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How Skills Gaps Impact Firm
                                                                  Performance in the Arab World
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Public Sector                                                    The operational impacts of skills gaps on Arab companies

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Agenda                              Overview
                                        • Factors affecting demand for skilled labor
1 Prevalence of                         • Global prevalence of skills gaps
   Skills Gaps                          • Presence of skills gaps in the Arab World

                                        • What international experience tells us about the impact of
2 Impact on Firm
                                           skills gaps on private sector firm performance
   Performance
                                        • Impact of economic growth on skills
           Causes of                    • The case for government intervention in skills formation
3
           Skills Gaps
                                        • Skills ecosystem approach to structuring a proactive response
            Reducing                    • Systemic inefficiencies may stall knowledge-based economic development
4                                       • Policy responses to reducing skills gaps based on international experience
           Skills Gaps

Abstract

In the Arab World there is a poor match between regional human capital and the skills demanded by employers with many firms expressing concern that they face
internal employee skills deficiencies that limit performance, a phenomenon that has been popularly labeled as a “skills gap.” Many countries in the Arab World rank
amongst the countries facing the most severe skills gaps in the world. While several surveys in the Arab World have identified soft skills and more basic employability
skills lacking in the workforce, there is a large empirical absence, both globally and in the Arab World, of studies regarding the impact of skills gaps on firm-level
performance. This analysis will attempt to apply empirically driven international research to the case of the Arab World to determine the operational impacts of skills
gaps on Arab companies. With the belief that companies and governments require more rigorous empirical evidence to translate management research into practices
that solve organizational problems, the paper will conclude with suggestions on proactive strategies to close labor skills gaps to increase the competitiveness of key
industries which face skills gaps.



                                                                                          2
Expanding trade, technological change, and changing forms of work
organization have increased the relative demand for skilled workers globally

                                                                         Expanding International Trade
                                                             1           • Trade has increased dramatically
                                                                         • Globalization increases the importance of
                                                                             skills rather than resources
                                                                         • Trade-induced flow of employees from
                                                                             importing, low skill, labor intensive
                                          4                                  industries, to higher skill, export industries                 2
            Other factors                                                                                                              Skill-biased
            • Decline in unionization                                                                                                  Technological Change
            • Tinbergen’s Race:                                                                                                        • Pairing skilled workers
                demand and supply of                                                                                                       with capital raises
                different grades of labor                                        Increasing Global                                         productivity
                governed by trade and                                         Demand for Skilled Labor                                 •   Globalization led to
                technical progress                                                                                                         massive investment
                                                                                                                                       •   FDI
                                                                                                                                       •   Countries adopting
                                                                                                                                           technology from abroad


                                                                         Evolving Forms of Work Organization
                                                             3           • Firms embracing decentralized decision
                                                                             making, less hierarchy, and autonomy
                                                                         •   Communication, decision making, social
                                                                             and problem solving skills are needed in
                                                                             addition to technical skills



Source: Shankar, R. and A. Shah (2001), David H. Autor (1998), Ashton, D., F. Green, et al. (1999), Ashton, D. N. and J. Sung (2002)                               | 3
These conclusions are supported by macroeconomic data showing the growth
  of skilled workers globally, international trade, and investment in fixed capital



 Evolution of Skilled Versus Unskilled Work                              Trade as a % of Global Domestic Product            Gross Fixed Capital Formation
 Number of workers in millions                                           Exports and imports as a % Glob. Dom. Prod.        Investment in fixed capital in trillions
1,000                                                               60                                              3,000
                                                                                                                               Investment in
 900                                         950 960 960            58
                                       920                                                                                     fixed capital assets         2,715
                                 891                                                                                2,500
 800                                                                56               Trade Growth              57              by enterprises,
                                                                                                          57                                                     2,4432,415
                                                             790                     2% CAGR                                   government and
 700                       741     Skilled Workers                                                                                                     2,223
                                                                    54                                              2,000      households
 600                 653
                                   6% CAGR                                                           54                        10% CAGR           1,928
                                                                    52
 500                                                                                                                1,500                         1,639
                                                                                                52
                                                                    50
 400    457                                                                                                                                 1,358
               420                 Unskilled Workers                                                                                   1,192
                                                                    48     49                                       1,000
 300                                                                            49         49
                                   -.38% CAGR                                         48                                          1,041
                                                                                                                            928
 200                                                                46
                                                                                                                     500
 100                 155 160 138 146         177 171 171            44
        131                                                  126
               102
   0                                                                42                                                 0
        1999 00      01     02    03    04    05    06    07 2008         2000 01     02   03   04   05   06 2007           2000 01     02   03     04    05   06   07   08 2009




   Source: International Labor Organization, World Bank                                                                                                                  | 4
In many countries, evidence points to an unmet quantitative demand for highly
skilled workers, known as a “skills shortage,” as well as “skills gaps” in which
firms face qualitative internal skills deficiencies that limit performance



                          Skills Gaps                                                    Skills Shortage

                                                                                              Skill Shortage

                             Skills Gap



         Desired
                                                                                     Quantity of
         Internal
                                                                                       Workers
        Workforce
                                                  Current                              With a              Quantity of
        Skill Level
                                                  Internal                            Particular             Workers
                                                 Workforce                              Skill                With a
                                                 Skill Level                          Required              Particular
                                                                                                              Skill
                                                                                                            Available

   • Employers feel that their existing workforce has inadequate       •   Genuine lack of adequately skilled individuals available
     skill types/levels to meet their business objectives                  in the labor market with the type of skill being sought

   • New entrants to the labor market trained and qualified for        •   Employers unable to recruit staff with the skills they
     occupations but still lack a variety of the skills required           are looking for at the going rate of pay


                                                                   5
                                                                                                                           | 5
Skills gaps are globally widespread with the Arab World, Latin American and
Caribbean, and the Eurasian regions indicating the highest incidence

      Skills gaps are globally prevalent …                                    … and appear to be getting worse

   Prevalence of Skills Gaps by Region
 % of firms indicating they face a major or very severe skills gap

                                                                              The World Bank Enterprise Survey, a global
                                                                              survey of firms with more than five
                          15.01%
                                                                    24%       employees in the manufacturing and services
                                              23.98%                          sectors, indicates skills gaps are globally
                                                                              becoming a more frequent phenomena:
               16.50%
                                                                              • Of 43,705 companies surveyed in 99 countries
                                                                                from 2006-2009, 26.7% indicated that a skills gap
                                                     20.29%                     is either a major or severe obstacle to the current
                  17.81%                                                        operations of their business

                                     19.65%                                   • Of 66,000 firms surveyed in 143 counties from
                                                                                2002-2005, 14% of firms responded this way

    Middle East and North Africa            Latin america and the Carribean   • This represents a nearly 90% increase in firms
    Europe and Central Asia                 Africa                              indicating that they face a skills gap
    East Asia and the Pacific               South Asia




