Predicting Global Air Cargo 2020
CTK is stand for Air Cargo Tonne Kilometers
And it is the main unit to define Air Cargo demand in Aviation
Annual CTKs Forecast:
Really, it is hard to fit and forecast CTKs at 2020, as 2018
input data is higher than 2019. Therefore, the best way is to
focus on 2017 and 2019 and keeping 2018 with minimum errors, provided that the pre-set target
should be positive. In spite of poor performance for Global Air Cargo at 2019, but Corona crises
boost the activities of Air Cargo in 2020. Whence we arrange the data, the best way to set up the
annual target and minimize the data discrepancy, is to address the data by two trend models using the
concept of 12 rolling months.
First – General Trend Model using the concept of Straight Line equation – defining general trend.
Second – Most Recent Data Trend Model Using a Polynomial Model – Second-degree equation.
This reflects the impact of most recent data on the path of general trend. The mid-point is the most
convenient forecast annual result at Dec 2020. So as long as the gap between two models is small, the
more accurate approaching value for setting annual target otherwise we have to select the half way
distance between two extreme targets of these two models provided that Dec 2020 > Dec 2019.
Scenario 1: Preset AnnualTarget (Dec 2020) = CTKs = 211 (billion).
Scenario 2: Optimum Solution. 2020 = CTKs = 246 (billion). (Recommend)
By: Mohammed Salem Awad
Data source: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-