3. China GDP Growth Trend
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Knoema
“At present, China’s economy has entered a state of new normal – the
gear of growth is shifting from high speed to medium to high speed.”
--- Li Keqiang, Premier of China, World Economic Forum, Davos 2015
4. Challenges For China
• Ensure Sustained Economic Growth
– Create new domestic demand
– Ensure cost effectiveness for international trade
– Focus on Africa
• Assume A Bigger Role In Global Affairs
– Create secure, cost effective alternate route for energy and trade
– Create large economic block on its western periphery
– Establish strong influence in Africa
6. Western Development Strategy
Initiated in 1999-2000
1. Development of infrastructure
2. Enticement of foreign investment
3. Focus on ecological protection
4. Promotion of education
5. Retention of talent
As of 2006, a total of 1 trillion yuan has been spent building
infrastructure in western China
The combined GDP of
the western regions
reached 3.33 trillion
yuan in 2005,
compared with 1.66
trillion yuan in 2000
7. One Belt One Road Initiative
China – Pakistan
China – Indonesia
China – B’ Desh – India
- Myanmar
China – Mangolia - Russia
New Eurasian Land Bridge
China – Central
Asia – West Asia
9. CPEC Projects
Coal Mining /Power plant
Hydro
Wind
Source
Sector Est Cost in $ Bln
Energy 33.79
Road 5.9
Rail 3.69
Mass Transit in Lahore 1.6
Gwadar Port 0.66
China Pakistan Fiber Optics 0.04
Total 45.69
Coal Mining /Power plant
Hydro
Wind
10. China – SS Africa Rising Trade
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Share of China in SSA's total trade Share of SSA in China's total trade
Source: World Bank
2004: $ 15 Bn
2015: $170 Bn
11. Direct Opportunities
Freight Forwarding / Customs Clearance Services
Seaport, Airport, Dryport Operations
Bulk Terminal Operations
Marine Haulage
Cross Border / Domestic Logistics
Warehousing & Value Added Services
Manufacturing Activity In Proposed Economic Zones
12. Coal Logistics
Proposed Coal Power Projects MW
Estimated
Coal Consumption
Sahiwal, Huaneng Shandong 1,320 5,184,168
Muzafargarh 1,320 5,184,168
Thar Engro 660 2,592,084
Thar Other 1,320 5,184,168
Port Qasim 1,320 5,184,168
Gwadar 300 1,178,220
Total 6,240 24,506,976
15. Indirect Opportunities
Foreign Direct Investment
Formation of International Alliances
Rise in Aggregate Domestic Demand
Growth in Manufacturing Sector
Growth in Fisheries & Agri Sectors
Improvement in Productivity
Incremental 2-3% GDP Growth
17. Grabbing A Share Of The Pie
• Two Way Transit Transportation
• Trucks vs Freight Train
• Domestic Trucking & Warehousing
• International Shipping & Freight Forwarding
• Supply of Raw materials
• Supply of Finished Goods
• Services
No Legislation To Ensure Market Share For Local Businesses
18. Handling Coal Logistics
1.5 – 2.0 Million Tons p.a.
By Road?
• Pollution
• Truck Availability
• Congestion
• Adherence to Standards
– Safety
– Traffic laws
– Highway deterioration
By Rail?
• Capital Availability
• Railway Tracks
• Rolling Stock Availability
– Quantity
– Quality
• Impact of Circular Debt
• Impact On Passenger Trains
• Pollution
• Efficiency and Effectiveness
19. TIR Carnet
• Pakistan signed TIR Carnet in 2015
• Cross border movement of trucks across all
signatory countries
• Strict conditions,
– financial guarantees,
– vehicle quality
• Iran and Turkey are Biggest Players
20. Ensuring Employment For Locals
• What share of jobs will go to Pakistanis ?
– Managerial
– Engineering
– Skilled
– Unskilled
• What share will go to Baloch people?
– Number & Type Of Jobs
– Educate / Upgrade / Elevate
– Sense Of Deprivation / Alienation
21. Legislation
• Directing Opportunities Towards Local
Businesses
• Guaranteeing Employment For Locals
• Ensuring Use Of Locally Available Raw
Materials
• Transparency