     Source: Author’s calculations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey                                                         | 6
Synthesizing data from the World Bank and regional reports, many of the Arab
countries rank extremely high on a global ranking of skills gaps prevalence
                                       % of Total Firms Suveyed                                          % of Total Firms Suveyed                                        % of Total Firms Suveyed
  Rank     Country and Survey Year      Which Have a Major or       Rank     Country and Survey Year      Which Have a Major or       Rank     Country and Survey Year    Which Have a Major or
                                        Very Severe Skills Gap                                            Very Severe Skills Gap                                          Very Severe Skills Gap
   1     Brazil 2009                            73.03%               42    Oman 2007 MBRF                         33.00%               83    Angola 2006                          20.00%
   2     Kuwait 2007 MBRF                       68.00%               43    Chile 2006                             32.06%               84    Bangladesh 2002                      19.83%
   3     Egypt 2007 MBRF                        66.00%               44    Uzbekistan 2008                        31.97%               85    Tanzania 2006                        18.38%
   4     Chad 2009                              57.33%               45    Peru 2006                              31.33%               86    Lebanon 2007 MBRF                    18.00%
   5     Belarus 2008                           55.31%               46    China 2002                             30.73%               87    Timor Leste 2009                     18.00%
   6     CapeVerde 2009                         53.85%               47    Dominican Republic 2005                30.67%               88    Mongolia 2009                        17.96%
   7     Saudi Arabia 2007 MBRF                 53.00%               48    Estonia 2009                           30.40%               89    Mozambique 2007                      17.95%
   8     UAE 2007 MBRF                            51%                49    Tunisia 2007 MBRF                      30.00%               90    Afghanistan 2008                     17.94%
   9     Kazakhstan 2009                        50.18%               50    Malawi 2009                            30.00%               91    Ethiopia 2002                        17.90%
  10     Russia 2009                            48.90%               51    Thailand 2004                          29.96%               92    Serbia 2009                          17.78%
  11     Argentina 2006                         48.35%               52    Egypt 2004                             29.80%               93    Togo 2009                            17.42%
  12     Morocco 2007 MBRF                      47.00%               53    Kyrgyz Republic 2009                   29.36%               94    Sierra Leone 2009                    17.33%
  13     Romania 2009                           46.21%               54    Guatemala 2006                         29.31%               95    Lesotho 2009                         17.22%
  14     Algeria 2007 MBRF                      45.00%               55    Vanuatu 2009                           28.91%               96    Bhutan 2009                          17.20%
  15     Mauritius 2009                         44.97%               56    Yemen 2010                             28.72%               97    Ireland 2005                         15.63%
  16     Micronesia 2009                        44.12%               57    Kenya 2003                             27.64%               98    Fiji 2009                            15.24%
  17     Ukraine 2008                           43.48%               58    Slovak Republic 2009                   27.64%               99    Mexico 2006                          15.14%
  18     Lithuania 2009                         43.12%               59    Samoa 2009                             27.52%               100   Dem. Rep. of Congo 2006              14.71%
  19     Moldova 2009                           42.98%               60    Venezuela 2006                         27.40%               101   Madagascar 2009                      14.61%
  20     Tonga 2009                             42.67%               61    El Salvador 2006                       27.27%               102   India 2006                           14.47%
  21     Latvia 2009                            41.70%               62    Georgia 2008                           27.08%               103   Kosovo 2009                          14.44%
  22     Jamaica 2005                           41.57%               63    Turkey 2008                            26.82%               104   Nicaragua 2006                       14.44%
  23     Gabon 2009                             41.34%               64    Bolivia 2006                           26.26%               105   Panama 2006                          14.24%
  24     Congo 2009                             40.40%               65    Algeria 2002                           25.47%               106   Macedonia 2009                       14.21%
  25     Guyana 2004                            40.37%               66    Honduras 2006                          25.46%               107   Burundi 2006                         14.07%
  26     Bahrain 2007 MBRF                      40.00%               67    Colombia 2006                          25.40%               108   Spain 2005                           13.81%
  27     Niger 2009                             38.67%               68    Benin 2009                             25.33%               109   CostaRica 2005                       13.41%
  28     Lebanon 2006                           37.96%               69    Czech Republic 2009                    25.20%               110   Swaziland 2006                       13.36%
  29     Jordan 2007 MBRF                       37.00%               70    Laos 2009                              25.00%               111   Liberia 2009                         13.33%
  30     Syria 2003                             36.33%               71    Malaysia 2002                          25.00%               112   Guinea Bissau 2006                   13.21%
  31     Paraguay 2006                          36.22%               72    Armenia 2009                           24.06%               113   Slovenia 2009                        13.04%
  32     BurkinaFaso 2009                       35.79%               73    Namibia 2006                           23.71%               114   Pakistan 2002                        12.76%
  33     Zambia 2002                            35.75%               74    Uruguay 2006                           23.51%               115   Guinea 2006                          12.56%
  34     Cameroon 2009                          35.26%               75    Botswana 2006                          22.22%               116   Peru 2002                            12.48%
  35     Qatar 2007 MBRF                        35.00%               76    Mauritania 2006                        22.03%               117   Portugal 2005                        12.39%
  36     Tajikistan 2008                        35.00%               77    Croatia 2007                           21.64%               118   Azerbaijan 2009                      12.37%
  37     Oman 2003                              34.63%               78    SriLanka 2004                          21.33%               119   Gambia 2006                          11.49%
  38     Poland 2009                            34.51%               79    Morocco 2004                           21.06%               120   Montenegro 2009                      11.21%
  39     Albania 2007                           33.88%               80    Mali 2003                              20.78%               121   Albania 2005                         10.45%
  40     Ecuador 2006                           33.13%               81    Bosnia and Herzegovina 2009            20.50%               122   Rwanda 2006                          10.38%
  41     Ivory Coast 2009                       32.32%               82    Bulgaria 2009                          20.14%               123   Uganda 2006                           9.24%
       *Footnote: Data are from two sources and caution must be used in interpretation and comparison      Data Source:             MBRF-PWC Report              World bank Enterprise Survey
       Source: Author’s calculations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                           | 7
Agenda          Overview


1 Prevalence of
   Skills Gaps
                    • What international experience tells us about the impact of
2 Impact on Firm
                     skills gaps on private sector firm performance
   Performance


3     Causes of
      Skills Gaps


4      Reducing
      Skills Gaps
International studies show skills gaps have a significant negative impact on
productivity, capital investment, and R&D
                                                                                                               Effect of Higher
                                                           Industry, Product Type,          Effect of Skills
   Effect of Skills Gaps on Productivity                Capacity Utilization, Innovation         Gap
                                                                                                                 Educational
                                                                                                                Qualifications
                                                                                             22.8% less
                                                    Produced quality product/service
   • A significant negative impact on                                                        productive
                                                                                              51% less
       productivity depending upon the              Producing considerably below capacity
                                                                                             productive
       industry, product type, level of             •Text
                                                    Leads in developing                                           5% more
       innovation, and capacity utilization         Products/Processes                                           productive
                                                    Manufacture of leather and leather       39.5% less           20% less
   • Dampen productivity in capital intensive       products                                 productive          productive
                                                    Manufacture of Fabricated Metal
       industries as well as labor intensive                                                 36.7% less           9.1% less
                                                    Products, Except Machinery and
                                                                                             productive          productive
                                                    Equipment
   • Lead to underutilization of capital, with      Manufacture of Machinery and             49.9% less
       firms operating below full capacity          Equipment Not Elsewhere Classified       productive
                                                    Manufacture of Office Machinery and      27.5% less
   • Global competitiveness suffers due to          Computers industry
                                                    Manufacture of Rubber and Plastic
                                                                                             productive
                                                                                             38.6% less
       lower productivity – For example, in the     Products                                 productive
       UK, foreign owned plants have higher         Manufacture of Wearing Apparel;                             10.2% more
       levels of productivity than British owned:   Dressing and Dyeing of Fur industry                         productive
       US-owned plants are 15% more                 Manufacture of Wood and Products of
                                                    Wood and Cork, Except Furniture;                            13.7% more
       productive; other foreign owned plants
                                                    Manufacture of Articles of Straw and                        productive
       are 14%                                      Plaiting Materials
                                                    Manufacture of Motor Vehicles,                                8.1% less
   • Reduce incentives to invest in capital         Trailers and Semi-trailers                                   productive
       and R&D due to complementarities             Manufacture of Machinery and                                  9.7% less
       between skilled labor and capital            Equipment Not Elsewhere Classified                           productive
                                                                                                                  16% less
                                                    Manufacture of Tobacco Products
                                                                                                                 productive




    Source: (Harris, Li et al. 2006)                           9                                                              | 9
Agenda          Overview


1 Prevalence of
   Skills Gaps


2 Impact on Firm
   Performance
                    • Impact of economic growth on skills
      Causes of     • The case for government intervention in skills formation
3
      Skills Gaps


