNOON
Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore
how change itself transforms.
•  3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea
•  3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own
organisations. Helping each other design quick-
implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or
clients.
•  4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.
Thank you!

5
INTRODUCTIONS

Our story: Where this came from
•  Gill & Laurie's book
•  Interest in futures & investment
•  Meetings to develop the ideas.
•  The cards & advisory work

What we covered
•  Futures trends.
•  Dialogue about the forces.
•  Cognitive bias.
•  3 horizons
•  Scenarios
In the future, we will all fly organic.
The three horizons framework for layering change life-
cycles

8
“FUTURE CONSCIOUSNESS”

Timelines, Change, Time Horizons
•  Extended timelines:
– Past change
– Current conditions
– Emerging futures

Three Horizons
•  Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum:
– Technology roadmapping - inadequate
– UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures
– Emerging practice
– Reflection
Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope
•  Curry and Hodgson, cases and article
•  Growing community of practice

Horizon ONE
•  Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations
of past decisions and designs
•  H1 systems are fully integrated with
surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
•  Well-established ways of dealing with
problems frame approaches to new
challenges
•  Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a
limited resource
MANAGERIAL

Horizon THREE
•  Imagined futures and emerging changes –
transformative shifts from the present
•  Explores the ‘full range of possible social
settlements and systems that could be
brought into being’
•  Surfaces and questions underlying cultural
assumptions
•  Dominated by qualitative awareness of time
as a defining moment of decision
VISIONARY

Horizon TWO
•  Looks both ways – past and future – to
respond to limitations of H1 and
opportunities of H3
•  Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence
•  Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past
•  Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost
– trade-offs that must be made
ENTREPRENEURIAL

Horizons Insights
“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which
change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead
become aware that everything that seems
fixed and stable is just part of a slow process
of change, embedded in other processes that
extend out as far as we want to explore.”

Three Horizons

Time and Three Horizons

Charles Handy on Change
Performance
Time
A
B
C
D
E

Time and Three Horizons

Three Horizons: Quick Scenarios 1

Three Horizons: Quick Scenarios 2

Gartner Hype Cycle

24
Dinner – 6.45 – 7.45, in Hall
Relaxing – Wine and talk after
…and so to bed.

MORNING
•  9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections
•  10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth
Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons
mapping.
•  11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea
Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perspective to
map broad implications of change.
•  12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson

AFTERNOON
Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore
how change itself transforms.
•  3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea
•  3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own
organisations. Helping each other design quick-
implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or
clients.
•  4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.
Thank you!

Causal Layered Analysis
Dr. Sohail Inayatullah
27

Causes
Metaphors and Myths
Problem
Social, Economic,
Cultural
Discourse Analysis:
culture, values, language, postmodernisms, spiral
dynamics memes (alternatives)
Myth/Metaphor Analysis:
Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock stories,
gut level responses, emotional responses,
visual images - may not be words for it
(visioning)
Worldview
The “Litany”: official public description of issue
observational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media spin,
opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)
Social Science Analysis: short-term historical
facts
start connecting; systems analysis, feedback interconnections,
technical explanations, social analysis, policy analysis
(systems)
Sources: R. Slaughter, “Integral Opera6ng System” World Future Society, July 2003, drawing on Sohail Inayatullah;
Dennis List, “3 Maps of the Future,” July 18, 2003; Andy Hines, UH-Clear Lake, 2006.
Con6nuous
Years
Societal/Civiliza6onal
Decades
Time Scale of Change

Litany: official public description
of the issue
•  Definition:
–  events,
–  trends,
–  problems,
–  “word on the street,”
–  media spin,
–  official positions.
•  Example: Marriage.
–  Climbing divorce
rate;
–  More single parent &
“blended” families;
–  More cross-cultural,
cross-church, &
alternative
marriages;
–  More commuting
marriages.

Causes: social science
and systems analysis
•  Definition:
–  structures,
–  interrelationships,
–  systems,
–  policy analysis,
technical
explanations, role of
the state and
interest groups.
–  Fragmentation of
communities;
–  Wedding (party) no
longer linked to
marriage
(commitment);
–  AIDS epidemic >>
monogamy = safety.

Worldview
•  Definition:
–  culture,
–  values,
–  paradigms / mental
models
–  how language
frames / constrains
the issue.
–  Be fruitful -- and be
sanctified;
–  Purity, commitment,
monogamy, fidelity,
childrearing;
–  Double standards;
–  “Old man/lady;”
“breadwinner” and
“home-maker”, etc. .

Myth/Metaphor
•  Definition:
–  collective
archetypes,
–  gut/emotional
responses,
–  visual images.
–  Adam and Eve;
–  The Great Mother;
–  American Gothic;
–  Someone for everyone
-- but only one;
–  Cake - dance - ring;
–  Security vs. fear of
commitment.

