1. GUERRILLA
LARGE SCALE
PORTFOLIO
PLANNING
@ziobrando

2. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta

3. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD

4. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD #Developer

5. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD #Developer
#Coach

6. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD
#Agile
#Developer
#Coach

7. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD
#Agile
#Developer
#Coach
#Facilitator

8. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD
#Agile
#Developer
#EventStorming
#Coach
#Facilitator

9. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD
#Agile
#Developer
#EventStorming
#Coach
#Facilitator
#Consultant

10. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD
#Agile
#Lean
#Developer
#EventStorming
#Coach
#Facilitator
#Consultant

11. About me
@ziobrando
I do something else instead
@ziobrandoAbout me
avanscoperta
#DDD
#Agile
#Lean
#Entrepreneur
#Developer
#EventStorming
#Coach
#Facilitator
#Consultant

12. THE ANTAGONIST
The quintessential stereotype

15. OUR HERO

17. I am a certified X-Wing Fighter PilotTM
Trust me!

19. Too obvious

20. WE NEED A
BETTER HERO
Ladies Gentlemen, let me introduce you Mr…

21. Drummer with Nirvana
Singer Guitar with Foo
Fighters
Plus amazing appearances
(QoTS)
Cancelled a gig to bring the
daughter to a party
Didn’t cancel a show when he
broke his leg on stage.

23. THE DARK SIDE
OF CAPACITY
PLANNING
SOMETHING REALLY BASIC: JUST IN
CASE

24. The setting
• Large organisations
• Multiple teams
• Many concurrent projects
• Shared portions of the
codebase

25. Our resources

26. Empire’s capacity planning
I need a fixed story-point/man-day
ratio in order to convert the
estimation into FTE1s, so that I can
plan projects at full capacity.
FTE = Full Time Equivalent. A unit of cost traditionally abused in the empire

27. Empire’s capacity planning
I would be happy to get rid of this
agile stuff and just get Guaranteed
Dates of Delivery

28. My resources
Risk
management?

29. Rigid dress code
Predictable salary
Predictable value
Excel-level replaceability

30. Empire’s capacity planning
The business is growing so that I
need to hire more developers in
order to catch the new
opportunities
FTE = Full Time Equivalent. A unit of cost traditionally abused in the empire

31. My resources
* Fred Brooks …1975
Nine women can’t make a
baby in one month*

32. Our goal is to make 9 babies
(projects) in 6 months!
That’s the power of the force!

33. We must have parallel projects

34. THE UNTOLD
QUESTION
It’s still wired in Kahneman’s System One

35. I doubled the number of
developers.
Why the S*th can’t I double
productivity?

36. It’s not about
individuals, it’s
about the bands

37. It’s about team’s capacity
-Ramp-up time
-Domain knowledge
-Good teams have a
style
-Mastery of key practices

38. It’s about system capacity
-Teams should be able to
deliver independently
-1 cross functional team
-1 backlog
-1 product owner
That’s pretty much agile by the book

39. But in the empire…
• Large organisations
• Multiple teams
• Many concurrent projects
• Shared portions of the
codebase

40. But in the empire…
• Large organisations
• Multiple teams
• Many concurrent projects
• Shared portions of the
codebase
•Teams can’t deliver by
themselves

41. Cross Functional?
The larger the organisation, the more the idea
of Cross-Functional teams becomes a fairytale.

42. THE FORCE
DOESN’T WORK
What cannot be seen cannot be
improved

43. Unfortunately
• Large organisations
• Multiple teams
• Many concurrent projects

44. Unfortunately
• Large organisations
• Multiple teams
• Many concurrent projects
•Teams can’t deliver by
themselves

45. Above the surface…
Project #1
8 weeks
Project #1
4 weeks
Team
Alpha
Team
Tango
QA
Integration
team
Project #1:
4 weeks
Project #1:
2 weeks
January February March
Project #1:
3 weeks

46. Above the surface…
Project #1
8 weeks
Project #1
4 weeks
Team
Alpha
Team
Tango
QA
Integration
team
Project #1:
4 weeks
Project #1:
2 weeks
January February March
Project #1:
3 weeks
… and below

47. Above the surface…
Project #1
8 weeks
Project #1
4 weeks
Team
Alpha
Team
Tango
QA
Integration
team
Project #1:
4 weeks
Project #1:
2 weeks
January February March
Project #1:
3 weeks
… and below
PO
Clear business goal
Visible team capacity
Supporting goals,
not so visible team capacity
often, conflicting ownership

48. fairly common setup
Frontline teams
Service Teams
With no cycles, hopefully

49. The problem looks like….
Dependent activities pile up in some teams
more than others.
Frontline teams experience delays from
service and platform teams —> extra
management rework
Platform Service are burdened with
growing incoming requests

50. My resources

51. My resourcesOur backlog is too full!

52. My resourcesOur backlog is too full!
Our is overloaded too!!

53. Ours too !!
My resourcesOur backlog is too full!
Our is overloaded too!!

54. Ours too !!
My resourcesOur backlog is too full!
Our is overloaded too!!
You haven’t
seen mine!

55. Same
problem

56. Show the problem
-Find a way to visualise
investigate the system
constraint —> the real team
capacity
-Put key stakeholders in the same
room and co-create the
corresponding model

58. Guess where…

59. Guess where…

61. Whoops!
-Once the constraint is visible, we
can do sensible planning around
that.

62. Once the constraint is visible…

63. Once the constraint is visible…

64. The empire view
Heavily unbalanced system
Many idle resources are not
producing value
Adding more resources to the
system isn’t really improving the
system

65. Theory of constraints
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

66. There’s no 100%
-Non bottleneck resources
shouldn’t be allocated 100%
- …or they’ll create more mess and interruptions
around the bottleneck
-Bottleneck resources shouldn’t
be allocated 100% either
- They’re humans
- ripple effects are more expensive then slack.

67. ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

68. Empire ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

69. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

70. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

71. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

72. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

73. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
punish the bottleneck
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

74. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
punish the bottleneck
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

75. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
punish the bottleneck
Recruit more people
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

76. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
punish the bottleneck
Recruit more people
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

77. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
punish the bottleneck
Recruit more people
The constraint is still there,
only worse
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

78. Empire
Hide the system
constraints
Overload the bottleneck
punish the bottleneck
Recruit more people
The constraint is still there,
only worse
ToC
Identify the constraint
Exploit the bottleneck
Subordinate the system to
the constraint
Elevate the constraint
identify the new constraint

79. I played in Nirvana
and in Foo Fighters

80. I played in Nirvana
and in Foo Fighters
But NOT at the
SAME time!!

81. A CLOSER LOOK
AT COSTS
What cannot be seen cannot be
improved

82. A simplified view
costs accumulate
during development
phases apparently small
or no cost in
waiting to release
Revenues pop in
(minus operations)

83. Cost of delay
Costs go down
during development
(apparently) no
cost in waiting
to release
Revenues pop in
(minus operations)
End of period
Cost of
delay

84. Putting costs together
It’s just man_days *
average_salary.
Easy.

85. Overall…

86. But if we mess it up…

87. My resources
We’ll never
finish that!

88. A CLOSER LOOK
TO VALUE
Can you control that?

89. Problem solving
Does it happen in working
hours only?
Can you relate that to
timesheet?

90. Learning
Does it happen in working
hours only?
Can you relate that to
timesheet?

91. There’s no direct linear
connection between cost
value
Unless we want to destroy it

92. Interruptions
While working on different projects they’re
disruptive or ineffective
They’re valuable while working on the same
one

93. Dependencies
Are they the root of all evil?
What about self-inflicted
mandatory dependencies?

94. Can’t solve the problem
-Without allowing for some
duplication
-Without putting architecture
under scrutiny
-Without allowing some
heterogeneity

95. Estimations
An experienced agile team
can be pretty good estimating
their own activity

96. Estimations
The same team is helpless
estimating activities
depending on somebody else

97. Estimations
In corporate scenarios, the
part which is out of control
could easily get over 50%
… yep, talking about #noestimates

98. Unfortunately, one of
our key resources quit

99. Unfortunately, one of
our key resources quit
Unfortunately

100. Turnover
Turnover is a major disruptive
force
It’s not bad luck.

101. It’s learning

102. Put the WiP under control
Remember the old…
stop starting, start
finishing?

103. KEEP THE WIP
SMALL
That’s the real ‘corporate-level’ force

104. As you said… Nine women
can’t make a baby in one
month.

105. Oh c’mon…!

106. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JozAmXo2bDE

108. It’s viable
-Build around the learning
-create a shared (temporary) context
-build together a vision
(#UserStoryMapping,
#EventStorming)
-pride and ownership are your friends

109. Remember the old talks
Software development is a
learning process
Working code is a side effect
Still valid at this scale too

110. THE DARK SIDE
OF HR

111. Rigid dress code
Predictable salary
Predictable value
Excel-level replaceability

112. Rigid dress code
Predictable salary
Predictable value
Excel-level replaceability
What about TALENT?

113. Talent cannot easily be
replaced
Replaceability is for piano-
bar, not for great bands
Can you name a great band
with continuous turnover?
Can you name a band that
outsourced?
* …well Dave hasn’t really said that ;-)

115. A losing game
If you’re not working to
attract retain talent,
then you’re actively
working to lose talent

116. WRAP IT UP

117. The hard way
Being counterintuitive means that you’ll
have to fight for the basics
Management with no specific IT
background is very likely to blow it.
IT background is no guaranteed recipe
for success either

118. Can’t solve invisible
problems
Make the system constraint visible
Make the implicit goals visible
Make the system constraint visible
Make the implicit goals visible

119. Competing goals
Competition on key
resources is poisonous
Please STOP it
(including the invisible part: bonuses etc.)

120. There is no 100%
Slack is good
think twice before throwing
in resources,
then think again

121. Not a process only
It is an ecosystem, not a factory
HR is part of the problem and
of the solution
Talent Pride
are your friends

122. Dependencies
are making the problem
harder
It’s an architecture
governance problem too

123. Ecosystem
it is always an ecosystem
whether you like it or not
ignoring this, just places yours
at the lower end of the spectrum

124. THANKS
alberto.brandolini@avanscoperta.it
@ziobrando
Special thanks to @papachrismatts for (re)opening my eyes at ALE 2015 Sofia
www.infoq.com/presentations/theory-constraints-portfolio

125. REFERENCES
http://www.infoq.com/presentations/theory-constraints-portfolio