4      Reducing
      Skills Gaps
This conclusion is further supported by rampant market failures observed
internationally that lead to underinvestment in human capital

Source of
Market Failure                   Key Areas of Failure


Poor
                      1         • Poor macroeconomic policy and unfavorable business environments: Technical skills accumulation requires sound macroeconomic
                                    management, high rates of investment, outward looking trade regimes, and open domestic markets
Macroeconomic
Policy                          • Misalignment of education and training system with economic development: The education and training system and policies must
                                    be aligned with industrial needs

                                • Overreliance on foreign direct investment and foreign technology: FDI cannot solely drive the industrial sector; Skills and
                                    capabilities of domestic competing and supplier firms must be upgraded as well



Insufficient
                      2         •   Externalities - The benefits of training investments may accrue to other parties

Individual                      •   Information gaps and uncertainty: Individuals may not know the future value of skills investments, the return on particular skills,
Investment                          and future skills needs

                                •   Risk aversion: Individuals may prefer more certain short term returns to available jobs

                                •   Lack of certification of skills acquired during enterprise training: This makes the investment in such training less attractive, since its
                                    value to other firms is reduced.

                                •   Capital market deficiencies: Individuals may not be able to finance their learning costs and foregone earnings, because capital
                                    markets lack the information and monitoring capacity

                                •   Labor market rigidities: Artificially compressed wage scales; unions or minimum wage legislation that raise wages above the market
                                    level, low employer demand for skilled labor; when pay and status are not linked to the attainment of qualifications may reduce the
                                    incentives of workers to invest in their own training (Research 1996)


      Source: (Acemoglu and Pischke 1996; Research 1996; Lall 1999; Ziderman 2003)

                                                                                                                                                                      | 11
Sources of
Market Failure         Key Areas of Failure

Education and
                   3   • Supply-Demand Informational Gaps: Lack of information on current and future skill trends in industry and demands from students
                           due to rapid technical and organizational change or government industrial policy
Training System
Misalignment           • Insufficient Funding: Capital market deficiencies in raising the funding for better standards

                       • Prohibitive Costs: High costs of educational services provided

                       • Low Teaching Standards and Curricula Irrelevancy: In the public sector training institutions, danger of bureaucratic and rigid
                           management, poor remuneration and inadequate incentives for trainers, lack of interaction with the market, and low standards
                           leading to irrelevant curricula, poor teaching and equipment, and an emphasis on abstract rather than practical training

                       • Lack of Quality Standards: In the private sector system, risks of variable and unsatisfactory standards in the absence of effective
                           monitoring
                   4   •   Inadequately educated workforce: Low absorptive capacity by poorly educated workers
Failure of Firms
to Invest in
                       •   Inadequately educated management: Low educational qualifications on the part of employers and managers who underestimate
Workforce                  the returns to training

                       •   Informational gaps to calculate training returns: Lack of appreciation of or information on the benefits of training, latest
                           technology, and skills in relevant activities

                       •   Lack of training capacity and needs assessment: Lack of training materials or teachers in-house or Inability to form efficient training
                           programs in line with changing skill and technology needs

                       •   Lack of private training providers: Lack of specialized institutions to provide appropriate training at reasonable cost or lack of
                           interactions between these institutions and enterprises

                       •   Cost Constraints: Lack of finance to cover costs of training.

                       •   Externalities: If trainees are likely to leave for better-paid jobs after training, a bias towards providing training in specific, non-
                           transferrable skills or decreased levels of training emerges (Acemoglu and Pischke 1996)

                       •   Low-skill production methods supported by poor economic policy: Lack of technological upgrading, with enterprises content to
                           stay with existing technologies, equipment, and skill levels exacerbated by policy that stifles competition and exposure to markets

                                                                                                                                                                | 12
In the Arab World, for example, higher education is facing several challenges
  starting from its underlying environment through to supply and consumption
                                                                 Education – Key Findings

                                                                                                                          Consumption and
         Environment, Funding and                                      Institutions
                                                                                                                        Related Beneficiaries
               Infrastructure                                      (Education Supply)
                                                                                                                        (Education Demand)

Big spenders on education in order of magnitude:      Universities account for at least 86% of the total    More females than males are enrolled in higher
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Morocco            number of students in higher education                education; Only five countries in the Arab World
                                                                                                            have more male students

Avg. regional expenditure per student is US$ 2,444,   Teaching is didactic, with no emphasis on students    Education is more developed in Jordan, Lebanon,
OECD countries average US$ 14,027 per student         becoming independent learner and critical thinkers    Libya, and the Palestinian Territories, where
                                                                                                            enrollment is near 40% or above
Many universities do not have sufficient              Universities that teach in Arabic have limited
institutional resources for teaching and research     choices regarding texts and other teaching material   The higher the degree level, the larger the
                                                                                                            proportion who study abroad: 5.7% at the BA level,
                                                      Current system does not reward faculty                13.0% at the MA level, and 34.4% at the Ph.D. level
Centralized educational systems are organized to
                                                      performance and full time engagement in
facilitate expansion rather than performance-
                                                      academia                                              The bigger education spenders in the region have
oriented systems with emphasis on quality
                                                                                                            higher quality domestic labor markets
                                                      Arab scholarly, scientific, and professional
Governments lack experience in policy and strategy    organizations operate at a low level of activity      Few partnerships between the private sector and
development as well as in planning and
                                                                                                            education institutions which produce graduates
management of higher education systems                Institutions rely on faculty members educated
                                                                                                            with new and adaptable skills and who possess the
                                                      abroad to enrich the education scene with a variety
                                                                                                            ability to continuously upgrade their skills
Leaders require accurate data to compare              of intellectual background and educational
institutions, promote more informed decision          practices
                                                                                                            There have been attempts to link higher education
making about programs, and formulate policies
                                                      100,000 faculty members in institutions of higher     to development and social issues but they center
                                                      education; 60% of them have PhDs; (40%) have          on public awareness campaigns rather than on key
Profit-oriented, private institutions are not
                                                      M.A.’s, but only a few (15.5% of both groups) hold    changes in the curriculum or the community
adequately accommodated in educational policy
                                                      professorial titles
and there are no governmental quality standards
                                                                                                                                   Legend

                                                                                                                   Favorable   Satisfactory   Unsatisfactory
       Source: Author’s analysis

                                                                                                                                                        | 13
Similarly, many of the features necessary for an innovation system typical of
knowledge-based economies in high and medium income countries is lacking

                                                                                                             Funds to bring
                                                      Commercialization
        Research Funds                                                                                        research to
                                     Research             Funds
                                                                               Development and                 consumers       Research Consumers
                                    Institutions
                                                                               Product Prototype           Linkages to bring        (Demand)
                                      (Supply)        Commercialization
       Research Linkages                                                                                      research to
                                                         Linkages
                                                                                                              consumers

                                                                                                                                            Research
      Corporate funds           Corporate R&D                                                              Entrepreneurs
                                                                                                                                           Consumers
                                                                     IP developers
       Seed VC, Angels                                                                                      Corporations       •           Academics and
                                  Universities                                                                                              Researchers
        Professional
                                                                                Corporate R&D             Industrial Funds
          Societies                                                                                                                    •     Business
                                 National labs          Technology
                                                     transfer agencies                                                                      Community
       Entrepreneurs                                                                 SME’s
                                                                                                                                   •        Government
        Govt. SciTech                                 Tech. transfer
          bodies                                          funds                                                                        •     The Public

     Govt. departments                                 Late VC, PE                                                                          •   Press

           Science
         foundations                                                            To bridge this lack of infrastructure,
                                                                                    several Arab countries have
                                                                                    launched industry clustering
                       Status                                                       initiatives. Examples include
                                                                                 Dubaiotech and the Qatar Science
      Missing           Weak        Existing                                            and Technology Park.