Eg, Futures for Marriage
•  From “one on one” to Heinlein’s linear or
clan marriages;
•  From “cake-dance-ring” to digital candy -
SecondLife celebration - embedded ID
chip;
•  From American Gothic to the Beckhams --
celebrity couples.

Medical mistakes
Litany High rate of medical mistakes
Solu6on: more GP training
Systemic
causes
Audit on causes of mistakes: communica6on, new technologies, administra6on
Solu6on: more efficient, smarter systems
Worldview Reduc6onist modern medical paradigm creates hierarchy
Solu6on: enhance power of pa6ents; move to different health systems
Myth /
metaphor
“Doctor knows best”
Solu6on: “Take charge of your health”
34
CLA Examples
City transport futures
Litany Conges6on and pollu6on
Solu6on: expand roads and regulate emissions
Systemic
causes
Audit points of conges6on, explore new technologies and travel choices
Solu6on: integrated planning and expansion of travel choices
Worldview Modernist centralised city
Solu6on: redefine the city, decentralise the city, and rethink 6me – develop city 6me policies
Myth /
metaphor
“Bigger is beèr”
Solu6on: “Create post-modern village”

CHANGE!
Using CLA to create
alternative scenarios / visions:
Iden:fy the litany: current condi:ons & events.

Analyze the causes: interrela:onships, systems.

Explore the worldview: values and cultural icons.

Unveil the myths/metaphors: archetypes, emo:ons.
Analyse down, iden6fying alterna6ve litanies,
causes, worldviews, and myths: create change by
choosing alterna6ves as you surface.

•  Pick an issue, e.g., security in global tourism.
•  Brainstorm each level separately and talk about it:
–  Brainstorm on sticky note pads
–  Cluster like items into themes
–  Identify gaps and needs for research (optional)
•  Create a scenario or vision by:
–  choosing an alternative metaphor / myth or worldview;
–  working back up through the layers, brainstorming new
contents for each layer that would logically emerge from
the changes in the foundation layer below;
–  until you reach a new set of events and behaviours
comprising an entirely new litany.
CLA Exercise:

Litany: public descriptions
Definition:
–  events,
–  trends,
–  problems,
–  “word on the
street,”
–  media spin,
–  official
positions.
Example: security in global tourism.
–  47 kidnappings of tourists in Kuwait;
–  More restrictions on conditions of
travel;
–  Increased use of biometric IDs;
–  More security checks;
–  Explosions in Sharm El Sheikh;
–  Government advice on safety;
–  Increased public perception of
insecurity;
–  Shifting “comparative advantage” of
perceived secure destinations.

Causes: social science and
systems analysis
Definition:
–  structures,
–  interrelationships,
–  systems,
–  policy analysis,
technical
explanations, role
of the state and
interest groups.
Example: security in global
tourism.
–  Tourists as currency (trade for
infrastructure improvements);
–  Media attention to security
incidents;
–  Rapid reallocation of financial
resources to security;
–  Local hostility due to negative
social and environmental
impacts of tourism.

Worldview
Definition:
–  culture,
–  values,
–  Paradigms /
mental
models
–  how language
frames /
constrains the
issue.
Example: security in global
tourism.
–  Tourists bring challenges to our
values;
–  State responsible for our
security;
–  Environmental consciousness;
–  Terrorists/-ism is MAD and BAD
-- not freedom fighters but
criminals;
–  Terrorism a global issue;
–  Militarisation of many nations.

Myth/Metaphor
Definition:
–  collective
archetypes,
–  Gut /
emotional
responses,
–  visual
images.
Example: security in global tourism.
–  “White hats vs black hats” - good -
bad seen as dichotomy;
–  “Rucksacks with wires” - portable
chaos;
–  Destination seen as “dangerous
territory” or “dark territory” -
unknown seen as dangerous;
–  Civilised vs. exotic; exotic = not
civilised;
–  Fear (caused by ignorance) of other;
–  “Adventure has risks”.

Alternative future:
security in global tourism.
New myths:
The sacred pilgrimage;
the other as teacher and
guide.
New worldviews / values:
Travel = educa6on =
beneﬁts; diversity &
diﬀerence celebrated.
New systems:
Local support structures
embedding visitors in local
life, local systems.
Move from the myth of risky
adventures in exo6c
unknown lands peopled by
dangerous strangers…
…to the myth of a joint pilgrimage
of learning embedded within a local
network of experts sharing their
unique environment.
New events, behaviours:
Visitors - ‘pilgrims’ -
assigned local hosts,
guides, & interpreters.
Alternate myths and
values generate new
opera:ng
assump:ons and
crea:ve solu:ons.

