Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

All roads lead to rome final

91 views

Published on

This is a hard work for route development concerning Roma Airport, addressing 50 ROUTES

Published in: Business
  • Login to see the comments

  • Be the first to like this

All roads lead to rome final

  1. 1. All Roads Lead To Rome By: Mohammed Salem Awadh Aviation Consultant Date of Issue: 17 Aug 2020 Predicting Traffic Passengers Flow for 50 Routes from Rome Airport (FCO)
  2. 2. 22 All Roads Lead To Rome Predicting Rome Hub – Traffic Passengers (2020) Date of Issue: 17 Aug 2020 Dears, Since about 8 years, we published a paper concerning forecasting and seasonality, which really a hard work https://www.slideshare.net/wings_of_wisdom/a- multiplicative-time-series-model The work is not finish yet, we move further to implement a new concept, (rotational and displacement approach), for a short term forecasting. https://www.slideshare.net/wings_of_wisdom/airport-forecasting-100-issues
  3. 3. 33 Today, it is a question of quality and productivity, Based in which field we are, In academic field, we are started to address ideas and concentrated on the method, reference, and the way to published to become a referred paper. However, in real life, we have to meet the targets in terms of a very short limited time, to support and to take the necessary action. So why R-square represents the best fit, If we look to Add Trend Line in XLS, we can see this factor used widely in most implemented models. On the line of that, we examine the productivity term about Rome airport (50 Routes) for 2020, which gives a clear view for their seasonality, based on three years database. Hope to enjoy Mohammed Salem Awadh Aviation Consultant All Roads LeadTo Rome verybody talking about recovery / period of aviation industry due to Corona, which take L shape, but the right phrase to express that, is Back To Norms. A close look to the graph of L shape, we notice that the new graph move downward by a certain displacement (Displacement Factor). Keeping the same trend of the previous forecast. Back To Norms: Most of the business may define by a certain normal pattern (here seasonality) which reflects by normal shocks, that repeated in the future. This led us to the word trend/predicting/ forecasting. For trend analysis, there are three possible outcomes: positive trend, stable (leveling) and negative trend. In the time of corona crisis, the best outcome will be leveling (Zero Growth), i.e how far we are from the previous year. It is not Y.O.Y,it is define the seasonality level and compare the effected period with the proposed value from the seasonality patterned. Which will show the gap from the Norms. Off course by the time the gap, become narrow and narrow until reach a complete recovery.
  4. 4. 44 2020
  5. 5. 55 FCO-ALGFCO-AMSRoute
  6. 6. 66 FCO-ARNFCO-ATHFCO-ATL
  7. 7. 77 FCO-AUHFCO-BEYFCO-BRS
  8. 8. 88 FCO-BRUFCO-BUDFCO-CAG
  9. 9. 99 FCO-CAIFCO-CDGFCO-CMN
  10. 10. 1010 FCO-CPHFCO-DUBFCO-DXB
  11. 11. 1111 FCO-FRAFCO-GOAFCO-GVA
  12. 12. 1212 FCO-HAMFCO-HELFCO-HKG
  13. 13. 1313 FCO-ICNFCO-JFKFCO-KBP
  14. 14. 1414 FCO-LGWFCO-LISFCO-LYS
  15. 15. 1515 FCO-MADFCO-MANFCO-MIA
  16. 16. 1616 FCO-MLAFCO-MRSFCO-MUC
  17. 17. 1717 FCO-NAPFCO-NCEFCO-NRT
  18. 18. 1818 FCO-OLBFCO-ORYFCO-OSL
  19. 19. 1919 FCO-PMOFCO-PRGFCO-SAW
  20. 20. 2020 FCO-SUFFCO-SVOFCO-SVQ
  21. 21. 2121 FCO-TRSFCO-TUNFCO-TLS
  22. 22. 2222
  23. 23. 2323 08 Jun 2020 Hello Mohammed I hope you are keeping safe and well. I am followingup to ensure you received my email lastweek regardingthe results of the Global CEO Excellence Awards 2020,hosted by CEO Monthly. On behalf of CEO Monthly, I am delighted to confirmthat you have been awarded: Aviation Business Leader of the Year (Arabian Peninsula): Mohammed Hadi How you were selected: Our in-houseresearch team conducted independent research to create a casefileon your behalf. The casefile was builtfollowing investigationsinto publicdomain sources which were used to determine the performance, achievements and contributions of each nominee. You were also encouraged to provide supportingmaterials in the form of our supportingevidence and peer review questionnaire,but this wasn’t mandatory. Once finalized,the filewas presented to our judgingpanel for their consideration. To move successfully from nominee to awardee there must be evidence of expertise within a given field,dedication to customer service and clientsatisfaction with an ongoing commitment to excellence and innovation. I hope you're pleased with the results and I look forward to hearingback from you. Kind regards, Katherine Benton | Awards Executive | CEO Monthly Available: Officehours Wednesday through Friday 9am – 5:00pm GMT Tel: +44 (0) 203 970 0032 Address: 2nd Floor,Suite F, The Maltsters,1-2 Wetmore Road, Burton-on-Trent, Staffordshire,DE14 1LS

×