   Source: Adapted from DDIA R&D White Paper, 2004
                                                                                                                                                           | 14
In addition to market failures and changing skills demands, public budgets,
demographics, and skilling previous disadvantaged groups are key challenges
to high skill, knowledge-based economic development in the Arab World


                                Market Failures




             E&T systems failing to keep up
             with macroeconomic forces




                    Government budgets ↓
                                                              High skill,
                                                              innovation-based,
                                                              knowledge
                                                              economy
                           Demographic change and high
                           population growth rates




                     Lack of skills of disadvantaged groups




                                                                                  | 15
Agenda          Overview


1 Prevalence of
   Skills Gaps


2 Impact on Firm
   Performance


3     Causes of
      Skills Gaps
                    • Skills ecosystem approach to structuring a proactive response
       Reducing     • Systemic inefficiencies may stall knowledge-based economic development
4                   • Policy responses to reducing skills gaps based on international experience
      Skills Gaps
The skills ecosystem model, based on high skills environments such as Silicon
Valley, provides a useful conceptual and theoretical framework to summarize
the enabling factors and institutional players involved in skills formation


                                                             High skill ecosystem that supports
                                                            competitive advantage, innovation,
                                                                        and high wages




    Education and                               Firms                           Governments                      Individuals
    Training Providers
                                                Key Role                        Key Role                         Key Role
    Key Role                                    See comparative advantage       Vocational Education and         Invest in skills because
    Responsive delivery at all levels           through addressing skill        Training, employment, and        rewarding career
    that individuals and employers              development and business        industry policies that support   opportunities are available
    value                                       performance to generate         high skills strategy
                                                innovation and growth
    Typical Stakeholders                                                        Typical Stakeholders
    •Universities/schools                       Typical Stakeholders            • Training policy bodies
    •Training Organizations                     • A network of enterprises      • Development agencies
    •Industry forums/bodies                     • Industry bodies and unions    • Sector-specific agencies
    •Material/equipment suppliers               • Supply chains                 • Local government
    •Technical/industry experts                 • Regional clusters/networks
    •Research Centres
    •Centres of Excellence




   Source: Adapted from (Windsor and Alcorso 2008)

                                                                                                                                               | 17
Many countries in the Arab World are reaching the high skills equilibrium,
knowledge-based economic stage; yet many are at intermediate stages
                                                            10
                                                                                                                                                                            High Skills Equilibrium
                                                                                                                                 United Kingdom Germany
                                                             9                                                                             Ireland
 Employer Demand for higher, knowledge-intensive




                                                                                                                            Estonia                                   • Strong demand for high level skills
                                                   High
                                                                                                                                                Spain
                                                                                                                              Czech Republic          Hungary         • Skills formulation institutions and the
                                                                                                             Lithuania                              Korea, Rep.
                                                             8                                                   Latvia                         Portugal                 enabling environment work in tandem
       Knowledge Economy Index Ranking)




                                                                                                                           Slovak Republic           Greece           • Knowledge-based economies with
       skills (as proxied by the World Bank




                                                                                                                        Poland       Croatia
                                                                                                                           Chile      Bulgaria                           lower levels of skills gaps
                                                             7                                  United Arab Emirates Qatar
                                                                                                           Romania                 Uruguay
                                                                                                                   Bahrain        Malaysia      Costa Rica
                                                                                     Kuwait
                                                             6                  Brazil                                                       Serbia
                                                                                                          Russia                 Turkey
                                                   Medium




                                                                                               Saudi Arabia        Jordan Oman                 Mexico Africa
                                                                                                                                                  South
                                                                                                  Belarus                                                                      Very little research in
                                                             5                                                               Colombia Lebanon                              this area despite the massive
                                                                                                                         China                                              growth in these countries
                                                                                       Egypt                        Tunisia         Sri Lanka        Philippines
                                                                                                           Morocco                Botswana Azerbaijan
                                                             4
                                                                                                                                Bolivia             Vietnam
                                                                                                  Cape Verde                                          Indonesia
                                                                                                                      Syria    Honduras
                                                                                                                                              India
                                                                                                                           Guatemala         Swaziland
                                                             3                                                                 Kenya
                                                                                                             Algeria
                                                                                                                                                   Senegal
                                                                                                                                                   Uganda
                                                                                                                                              Pakistan
                                                                                                                                                         Ghana               Low Skills Equilibrium
                                                                                                                      Zambia  Yemen Tanzania
                                                                                                                                          Lesotho
                                                                                                                     Burkina
                                                             2                                                                                        Nepal            • Employers face few skill gaps in a
                                                   Low




                                                                                                                       Faso           Mozambique Cambodia
                                                                                                                                     Bangladesh
                                                                                                                                         Ethiopia           Eritrea       predominantly low skilled workforce
                                                                                                                                                  Rwanda
                                                                                                                                               Guinea
                                                                                                                                                                       • Little incentive to participate in
                                                             1                                                                                                            education and training and raise
                                                                                                                                                                          qualification levels and aspirations
                                                             0
                                                             0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%

                                                                        Low                        Medium                                    High
                                                                        % of firms with sufficient internal skills levels
                                                                   (1- % of firms reporting major or very severe skills gaps)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          | 18
International experience suggests several policy options for intervention in
training markets      Policy Options
                                Government            Government
Reason for Intervention         Subsidy of Training   Provision of Training   Complementary Policies

Externalities                                                                 None

Property rights (employer                                                                Levy-grant schemes
fear of poaching)

Market imperfections                                                                     Deal with sources of
(economic and social                                                                     imperfections if
policy distortion)                                                                       politically possible

Inadequate Firm-based                                                                    Build firm training
training                                                                                 capacity; levy-grant
                                                                                         schemes

Weak private training                                                                    Build up private training
provision                                                                                capacity

Create equal opportunity                                                                 Reduce subsidies to
                                                                                         trainees' peers, selective
                                                                                         scholarships
Disadvantaged groups                                                                     Targeted training
                                                                                         subsidies;
                                                                                         employment creation;
      Source: Ziderman (2003)                                                            income redistribution
                                                                                                         | 19
Traditional theories of skill formation provide some prescriptive guidance for
human capital development shedding light on how skills gaps can occur but
fall short due to challenges and changes brought on by macroeconomic forces
Theories                            Key Arguments/Approaches                               Takeaways

                                    • Look at effective institutional                      • High skills production systems are
                                        architecture and ways in which                       associated with competitiveness and
 Educationalist
                                        education and training is                            strong economies; but low skills
                                        delivered                                            alternatives may be necessary given
                                                                                             constraints
                                    • Education and training are investments               • Sufficiently high levels of general
                                    • Individuals/firms respond to individual incentives     education are required by the workforce
 Economics                              and optimization to determine training               for higher skill production
                                    •   When examining a country’s training system must
                                        look at level of general education, how much of    • Effective institutions are key elements of
                                        skills formation occurs in firms, regulation and     skills formation systems
                                        regulatory institutions
                                                                                           • There is no one ideal national education
                                    • Education provision,                                   and training system ; forms are shaped by
                                        organizational structure,
 Sociological                                                                                social, historical, and cultural, and
                                        industrial relations, and class                      organizational factors, as well as level of
                                        structure shape skills formation                     economic development

                                    • Policies and institutions combine                    • Without sufficient systemic incentives or in
                                        to create high skills systems                        the presence of labor market constraints
 Political Science                                                                           both individuals and firms underinvest in
                                                                                             education and training


     Source: Author’s analysis, (Ashton and Green 1996)

                                                                                                                                          | 20
Human capital requirements increase as countries develop, as industry
structures become more diversified and competitiveness oriented, and as
 firms move from smaller patriarchal family structures to larger size firms
Economic Development Phase and                       Key Government Economic                Firm-level Competitive Environment
Source of Competitiveness                            Policy Priorities                      and Innovation Capacity                  Education and Training Priorities

Middle Income Countries                              • Improvements in                      • Export manufacturing and           • Universal secondary education for literacy
• Investment-driven growth                                   infrastructure                     outsourced service exports             and numeracy, language, mathematics,
• High quality, technologically                      •       Regulatory enablers                of high value added goods              and science skills
    advanced, flexible                                       (customs, taxation,                and services                     •     Deepened vocational and technical
    production using imported                                company law) to allow          •   Technology/designs still               education for post-secondary technicians
    technology                                               global integration                 imported through licensing,      •     Life-long learning
•   Attraction of foreign capital                    •       Reduction of red tape and          JVs, FDI, and imitation          •     Enterprise-based training for SMEs
    and technology to support                                improved the legal system      •   Companies extend                 •     Private training provision
    economic growth                                  •       Development of local               capabilities more widely in      •     Develop managerial capacity
                                                             financial markets                  the value chain                  •     Strengthened training authority to
                                                                                                                                       administer skills development funds

    High income transition requires direct government involvement in fostering a high rate of innovation, through public as well as private investments in research and
             development, higher education, and improved capital markets and regulatory systems that support the start-up of high-technology enterprises.


