This document discusses the challenges of predicting the impact of SEO. It notes that predicting keyword volume and click-through rates is impossible due to constantly changing factors like news, user search behavior, and Google's algorithm. Specifically, it outlines how search volume can be impacted by external events and changes in how users search. Click-through rates are also difficult to predict due to variables like ad placements, device and location. The document concludes that while SEO metrics like rankings, traffic and conversions can be improved over time through testing and optimization, precisely predicting the impact of SEO is impossible given the many unknown variables that influence user behavior and search engine results.

1. Predicting impact of
SEO
Wil Reynolds
Associate
@wilreynolds

2. @wilreynolds
Makes sense

3. 3
@wilreynolds
Keyword Volume (x)
Click Through Rate (x)
Conversion Rate (x)
Conversion Value
ROI

4. @wilreynolds

5. @wilreynolds
Keyword Volume + Cost

6. @wilreynolds
Multiplied By

7. @wilreynolds
Click Through Rate

8. @wilreynolds
Multiplied By

9. @wilreynolds
Conversion Rate

10. @wilreynolds
Multiplied By

11. @wilreynolds
Conversion Value

12. 12
@wilreynolds
33,000 Searches (x)
1.04 CTR @ #10
343.2 Visitors

13. 13
@wilreynolds
343.2 Visitors (x)
.18% conv. rate (x)
.62 Conversions

14. 14
@wilreynolds
.62 Conversions/mo
(x) 12 months
7.5 Conversions @
$150k = $1,125,000

15. @wilreynolds
You Us

16. 16
@wilreynolds
Easy, right?

17. @wilreynolds
Problem, predicting
search volume and CTR is
impossible

18. @wilreynolds

19. 19
@wilreynolds
#1 – Search Volume

20. @wilreynolds
Impacted by News
Fall out of Favor
Change in how we search
Google gets Smarter
Google Changes Behavior

21. @wilreynolds
News

22. @wilreynolds
Fall out of Favor

23. @wilreynolds
Fall out of Favor

24. @wilreynolds
Change in how we search

25. @wilreynolds
Google Gets Smarter

26. @wilreynolds
Google Changes Behavior

27. 27
@wilreynolds
#2 – Click Through Rate

28. @wilreynolds
Carousel
Google’s Comparison Ads
Mobile Changes
PPC + SEO impacts CTR

29. @wilreynolds
Carousel

30. @wilreynolds

31. @wilreynolds

32. @wilreynolds

33. @wilreynolds

34. @wilreynolds

35. @wilreynolds
PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

36. @wilreynolds
PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

37. 37
@wilreynolds
“SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand)
& rises by 125% (non-brand)
When a PPC ad is also on the SERP”
-SEER Study 2013

38. @wilreynolds
Tale of 2 searches

39. 39
@wilreynolds
Search #1
“SEO Company”

40. 40
@wilreynolds
7 – Philly
2 – National
1 – Review
0 - Atlanta

41. 41
@wilreynolds
Search #2
First search
“Things to do in Atlanta”
Second search
“SEO Company”

42. 42
@wilreynolds
Impact
CTR?

43. @wilreynolds
Amazon, Trusted + Prime

44. @wilreynolds
Get more branded search?
Probably get more rankings

45. 45
@wilreynolds
Cut that TV campaign,
rankings might slide…

46. @wilreynolds
Mobile Search changes
1 – How we search
2 – What we see (vs Desktop)

47. @wilreynolds

48. @wilreynolds
Impact
On
CTR?
(Call + Map)

49. @wilreynolds

50. @wilreynolds
How confident are you NOW?

51. 51
@wilreynolds
• Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop?
• Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW?
• Is your PPC ad showing?
• Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile?
• Is that person in your circles?
• Have they searched for a different city before?
• Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured?
• Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query,
which increased your rank later for certain people but not others?
• Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos?
• Have they been to your site before?
• Are branded competitors moving up?
• Is Google launching a test?
• Where is the person located, was location detection accurate?
• Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?

52. @wilreynolds
Each of those questions
impacts CTR, increasing
complexity, decreasing
confidence in CTR models.

53. 53
@wilreynolds
Predicting CTR w/ any
degree of confidence is
impossible
making predicting impact
reckless

54. @wilreynolds
I can give you a number,
I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it
90% of the time

55. 55
@wilreynolds
Have you ever been @ a store
and did a search to compare
price?
Then go to another store?
Or Buy online?

56. @wilreynolds
Online Leads to Offline

57. @wilreynolds
Build content high in the funnel
Probably get more conversions

58. 58
@wilreynolds
If we can get content on
getting a checking account
at 16, then we have a higher
chance to rank when that
16 year old does a search
for “checking account”.

59. @wilreynolds

60. @wilreynolds
“If we can be there at every step
of the customer journey, they’ll
know our brand, we’ll get higher
CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”

61. @wilreynolds
I propose we look to get better…
EVERY month, than we were last
month (rankings, traffic, conv.)
Theory + Implement + Analyze
Tweak, Improve, Measure, Win.