VERGE General Practice Framework
Dr. Richard Lum
Focus not on the drivers, but on the impacts:
How does change ripple out across the various segments of human
experience?
Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the
Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a
set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human
experience.
For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the
common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while
our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need
for them does not.
Michele Bowman and Richard Lum
Goal: Use the Ethnographic Futures Framework (EFF) to integrate a new
value set or mental model into your organisation, and imagine how different
human actions and responses to your products might align with those new
values.
42www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Verge – exploration of change
focused on people
Verge was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight
and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods and services
The ways in which we
acquire and use the
goods and services
we create
Social structures and
relationships which link
people and
organizations
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we
use to define the
world around us
The technologies
used to connect
people, places
and things
The ways in which
we destroy value
and the reasons for
doing so

The concepts, ideas and
paradigms we use to define
ourselves and the world
around us.
Worldviews
Paradigms
Philosophies
Social Values & Attitudes
Scientiﬁc Models
Culture
Economic Systems
Religion
Politics & Public Policy
DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms
will emerge to help us make sense of the world?
44
www.samiconsulting.co.uk

people and organizations.
Demographics
Family & Lifestyle Groups
Work & Economy
Habitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & Practices
Government
International Relations
Education
RELATE: How will we live together
on planet Earth?

The technologies used to connect people,
places and things, including:
Information Technology
Music
Media
Visual Arts
Language
Space and Urban Design
What arts and technologies will we use to CONNECT
people, places, and things?
Example: radical biotechnology:
DNA-based computing possible;
gifts of bio-designed life the new
Valentine bouquets; genetically
engineered organic sculptures…

The processes and technology through
which we produce goods and services,
including:
Engineering
Wealth
Manufacturing
Innovation Processes
Life Sciences
Materials Sciences
Nanotechnology
Eﬃciency
Workforce
As human beings what will we be inspired to CREATE?
Many new materials ‘manufactured’
on farms: goats produce proteins,
plants produce plastics, etc.;
‘artificial insects’ monitor
agricultural lands, water quality, etc…

The ways in which we acquire and use the
goods and services we create, including:
Modes of Exchange
Retail Practices
Consumer Preferences
Marketing
Patterns of Consumption
Locations of Consumption
Patterns of Raw Materials Use
Touch Points
How will we use the earth’s resources?
More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in
design: self-repair, communicate to
others of their kind, optimise their
intake / output of energy and waste….

The processes that contribute to reducing value
and increasing entropy, including:
Violence and Killing
Damage
Refuse and Waste
Ineﬃciencies
Attempts to Undermine
Values and Norms
Touch Points
DESTROY: How will we destroy value, and what will be
our reasons for doing so?
Potential hazards of engineered nano-
bio-particles on human health and the
broader natural environment and
landscape…

Verge – exploration of change
focused on people:
EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight
and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods and services
The ways in which we
acquire and use the
goods and services
we create
people and
organizations
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we
use to define the
world around us
The technologies
used to connect
people, places
and things
The ways in which
we destroy value
and the reasons for
doing so

Align your organisation
to shape the future

Futures Wheels
•  The Futures wheel is an instrument for
graphical visualisation of direct and
indirect future consequences of a
particular change or development.
•  It is a structured brainstorming tool to
explore the future of a specific topic or
systematically capture the effect of
various future developments on each
other.
52

Futures Wheels: Origins
•  Jerome Glenn
–  Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a
method for policy analysis and
forecasting
–  Also called Implementation Wheel,
Impact Wheel, Mind Mapping, and
Webbing.
•  Joel Barker
–  Cascade thinking: go out at least
three orders of implications to find big
surprises
–  http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-
wheel/index.htm
53

•  Enter your assigned change in the inner
circle of your worksheet.
•  Everyone take five minutes by themselves
to imagine possible impacts of this change
over the next twenty years.
•  Share your individual lists within your group.
Which of these are immediate, or primary,
impacts? Write those down next to the
appropriate spoke .
•  Now consider each primary impact, one by
one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will
have, and map those, connecting each to its
primary impact.
Futures Wheels: Instructions
54

secondary
effects
work?
hobbies?
education?home/
families?
travel?
communications?
economy?
environment?
primary effects
impact
impact
impact
work noisier
“earbud” headphones
to talk to/hear computer
office sound
barriers
silent, eye-tracking
menu navigation
goggles developed
voice input / output,
biometric passwords
Futures Wheel
55
Futures Wheels: Example

voice input / output,
biometric passwords
Futures Wheel
market for “great
voices”
work noisier
no passwords
required drop in carpal tunnel
syndrome
Increase in
worker
productivity
decline in worker
compensation
costs
collapse of
keyboard wrist
rest market
New licensing
opp’ty for popular
singers and actors
pirate market:
great voices
“napsterized”
Rather talk to
your machine
than you…
56
Futures Wheels: Example

Futures Wheels (Impact Wheels) augmented with Verge
Adapted from J Glenn; R
Lum
57
Futures Wheels: Example with Verge

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