High Income Countries                                • Emergence of world-class             • Companies innovate at the          • Highly developed education with high
• Innovation-driven growth                                   research institutions              world technology frontier,             rates of science-based learning in general
• High rate of innovation,                           •       Dynamic R&D) sector                develop unique product                 education
    adaptation, and                                          linking higher education           designs, sell globally           •     Technical education in engineering
    commercialization of new                                 and innovative firms           •   Low reliance on foreign                specializations
    technologies                                     •       Venture capital availability       technology                       •     Occupation-specific training provided
•   Production of innovative                         •       Improving supply of            •   Decentralized and flexible             privately, either within enterprises or
    products and services                                    scientists and engineers           organizational structures              through trainee-financed private training
•   Knowledge-based                                  •       Sophisticated demand                                                      providers
    economies that generate                                  conditions and intense                                              •     Complete professionalization of
    technological innovation                                 local competition                                                         management with a break from family
                                                                                                                                       orientation



          Source: (Porter, Sachs et al. 2002), (Bank 2004)

                                                                                                                                                                         | 21
•   For Further Information About This                                 ‫للمزيد من المعلومات عن هذا العرض التقديمي‬          •
    Presentation
                                                            ‫للحصول على العرض التقديمي الكامل لهذا العرض التقديمي‬
    To get a copy of the full presentation or to                       ‫يرجى االتصال بـ ويزلي شوالييه على العنوان‬
    discuss the findings, please contact Wes                                            wes.schwalje@tahseen.ae
    Schwalje wes.schwalje@tahseen.ae
                                                                          ‫• لالستفسار عن خدماتنا ولعرض أفكاركم علينا‬
•   For Inquiries About Our Services and
    Requests for Proposals                                ‫لالستفسار عن خدماتنا أو عرض أفكاركم علينا يرجى االتصال‬
                                                         ‫بنا عبر اإلنترنت باستخدام النموذج أدناه أو إرسال بريد إلكتروني‬
    To inquire about our services or submit a request                                       fikra@tahseen.ae ‫إلى‬
    for proposal, please contact us using the online
    form or send an e-mail to fikra@tahseen.ae
                                                         ‫• بالنسبة للمنظمات التي لديها اهتمام بالدخول في اتفاقيات شراكة‬
•   For Organizations Interested in Alliances                              ‫وفي تحالفات مع شركة تحسين لالستشارات‬

    We are interested in opportunities where our             ‫إننا مهتمون بالفرص التي يمكن من خاللها استخدام مهاراتنا‬
    technical skills and expertise can be used to
                                                                ‫وخبراتنا الفنية لتكميل أو لتنويع مهارات وخبرات شركائنا‬
    complement or diversify those of potential                                                      ّ
                                                          ‫المحتملين بما يمكن من السعي للحصول على تمويل حكومي أو‬
    partners to pursue specific government funding
    opportunities, commercial contracts, or RFPs. To
                                                              ‫عقود تجارية. لبدء نقاش حول الدخول في تحالف مع شركة‬
    begin a discussion about entering into an alliance    ‫تحسين لالستشارات يرجى االتصال بوليد العرادي على العنوان‬
    with Tahseen Consulting, please contact Walid                                       walid.aradi@tahseen.ae
    Aradi at walid.aradi@tahseen.ae
                                                                     ‫• بالنسبة للعاملين في الصحافة أو في وسائل اإلعالم‬
•   For Members of the Press or Media
                                                                                                 ّ
                                                          ‫لالستفسارات المقدمة من قبل وسائل اإلعالم يرجى االتصال بـ‬
    For media inquiries, please contact Wes Schwalje     wes.schwalje@tahseen.ae ‫ويـزلي شـوالييه على العنوان‬
    at wes.schwalje@tahseen.ae
How Skills Gaps Impact Firm Performance In The Arab World

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How Skills Gaps Impact Firm Performance In The Arab World

  • 1. How Skills Gaps Impact Firm Performance in the Arab World About Us Tahseen Consulting is an advisor on strategic and organizational issues facing governments, social sector institutions, and corporations in the Arab World. You can read more about our capabilities at tahseen.ae ▲ Public Sector The operational impacts of skills gaps on Arab companies Social Sector Corporate Responsibility CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of Tahseen Consulting is strictly prohibited www.tahseen.ae
  • 2. Agenda Overview • Factors affecting demand for skilled labor 1 Prevalence of • Global prevalence of skills gaps Skills Gaps • Presence of skills gaps in the Arab World • What international experience tells us about the impact of 2 Impact on Firm skills gaps on private sector firm performance Performance • Impact of economic growth on skills Causes of • The case for government intervention in skills formation 3 Skills Gaps • Skills ecosystem approach to structuring a proactive response Reducing • Systemic inefficiencies may stall knowledge-based economic development 4 • Policy responses to reducing skills gaps based on international experience Skills Gaps Abstract In the Arab World there is a poor match between regional human capital and the skills demanded by employers with many firms expressing concern that they face internal employee skills deficiencies that limit performance, a phenomenon that has been popularly labeled as a “skills gap.” Many countries in the Arab World rank amongst the countries facing the most severe skills gaps in the world. While several surveys in the Arab World have identified soft skills and more basic employability skills lacking in the workforce, there is a large empirical absence, both globally and in the Arab World, of studies regarding the impact of skills gaps on firm-level performance. This analysis will attempt to apply empirically driven international research to the case of the Arab World to determine the operational impacts of skills gaps on Arab companies. With the belief that companies and governments require more rigorous empirical evidence to translate management research into practices that solve organizational problems, the paper will conclude with suggestions on proactive strategies to close labor skills gaps to increase the competitiveness of key industries which face skills gaps. 2
  • 3. Expanding trade, technological change, and changing forms of work organization have increased the relative demand for skilled workers globally Expanding International Trade 1 • Trade has increased dramatically • Globalization increases the importance of skills rather than resources • Trade-induced flow of employees from importing, low skill, labor intensive 4 industries, to higher skill, export industries 2 Other factors Skill-biased • Decline in unionization Technological Change • Tinbergen’s Race: • Pairing skilled workers demand and supply of with capital raises different grades of labor Increasing Global productivity governed by trade and Demand for Skilled Labor • Globalization led to technical progress massive investment • FDI • Countries adopting technology from abroad Evolving Forms of Work Organization 3 • Firms embracing decentralized decision making, less hierarchy, and autonomy • Communication, decision making, social and problem solving skills are needed in addition to technical skills Source: Shankar, R. and A. Shah (2001), David H. Autor (1998), Ashton, D., F. Green, et al. (1999), Ashton, D. N. and J. Sung (2002) | 3
  • 4. These conclusions are supported by macroeconomic data showing the growth of skilled workers globally, international trade, and investment in fixed capital Evolution of Skilled Versus Unskilled Work Trade as a % of Global Domestic Product Gross Fixed Capital Formation Number of workers in millions Exports and imports as a % Glob. Dom. Prod. Investment in fixed capital in trillions 1,000 60 3,000 Investment in 900 950 960 960 58 920 fixed capital assets 2,715 891 2,500 800 56 Trade Growth 57 by enterprises, 57 2,4432,415 790 2% CAGR government and 700 741 Skilled Workers 2,223 54 2,000 households 600 653 6% CAGR 54 10% CAGR 1,928 52 500 1,500 1,639 52 50 400 457 1,358 420 Unskilled Workers 1,192 48 49 1,000 300 49 49 -.38% CAGR 48 1,041 928 200 46 500 100 155 160 138 146 177 171 171 44 131 126 102 0 42 0 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 2007 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 2009 Source: International Labor Organization, World Bank | 4
  • 5. In many countries, evidence points to an unmet quantitative demand for highly skilled workers, known as a “skills shortage,” as well as “skills gaps” in which firms face qualitative internal skills deficiencies that limit performance Skills Gaps Skills Shortage Skill Shortage Skills Gap Desired Quantity of Internal Workers Workforce Current With a Quantity of Skill Level Internal Particular Workers Workforce Skill With a Skill Level Required Particular Skill Available • Employers feel that their existing workforce has inadequate • Genuine lack of adequately skilled individuals available skill types/levels to meet their business objectives in the labor market with the type of skill being sought • New entrants to the labor market trained and qualified for • Employers unable to recruit staff with the skills they occupations but still lack a variety of the skills required are looking for at the going rate of pay 5 | 5
  • 6. Skills gaps are globally widespread with the Arab World, Latin American and Caribbean, and the Eurasian regions indicating the highest incidence Skills gaps are globally prevalent … … and appear to be getting worse Prevalence of Skills Gaps by Region % of firms indicating they face a major or very severe skills gap The World Bank Enterprise Survey, a global survey of firms with more than five 15.01% 24% employees in the manufacturing and services 23.98% sectors, indicates skills gaps are globally becoming a more frequent phenomena: 16.50% • Of 43,705 companies surveyed in 99 countries from 2006-2009, 26.7% indicated that a skills gap 20.29% is either a major or severe obstacle to the current 17.81% operations of their business 19.65% • Of 66,000 firms surveyed in 143 counties from 2002-2005, 14% of firms responded this way Middle East and North Africa Latin america and the Carribean • This represents a nearly 90% increase in firms Europe and Central Asia Africa indicating that they face a skills gap East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Source: Author’s calculations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey | 6
  • 7. Synthesizing data from the World Bank and regional reports, many of the Arab countries rank extremely high on a global ranking of skills gaps prevalence % of Total Firms Suveyed % of Total Firms Suveyed % of Total Firms Suveyed Rank Country and Survey Year Which Have a Major or Rank Country and Survey Year Which Have a Major or Rank Country and Survey Year Which Have a Major or Very Severe Skills Gap Very Severe Skills Gap Very Severe Skills Gap 1 Brazil 2009 73.03% 42 Oman 2007 MBRF 33.00% 83 Angola 2006 20.00% 2 Kuwait 2007 MBRF 68.00% 43 Chile 2006 32.06% 84 Bangladesh 2002 19.83% 3 Egypt 2007 MBRF 66.00% 44 Uzbekistan 2008 31.97% 85 Tanzania 2006 18.38% 4 Chad 2009 57.33% 45 Peru 2006 31.33% 86 Lebanon 2007 MBRF 18.00% 5 Belarus 2008 55.31% 46 China 2002 30.73% 87 Timor Leste 2009 18.00% 6 CapeVerde 2009 53.85% 47 Dominican Republic 2005 30.67% 88 Mongolia 2009 17.96% 7 Saudi Arabia 2007 MBRF 53.00% 48 Estonia 2009 30.40% 89 Mozambique 2007 17.95% 8 UAE 2007 MBRF 51% 49 Tunisia 2007 MBRF 30.00% 90 Afghanistan 2008 17.94% 9 Kazakhstan 2009 50.18% 50 Malawi 2009 30.00% 91 Ethiopia 2002 17.90% 10 Russia 2009 48.90% 51 Thailand 2004 29.96% 92 Serbia 2009 17.78% 11 Argentina 2006 48.35% 52 Egypt 2004 29.80% 93 Togo 2009 17.42% 12 Morocco 2007 MBRF 47.00% 53 Kyrgyz Republic 2009 29.36% 94 Sierra Leone 2009 17.33% 13 Romania 2009 46.21% 54 Guatemala 2006 29.31% 95 Lesotho 2009 17.22% 14 Algeria 2007 MBRF 45.00% 55 Vanuatu 2009 28.91% 96 Bhutan 2009 17.20% 15 Mauritius 2009 44.97% 56 Yemen 2010 28.72% 97 Ireland 2005 15.63% 16 Micronesia 2009 44.12% 57 Kenya 2003 27.64% 98 Fiji 2009 15.24% 17 Ukraine 2008 43.48% 58 Slovak Republic 2009 27.64% 99 Mexico 2006 15.14% 18 Lithuania 2009 43.12% 59 Samoa 2009 27.52% 100 Dem. Rep. of Congo 2006 14.71% 19 Moldova 2009 42.98% 60 Venezuela 2006 27.40% 101 Madagascar 2009 14.61% 20 Tonga 2009 42.67% 61 El Salvador 2006 27.27% 102 India 2006 14.47% 21 Latvia 2009 41.70% 62 Georgia 2008 27.08% 103 Kosovo 2009 14.44% 22 Jamaica 2005 41.57% 63 Turkey 2008 26.82% 104 Nicaragua 2006 14.44% 23 Gabon 2009 41.34% 64 Bolivia 2006 26.26% 105 Panama 2006 14.24% 24 Congo 2009 40.40% 65 Algeria 2002 25.47% 106 Macedonia 2009 14.21% 25 Guyana 2004 40.37% 66 Honduras 2006 25.46% 107 Burundi 2006 14.07% 26 Bahrain 2007 MBRF 40.00% 67 Colombia 2006 25.40% 108 Spain 2005 13.81% 27 Niger 2009 38.67% 68 Benin 2009 25.33% 109 CostaRica 2005 13.41% 28 Lebanon 2006 37.96% 69 Czech Republic 2009 25.20% 110 Swaziland 2006 13.36% 29 Jordan 2007 MBRF 37.00% 70 Laos 2009 25.00% 111 Liberia 2009 13.33% 30 Syria 2003 36.33% 71 Malaysia 2002 25.00% 112 Guinea Bissau 2006 13.21% 31 Paraguay 2006 36.22% 72 Armenia 2009 24.06% 113 Slovenia 2009 13.04% 32 BurkinaFaso 2009 35.79% 73 Namibia 2006 23.71% 114 Pakistan 2002 12.76% 33 Zambia 2002 35.75% 74 Uruguay 2006 23.51% 115 Guinea 2006 12.56% 34 Cameroon 2009 35.26% 75 Botswana 2006 22.22% 116 Peru 2002 12.48% 35 Qatar 2007 MBRF 35.00% 76 Mauritania 2006 22.03% 117 Portugal 2005 12.39% 36 Tajikistan 2008 35.00% 77 Croatia 2007 21.64% 118 Azerbaijan 2009 12.37% 37 Oman 2003 34.63% 78 SriLanka 2004 21.33% 119 Gambia 2006 11.49% 38 Poland 2009 34.51% 79 Morocco 2004 21.06% 120 Montenegro 2009 11.21% 39 Albania 2007 33.88% 80 Mali 2003 20.78% 121 Albania 2005 10.45% 40 Ecuador 2006 33.13% 81 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2009 20.50% 122 Rwanda 2006 10.38% 41 Ivory Coast 2009 32.32% 82 Bulgaria 2009 20.14% 123 Uganda 2006 9.24% *Footnote: Data are from two sources and caution must be used in interpretation and comparison Data Source: MBRF-PWC Report World bank Enterprise Survey Source: Author’s calculations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey | 7
  • 8. Agenda Overview 1 Prevalence of Skills Gaps • What international experience tells us about the impact of 2 Impact on Firm skills gaps on private sector firm performance Performance 3 Causes of Skills Gaps 4 Reducing Skills Gaps
  • 9. International studies show skills gaps have a significant negative impact on productivity, capital investment, and R&D Effect of Higher Industry, Product Type, Effect of Skills Effect of Skills Gaps on Productivity Capacity Utilization, Innovation Gap Educational Qualifications 22.8% less Produced quality product/service • A significant negative impact on productive 51% less productivity depending upon the Producing considerably below capacity productive industry, product type, level of •Text Leads in developing 5% more innovation, and capacity utilization Products/Processes productive Manufacture of leather and leather 39.5% less 20% less • Dampen productivity in capital intensive products productive productive Manufacture of Fabricated Metal industries as well as labor intensive 36.7% less 9.1% less Products, Except Machinery and productive productive Equipment • Lead to underutilization of capital, with Manufacture of Machinery and 49.9% less firms operating below full capacity Equipment Not Elsewhere Classified productive Manufacture of Office Machinery and 27.5% less • Global competitiveness suffers due to Computers industry Manufacture of Rubber and Plastic productive 38.6% less lower productivity – For example, in the Products productive UK, foreign owned plants have higher Manufacture of Wearing Apparel; 10.2% more levels of productivity than British owned: Dressing and Dyeing of Fur industry productive US-owned plants are 15% more Manufacture of Wood and Products of Wood and Cork, Except Furniture; 13.7% more productive; other foreign owned plants Manufacture of Articles of Straw and productive are 14% Plaiting Materials Manufacture of Motor Vehicles, 8.1% less • Reduce incentives to invest in capital Trailers and Semi-trailers productive and R&D due to complementarities Manufacture of Machinery and 9.7% less between skilled labor and capital Equipment Not Elsewhere Classified productive 16% less Manufacture of Tobacco Products productive Source: (Harris, Li et al. 2006) 9 | 9
  • 10. Agenda Overview 1 Prevalence of Skills Gaps 2 Impact on Firm Performance • Impact of economic growth on skills Causes of • The case for government intervention in skills formation 3 Skills Gaps 4 Reducing Skills Gaps
  • 11. This conclusion is further supported by rampant market failures observed internationally that lead to underinvestment in human capital Source of Market Failure Key Areas of Failure Poor 1 • Poor macroeconomic policy and unfavorable business environments: Technical skills accumulation requires sound macroeconomic management, high rates of investment, outward looking trade regimes, and open domestic markets Macroeconomic Policy • Misalignment of education and training system with economic development: The education and training system and policies must be aligned with industrial needs • Overreliance on foreign direct investment and foreign technology: FDI cannot solely drive the industrial sector; Skills and capabilities of domestic competing and supplier firms must be upgraded as well Insufficient 2 • Externalities - The benefits of training investments may accrue to other parties Individual • Information gaps and uncertainty: Individuals may not know the future value of skills investments, the return on particular skills, Investment and future skills needs • Risk aversion: Individuals may prefer more certain short term returns to available jobs • Lack of certification of skills acquired during enterprise training: This makes the investment in such training less attractive, since its value to other firms is reduced. • Capital market deficiencies: Individuals may not be able to finance their learning costs and foregone earnings, because capital markets lack the information and monitoring capacity • Labor market rigidities: Artificially compressed wage scales; unions or minimum wage legislation that raise wages above the market level, low employer demand for skilled labor; when pay and status are not linked to the attainment of qualifications may reduce the incentives of workers to invest in their own training (Research 1996) Source: (Acemoglu and Pischke 1996; Research 1996; Lall 1999; Ziderman 2003) | 11
  • 12. Sources of Market Failure Key Areas of Failure Education and 3 • Supply-Demand Informational Gaps: Lack of information on current and future skill trends in industry and demands from students due to rapid technical and organizational change or government industrial policy Training System Misalignment • Insufficient Funding: Capital market deficiencies in raising the funding for better standards • Prohibitive Costs: High costs of educational services provided • Low Teaching Standards and Curricula Irrelevancy: In the public sector training institutions, danger of bureaucratic and rigid management, poor remuneration and inadequate incentives for trainers, lack of interaction with the market, and low standards leading to irrelevant curricula, poor teaching and equipment, and an emphasis on abstract rather than practical training • Lack of Quality Standards: In the private sector system, risks of variable and unsatisfactory standards in the absence of effective monitoring 4 • Inadequately educated workforce: Low absorptive capacity by poorly educated workers Failure of Firms to Invest in • Inadequately educated management: Low educational qualifications on the part of employers and managers who underestimate Workforce the returns to training • Informational gaps to calculate training returns: Lack of appreciation of or information on the benefits of training, latest technology, and skills in relevant activities • Lack of training capacity and needs assessment: Lack of training materials or teachers in-house or Inability to form efficient training programs in line with changing skill and technology needs • Lack of private training providers: Lack of specialized institutions to provide appropriate training at reasonable cost or lack of interactions between these institutions and enterprises • Cost Constraints: Lack of finance to cover costs of training. • Externalities: If trainees are likely to leave for better-paid jobs after training, a bias towards providing training in specific, non- transferrable skills or decreased levels of training emerges (Acemoglu and Pischke 1996) • Low-skill production methods supported by poor economic policy: Lack of technological upgrading, with enterprises content to stay with existing technologies, equipment, and skill levels exacerbated by policy that stifles competition and exposure to markets | 12
  • 13. In the Arab World, for example, higher education is facing several challenges starting from its underlying environment through to supply and consumption Education – Key Findings Consumption and Environment, Funding and Institutions Related Beneficiaries Infrastructure (Education Supply) (Education Demand) Big spenders on education in order of magnitude: Universities account for at least 86% of the total More females than males are enrolled in higher Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Morocco number of students in higher education education; Only five countries in the Arab World have more male students Avg. regional expenditure per student is US$ 2,444, Teaching is didactic, with no emphasis on students Education is more developed in Jordan, Lebanon, OECD countries average US$ 14,027 per student becoming independent learner and critical thinkers Libya, and the Palestinian Territories, where enrollment is near 40% or above Many universities do not have sufficient Universities that teach in Arabic have limited institutional resources for teaching and research choices regarding texts and other teaching material The higher the degree level, the larger the proportion who study abroad: 5.7% at the BA level, Current system does not reward faculty 13.0% at the MA level, and 34.4% at the Ph.D. level Centralized educational systems are organized to performance and full time engagement in facilitate expansion rather than performance- academia The bigger education spenders in the region have oriented systems with emphasis on quality higher quality domestic labor markets Arab scholarly, scientific, and professional Governments lack experience in policy and strategy organizations operate at a low level of activity Few partnerships between the private sector and development as well as in planning and education institutions which produce graduates management of higher education systems Institutions rely on faculty members educated with new and adaptable skills and who possess the abroad to enrich the education scene with a variety ability to continuously upgrade their skills Leaders require accurate data to compare of intellectual background and educational institutions, promote more informed decision practices There have been attempts to link higher education making about programs, and formulate policies 100,000 faculty members in institutions of higher to development and social issues but they center education; 60% of them have PhDs; (40%) have on public awareness campaigns rather than on key Profit-oriented, private institutions are not M.A.’s, but only a few (15.5% of both groups) hold changes in the curriculum or the community adequately accommodated in educational policy professorial titles and there are no governmental quality standards Legend Favorable Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Source: Author’s analysis | 13
  • 14. Similarly, many of the features necessary for an innovation system typical of knowledge-based economies in high and medium income countries is lacking Funds to bring Commercialization Research Funds research to Research Funds Development and consumers Research Consumers Institutions Product Prototype Linkages to bring (Demand) (Supply) Commercialization Research Linkages research to Linkages consumers Research Corporate funds Corporate R&D Entrepreneurs Consumers IP developers Seed VC, Angels Corporations • Academics and Universities Researchers Professional Corporate R&D Industrial Funds Societies • Business National labs Technology transfer agencies Community Entrepreneurs SME’s • Government Govt. SciTech Tech. transfer bodies funds • The Public Govt. departments Late VC, PE • Press Science foundations To bridge this lack of infrastructure, several Arab countries have launched industry clustering Status initiatives. Examples include Dubaiotech and the Qatar Science Missing Weak Existing and Technology Park. Source: Adapted from DDIA R&D White Paper, 2004 | 14
  • 15. In addition to market failures and changing skills demands, public budgets, demographics, and skilling previous disadvantaged groups are key challenges to high skill, knowledge-based economic development in the Arab World Market Failures E&T systems failing to keep up with macroeconomic forces Government budgets ↓ High skill, innovation-based, knowledge economy Demographic change and high population growth rates Lack of skills of disadvantaged groups | 15
  • 16. Agenda Overview 1 Prevalence of Skills Gaps 2 Impact on Firm Performance 3 Causes of Skills Gaps • Skills ecosystem approach to structuring a proactive response Reducing • Systemic inefficiencies may stall knowledge-based economic development 4 • Policy responses to reducing skills gaps based on international experience Skills Gaps
  • 17. The skills ecosystem model, based on high skills environments such as Silicon Valley, provides a useful conceptual and theoretical framework to summarize the enabling factors and institutional players involved in skills formation High skill ecosystem that supports competitive advantage, innovation, and high wages Education and Firms Governments Individuals Training Providers Key Role Key Role Key Role Key Role See comparative advantage Vocational Education and Invest in skills because Responsive delivery at all levels through addressing skill Training, employment, and rewarding career that individuals and employers development and business industry policies that support opportunities are available value performance to generate high skills strategy innovation and growth Typical Stakeholders Typical Stakeholders •Universities/schools Typical Stakeholders • Training policy bodies •Training Organizations • A network of enterprises • Development agencies •Industry forums/bodies • Industry bodies and unions • Sector-specific agencies •Material/equipment suppliers • Supply chains • Local government •Technical/industry experts • Regional clusters/networks •Research Centres •Centres of Excellence Source: Adapted from (Windsor and Alcorso 2008) | 17
  • 18. Many countries in the Arab World are reaching the high skills equilibrium, knowledge-based economic stage; yet many are at intermediate stages 10 High Skills Equilibrium United Kingdom Germany 9 Ireland Employer Demand for higher, knowledge-intensive Estonia • Strong demand for high level skills High Spain Czech Republic Hungary • Skills formulation institutions and the Lithuania Korea, Rep. 8 Latvia Portugal enabling environment work in tandem Knowledge Economy Index Ranking) Slovak Republic Greece • Knowledge-based economies with skills (as proxied by the World Bank Poland Croatia Chile Bulgaria lower levels of skills gaps 7 United Arab Emirates Qatar Romania Uruguay Bahrain Malaysia Costa Rica Kuwait 6 Brazil Serbia Russia Turkey Medium Saudi Arabia Jordan Oman Mexico Africa South Belarus Very little research in 5 Colombia Lebanon this area despite the massive China growth in these countries Egypt Tunisia Sri Lanka Philippines Morocco Botswana Azerbaijan 4 Bolivia Vietnam Cape Verde Indonesia Syria Honduras India Guatemala Swaziland 3 Kenya Algeria Senegal Uganda Pakistan Ghana Low Skills Equilibrium Zambia Yemen Tanzania Lesotho Burkina 2 Nepal • Employers face few skill gaps in a Low Faso Mozambique Cambodia Bangladesh Ethiopia Eritrea predominantly low skilled workforce Rwanda Guinea • Little incentive to participate in 1 education and training and raise qualification levels and aspirations 0 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00% Low Medium High % of firms with sufficient internal skills levels (1- % of firms reporting major or very severe skills gaps) | 18
  • 19. International experience suggests several policy options for intervention in training markets Policy Options Government Government Reason for Intervention Subsidy of Training Provision of Training Complementary Policies Externalities None Property rights (employer Levy-grant schemes fear of poaching) Market imperfections Deal with sources of (economic and social imperfections if policy distortion) politically possible Inadequate Firm-based Build firm training training capacity; levy-grant schemes Weak private training Build up private training provision capacity Create equal opportunity Reduce subsidies to trainees' peers, selective scholarships Disadvantaged groups Targeted training subsidies; employment creation; Source: Ziderman (2003) income redistribution | 19
  • 20. Traditional theories of skill formation provide some prescriptive guidance for human capital development shedding light on how skills gaps can occur but fall short due to challenges and changes brought on by macroeconomic forces Theories Key Arguments/Approaches Takeaways • Look at effective institutional • High skills production systems are architecture and ways in which associated with competitiveness and Educationalist education and training is strong economies; but low skills delivered alternatives may be necessary given constraints • Education and training are investments • Sufficiently high levels of general • Individuals/firms respond to individual incentives education are required by the workforce Economics and optimization to determine training for higher skill production • When examining a country’s training system must look at level of general education, how much of • Effective institutions are key elements of skills formation occurs in firms, regulation and skills formation systems regulatory institutions • There is no one ideal national education • Education provision, and training system ; forms are shaped by organizational structure, Sociological social, historical, and cultural, and industrial relations, and class organizational factors, as well as level of structure shape skills formation economic development • Policies and institutions combine • Without sufficient systemic incentives or in to create high skills systems the presence of labor market constraints Political Science both individuals and firms underinvest in education and training Source: Author’s analysis, (Ashton and Green 1996) | 20
  • 21. Human capital requirements increase as countries develop, as industry structures become more diversified and competitiveness oriented, and as firms move from smaller patriarchal family structures to larger size firms Economic Development Phase and Key Government Economic Firm-level Competitive Environment Source of Competitiveness Policy Priorities and Innovation Capacity Education and Training Priorities Middle Income Countries • Improvements in • Export manufacturing and • Universal secondary education for literacy • Investment-driven growth infrastructure outsourced service exports and numeracy, language, mathematics, • High quality, technologically • Regulatory enablers of high value added goods and science skills advanced, flexible (customs, taxation, and services • Deepened vocational and technical production using imported company law) to allow • Technology/designs still education for post-secondary technicians technology global integration imported through licensing, • Life-long learning • Attraction of foreign capital • Reduction of red tape and JVs, FDI, and imitation • Enterprise-based training for SMEs and technology to support improved the legal system • Companies extend • Private training provision economic growth • Development of local capabilities more widely in • Develop managerial capacity financial markets the value chain • Strengthened training authority to administer skills development funds High income transition requires direct government involvement in fostering a high rate of innovation, through public as well as private investments in research and development, higher education, and improved capital markets and regulatory systems that support the start-up of high-technology enterprises. High Income Countries • Emergence of world-class • Companies innovate at the • Highly developed education with high • Innovation-driven growth research institutions world technology frontier, rates of science-based learning in general • High rate of innovation, • Dynamic R&D) sector develop unique product education adaptation, and linking higher education designs, sell globally • Technical education in engineering commercialization of new and innovative firms • Low reliance on foreign specializations technologies • Venture capital availability technology • Occupation-specific training provided • Production of innovative • Improving supply of • Decentralized and flexible privately, either within enterprises or products and services scientists and engineers organizational structures through trainee-financed private training • Knowledge-based • Sophisticated demand providers economies that generate conditions and intense • Complete professionalization of technological innovation local competition management with a break from family orientation Source: (Porter, Sachs et al. 2002), (Bank 2004) | 21
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